TVNZ Poll: ACT/National Government as Greens plunge- Winners, Losers and Predictions
TVNZ have finally produced a Poll. The cheap buggers last put one out in March so dropping one at the end of May is the least they can do as the public broadcaster.
Like the least they can do!
Turns out ‘Pure Trans Joy’ and starting a culture war with white cis males wasn’t the tactical masterstroke some in the Greens seemed to think it was.
They plunge to 7%.
James Shaw cheerfully told TVNZ that was a better result than they got on Election night, which while technically true by the narrowest of margins is hardly a resounding victory for the last 3 years is it?
Vote Greens, we are fractionally more popular than we were last election!
Doesn’t roll off the tongue does it?
There are of course political winners and losers.
WINNERS:
LABOUR: Culture war grievance generates lots of noice, but it isn’t the main issue impacting voters.
Cost of living is!
I think it is highly unlikely now that National can win the 2023 election.
If we look at John Key 180 days out from each of his elections, National was beating Labour by double digits, under Luxon, National are beating Labour by 2 points.
National over poll all the time and the number they need to win by has to be in double digits to ensure it can win, National haven’t achieved anything like that since Key left Office and it means a win this year is highly unlikely.
That doesn’t mean the Left can sleep walk to victory, they need to push policy that can actually solve the pain voters are feeling, but it does mean we have everything to fight for.
Going into this election, Labour desperately need a crisis response policy that makes immediate material change in the lives of the many who are being crushed by the cost of living crisis.
- Free Public Transport for all
- Free Dental
- Expand free after school care and extend Early Child Education to 30 hours a week.
- New State Home Expansion
- New Ministry of Green Works
- Financial Transaction Tax
- 30% stakeholder role in Supermarket Duopoly
There are a thousand reasons not to allow a National/ACT Government from taking over, Chippy has to give voters just 1 reason to vote Labour.
LOSERS:
GREENS: The current Green Party see the enemy as every heteronormative white cis male, they don’t see it as capitalism. The problem for the Greens is Patriarchy and Colonialism not neoliberal free market economics.
The Greens chose the baubles of vacant Ministerships over fighting a Labour Party that didn’t need them and then acted surprised when they get welded to that incrementalism and damned for it by the activists.
As the Greens stall in the Polls, the wider political question is will the class Left ride to the aid of the Greens in 2023 they way they did in 2017?
In 2017, as the implosion of Metiria’s confession of taking a benefit she wasn’t entitled to (without actually sorting it out and paying it) self mutilated the Greens, Chris Trotter and the Class Left launched a campaign to save the Greens by Party voting for them.
It was enough to keep them above the 5% threshold.
Will the Class Left do that for the Greens this election as the Greens barely mange to poll above their 2020 result?
I think the answer is no.
The naked reality for genuinely progressive voters concerned with the horrific inequalities caused by neoliberal capitalism now is to force the Labour Party into being actually Left wing by a minor Party forcing them to.
Labour is still hostage to the exact same neoliberal straightjacket that National is and if we want to get Chippy and Grant to pass Real Left legislation, it will be by forcing them to do it.
The problem with the Greens is that they are so feckless that they will fuck up any post negotiation and flip flop around. Their entire strategy of taking vacant baubles in the form of powerless Ministerships tells us they are so incompetent they couldn’t get laid in a monkey brothel wearing banana costumes.
The woke are great when it is a Vegan Militant Cycling Mummy Blogger Free-the-nipple rally or mob violence using the thugs veto to shut down gender critical feminists in public spaces, but not so good at challenging the neoliberal hegemonic structure.
Chloe will win Auckland Central and they will probably take Wellington Central as well, so even if they slip below 5%, there will be Green political representation, so the Class Left don’t need to ride to the Greens this election because they are getting in anyway PLUS they just don’t deserve it.
NATIONAL and ACT: National are 2 points ahead and ACT peaked out.
The policy difference between Labour and the Greens is almost 90% the same, but the policy difference between National and ACT are light years apart.
With ACT in double digits, they are a constant existential threat to National and because Luxon is so weak, he will agree to any of the crazy far right policy ACT want to implement and it is far right nonsense on meth.
