What should NZ do about Iran? Russia? China? Israel? Australia? America? UK? The Pacific?
As we enter 2023, the geopolitical shock waves will simply get worse and larger.
Add global recession, war, Covid and environmental collapse together and we face intense pressures caused far from our shores.
Mordor rises while the Shire shivers.
We are going to need firm positions on some difficult issues while upholding our ‘friend to all, enemy to none’ values.
Here are some thoughts.
Iran?
We were forced to pull our punches because some dickhead rich Instagram Influencers had been kidnapped by the Iranian regime, but now we’ve had them freed, we really have no choice but to offer something far more critical of the Iranian Theocracy and symbolic.
The current sanctions against regime leaders is a fine start, but I think we have an obligation to do far more. Let’s not forget that this Islamic Theocracy that is so repressive wouldn’t have existed in the first place if the West hadn’t induced a coup to rob the Iranians of their democratically elected Government. We have an obligation to go beyond mere sanctions and we really need to commit to a far larger symbolic gesture. We should be considering allowing 100 Iranian Women to be given refugee status alongside tertiary education scholarships and wrap around services. The Iranian Community is large enough to help out with this and we should make the decision in conjunction with them.
Russia?
While NATO has encroached, while the West helped destabilise the Donbas and Ukraine, while there were Fascist elements inside the Ukrainian military, while all of that – there is no justification to actually invade the Ukraine.
Putin is a war criminal, and so is the American Military Industrial Complex.
Sure. All given, b-u-t that doesn’t in any way shape or form justify Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine and it doesn’t justify the vast civilian violence and murder.
I despise Western foreign policy as much as the next educated person, but that doesn’t give grounds to invade the way Russia has into the Ukraine.
While we never want out military to raise their hand in attack, we have an obligation to raise our hand to defend others.
Our current military deployment there should be limited to what it is currently doing with training but we have an obligation to take Ukrainian refugees on top of our current refugee intake obligations rather than the temporary shelter visas we are offering them which requires the Ukrainian NZ Community to take economic responsibility for them.
We can’t seriously engage in military action without offering genuine refugee sponsorship.
Our push should be for an immediate ceasefire.
China?
The remarkable incompetence of the Chinese State to prepare for opening up to Covid could unleash any number of Econo,mic, political or societal upheavals as the country braces for as many as 4 million Covid deaths this year.
How China responds to such a mass death event in a culture that revers Grandparents is difficult to know, but the mass sickness and deaths will take a toll on the ability for the economic infrastructure to function for at least 4 to 5 months.
What backlash it provokes and how China responds to any criticism of their Covid response are all very open questions.
China, Russia and Iran are all highlighting the true fragility of Authoritarian regimes commanded by an undemocratic Autocrat.
Does China respond to protests with a crack down?
Does China respond to protests with an external military adventure aimed at taking some of the Island chains off Taiwan?
There is an investigation into whether or not China its operating a Chinese Police HQ on New Zealand territory, the kind of expression of political harassment of the Chinese/NZ community that many in the Chinese/NZ community have complained and warned about.
China exerts harassment of their diaspora.
New Zealand needs to be more welcoming to and building bridges with our Chinese/NZ community to eradicate this hold over them by the Communist Party and shutting down this clandestine Police HQ on our soil would require a really public symbolism.
Equally however, we have to acknowledge our reliance on their dairy demand and need to urgently recalibrate our economy away from China rather than remain reliant on them because it’s becoming a strategically threatening position now.
Our solution isn’t how to sell the same dairy powder to America, the solution is to move away from selling dairy powder altogether.
China will stop growing for the first time in 40 years, the real estate market is in danger, the West are pulling supply chains out and they are about to suffer a mass death event.
We need to slowly back out of the room, show solidarity with our Chinese/NZ community and quietly go about spending R+D on everything other than bloody Dairy.
John Key’s ‘All-our-Cows-in-one-Beijing-Paddock’ strategy has left us with more hooks than fish.
