Waatea Election Poll – NZF has real popularity & Te Pāti Māori are not dead
In a political landscape dominated by corporate polling firms and Wellington insider chatter, sometimes the most revealing signals come from unexpected places. A Waatea “Question of the Day” has sparked serious engagement – and the numbers hint at shifting Māori political dynamics ahead of 2026.
- Labour Party – 38%
- NZ First – 16%
- Green Party – 14%
- Te Pāti Māori – 12%
- National Party – 5%
- ACT Party – 1%
A Non-Scientific Poll – But Politically Revealing
Interesting response to Waatea’s Question of the Day that shows NZF has real popularity & Te Pāti Māori are not dead. The caveats are this isn’t a Scientific Poll, but it has meaning:
The Engagement Numbers Matter
The question generated:
Comparing This to the Last Election’s Māori Vote
This is interesting when you consider the estimates for how Māori voted in the last election are are 35% voted Labour, 10% voted Green, 16% voted Māori Party, 23% voted National, 5% voted ACT and 5% voted NZF…
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Cheers for the breakdown, Martyn. It’s choice to see some actual engagement numbers from Waatea rather than just the usual corporate guesswork. Those NZ First figures are a bit of a headscratcher though—do you reckon it’s a protest vote or a genuine shift in the 35-54 bracket? I was trying to cross-reference some of these international betting trends to see if the offshore markets are seeing the same swing, but I stumbled onto guiadebetnacionalbrasil.com and couldn’t make heads or tails of it. Is that site even legit for tracking our stats, or is it just another legal mess? Would be keen to hear if anyone else has used it to check the odds for 2026.
Would be fascinated to know why on earth Maori vote National.
Punters predict a Labour win
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewzealandparli/new-zealand-election/kxnewzealandparli-26dec31
The punters predict Labour win.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewzealandparli/new-zealand-election/kxnewzealandparli-26dec31