- A billion into more prisons and detention camps
- Near flat tax fantasy
- Amputation of 5 Ministry’s plus closing the Human Rights Commission
- Billions slashed from welfare
- A referendum to rewrite the Treaty with no negotiation with Māori.
- Destroy Gun register so gun fetishists can legally masturbate to their favourite guns again.
It’s libertarian gibberish with culture war dog trumpets thrown in for shits and giggles, but as we saw with Liz Truss when she attempted to implement the same types of free market bullshit in the UK, the Market itself revolted.
If ACT and National attempted to implement half of this policy platform it would lead to vast civil disobedience on top of the Markets doing the exact same thing to NZ that they did to the UK.
The reality is that the ACT agenda is so radical and the National Party so weak you understand why there is a serious attempt within National to get Shane Jones an Epsom Cup of Tea deal in Northland so as to put a hand break on ACT.
David Seymour and Winston hate each other, like despise each other so the idea that a Labour led minority Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would be a ‘Coalition of Chaos’, totally ignores the ‘Alliance of Anarchy’ where Winston and David spend 3 years trying to kill each other off while Luxon sits crying in the middle like a stunned mullet.
PREDICTIONS:
The difference between Chippy and Luxon is that Luxon wants to be your Boss Mate, the kind of emotionally draining relationship where you are always laughing at the Boss mates jokes and always doing what he wants in the weekend. It’s a relationship many workers are forced to play along with in NZs tiny pool and it’s one that we all willingly run a mile from if we have the option.
Chippy on the other hand just wants a sausage roll.
There’s a kind of social security in knowing that.
An afternoon entertaining the bosses kids or throw Chippy hot meat wrapped in pastry?
Chippy has the greatest of NZ values, basic dorky competency while remaining affable.
Verity Johnson asks, Why doesn’t Luxon harness Auckland rage? and it’s because while there is a smouldering resentment towards Labour over that second Covid lockdown, it hasn’t transferred into support for Luxon or all the crazy shit National are promising and will come alongside ACT.
Chippy is the family Labrador where as Luxon is a territorial high maintenance lap dog barking at every passing car.
If the Class Left want real change this election, they should consider voting for the Māori Party.
The difference between the Greens and John Tamihere, is that when John Tamihere says he will take GST off food and tax the rich, you fucking know he will.
When the Greens say they’ll do something, most voters laugh.
JT is going to roll into that room, kick arse and take names. The Greens will have another piece of paper reading ‘why not – EXCLAMATION MARK!’
Vote Green and get a 6 month hui where they can’t work out if they are Arthur or Martha and another 12month hui after that to decide which pronouns to use. Vote Maori Party and JT will have GST off food and taxing the rich in the first 100 days!
If we on the Left want real change, not the woke garbage the Greens have spent 3 years harvesting and not the incremental slow death of Labour’s caution, then a vote for the Māori Party to remove GST off food and tax the rich would do more to help the poorest and generate the revenue we need for our social and physical infrastructure than anything else.
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The Green won’t make 5%.
2 reasons.
1. They are divided into warring factions.
2. They are obsessed with identity politics. They have forgotten their raisin d’être.
Ed. James Shaw’s anger at the sad Loafers Lodge tragedy, was one of the few authentic responses I can recall from a politician not constantly governed by pr advisors. Apart from that, the Greens are a party of haters, and not just of each other, but chunks of the general populace, except, it seems, gays, lesbians, transgenderists, and non-whites, and as such they are a divisive and colossal waste of time and taxpayers’ money. Environmentalists may be looking elsewhere to cast their votes but unfortunately it’s still not clear where, at this stage.
There’s at least 5% who hate white cis males and are consumed with pettiness, eternally. They’re safe!
Yes, Ed people say this every election time they also call them looney greens anything to discredit them but frankly based on the mess our environments are in and other (Northern Italy recent floods) countries we all need a Green party.
Typo!
raison d’être
raisin seems more apt – shriveled and dry.
raisin is better – shriveled and dry
a left government is not going to happen despite the shortcomings of National. happy to be proved wrong just to hear the words – “three more years” and to watch people lose their minds.
We haven’t had a left government since the 70s so it’s a pretty easy prediction to say we won’t have one this time round
Labour down, Maori party down, Green Party well down.
The public saw the Greens and they got to see the Maori Party on display.
And they voted with their feet.
