Tamaki Makarau by-election political earthquake: Winners, Losers and Predictions

I’ve covered politics in NZ for 33 years, and the Tamaki Makarau by-election is a political earthquake.

The win is beyond emphatic, it speaks to a sea change in how to leverage social media for elections and the new population demographic realities confronting Labour.

This win was as significant politically as Tamati Coffey beating Te Ururoa Flavell in Waiariki in 2017.

The polarisation of NZ politics and the right using Māori as a political punching bag have generated a backlash that is almost sectarian.

Labour’s message of working together falls deaf on the ears of a new generation of Māori youth who have heard David Seymour.

Doc’s sectarianism post probably earned the Māori Party votes, not took them away…

…this was a bruising encounter for Labour.

Willie Jackson was called a colonised traitor by Māori Party activists…

…Labour had brought back their machine and had door knocked a good old fashioned campaign that felt positive and strong on the ground.

Peeni was head and shoulders over Oriini in terms of gravitas and experience but the younger electorate want to send MPs who disrupt Parliament, not work together with the Coloniser.

The Māori Party won the by-election battle but could end up costing the Left the election war.

There were of course winners and losers.

WINNERS:

Social Media First Strategy – Māori Party have created a unique online environment and worked the social media first strategy to prove that it can work beyond the protests against the Treaty Principles Referendum. This matters because 70% of the Māori population are under 40 and online is their life.

Labour Party Faction who want to cut a deal with NZF – We are already seeing The Standard, (which is like the Chris Trotter of blogs), arguing for Labour to work with NZF and there is a faction inside Labour who believe Māori Party radicalism will scare the bejesus out of middle NZ. Stuart Nash appearing at the NZF conference this weekend is the opening phase of that back channel manoeuvring.

Sean Plunket, Mike Hosking, Heather du Plessis-Allan, Damien Grant, Winston Peters, David Seymour, The Centrist, Reality Check Radio, Don Brash, The NZ Herald, Groundswell, The Campaign Company, Taxpayers’ Union, NZ Initiative, Winston Peters, Peter Williams and Atlas Network – They can’t believe their fucking luck. They will sing in chorus that the Māori Party are so sectarian that they will never work with Labour and they will use this song to gloss over their own economic vandalism, explosion of poverty and inequality while selling $5million mansions to overseas buyers. Expect to see Doc’s instagram post to be an actual ACT Party advert.

Or NZ First advert.

Or Hobson’s Pledge Billboard.

Etc etc etc.

Identity Politics + Polarisation – The more ACT, NZF and National have bashed Māori, the more sectarian the backlash.

 

LOSERS:

The Wider Left – The Māori Party becoming sectarian strangles off any chance of a Labour/Green/MP Government.

Labour – Labour say they need to win back Auckland, but if you can’t win a Māori electorate in Auckland what’s the chance of that happening?

Peeni – He is one of the best Left wing politicians the country has, losing by this margin is a terrible humiliation and highlights how brutal politics can be.

Democracy – A pitiful, pitiful, pitiful turn out shows how distracted and apathetic people are.

 

PREDICTIONS: 

What SHOULD happen is this.

Labour acknowledge this generational shift and lean into this new dynamic by sitting down with the Māori Party and actually codifying an alliance with the Māori Party in the Māori Electorates whereby voters give the Māori Party their electorate vote and the Labour Party their Party vote.

This would generate an overhang that would give a Labour/Green/MP Government such an MMP advantage that we could rule for 3 terms.

What will probably happen?

The Māori Party will become as insufferable as a woke middle class activist circa 2016 and end up driving away voters so that National win again.

There is a chance right now if Labour and Māori Party cut a deal in the Māori Electorates whereby the Left could get a 9 year winning streak.

Imagine what we could do for 3 terms.

All that is preventing that is ego.

Everyone keeps talking about how harmful and terrible this Government is, but no one on the Left seems to be wanting to put together a winning strategy that actually defeats that Government.

 

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