So what now? Never ending pandemic, Gang war, Climate meltdown, geopolitical conflict & economic inflation black hole?

ByMartyn Bradbury

While many of the NZ Woke were attempting to sell concerns about the Wuhan outbreak as xenophobic in early 2020, TDB was one of the first NZ media to argue that this wasn’t an identity politics issue and in fact had all the ingredients of a global pandemic.

TDB was one of the first to claim the borders would be shut for at least 5 years.

TDB was one of the first to point out the inflation fears driven by supply side shortages.

TDB was one of the first to point out that the Lab leak wasn’t as impossible as the woke claimed.

So, where are we now and what’s coming?

 

CURRENT NZ SITUATION:

The NZ State borrowing billions to keep wages paid and property speculators speculating has bypassed the hyper tourism, exploitation of international students and exploitation of migrant workers and created near full employment environment and a two tiered culture between the property class and renters.

Labour won an unprecedented MMP victory off the back of Jacinda’s courageous leadership but that could all evaporate if we get a serious Covid outbreak that is perceived to have entered NZ by incompetence. The challenge will be to roll out the vaccine without glaring examples of screw ups.

Saving NZ from Covid is one thing, rebuilding a neoliberal culture and economy to survive in a world where globalization is dead is however beyond Labour. Jacinda’s comments yesterday on the need for more globalization highlights how the acolytes of MFAT still control everything.

Labour are making a case for a stronger state when it comes to water, health and universal Union membership but that same vision of a stronger state isn’t being expanded to a plethora of other issues.

22512 are on the emergency waiting list, 4000 children live in motels, 190000 children live in poverty, entire generations are locked out of home ownership and the planet is melting.

Labour don’t have the intellectual courage to force reform in the state sector so the same neoliberal feudal Wellington bureaucracy continues to hamper welfare, mental health and housing.

Labour risk the 2023 election if a Covid outbreak occurs or if the Hate Speech legislation sparks a tsunami of complaints from Woke activists seeking vengeance on a thousand social media fights.

 

Never Ending pandemic:

The madness of Fiji’s anti vaccination culture will see a full blown outbreak there and around the Pacific. The UK are creating a maelstrom of hybrid mutations with the capacity to bypass vaccines and we will need annual booster shots. The borders will not open again for another 5 years. The sooner we appreciate that globalization is dead and that self sufficiency is the only way forward, the sooner we can plan for an economy not reliant on exploiting migrants, exploiting international students and using hyper tourism. To date the Government have shown no signs of acknowledging this.

 

Gang war:

The domestic gangs have come about through alienation, poverty and cultural resentment. To conflate them to serious organised crime misdiagnoses the problem.

What is happening now is an unprecedented moment in the NZ crime landscape.

501s bringing a level of violence from the Australian underworld into NZ has created a vast power struggle between the domestic gangs and the 501 syndicates. The syndicates have Mexican cartel contacts and this is what has sparked a meth price and turf war.

Allowing the South American Cartels ANYWHERE near us is extremely dangerous.

NZ is the sleepy Shire, the South American Cartels are the Nazgul. Allowing the Nazgul to set up a local store in the weekend organic Hobbit Farmers Market doesn’t bode well for the Hobbits.

There must be a multi pronged response to get the Cartels out of here. They bring with them an uber violence and sophistication of corruption outside the scope of our experience.

 

Climate meltdown:

Look, I appreciate all white people are racist, all men are evil and anyone in support of free speech is a Nazi – but the planet is melting…

Human-induced global heating ‘causes over a third of heat deaths’

Between 1991 and 2018, human activity contributed to 37% of all heat-related deaths in locations studied

Canada heatwave: Hundreds of sudden deaths recorded
Hundreds of sudden deaths, many of them suspected of being heat-related, have been reported during Canada’s record-breaking heatwave, officials say.

 

Historic heatwave, extreme drought and wildfires plague North American west

US Pacific north-west and Canada see soaring temperatures and drought fuels flames as crisis illustrates climate breakdown

… The largest student climate change protest group in NZ last month cancelled itself in a ritualistic  wokeocide because of historic racism and in recognition of woke dogma that that all white people are irredeemable racists.

While the identity politics clique continue to find ways to undermine solidarity in their ever grim critical race theory roulette of wounds and grievance, the planet melts.

The only winners by self mutilating broad church climate crisis protest movements for identity politics dogma are the polluters causing climate change.

The ferocity of the climate and constant science updates showing the worst case scenarios are becoming the only scenario is going to force a reckoning.