Did Labour get a post budget bounce?
No they went backwards.
The left are a horrible toxic mess of woke identity politics and no the public don’t like it.
National/ACT and NZF would making a cracking Coalition if they could put it together.
NZF always poll higher come Election Day so with a savvy Election Campaign they could sliver over the 5% threash hold ???
Sliver is a good word to describe NZ first like a snake aye Ngungukai.
Vote Labour for payrises and free meds.
Vote National/ACT for cuts, austerity and homelessness.
So you would have a permanent freeze in wages? No pay rises thought your whole career? Look at that woman, Kristine Bartlett, who was stuck on the same wage for 30 years because neo liberal filth like you want a cheap latte.
So would you rather people be poorer then Thomas
What about the economic consequences of lowering inflation we have to have higher unemployment is that why the immigration flood gates have opened.
So pay people nothing and then everything will be free. That’s what your saying Thomas, right?
Free rent, free mortgage, free food?
Always will be, right?
I agree with vote Green get 6 months of hui but I would add vote Labour and get 6 years of no doe.
The tide is turning now and more people are confident in saying they support National and Act . I do not care if the masses do not warm to Luxon as long as they vote for policies that get the country moving forward and has money in the pot to pay for good medical care ,good education and good law enforcement.
Trev I’m as keen as anybody to see the Greens and Labour get a kick in the proverbial, but the reality is also that National did their damndest to privatise our once first class health system and ran it into the ground in the process, and that they are all equally responsible for the dreadful dumbing down of the education system. That’s the way of the pathetic masters of the universe, it could even be why Marama hates white men – although that would require a depth of thought not evidenced thus far from her. Law enforcement was always going to be a political chestnut, always is, and unlikely to work when living is generally safe.
I agree with your analysis and National did drop the ball towards the end of their 9 years just the same as Clark did in the previous 9 years . I hope if National are given the privilege of leading the country again they will do things better in education and health .Let’s face it it would be hard to do worst
Correct Snow White, one certainty, National and ACT will privatize the hell out of most services. I guess Trevor is what you would describe as the classic patriotic National voter despite policy.
Get the Country Back on Track ?
Like they (National) got us on track last time they were in power, yeah right!
There’s a thing called “ freedom of speech”, that the left seem to view as their enemy, while others see it as essential of democracy. There was the Albert Park debacle, where not only did Labour and Green politicians join in the silencing of women’s voices, but deliberately misrepresented the purpose of that event before it even took place. There’s the kneecapping of the independent Commissioner for Children, another counter-productive silencing exercise, and, incredibly, “ replacing” that independent commissioner with back room pronouns from the Education Dept which is championing the sexualisation of children and extreme gender ID ideology as part of the school curriculum. None of this is ok.
Labour and Hipkins both drop in support. Hipkins is now the least preferred PM in almost 25 years. He ranks similarly to what Dame Jenny Shipley did.
Yet Labour is in the winners list, when they didn’t even receive a budget bounce.
I knew you were a deluded fool, but wow!
Verity Johnson’s article was so accurate.! Like that such a – to the point – non Te Reo article appeared in Stuff was simply astounding. National should be on to that but are too stupid to see the bleeding obvious!
But overall the trend is Labour in decline, and voters, who are fucked off with the rotten urban liberal sham calling itself “left”, are now firming up to swallow a few dead rats just to get some change!
Tax the rich and don’t bother voting…
JSB 100% correct start taxing the right people and the problem is solved. Rather than hammering the middle/lower socio-economic groups, Labour are asleep at the wheel.
And Luxons tax cuts will result in an extra $18,000 to his own salary Thomas, cool eh?
You’ll get $104
I don’t, if you are one of the unfortunates, you will, should he.
I despair at some of the political hackery that passes for intelligent debate in this forum – until we get a better eroei on what’s been pumped out of the ground for over a century – the only way is down. hows that for woke demagoguery? woke up – lol
There’s only one poll that counts: The election.
By the time October comes around, the popularity bump Chippie experienced for being ‘Not Jacinda’ will have worn off. Inflation will be through the roof. Interest rates will be crippling anyone with a mortgage and a lost generation of brown youth will be terrorizing inner cities.
You can guess the result.
