The NZ First Redneck Jamboree: Winners, Losers & Predictions
As The Daily Blog has been warning for like 10 months now, the curve ball to a National/ACT or Labour/Green/Māori Party Government has always been NZ First.
We have argued he will cross the 5% threshold on Election Day and it will change everything.
The redneck jamboree the conference mutated into wasn’t a dog whistle, it was a fucking canine trumpet. Winston is the brown man that reactionary white people love because his bashing of fellow Māori makes them fell less racist, that’s his one trick pony and that trick is very popular right now in the pony show.
The truth is that it’s all bullshit, Winston will spout whatever nonsense his stupid banjo twanging hicks want to hear and once he’s in power, it all gets dumped because his focus is gaining power, it’s not the raw meat bigotry he uses as bait to get into power.
There are of course, political winners and losers.
WINNERS:
Winston & NZ First: He has the perfect storm of resentments to wash him above the 5% threshold. The left have done a shit job of alleviating the day to day pain of living post Covid and those pains ALWAYS twist to find someone to blame. People are sitting at home with economic insecurity and pain and fear and then someone on TV starts talking Māori that they don’t understand in their own lounge room and the explosion of rage that occurs happens day after day after day after day. There was always a terrible risk of such woke promotion of te Reo to the point it becomes an aggravating factor in peoples lives, and we’ve breached that point. ACT and NZ First are chasing the same reactionary vote, and because all the Left are good at is pronouns, militant Te Reo pronunciation correcting and strangling off free speech, there is a huge reactionary angry electorate out there ready to exploit.
Jacinda & Labour: They finally have a lifeline to forming a majority that isn’t dependent on the Greens and the Māori Party who would demand a radical agenda that Jacinda and Grant are too scared to adopt. They know Winston doesn’t mean all his nonsense about removing the Treaty from legislation and they will refuse to condemn his redneck language. One of the reasons Trevor Mallard was jettisoned to Ireland was because his remaining would finally force the mainstream media to start holding him to account for his provoking the violence on Parliament’s lawns, but also because it would make cutting a deal with Winston impossible.
Dumb Lives Matter Protestors: While the woke middle class left demanded the military be sent in to bash the lumpenproletariat Nazis off Parliament’s Lawns, the reality always was that 53% of those at the protest were Labour/Green voters (a fact the woke middle class left detested). By touring the protest site, Winston has won their support and given them a political vehicle that will actually gain representation rather than a wasted vote on the sub 5% freak show.
TOP: There is still an electorate out there shocked by the wilful spite directed at Māori by Winston who are equally turned off by ACT. With the possibility of NZ First crossing the 5% threshold, National and voters will be looking at other political vehicles so all eyes will now be on Ilam.
The Necromancer: We don’t name him because he’s like Voldemort, but the Necromancer is Winston’s dirty politics hitman and he has secretly set up a Citizens Initiated Referendum to coincide with the election campaign next year. The danger for Winston is that the Necromancer is still associated with Cameron Slater and if there is any link between the two, it could plunge Winston into a new dirty politics scandal.
Polluters, Regional duopolies and crony capitalism: Every duopoly and monopoly and oligopoly who doesn’t want to lose their crony capitalism privileges win if NZ First is returned.
LOSERS:
3 Waters/Co-Governance/He Puapua: The sheer level of spite in Winston’s rhetoric means this is all over rover. Labour will move to inoculate these issues with the same speed Helen Clark did when confiscating the Foreshore and Seabed.
The Greens: They will be snookered once again by NZ First who has a rule that James and Marama are never allowed to look him in the eye when he walks in the room. The Greens are simply too weak to be anything other than be a phantom limb in any Labour/NZ First Government.
National: Luxon will be clutching his pearls in shock at Winston’s language and simply won’t know where to look. As CEO of Air NZ, he would have thrown out any passenger who said what Winston just said so his ability to respond will be limited to blushing and spluttering.
ACT: As TDB warned, Winnie is going after the exact same reactionary vote that ACT have cornered. David can’t be as racist as Winnie and so it’s a moot point how principled ACT Party voters really are. Are ACT Party supporters pure of heart, or are they garden variety bigots who will find Winston’s full bodied rhetoric tastier than ACT’s diet redneckery?
Māori Party: NZ First cresting 5% will be a double edged sword, on the one hand they are immediately ruled out, on the other hand, the sheer racism of Winston’s rhetoric and Labour’s looming capitulation to it will see the Māori Party support jump as Māori recoil in disgust at the rednecks.
Environment: Global warming is a hoax as far as the banjo twangers inside NZ First are concerned, expect any limits to pollution to be removed.
PREDICTIONS:
TDB has predicted the next election will be a splintering of the MMP spectrum and will see NZ First, TOP and an overhang generating Māori Party all playing a part.
The smartest move right now would be for ACT and National to rule Winston out altogether and cut him off at the throat so he can’t play both sides while National have a cup of tea with Raf in Ilam.
Labour will move immediately to dampen down or kill off anything that will stop Winston forming a coalition with them.
The Greens will scream NZ First are racist, transphobic and sexist. This will increase NZ First’s vote.
The Māori Party will leverage NZ First’s rhetoric to gain more Māori electorate seats and a higher than expected party vote to generate an overhang.
The next Government will require multiple parties to form the majority in an overhang Parliament.
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In general, I have to agree Martyn, although I think TOP are mostly left leaning would-be Labour voters. I know a couple and they’re stereotypical hipsters.
Is that you Andrew O? LOL
NZ First will hoover votes away from ACT .
As you say the Natz and ACT need to rule him out quicksmart.
The election will be the ‘wokealls’ against the …’yokels’.
Labour have squandered their mandate.The average voter has NFI about 3 waters and co governance is a guaranteed vote loser.