We either accept the future will be vastly more hostile with devastating climate events cascading constantly causing mass climate refugee movements and failed states or we pretend technology and recycling is going to save us.

I believe the former is going to happen and it will demand a radical reshape of our economy and military positioning.

The speed of tipping points makes this a 10 year transition.

Endlessly fighting over identity politic hierarchy when the fate of our planet is at stake seems remarkably egotistical.

 

Geopolitical Conflict:

Our complex relationship with China is actually very simple. We are desperate to sell basic bitch milk powder and China is rich enough to exploit our desperation in the hope of gaining what they really want – our water.

China buys the National Party out and buys the Labour Party out so as to keep their interests safe.

Culturally National never talk about Chinese influence because their farmer, banker and speculator voters need that Chinese money and the Left don’t talk about Chinese influence because it’s xenophobic.

We need to decouple urgently from China economically while acknowledging China’s main influence in our country is through intimidation of their diaspora living here. As the recent investigation into Chinese spies in our Universities highlights, NZ culture needs to embrace and connect with our Chinese-New Zealand community so that they feel more loved by us than fear CCP activists.

Biden’s Intelligence report into the Wuhan Lab leak theory will be out within 2 months. A flash point in geopolitics is possibly looming between China and America and we must endeavor to chart an independent position that protects NZs interests because no one else will.

 

Economic Inflation Black Hole:

This chart matters because of the enormous debt we have…

Small increase in OCR will hit mortgage-holders hard – economist

“The flipside is that someone pays,” said Bagrie. “So if ANZ is correct and we get 100 basis points’ worth of OCR increases in the next 30-odd months, you’re going to see the likes of a one-year fixed mortgage rate go from 2.25 to 3.25 percent. [That’s] still really, low, still really cheap money, but that’s about a 45 percent increase in your interest bill, and that’s not a small number.” 

…Covid has seen the main banks of the West sink trillions more into quantitive easing to deal with the economic whiplash the pandemic has created and in NZ we saw with the pumping of billions into the pockets of property speculators how our own house prices have skyrocketed.

This game of printing money to pump into property and stock market speculation to create a false illusion of wealth can continue playing as long as hyper inflation doesn’t overturn the apple cart.

But what happens if it does?

‘Perfect storm’: Cost of living rises 0.8 percent, tipped to increase further

Household living costs rose 0.8 percent in the March 2021 quarter, the latest Statistics New Zealand Consumer Price Index survey shows.

Consumer prices are on their way up, as petrol, transport and rent are becoming more expensive.

What happens if hyper inflation does suddenly explode out of nowhere?

To date all the inflationary pressures caused by this mass printing has led to driving up property prices and stock markets without touching the essentials and basics of life, but one of the impacts of Covid has been to shut down the global supply chains which is now creating scarcity of products that can’t get to market because they are bottlenecked at a Port.

This seems insanely dangerous because all those hyper inflation pressures will immediately jump to the very basics everyone uses.

Your Kiwisaver going up and your property value climbing is one thing, paying $15 for a loaf of bread and $20 for milk is completely another.

To date the cost rises have been in things poor people have to pay, transport, rent and gas. That means food will be cut, hungry people get angry quickly.

There are already arson attacks on Landlords…

Auckland house fire blamed on frustration over skyrocketing rents

A resident of a street where an empty house went up in flames on Saturday morning thinks someone angry about the housing crisis could be to blame. 

…after every great pandemic throughout history, the peasant revolt in the 1300s, the London riots of the 1600s and the social unrest right after the Influenza pandemic of 1918, society always goes through intense social change brought on by the economic collapse lockdowns generate.

If the bottlenecks of supply chains are blocked unleashing a tsunami of hyper inflation on the goods everyone requires for life, Central Banks will have no choice but to lift inflation rates to desperately attempt to curtail that hyper inflation, which of course will mean the ocean of low interest debt that has been created to fuel hyper speculation will suddenly start feeling the true gravity of trillions in borrowing.

This is the new ‘normal’. Constant eruptions of external global disruptions that cause widespread damage.  The climate crisis will simply exacurbate these economic meltdowns.

 

Conclusion:

Imagine how much worse the housing crisis would be with pre-Covid tourism?

If we accept that Covid will require annual injections, that mutations will continue to threaten to mutate and reinfect, and we acknowledge our supply chains will be marred by lockdowns in poorer countries overru by the virus – then why are we hurrying to open the borders?