Israel?
A disgusting abstention to gain justice for Palestine occurred last week, but no one in the NZ Mainstream Media bothered covering the vote…
Rob Berg, President of the Zionist Federation of New Zealand, added: “The outcome of the UNGA vote was as predictable as night following day. The UN has become a bastion of anti Israel fervour and institutional antisemitism. The resolution once again tries to eradicate any connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem and the land of Israel. It will not bring the conflict any closer to resolution which will only be achieved by both parties sitting down together to negotiate a final agreement. In fact all this does is make the Palestinians less likely to negotiate as they have no incentive to do so as long as the UN continues with its anti-Israel agenda.
…this after the provocation of the newly elected far right fascist Itamar Ben-Gvir…
Israel far-right minister enters Al-Aqsa in ‘provocation’
Palestinians and several Arab countries condemn Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit, which they fear is aimed at changing the holy site’s status quo.
…Israel’s new far right Government are Zionist Fascists who have been ratcheting up more extreme violence against Palestinians and the threat of a new intifada is brewing…
Speculation that Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories are on the brink of a third intifada, or Palestinian uprising, surfaces whenever there is a rise in violence in the decades-long conflict. Unfortunately, the convergence of several different elements means that this grim possibility is more likely in 2023 than ever before.
According to the UN, this year has been the deadliest for Palestinians living in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank since the organisation started counting fatalities in the territories in 2005, with 140 Palestinians killed.
Most have died in an Israeli campaign of near-nightly raids, which began in March and shows no sign of slowing down or stopping. The bloodshed is galvanising a new generation of Palestinian fighters who are too young to remember the peace process of the 1990s.
A surprise three-day aerial offensive on the blockaded Gaza Strip this summer killed another 49 Palestinians, and Palestinian terrorist attacks have killed 30 Israelis – the highest number since 2008.
Other developments this year that hark back to the violence of the 2000-2005 intifada include Israel’s return to targeted assassinations in the West Bank, the use of sieges on Palestinian neighbourhoods and entire cities, and the first bus bombings in Jerusalem in years.
On the political front there is also a marked deterioration of affairs. The elderly Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, is in ill health, and his death is expected to further destabilise an already combustible situation.
In Israel in November, the most rightwing coalition in history won national elections: many soon-to-be cabinet ministers in Benjamin Netanyahu’s incoming government are bent on expanding illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, loosening the rules of engagement for the Israeli police and army, and provoking the Palestinians by expanding the Jewish presence on Jerusalem’s sacred Temple Mount.
With a weak and divided opposition in the Knesset, there is little to stop them.
…at some point this extreme Israeli Government are going to cause human rights abuses that the NZ Government won’t be able to ignore.
We are not going to look credible in criticising Chinese, Iranian or Russian human rights abuses while ignoring Israeli human rights abuses.
Australia?
We are already seeing pay off from the change in attitude to deporting 501s who have lived most of their life in Australia before committing crimes, this is essential if we are to slow the rate of professional criminal class from entering NZ which is currently generating the gang war tensions domestically.
Economically we are bound to Australia and with us both having China as a our largest trading partner, any downturn in China will have a double whammy effect in NZ as it will also impact Australia.
Those Australian Banks better not get wobbly.
America?
Watching America turn on itself domestically while it is making Billions in sales for weapons to Ukraine is a reminder that America is and always was a Corporate War Machine masquerading as a Democracy.
The less we have to do with America, the better. God help us if Trump is re-elected. Should true and lure disgruntled liberals.
UK?
Are about to go through a terrible recession, we should be doing recruitment drives for UK nurses and teachers.
The Pacific?
Are going through the current power tug of war between America and China, will need more aid thanks to more catastrophic climate events. We have to stop exploiting Pacific workers and offer them minimal Union imposed standards of work and conditions. Exploiting Pacific workers to service our agricultural industry and pretending that’s helping them is disgraceful.
