Whare of Cards – Labour + Greens/Māori Party + NZF: Could Labour pull off the John Key strategy?
With Eru, Marameno and Doc Ferris set to destroy the Māori Party and undermine any sense of stability, the Left need to start considering other options to stop this terrible racist Hard Right Government.
Could John Key’s Whare of Cards strategy hold for Labour?
One of the reasons Key ran such a successful 3 terms was because he had Act to the right of him, United in the centre and the old Māori Party to the Left of him.
He could alternate as he needed to pass legislation.
With the ‘Not Tikanga Enough’ clique attempting to destroy te Pati Māori, it becomes very difficult to rely on them for the stability required for Government.
This is the tragedy of the reset, the Leadership were making the clear decision to stop being simply a party of opposition and be seen as a credible stability in helping kick out this Hard Right Government.
Because egos have been put before the waka, this is a difficult argument to make now.
If the Eru/Doc/Mariameno clique are successful in replacing Debbie and Rawiri, Labour will have to move immediately to rule them out, and simply hope that by doing so, they win back the Māori electorates, decimate the Māori Party vote and pick up soft middle voters.
That would give Labour the win, but without the Māori Party policy edge, it will simply be more incremental nothings from Labour and it would hand advantage to NZF who wool make enormous demands on the Greens.
This is why many Left voters are yearning for a Labour+Green+MP Government because Greens and MP teaming up could negotiate some truly huge progressive policy wins.
A Labour + NZF + Green Government would be an exercise in swallowing dead rats for 3 years.
However.
A Labour + Green/MP + NZF Government could be a solution.
If the Māori Party leadership beat back the ‘Not Tikanga Enough’ clique, they could join with the Greens in a post election negotiation united block to force Labour to be more progressive in return for the guarantee of supply and confidence.
A financial transaction tax from the Māori Party and instead of the Green Party Wealth Tax, Labour could push for Grant Robertson and David Parker’s wealth tax instead.
To provide Chippy with wriggle room, he could seal that deal with Greens/MP, water down some of their demands while reaching out to Winston with the offer that NZF joins the coalition with Winston offered Foreign Minister.
At this stage in his life, Winston would take Foreign Minister under Chippy rather than another 3 years in Opposition.
That way Labour could have the flexibility of policy while shoring up the left and the right.
We wouldn’t be needing to consider these machinations if it weren’t for Doc, Eru and Mariameno.
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In your dreams Winton will stay with Luxon
Wunston knows his power comes from being inscrutable he never wants to be seen as a reliable partner for National or Labour. Being a reliable big party partner is vote destruction. He has to keep ‘changing horses’.
Winton, being part of the Southland electorate, does seem likely to stay with Luxon.
Minnie Dean is buried there. One day, so also will Nationals grip on the voters there, when they recognise their betrayal.
BTW Southland, did you spend all of that $150,000 the generous Nact govt. gave you for the recent storm damage? They really do care ya’ know /sarc
Yes they will vote ACT next time .
More incremental nothings from Labour won’t cut it.
so you are happy with the bull in a china shop mentality we now have .The bull will soon not cause any more damage because all the shops will be shut .Nz is shutting down on lots of fronts and if tech shares take a tumble along with the slide in dairy and retail we are in deep shit
Yes. we are in deep shit. Hence, more incremental nothings from Labour won’t cut it.
There can never ever be NZF in any labour led government again .They undermined Jacindas first term on a daily bases and had she led like Luxon is imagine what the pandemic would have been like .
Why would Chippy or any other Labour leader allow the river of filth party to be part of their government .Not only have you got potatoe winston you have dr pork and his dig baby dig destruction mentality along with his back handers from fishing and mining interests .Who in their right mind wants that corruption and racist hate filled anti vax shit in their government ?
Labour will take the Maori seats back unless the Tamahere party come to its scenses and gets their shit together .Thats the 5% they need to get over the line with the greens .
Eru Kapa Kingi is a drama queen instantly when his mum was challenged about her spending, he went straight to the MSM that notorious for demonizing Maori! The guy is fake news regardless of his educated in the Maori-world and wear a ta Moko he overstepped his own tikanga and went airing his dirty laundry in the public arena instead of “wananga at a Marae” the Maori way.
Labour have already touted that they are campaigning on a CGT, not a wealth tax. You are saying that the combination should force into place a wealth tax. Do Labour abandon the CGT in favour of a wealth tax, or encompass both? If so, electoral suicide…
Word is an inheritance tax is being consider to keep the Greens happy
That is good Trevor because having Winstone is poisonous and I can’t see many Māori voters wanting him anywhere near power, not with all the Māori bashing him and his party are doing. Remember Winstone relies on the old red neck white vote many who are still living in the past.
No, I would say the majority of us Māori voters don’t want Winstone and of course Winstone will stay with Luxon as he can do and say whatever he likes as he has free rein.
Yeah, I tend to agree with Trevor. Winston will only talk to Labour in order to get a better deal out of National.
This is why strategically Labour should refuse to work with Windton.
Who will then have no negotiating power with National, so have no reason to be worthy of anyone’s vote nor become part of any coalition.
The old fart sac would just rise like a hot air balloon and disappear in the breeze
If Labour were to emulate John Key, they’d be even less electable.
We don’t need bums on seats, but people committed to undoing the damage of 40 years of criminal neoliberal folly.
Do the right thing & let the cards fall where they may.
Trevor didn’t say he would talk to Labour Geoff he said he would stay with Luxon yet based on the trend in the polls not many want Luxon, note I did say trend. And Winstone has been rubbishing Labour so why would you bother going there.
While many on this blog condemn Luxon he has handled the two coalition partners better than most predicted. Unfortunately National. has suffered a bit but the Right company us still firmly in the lead and as the economy grows so will support
Yes, we can see the green shoots Trevor they are coming out of Nicolas’ arrrrrse.
Yes all reputable economists are predicting a positive outcome for the economy next year.
Really Trevor are they the same economist who said our house prices would fall for years and they kept rising.