The Sharma Drama by-election Nirvana: Winners, Losers and Predictions

The ‘I-told-you-so’ express is on time again folks, I argued Sharma had decided to go kamikaze right at the beginning of this and was always intending to pull this card!

We’ve pointed out that an Independent winner in Hamilton West could have impacts in the incredibly splintered MMP election.

Sharma has political mercenaries whispering into his ear and he was always going to feed his wounded ego by inflicting as much damage as possible on Labour, much to the delight of his puppet masters.

Everyone has underestimated Sharma, except this blog. We saw he was pathological right at the beginning. Hell hath no fury like a migrant Dr denied his perceived worth. He’s like Hannibal Lector but with more teeth.

There are of course political winners and losers.

WINNERS:

Dr Sharma – He has timed this to be as damaging as possible. I said he was far more devious and strategic and Machiavellian than Labour thought he was and here he is in giving them a masterclass in payback. With the vote split so many different ways, he does have an actual chance here if the migrant community strongly support him. To us, his list of complaints sounds like self interested snowflake victimhood, to the migrant community however, his list of petty put downs and condescensions are part of the daily lived experience of bigotry and racism they encounter invisibly every day of their lives. Do not underestimate the power of that resentment.

NZFirst – If Winston stands, he will win. No one else will be standing a candidate with anything like the profile Winston has, it’s a gamble, but he’d win. The question is his health and could he do this and the nationwide campaign? Shane Jones is too lazy and his pompousness won’t go down well in a working class electorate.

The Necromancer – He is NZ Firsts hard right hitman, he is also advising Sharma. This is purely recreational havoc he’s causing here, he’ll throw the good Dr under a bus the moment it becomes prudent to do so. If Winston is serious about running here, Sharma will be sabotaged in the middle of the campaign.

ACT – A strong showing here would be an enormous boon going into the 2023 election. ACT need to show they are a 15% Party and this by-election is perfect. Seymour is a great campaigner and they have the energy to run this.

Millennial Victim Culture – The only reason Sharma is getting away with this drama is because the easily triggered minefield of micro aggressions is all the rave these days. He gets cultural traction playing the bullied victim card because exposing your wounds to the world is good for the Instagram clicks. B-E-L-I-E-V-E all candidates.

Fringe Lunatic Parties – They will all be champing at the bit to spread their sweaty Qanon anti-vax truths and in turn will throw the results out the window in terms of understanding how the result will twist. How susceptible is a working class electorate to crazy conspiracy theories? Gulp. Let’s find out.

TOP – This would be a great opportunity to inject tax debate into a byelection. Working class people bleed tax, they know the damage it causes them, TOP have actual arguments that would appeal enormously to them.

LOSERS:

Labour – A courageous Labour would roll up their sleeves and literally send the entire Caucus up to the electorate and tap into Jacinda’s support amongst tribal Labour and hammer home real arguments why the people of Hamilton West should return a Labour MP. Because of the likelihood Greens won’t stand and with so many right wing parties splitting the vote, they have a chance of winning. Labour won’t do this because that plan requires vision, guts and balls – 3 things the modern Labour Party are desperately short of. Labour will put up some goose for slaughter and hide to avoid the backwash. The needlessness of this byelection is the real mistake here, not them losing it.

Labour’s Whips – They fucked this up and it should never had gotten this far. They should both be sacked in the reshuffle. There I said it. This issue should never have gotten this septic, the whips treated him condescendingly, didn’t think through the magnitude of what damage he could cause and fucked it up by not stopping him. They’ve managed this appallingly and it’s on them. Both of you know it, both of you should accept the consequences.

Labour’s political mismanagement – How can you fuck it up so badly? Jesus wept, this makes the cancelling of Shakespeare look smart! Sharma needed a cuddle, an invite to the PMs Office to meet with Jacinda and Grant, get a flash of those teeth, have the PM agree to turn up for some bullshit dinner event in Hamilton West and then knife him in the candidate re-selection! See why you need Matt McCarten back? Hasn’t Matt done enough penance? Why can’t you handle basic shit like this? Why allow it to erupt into a fucking by-election 10 months out from the general election? Honestly. You Clowns.

Greens – If they run and and cause Labour to lose, they will start a civil war on social media between the Left 10 months before the election. Their only move is to not stand and stay clear of it, they don’t have enough money to waste on a byelection. They are as useless and impotent as they always are.

National – Punters are stupid and think National will waltz in, they won’t. ACT, NZ First, TOP and a plethora of fringe disinformation candidates will also attempt to reap the anger and pain of a working class electorate. If National don’t win a huge majority, it will be viewed as a loss.

Taxpayers – We are all needlessly stuck with a half million dollar byelection cost that is being waged for political posturing.

The People of Hamilton West – They will never have had so much political attention in their lives, and it will make them feel tingly right up until Christmas when they will be dropped and forever forgotten.

PREDICTIONS:

This byelection was timed to maximise damage, Labour’s only response must be to try and stem the haemorrhaging by running it mid December so as to allow Christmas and New Years to gloss over any loss.

The People of Hamilton West will be wooed in December and forgotten by Christmas. They will have an opportunity to put their working class pain and their working class anger directly to those who would harvest their support. It will be a bitter fruit and it will taste toxic.

Buckle up for a crazy fucking byelection.

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