Add to this the increase in climate extremes that will drive migration, shouldn’t we be keeping the borders shut rather than open?

Many of the free market neoliberal cows are being slaughtered, why try and resurrect them?

Right now NZ voters are forgiving Labour for 190000 kids in poverty, 22521 on emergency social housing lists, mental health sector failures, Oranga Tamariki abuse and locking generations out of home ownership all because Jacinda is keeping Covid out.

All that forgiveness evaporates in a second if Covid gets into an unvaccinated NZ and forces another lock down.

The future is set with external shocks, the tyranny of our distance is now our strength.

We need Fortress Aotearoa – a focus on protecting the realm of NZ while urgently becoming self sufficient.

The climate crisis future we face will cause more pandemics and more mass migration.

Globalism is dead. Why race to reopen doors to a dead and dying planet?

Turns out Muldoon was just ahead of the curve.

 

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30 Comments

  1. If you are expecting sane policies from the neo-fascist LINO government you will be disappointed at every turn, Martyn.

    LINO are there to promote the short-term interests of banks, corporations and opportunists, and will drive NZ into destitution and environmental collapse in the pursuit of the insane agendas of banks, corporations and opportunists. Indeed, the fuckwits that constitute the LINO government are so stupid they promote not just the destruction of their children’s future but promote the destruction of their own future!

    With America on fire -a natural consequence of decades of stupidity- and the Amazon, the so-called lungs of the planet now emitting more CO2 than absorbing:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-now-emitting-more-co2-than-it-absorbs

    with Artic Sea ice at a record low and melting fast:

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/07/arctic-sea-ice-disappearing-fast.html

    and with the Ponzi financial system now at the turning point for collapse

    ‘That evidence of inflation continued in the data as well with producer prices rising more than the high rise expected, now up +7.3% from a year ago at an accelerating pace.

    They were up at an even faster pace in Canada, rising a startling +16% on the same basis in June – although there are signs this is tailing off there.’

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/111302/us-beige-book-reports-growth-and-price-pressures-bank-canada-mimics-rbnz-china-fdi

    I believe we have only another few more months of the circus orchestrated by LINO, and that we will be in extraordinary deep shit one year from now.

    Needless to say, the talking heads of the mainstream media and so=called economists will assure the masses that recovery is just around the corner.

    Well, in a sense recovery is just round he corner because we can’t recover from the corrupt, toxic system until it collapses, and collapse is just round the corner.

    Needless to say, with close-to-zero preparation and most people firmly locked into business-as-usual as a consequence of the continual lying by politicians and the mainstream media, we are headed for mayhem. Very soon.

    1. Well said. I for one have missed your intelligent and well informed views on TDB.

      1. Agree Kevin. AFKTT has been swamped by all the trolls infesting this site. Go hard AFKTT and drown those fuckers out.

    1. Today’s boat’s can be super yachts or even private jets. What they lack in people they make up in consumption, buying up assets only to leave again suddenly as the whim takes them. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117047209/waiwera-group-run-by-russian-businessman-placed-in-liquidation and getting rich off others. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/billionaire-peter-thiel-makes-fortune-after-sweetheart-deal-with-government/B22JSOU3762DJCI53XCR4MLRHU/

      Now you bring your peasant workforce with you for the plebs in NZ to pay for their housing, health and schooling of peasant workers on close to minimum wages. https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018791897/james-cameron-explains-dairy-cows-on-wairarapa-farm

      NZ also welcomes the Meth delivered in boats. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/regional/306325/more-meth-found-in-record-drug-bust. New ways to distribute. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-chat-app-young-kiwis-are-buying-and-selling-drugs-on/QGDDRKPFXPC67YPH3UG72KZOFU/

      And the fisher’s with Covid because the local workers left after their co workers got decapitated.

  3. If interest rates rise we will see pain of indebted home owners and a possible property bubble burst. It could all be very ugly.
    Labour wont win the next election. The economy is going to be terrible by then and people will flock to Judy.

  4. Meanwhile the lobby groups and media keep braying we need all these critical workers.

    The reality is that our country can’t get anything done anymore as many of the wage rates are from 20 years ago and the better operators are being put out of business by the plethora of cowboys, cash workers that are everywhere, and all their new workers need housing, health care, schooling, mental health and the like…. pressure everywhere for government services but the people coming into NZ have less skills than those who we are driving out of NZ.