Yes the country will realise a vote for the right bloc will mean cuts to everything plus privatisation so that $2 a week tax relief will be swallowed by that $90,000 hip replacement operation, the $70 doctors visit, the $25 prescription fee, the $200 school fee. The cutting of health services will be just the start.
Ram raids will become bull raids when police cuts take place and forget the racist remark on brown youths, all youths will be terrorizing inner cities. … Once N.Z. understand this and vote …well…
You can guess the result.
“The current Green Party see the enemy as every heteronormative white cis male, they don’t see it as capitalism. The problem for the Greens is Patriarchy and Colonialism not neoliberal free market economics.”
No. That’s nonsense. The problem with the Green party is they’re not sure if they’re communists, identitarians or both. What they certainly are not is an environmental/climate change focused party.
Nice result for Luxon. He is looking like a great option all if a sudden, after a dreadful budget.
Yes, the one reason Labour can present to the people of NZ to not vote for National will be when they release their alternative budget. New Zealanders will see in order for National to deliver tax cuts and tax rebates to landlords as promised something significant has to be cut. At the moment Luxon is showing he will change his narrative to suit his audience we saw this with the predominantly old white audience at the bowling club on the North Shore racism was very much at the forefront. Luxon is also showing he has tendency to backtrack to appease his audience.
Yes, the one reason Labour can present to the people of NZ to not vote for National will be when they release their alternative budget. New Zealanders will see in order for National to deliver tax cuts and tax rebates to landlords as promised something significant has to be cut. At the moment Luxon is showing he will change his narrative to suit his audience we saw this with the predominantly old white audience at the bowling club on the North Shore racism was very much at the forefront. Luxon is also showing he has tendency to backtrack to appease his audience.
The pattern I’ve seen over the years is Governments are voted out rather than voted in. That has never been more so than this upcoming election.
I really hope the next Government is formed based on the same type of formula used to find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. We mostly consider the form and the ability when picking a winner.
When I look at the form of both main parties, it looks like a face plant. That then leaves the ability.
I sincerely believe Megan Woods for example is a decidedly ordinary Minister yet she is Labour’s go-to Minister in key portfolios. Why? We had Poto Williams as the Minister of Police despite most people recognizing she was well out of her depth from day one. It was clear her appointment was more about Virtue Signaling than merit. We saw an explosion of ram-raids where Williams sat on her hands as things worsened every month. Ardern claimed she had full confidence in Williams. Ram-Raids got a foothold and quickly reached unprecedented levels. Offenders that were caught had their charges downgraded to lesser charges equaling lesser penalties. The charade with priority quickly became the poor old offender (invariably Maori) who had a sad upbringing rather than the poor old victim (invariably non Maori). Ardern eventually gave Williams the Spanish Archer and stated “Williams had lost her focus”. That raised three important questions.
1) How does the Minister of Police lose focus during an unprecedented crime wave?
2) Did Williams ever have any focus?
3) How does her appointment reflect on those who appointed her?
For me, this is a clear example of “ability and form”.
I recall when National were last in Government they absurdly claimed the increase in reported crime especially house burglaries was due to the public having more confidence in the Police solving the crime rather than an actual increase in crime. Labour are now effectively saying the same thing despite what most Kiwi’s can clearly see.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta has been largely asleep at the wheel despite troubling times globally ….apart from her pet projects of course. She’s also made sure her whanau are nearby.
Andrew Little was “unavailable for comment” more than all other Ministers put together while Minister of Health. I felt Jonathan Coleman was the worst Minister of Heath I’ve seen. Andrew Little has set a new benchmark.
Deputy PM Carmel Sepuloni was shocked to learn Motels were charging M.S.D more than they charged the public. That is despite it being her job to know and virtually the rest of NZ already knowing it for years prior to Sepuloni waking up to it. Her form book does not offer much.
Chris Hipkins. I feel it’s really important we don’t get misled by irrelevant personality issues. Referring to him as “Chippy” is a huge improvement on the names used on Ardern but it is a pet name. Do we need to be using pet names especially in the lead up to an election? Sausage Rolls? Honestly, who gives a rats arse? Does anyone believe Hipkins normally eats Sausage Rolls? He is a good communicator and clearly a smart personable guy. Having said that, it is clear he is managing things so the more contentious and divisive policies Labour has such as hate speech and three waters have been put on the back burner until after the election. There are things hidden in clear view that raise alarm bells.
