Te Pati Maori & the anatomy of Mathematics
Te Pati Maori’s internecine calamity unfolds in streams of comments in Facebook pages and online messages that is a spectrum of disappointment. That has been the best gauge as to what people think and where people stand. Going from the hundreds of comments on the recent posts on the official TPM Facebook page the tide is running maybe 2:1 or 3:1 against the expulsions.
The party co-leaders are getting blame, but there is maybe 15-20% support for them. There was more support, about a third, for the party itself as a unified movement than support expressed for the leadership. There was no-one at all who supported JT. Nil support for John Tamihere, and they weren’t neutral either, if they mentioned him at all it was 100% negative. One half hate him – the other half tolerate him as a necessary evil, but no-one is supporting him. About 10-15% say they will now vote Labour, about 5% Greens. People are disheartened, and just as many are perplexed as to what the reasons for the expulsions actually are. Egos are mentioned, but the search for rational explanations for the breakdown cannot rest on any one thing – the closest to a consensus on the problem being it’s JT and his associated nepotistic connections.
If the TPM official page – curated as it is to delete the worst rhetoric – cannot get anywhere near a majority of comments in support then it is probably a rupture more than a “split.” It is more like a disintegration. The unhappy voices of the online masses appear more like a popular rising to stop a coup than it does a spurned radical clique having a cry. The commentary on their own pages shows the leadership is clearly offside with the flax roots membership of the party.
Mainstream media has only reported the scant official statements from the MPs. None of the six MPs involved have said much at all this week, except for HRMC, which is astounding given the situation of such importance to the fate of the movement which was near 5% in polling only a few weeks ago and is now sub 3% and falling.
TPM seems to have the same percentage opinion poll support as they do MPs: it was 6% when they had 6, then it was 4% a couple of weeks ago when the TPM National Council expelled Ferris and Kapa-Kingi making their caucus 4, and now it crystalises that the other two are, sort of, neutral… and there’s only the two co-leaders left… and sure enough their polling is heading to 2%.
A rational group of people in charge of an organisation like that would have recognised and averted the problem quantified in the percentage equation above by keeping the caucus together by whatever means. Instead, JT wrote an essay about what happened titled “The anatomy of madness” in which he breathlessly recounted the supposed sins of Ferris and Kapa-Kingi which amounted to nothing of any substance and certainly nothing possibly breaching the party constitution that he nevertheless claimed was high treason and on that they were expelled by a Kangaroo court late night committee meeting where committee members were excluded. The supposed hara committed? They are accused of having… leadership ambition! None of which is even substantiated either, it’s an accusation built on innuendo (I can’t sift anything credible out of it). The real reason is those two want JT out and he was pre-empting the AGM showdown to get him rolled as President by having them expelled. There’s a lot of Koroneihana Street on top, but that is the foundation of this crisis.
JT has a glib line that politics is all about being able to add up. So, applying his maxim to his own anatomy of madness and the expulsions that were based on it, what result do we get? A subtraction. The anatomy of mathematics is that JT as party President has reduced the party caucus and half of that remaining caucus are keeping their options open.
The nuclear option of the party-hopping legislation to force by-elections if the expelled MPs don’t agree to be quiet – and this is what JT was daring them to do – has been effectively neutralised this week by HRMC on Thursday. RNZ News 20/11/2025:
Te Pāti Māori’s youngest MP has broken her silence, following the expulsion of her former colleagues, saying it has felt like “a divorce between two parents.”
“My answer to both sides face to face has been that you are all in the wrong.”
[…]
“I’ve heard both sides – trust me, I’ve heard it all,” she said, “sometimes I’ve wanted to give them all a hug and a hiding at the same time – all sides.”
[…]
She said she’d heard from “both sides” in the party’s split, and understanding both sides were “valid.” She wanted to bring the party together and figure out how she could be on both sides “without splitting.”
She said she wanted to take accountability, but acknowledged she didn’t have all the answers.
She said she wasn’t disrespecting any individuals, whānau or iwi, but it was “about having an honest conversation when we’re at fault, and so far, no one has taken ownership for the situation.”
The reality of the situation was that it was “a divide and conquer tactic, and there are no winners.”
[…]
She said both sides needed to be left to sort themselves out, and what was needed now was accepting, shifting and adapting to “new systems that can work with us and accept each other in differences, but the same purpose.”
“In a perfect world” she said she’d like to see Kapa-Kingi and Ferris returned to the party, but she also maintained confidence in Te Pāti Māori’s leadership.
[…]
She said she would be meeting with her electorate in two weeks time, who will “determine” her future in politics, “whether I’m still the right voice and whether this is still the right waka and movement.”
Oriini Kaipara, MIA. Who can blame her? Like the new kid discovering their foster family sold to them as benevolent turning out to be violent AF, Kaipara has retreated into silence. Te Ao News 12/11/2025:
On social media today, in a small statement, Oriini Kaipara told supporters she is “still here… standing by you, for you, and with you,” adding.
