Waatea News Column: Where, how and why Māori vote will decide 2023 election

ByMartyn Bradbury

The latest Newshub Poll repeats what previous Polls have told us, that the Māori vote in 2023 will decide the election.

Māori have shown themselves to be one of the most tactical voting blocks in the NZ electorate and where, how and why Māori vote this year will decide the Government.

Part of this is simple demographics, the future is browner and younger, this election will be the first one ever where Millenials and Gen Xers are a larger voting block than Boomers.

Part of it is the ability to connect via social media, part of it is a resurgent Māori Party and part of it is a younger pakeha generation who don’t see co-governance  as an existential race war.

The ability of Labour’s Māori caucus to gain over $3billion in extra funding for Māori programs is also a strong reason for participation.

I suspect the way the Right have denigrated Māori over the last 3 years has also ensured a backlash amongst many voters appalled at the way Māori have been scapegoated.

ACT are promising this election to repeal the Treaty, rewrite it, and then force it onto the country! If that doesn’t motivate Māori voters, I’m not sure what will.

The challenge for a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party is to pass policy that makes an immediate difference to the lives of those who vote for it.

People want change, the politicians are the ones dragging their heels.

First published on Waatea News.

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35 Comments

  1. “Te Pāti Māori has accused Prime Minister Chris Hipkins of “oppression” after he warned smaller parties to “be careful” with what bottom lines they present ahead of the general election.

    “You don’t tell indigenous peoples what our bottom lines are,” co-leader Rawiri Waititi”.

    I cannot see this mess of parties coalition ever ever working when that is the staunch position already taken!

  2. You would have to prove that a) young people are actually politically active; and b) that they actually like race-based policies (vs. Bernie, Trump, etc.)

    1. Also Maori are all different and certainly dont all vote TMP. Just look at the percentages.

      Too early to call still. I doubt anyone knows whats going to happen. Although National’s absolute devotion to Luxon despite all the misfiring and small target strategy does make you wonder what their polling is telling them?

      Do they know something we dont? Superficially they look tone deaf and foolish.

      All this talk about National not spending its huge warchest makes me wonder whether they have invested in some HIGH END analytics like Oxford Analytics and like with Trump being elected, they know enough or are manipulating enough to not doubt the result. Food for thought.

  3. Younger, browner is happening right now. Far North got its first Māori Mayor, young Moko Tepania, last year and he is doing well. He communicates daily online, networks with other Mayors, and replies personally to many enquiries.

    In contrast boomer king operates in a bunker and wants the Supercity out of Local Govt. NZ.

    If new gens turnout in the General Election Natzos-ACT will remain where they are. Green/TPM is who to vote for if you have a left world view.

    1. I’m not sure the demographic change is really in TPM’s favor. Nearly 200,000 new voters due to covid residency deal. Plus now immigration back to mass inwards and looking like 100,000 net this year, there is no way the indigenous can demographically challenge those numbers… we’re back to the days of colonization of the late 1800s…

  4. If the attitude to the census is their attitude to the election then the Right have nothing to fear from a Maori backlash.
    Maori and Pacifica are poor at getting free vaccinations for their own good will they bother to vote .

    1. The right will all jump in their black Mercedes and drive 50 m to vote. You may well be right.

          1. Look, I am a car fan, owned many & various US V8 Fords over the years, but I have noticed that earlier Ravs are damned hard to kill going by the numbers still around in the salty North.

            Trev’s prob bullshitting anyway and has a Demio…or scooter…

    2. JT will have been very busy collecting Maori email addresses for TPM during the Waiparera and other Maori vaccination efforts to help get out the vote.

  5. The issue of trust is at play here (or lack of trust) when people don’t trust authorities, they are less likely to engage or participate. Also, when the statistics have been overwhelmingly saying one group is not receiving the same level of care or treatment and the information is not being acted on again and again, what sort of reaction do you expect. With all the Maori bashing on this site it doesn’t surprise me. And might I add it’s the same culprits like Trevor and im right et al

    1. I am sorry you see my comments as Maori bashing .During my working years I had 2 Maori business partners ,I quit a real estate firm that refused to let me let a home to a Maori family and argued with the area manager at KFC to be allowed to make my Maori cook an assistant manager .
      I see Maori as no different to me so my beef is why do they need a seperate programme to stop smoking ,why do they need exclusive seats in Parliment as they are well represented in the regular members , why a seperate health authority, why are the tribe groups treated as charities and pay no tax (I feel the same about religious groups as well ).
      Maori through incredible sail skill arrived IN NZ first then the British came and took over their land which is the history of most countries .Surely it is time to move on use the skills you have and be better not bitter.

  6. Large numbers of Maori don’t and never have voted for The Maori Party.
    Unless they adopt a less race based policy platform they are always going to be a minority party.
    They’ve got some good policy but to grow their vote they are going to have to be more universal in their approach.

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