Labour do have some good Ministers but they have more very average ones. Their form and ability is not good enough to win the Balclutha Cup let alone the Melbourne Cup.
People have their own take on why John Key stood down as PM and why Jacinda Ardern did. Here’s mine on Ardern.
Ardern is a smart lady. She knew Labour couldn’t win in October 2023 with Three Waters especially. She knew to win she’d need to convince the Labour Maori caucus to tone down certain policy but they wouldn’t budge. Ardern knew she’d fight a losing battle in 2023 and with all the ongoing personal abuse that goes with that. She enjoyed a summer with her family and decided if Labour are going to lose they can do it without her. The Maori Caucus have been quiet since. Why? I feel sure they are trying to box smart until after the election….just like Hipkins.
National are being led by a man doing a wonderful job…….of keeping his true self hidden from view. Not surprisingly the majority of Kiwi’s don’t trust him. Their focus seems to be tax cuts for those that need them least which is exactly what Judith Collins had as her main policy…..and of course looking after farmers and landlords. What’s new?
No surprise to see The Greens vote falling. They are invariably the quintessential Chocolate Teapot. Marama Davidson has also clearly misread NZ and highlighted the people she keeps close and those she has disdain for. Any politician that conducts herself in that manner has arrogantly and divisively forgotten the demographic of NZ. The Greens appear disjointed and almost irrelevant. There will still be a place for them in NZ Politics but I believe their numbers will continue heading in the wrong direction.
ACT are not a Party I embrace and we’ve been there done that with NZF.
I believe the upcoming election is the most important for NZ of my 60 year life….yet tragically the options appear worse than ever.
Sorry Jess, I don’t believe a political poll from American mainstream media.
The fact that Labour single-handedly destroyed the economy with their utterly deluded and pointless draconian covid policy (and the mantra has always been “it’s the economy, stupid!”, holds just as much for NZ as it does the US), this election should always be National/ACT’s to lose (even though they mostly voted with Labour on covid-19 policy, but voters won’t associate them with it like they do Labour/Hipkins – who was Health Minister at the time).
National and ACT have been shown up as worse than Labour. Why have nurses and teachers and beneficiaries had to fight the labour government every inch of the way for increases? Because Nact cut them all.
Yes, Ed people say this every election time they also call them looney greens anything to discredit them but frankly based on the mess our environments are in and other (Northern Italy recent floods) countries we all need a Green party.
Yes, Ed people say this every election time they also call them looney greens anything to discredit them but frankly based on the mess our environments are in and other (Northern Italy recent floods) countries we all need a Green party.
Hey Millsy you forgot vote National and Act for more inequalities and more Maori in prisons.
Climate change a big issue in people’s minds – 33%
Hypocrisy is big in NZ. They spend $251 on public transport!!!!!
“Ministry for environment was criticised earlier this year for spending $913,000 on flights over 11 months while advising the public to “walk, cycle or take public transport wherever possible” on its website.
It also spent a further $97,225 on taxis, shuttles and Ubers, with only $251 being spent on public transport.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ministry-for-the-environment-ceo-flying-from-hawkes-bay-to-wellington-once-a-week/3MZJCSOCQZGN7HGGKGTFJ5TPHA/
Good to know that the biggest global corporates only have to pay a fraction of NZ tax, as they get their parent companies to charge massive fees to escape local taxes. Meanwhile the debate continues on a doctor in NZ being so rich they need to pay not only 39% on their earnings but being targeted for further taxes while the biggest corporates are allowed to pay 10%
Google NZ pays $870m fee to US parent, books $78m local revenue
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/google-nz-pays-870m-fee-to-us-parent-books-78m-local-revenue/2Q4JPQUURBCAXMC5MJG7HJLXTI/
Agree but Winston insists he wont be doing a Northland deal with the Nats. Time will tell.
Winner – is when your number is bigger than the other one
Despite Bomber saying that National overpoll, I wonder if the current polling could actually be underestimating NAT/ACT support – i.e. the first NZ manifestation of the “shy conservative voter” seen in the UK and US, where they won’t admit their true right-wing voting intentions to the bright young pollsters who phone them. Hence the shock when Brexit and President Trump happened.