“The fight will continue, but for now rest is required… I want us to come together, to meet, to talk. Very soon… Our movement belongs to you.”
Neither Oriini or Hana are going to party-hop Takuta or Meno out of parliament – I think that is clear.
Debbie and Rawiri have made a pact with JT for worse or for worser and have avoided firm answers to the expulsion question: Debbie pretends now almost as though she were neutral and it is only a matter for the National Council to deal with whereas Rawiri is more clumsy and directly says he supports the expulsions.
Takuta has been disciplined in his going off the radar, I can’t find any breach of radio silence from him except hearing a bit of audio where he describes the scene of a reconciliation hui where they go around the room and everyone agrees to a “ceasefire” and when it came lastly to JT he exploded and vowed utu against Meno’s boys. A charmer.
Mariameno had things to say earlier in the week, RNZ News 17/11/2025
Kapa-Kingi spoke to Morning Report on Monday, saying lawyers had been talking – but she was willing to take the matter to the courts if it came to that.
On the face of it, Kapa-Kingi said she “had to” agree she had been expelled from the party but she would continue to push back and challenge it.
There was a “process in train” despite her not liking it and believing it “completely unjust”.
But she still believed in the movement and was hopeful there would still be a place for her in Te Pāti Māori – if the leadership changed.
Kapa-Kingi told Morning Report the leadership of Ngawera-Packer and Waititi was where the changes needed to occur.
This sounds a bit weak from Meno and her lawyer son, (until a couple of months ago Vice President of the party) Eru, will be frustrated by her conceding that the expulsion may be legal and she seems to have accepted it (?). A judicial review is being contemplated as she indicated and I would say they have an excellent chance against the party and to get their membership reinstated given the lack of cause. Why haven’t they taken an injunction already – or are they waiting for JT to make another blunder to make it easier to get? All the breaches of the constitution seem to be from JT at this point – not the “rogue” duo.
The situation is JT can orchestrate to get electorate committees replaced and two MPs ousted from party membership, but he can’t contrive to refuse to register scores of Takuta and Meno supporters at the AGM. How do you stop a majority at an AGM? I wouldn’t want to find out. When it comes to the masses it isn’t possible to control them in the way smaller groups can be manipulated. Any contrivance to by-pass democracy and undermine what is a genuine popular movement would be toxic to the party, maybe fatal.
Anyone in their right mind would say the problem is JT and his daughter, Kiri, as party General Manager. Removing them would solve 99% of the friction. Combined with the co-leader being both her husband and his son-in-law we see how none of them are in any position to exert the normal accountabilities that go with those roles. For example: I caught a clip of her tearful Instagram tell-all about the party implosion and thought there would be no way any professional person in that role in any other party would ever get away with going public like that and not being disciplined or sacked. The executive operation is dysfunctional going by what we can all see.
What is the value of JT if he can only subtract and not add? He has assiduously and ruthlessly smeared and manoeuvred to maintain control, but his tactics of poisoning the puna to ensure his enemies cannot return is at the expense of sickening his allies. Debbie and Rawiri have taken a hit to their mana by siding with JT and his discreditable shenanigans – you can see that in the comment sections. They look like your usual arsehole, shifty politicians after this caper, the gloss has gone and part of it will never come back after this Machiavellian blooding.
On the positive side, apart from deep experience and knowledge, JT has relationships to Labour, the very useful connection to Waipariera, and a lot of cash. The vaunted political instincts and acumen however must be discounted after this episode. These positives have to be weighed fairly against the negatives, but I’m arguing here that his value is becoming increasingly a nett negative that has gone past the point of recovery.
Whatever is to be done it must take place before the AGM on December 7 or it will be January 6 a la Roto-vegas. Eru resigning means the male Vice Presidency is probably up for election at the AGM too so a peace-maker candidate in that position is important to get right. I understand a hui is to take place today Sunday (23/11/2025) in the Tai Tokerau for Meno to discuss things, but who will come from the executive?
My preference for a new party president would be Hone Harawira to clunk some heads together, but he’s not interested in that or being an MP. He has put together an agenda, sensible and timely. Not sure if he will be attending the hui.
Hone Harawira’s points from RNZ News 19/11/2025
-
- Bring Meno and Takuta back into the team.
- Bring the whole team together to discuss a way forward.
- Outline plans to manage differences and disputes.
- Agree to a work-plan focussed on Te Pāti Māori kaupapa.
- Make a public declaration of commitment and action to our people.
- Take the team on a national reconciliation tour.
- Then get back to ^#$% work. We got a government to overthrow.
At last some one who can see the real problem .It is the MAORI party not the Tamihere party ,JT and his entitled daughter have to go if there is to be a party going foward .
