The existential threat ACT’s ‘Trexit’ is to National and NZF
David Seymour is far smarter than his critics believe, but he’s now most dangerous and insidious to the Right, not the Left.
He has managed to take the culture war ammunition from the woke and grow ACT from .7 to 8% but now his aim is the wider Political Right, not the Left.
David has a 6 month hate tour to turn the Treaty Principles Referendum Bill into our ‘Trexit’ and launch off the back of that a Citizens Initiated Referendum that Seymour actively takes to the 2026 election.
This is a major threat to National.
ACT have concluded that 20% of the electorate are foaming red neck banjo twanging cross burners and they are making a direct play towards that electorate.
That 20% is made up of a loose affiliation of different groups:
BASIC GROUP 1 – Rich landowning urban white Christians who don’t like Māori political aspirations but enjoy the aesthetics of the culture to not feel so white. The kids are totally in private schools and their names are ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’. Most aren’t sure what a Libertarian is. They are Professional with zero intellectual curiosity outside exclusive holiday destinations, no capital gains tax and some bullshit corporate meditation daily ritual to ‘be present’, which isn’t that tough when you can afford Lululemon and live in a leafy suburb mansion. Their children, ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’ are members of the Young Nats and are fucking pretentious arseholes who openly refer to their parents as ‘Mummy’ and ‘Daddy’.
BASIC GROUP 2 – Chinese and Indian Migrants who don’t understand why poor people and the Māoris get welfare. These small business owners lust for political influence and see National Party local events as a chance to work business contacts while demanding to know why New Zealand can’t have the death penalty like they do back home.
BASIC GROUP 3 – Rich landowning rural Volk who don’t like Māori political aspirations and detest the aesthetics of the culture because it makes them feel less white. These are the ones who complain about Te Reo in the Weather report on TVNZ. They live in the South Island and believe the solution to every problem is ‘More Cows’.
BASIC GROUP 4 – Edgelord Culture War Boomers voting for ACT because of shrill definitions of sovereignty and democracy. Like Chris Trotter at a dinner party no one wants to be at.
80% of ACT voters support Trexit.
Almost 50% of NZF support Trexit.
30% of National voters support Trexit.
This group can be pooled into the 20% reactionary vote who will vote ACT instead of National or NZ First all because David puts ‘equality’ in his branding of this legislation.
The problem for National is this is their electorate ACT are intending to take.
As politics continues to polarise thanks to social media hate algorithms, ACTs appeal will grow, not diminish.
It is absolutely likely that ACT will soar into the teens and stay there, but it will be at a the cost of National and NZF.
This has the possibility of pushing NZF under the 5% threshold while doom looping National into ever diminishing returns.
The positive news for the Left is that ACT cannibalising National and NZF while great for ACT will mean they simply can’t form a Government and Labour + Green + MP will be the majority.
ACT is an existential threat to NZF and National.
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Good if it sinks the Right,
Fascinating take Bomber…essentially my assessment but with more meat on the bone.
NZfirst will have 2 choices, veer Right & try to outdo ACT on the Maori HATE front, or shimmy Left towards their Old Labour anti-neoliberal base(this only really works if possibility of Labour Coalition is on the table?).
My guess is Winston will veer Right……which if Luxon wasn’t such a politically illiterate small minded twat, would open possibility of a Nat/Lab Grand Coalition……..this is where Standford(Bishop?) might be required to step up to the plate?
Whilst partially blind and finding reading & Social Media difficult now – I read this whole article – now that is a compliment. I don’t know why it is but agree more with Martyn Brdbury than I disagree. I think that Luxon having kowtowed to Seymour in order to set himself up as PM, was the first indicator of the power Seymour wields Mind you, Luxon is the lightest of lightweights and it is easy for Seymour to find the right buttons to push. I am not editing this – so please take all typos as ‘read’. With the mainstream media in Aotearoa NZ being so biased and pathetic – most article written by children – TheDaily Blog hs to be one of the best sources of political information. Just enough ‘woke’ w/o going overboard like the American Huffpost which is just ridiculous now! As a rapidly aging activist, I tend twoards more action than less & a well behaved Hikoi is not enough. Aotearoas needs as full blown Lew Eegee – & it doesnt need to be a boy.