Waatea News Column: What does Māori Party stratospheric polling say about election 2023?

What does Māori Party stratospheric polling say about election 2023?

The latest Roy Morgan Poll represents a seismic shift in the NZ political spectrum. The stratospheric Māori Party result of 5% is unprecedented in NZ politics.

The highest the Māori Party has ever achieved electorally is half of that result back in 2008.

What is happening that is generating such spectacular results and what does it mean for the 2023 election?

The first thing to note is the incredible work The Māori Party has put into their social media culture. Research in the last election found that the Māori Party had the most positive social media campaign of all parties. This optimism and positivity has built strong social networks.

The second thing is basic demographics, the Māori population is younger, their median age is almost a decade younger than Pakeha, and the next generation are confident in their identity.

The third thing is the extraordinary work by Māori health community outreach that reignited and rekindled connection to Māori and helped reconnect them with civics.

The fourth, and I think most powerful driver of this extraordinary jump in Māori Party support is that the grotesque articulation of exceptionally anti-Māori rhetoric by the right over co-governance, 3 Waters and the promise to cut the Ministry of Māori Affairs has driven Māori who previously had refused to engage democratically to ensure that they do.

With the possibility of Adrian Rurawhe standing down from Te Tai Hauāuru now that he is Speaker, the Māori Party could pick up an extra Māori seat alongside a 5% party list.

This would make the Māori Party a Queen maker in any possible Labour/Green Government.

The political right in New Zealand, once they realise Labour’s need to rely on the Māori Party will ramp up their race baiting messaging which in turn will solidify that Māori political backlash.

2023 is shaping up to be an incredibly polarising and bitter political battle for the direction of this country, part of winning will be the need to reach across to the losing side because healing will be required after this election.

First published on Waatea News.