Let us be good Pacific Neighbours rather than exploitative ones.
At some point we are going to need to discuss a increasing our military budget. As a life long pacifist, I see climate change and the need to be able to protect our economic zone and fisheries demanding far more from our military.
We need to seriously see increasing our military spend to 4% GDP and spend it on civil defence craft upgrades, patrol boat capacity upgrade, more frigates and we need to seriously invest in a new Drone Air Force that has capacity to surveil our economic zone and defend it.
The world is becoming a far more dangerous place with Covid, War, Catastrophic Climate Change and a Global Economic recession, but we must uphold our values of ‘Enemy to none, Friend to all’ while protecting what we have and preparing for the radical disruptions of climate change.
The need to protect our fisheries from Fishing Militia and pirates is essential.
Drones have shown their importance on the battlefield in the Ukraine and would be the perfect asset to build capacity in to protect NZs seas.
We are going to have to have a serious discussion about military/civil defence upgrades and expenditure while providing homes for refugees and aid for those who will be impacted by geopolitical disruptions.
We must walk with the mana of our people while preparing for the challenges ahead.
I never want to see a NZ military that raise its hand to attack, but we must have one that can raise its hand to defend.
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Or you simply do this: do nothing at all. Promote peaceful economic development, and let other peoples run their own countries.
We now know that Wolfowitz, Cheney & Co. were intending to invade Iran around 2006 (thanks to Gen. Wes Clark, who saw the plans being drawn up in 2001).
When there weren’t enough troops to fight Gen. John Abazaid’s war plan, the strategy shifted to fomenting an uprising, with support for rebel groups like the M.E.K.
What are the benefits of supporting a new regime change operation in Iran right now, even if it was merely the staging of a Color Revolution?
If you start your little sanctions war with them, how would you then join the B.R.I.C.S? Goodbye to industrialisation and trading on the gold standard, you’ll be a big ol’ rust belt stuck inside the collapsing U.S. Dollar.
Back in 1997, Zibby Brzezinski started calling for the U.S. to break off Ukraine from Russia, as part of the wider U.S. strategy to smash Russia into warring little statelets. Victoria Nuland & Co. got it done with the coup in 2014, starting the war.
So what is the rationale for sending troops, arms or funds to the coup regime in Kiev, at all in the first place?
Again, this simply cuts you off from B.R.I.C.S, with no obvious benefits at all.
People need to ignore all the Orientalist nonsense being spread, claiming that foreign peoples are somehow helpless without the U.S. coming along to overthrow their government.
They don’t need “our help”. They’re quite capable of governing themselves.
Ukraine was an independent from Russia/USSR member of the UN long before 1997.
“So what is the rationale for sending troops, arms or funds to the coup regime in Kiev, at all in the first place?”
Er our multi-lateralism – the UN and the collective security of nations.
As for Iran – BB simply wants us to show solidarity with oppressed women there, take in refugees and educate them in our universities. He should mentioning the same for women from Afghanistan.
And in the case of Russia invading Ukraine (there is Iran and N Korea supplying weapons to assist this), there is Iran arming and training groups operating in Iraq and Lebanon – an imperial agenda that undermines the sovereignty of both nations. And in the case of China its claim to territory recognised as part of the economic zones of other nations. If only these BRICS would let other nations be.
China decided to end lockdowns AFTER US ISM PMI started contracting in early December, + high inflation happening. This means downward pressure on the economy. Recessions are expected this year
If you follow China’s official line, they are stupid. But their actions might have been planned. They damage themselves, but they hope to damage the world economy more (especially the US), while killing off a bunch of their old people, and economically bounce passed everyone during the next recession. They hope to be back to normal some time in March
US PMI came out at 49 (contraction) on December 1. Then the next day China starts saying they’re going to relax zero covid. I always thought they would do this once the global economy goes into a downturn. They are conforming to my expectations to the day!