Seymour is trying to rule him out by way of a Shane Jones donations for favour enquiry. Desperate times for Seymour and ACT.
The Labeen and NZ First coalition was the best out of a bad bunch. That is because they cancelled each other out so that the worst excesses of the woke and right wingers were not enacted.
Sadly now NZ First is out, Labeen are in their echo chamber of cancelling everything, education, freedom of speech, pro anything criminal to be funded, research, health etc in NZ to be race based not on merit, put committees of woke everywhere cancelling Shakespeare, biological woman, language and anything that they can’t understand or don’t like.
I don’t want the Natz back, don’t want Labeen back and don’t like Shane Jones…. maybe first year will not vote.
If NZ First cancel Shane Jones then NZ First will def make over 5%, might for the first time ever, vote NZ First as a protest to NZ’s high needs, totally dependant, terror/criminal immigration policy.
Correct, NZ First is reaping deepening resentment toward Labour and will take votes from them and voters who loath National and ACT, would never vote Greens and want to spend their vote without wasting it. A fair bit of the infrastructure work going on, like rail, is purely because of NZ First. We now all know Labour could run a piss up in a brewery. They are the marketing dept, without the engineering dept in support!
3 waters is interesting in that is like a slow burning tyre mountain fire. Jacinda is for her own reasons beholden to the Maori caucus but knows implementing it will end her government, forthwith. So it sits, indecision abounds, not going away nor going anywhere, just smouldering. She has painted herself into a corner. Same with co-governance, only that is 3 waters, on steroids with afterburners. And that reeks of hidden agendas and undermines trust.
The environment? Our government needs to sell alternatives to cars, but can’t because public transport, being the main alternative, cannot operate anywhere near what is required to be a real alternative because you have to pay thousands of drivers and support staff $40 plus an hour just so they can afford to live in NZ’s big cities, unaffordable broken housing market. And you know that ain’t going to happen nor is these useless pricks ever going to figure that out! So I’m picking it’s exploit third world immigrants in a forlorn attempt to make it work. But it won’t.
And the Greens. What a waste of taxpayer money. What have they done to justify their existence or salaries?
I’m picking Jacinda is seriously mulling over abandoning ship as she won’t want to go down with it. It would look terrible on her résumé!
So when the ACT and National parties ship starts sinking will Luxon go back to Air NZ as the great white hope and Seymour be that one man band, corrupt Epom deal leader, that’s already on their c.v.s
She has to get out now if she can. Her sun has past it’s zenith both here and abroad.
Not abroad Fantail, completely wrong there.
“…The next Government will require multiple parties to form the majority in an overhang Parliament.” Martyn Bradbury
These timid cowards had the first ever house majority in parliament ever achieved under our MMP system. And they threw it all away. Labour could have enacted all the progressive legislation they wanted to, to help out their working class and Pacifica and Maori base.
Why didn’t they?
Labour MPs either lost their nerve, or weren’t all that interested in serving their voting base, to begin with.
The ingrained habits of more than two decades of neoliberal trickle down, let the Market forces rip, certainty proved too hard to shake.
Labour’s cowardice and/or treachery will saddle us with another Right Wing National ACT NZF government that will undo even the mildest reforms that Labour have enacted, and then some. The NACTSNZFs on behalf of their corporate donars will then procede to go on a bull throated assault on beneficiaries, on working people and the natural environment that sustains us all.
Worst fail ever
I had the same Road to Damascus moment in January 2021. Took me 6 months to stop being really angry. They went into this with their eyes open but were arrogant enough to think they knew better. What is so galling even more than the fact they screwed the poor is that they have made Labour unelectable for a good 15 years. So we will have decades of National lead deprivation.
Winstones two best policies are immigration and regional development. Winstones’ supporters time is almost up as they are mostly old and white as is his Maori bashing, it’s also old and tired same shit different day. Looking forward to the battle for the same old tried people votes, chuck in the rednecks many residing in the South Island well its gonna get nasty.
National voters could not trust Winston to go with them so vote splitting will be out unless they opt for Act . Labour voters know they would have to eat so much humble pie to make up for the last three years and sacrifice many of their Maori cabinet to appease him that he is not an option. This election is as important for him as it is for us because he knows it is this last hurrah. There is only so many times you can come back from defeat and remain credtable
If for National going with Winston was needed for them to be in Government and not going with him meant being be in Opposition, what would they do? Pinch their noses and jump in? Too bloody right they would.
The old saying ‘fall down a sewer and come up with a gold watch’ comes to mind.
If getting over the line means needing NZF? Winston could say, “Jump in the cesspool of shit and I’ll get you into power.” Chris Bishop would be in there before the last word was finished, Simeon Brown would be, “How deep Sir,” and Mark Mitchell would hold his nose while making then biggest splash.
Past experience suggests otherwise e.g. the 2017 election. Bill English wasn’t prepared to pinch his nose. IMO it is highly unlikely that NZ First will be in a position to go with anyone come 2023. Nats knew what he Winston was like and Labour have now been burnt by Winston. In the unlikely event NZ First were to get 5% I think they would sit on the cross benches. The way the trend is going Nact won’t need additional support to get over half the seats in 2023.
To say nothing of the Grim Reaper.
The next poll will be interesting, NZF start getting 3-4% and the PANIC! will set in on both sides.
NZ has bad track record for apartheid, racism and discrimination despite having policies like EEO this policy has recently been proven by research to be failing Maori, PI and women. Policies and legislation are only as good as an organisations ability and culture within the workplace, government agency, private company to monitor compliance and the monitoring needs to be ongoing not willy nilly. So, for good old Winstone to come out and say our TOW polices like three waters and council representation are apartheid in action he needs to pull his head in and retire.