And what else could Rawiri do other than stand for and with his father-in-law…
He could grow some balls and stand up for the party .Just because his mrs is JTs daughter does not mean he has to lower himself to their level .He is meant to be representing ALL TPM members not just the tamihere whanau .
How many political parties have you formed GordonW? How many socially useful and helpful projects have you been in and seen people developing clay feet as the saying goes, finding that they are not committed as yourself. Don’t be so quick to heave half a brick please, we all honour our society when we try and do something good for society even if we aren’t totally wise; having good intentions for betterment and succeeding with some of them is not everyday.
We need to nurture those who seem of ‘the right stuff’, watch them to keep them on track though. If they get help from family who are supportive, trustworthy and loyal that is good surely, it’s a big task to try and change course in politics.
nO NEED TO FORM A POLITICAL PARTY .But I did rescue a sporting club from white supremecy and turned it into the leading junior club in the country at the time .If you take a look at JTs body language he is a shadow of his former self and is reluctant to answer questions and when he does its some dumb shit like (its a beautiful thing )what sort of an answer is that .Leadership is about a team not a tight 3 as is the case in the Tamihere party .
I support JT and the current TMP leadership. The F&K stuff-up was EGO-driven and shows the stupidity of these two renegades especially after all the hard yards Maori have recently made to promote themselves. As I see it, F&K need to apologise profusely, claim they read the room incorrectly, and reassure their leadership they are ready to comply. In other words, throw themselves on the mercy of the TPM party, then shut up! If they can’t do this, then they will be out in the cold and have to be independents or form a new party – a daunting task. They also need to stop denying their actions! Surely they now realise that every action has a reaction! If F&K can’t be brought back into the fold, then their Maori voters need to vote for Labour or Greens this election or risk having the horrendous CoC loonies back to destroy and sell off our country to the highest bidders, and don’t kid yourselves that this isn’t the CoC aim. Do hope Maori voters will see where this is going! WHATEVER, we ALL need to look at the Big Picture and CLAIM NZ BACK FOR ITS PEOPLE!!!
Yes, I think you are right Patrice this is from the outside looking in. Anyway, if there are problems with the leadership the renegade MPs should have waited until after the election to cause all this disruption. Why don’t people support JT and the rest of the leadership seems very strange, very strange indeed.
The histrionic wakes people up from their somnolent shellberight attitude that has led NZAO to the brink of dangerous bubbling hot pools. But you are right too, too much is too much, knowing what is nice in its full meanings is what is good for the purpose of us being able to inject some healthy gumption into the right vein of true, committed co-operative Kiwis. You could now say I use too many analogies etc. but the same reasoning is behind my blather, and I enjoy words as pieces of human art work. Which they are.
Don’t try to damp us down with middle class, pretentious, academic disdain – now is the time to be a bit OTT in a positive society-affirming way, to live it up somewhat, take the opportunity to enjoy each other’s company and plan and combine working hours on a doable project that will be helpful for managing whatever future we are able to salvage from the present decimation.
4 in a row from Jacqueline – is there a reason for having this blah which is not explained input, on a blog that is grappling with serious stuff about life and all. A joke is good FTTT but with J it seems that the joke is on us, and it is insulting to those of us who are trying to discuss things in a reasoned way on a reasonably high level, to be regularly diverted from the task by a mental ankle-biter or malicious AI person-directed miasma.
I was looking at an old John Pilger book and saw that South Australia was used for testing nuclear bombs. Did you know that – so close to home additional to Muroroa? Perhaps we are next on the list, being helpful to the 5 Eyes strategy. I’ll just drop an immediately irrelevant fact into the discourse as J does. But it won’t be the same thing all the time.
Glad someone else is commenting on J.The nonsense dies not add to the argument from either side.
Re Nuclear tests it was done for the UK and aborigines sleeped on the ground because it was hot during the night .
Hi, re ‘J’ I believe the clue lies in her continuous use of Te Pou. That, or she really is a badly programmed robot. I had to stop reading them. Sorry ‘J’ if I’m wrong here!
to the point and sums it up
Oh yawn…as do all the other parties. Have you got anything else – of merit?
nO NEED TO FORM A POLITICAL PARTY .But I did rescue a sporting club from white supremecy and turned it into the leading junior club in the country at the time .If you take a look at JTs body language he is a shadow of his former self and is reluctant to answer questions and when he does its some dumb shit like (its a beautiful thing )what sort of an answer is that .Leadership is about a team not a tight 3 as is the case in the Tamihere party .
Oh like the COC represents every beneficiary and homeless person in NZ .Look at the bald gang leader and the scams he is trying to work to get free rent and low rates on his million dollar beach batch and the tax free 6 million profit on the houses he sold .
Yes KH their attendance record proves your point. What other occupation allows you to choose when you do or not attend work.