    Fencing, painting and decorating ‘cowboys’ an ‘unfortunate reality’
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/fencing-painting-and-decorating-cowboys-an-unfortunate-reality/W3T5DLDUX7PGUDLAMXVHKVHKW4/

    Typical type of news article.

    Covid-19 worker shortage: Auckland restaurants Cassia, Sidart, French Cafe, forced to close for two weeks
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-worker-shortage-auckland-restaurants-cassia-sidart-french-cafe-forced-to-close-for-two-weeks/J33IOG6VDQAR2UQE6ZS347AP3I/

    Nobody points out, why would you close 3 restaurants for 2 weeks when you have over 50 staff and then are you bothering to pay them while you close – sounds like a disaster business owner blaming others which is typical of NZ business!

    “She said the businesses required about 65 staff to run, but was now down to about 50 because of the border closures and immigration rules that made it difficult for people to renew their work visas.”

    Ok, closing 3 restaurants because you are short of 15 staff our of 65?? Sounds ridiculous and a scam!

    Do you really need all those staff and wouldn’t you just close 1 restaurant and deploy your staff to the other 2 restaurants? Do you really care about your customers, who actually will stop coming if you are that incompetent you can’t manage your business. What does that say about the food quality? (Apparently they bought the formally successful business a few years ago) https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/food-news/104132158/the-french-cafe-sold-to-the-owners-of-sidart-and-cassia

    Sounds fishy and clearly if the Labour inspectorate goes looking will no doubt find some strange going on’s.

    Sadly there is huge exploitation in NZ now and business owners are more dysfunctional, and creating profit by not paying workers and keeping wages from 20 years ago. They then get to expand their operations and buy out better operators!

    With Covid it’s harder to keep the Ponzi going so they are desperately trying to get the real cash, which is often from the new workers paying $50k to come to NZ for the ‘job’.

    Stop the visas, get the Labour inspectorates out in force to the businesses ‘going under’ and NZ will stop the exploitation!

    Likewise decapitating your workers might be why they use Russian Covid Fishers now (only have to pay $21k reparation). https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fishing-company-talleys-group-fined-over-decapitation-of-worker/VVN3JKVNG3VSE4SZDLHR7MTO6U/

  5. Covid19 is the best thing to happen to NZ. Closing the border for years has put a stop to the immigration exploitation and restricting wage growth encouraged by National. Closing the border has killed hyper-tourism which again exploited immigrants, polluted and looted for greed. But the best bit is – National doesn’t have a clue how to deal with Covid19. Zip Nada Nothing. Open the borders!! All you right wing nutjobs are living in a dream.

    1. Yes agree with you GreenBus and how come the tourisms people down south are getting 4.5 million for their mental health yet when the freezing works and factories closed down many working class low income people got f.. k all. Tourisms and hospitality, farming, horticulture and others slave labour markets have been exposed by the Covid. And now we have the National party Maori bashing they have tired from Covid bashing and have moved onto there next victims.

      1. Yes the worried well, need all the money.

        Also apparently psychiatrists in NZ in the DHB’s are now full of huge numbers of people wanting gender transition….

    3. Cuba not only has one of the highest literacy rates in the world, but also has so many trained doctors and nurses they can export them to help other countries during disasters and pandemics. Funny when you don’t have ‘consumables’ you can concentrate on human power which starts with educating people for free to help others.

    4. oh and Cuba has no immigration so they somehow manage to train all those doctors and nurses in excess of their own needs without foreign tertiary money – you know what used to happen as the norm in most countries.

      There is nothing wrong with a small amount of immigration but not when individuals start buying up multiple citizenships and assets all around the world that they barely know about and bring they own minimum waged workforce with them so they can keep worker pay rates stagnant from 20 years ago and make more profits, and every day there are huge movements of people with the associated carbon emissions destroying the environment, then something is wrong.

  6. Who is going to be left holding the mortgage when the music stops? The waterworks will start and mummy and daddy will have to come and pick them up from the party

  7. Technology has made goods cheaper and easier to produce. Giving out ‘free money’ and expanding the money supply has caused hyperinflation of asset prices, namely property.

    Socialism just continues to expand the money supply and limit personal freedom. One clear moral hazard is working people becoming homeless, landlords bolstering their property portfolios and the unemployed living better [in new builds] than full-time-workers.

    GDP-Growth/Money-Supply-Expansion is required to keep the current debt based monetary system functioning; so things will get worse.

    People have cried out for decades for a return to the Gold Standard. Unfortunately gold is unauditable, hard to transfer, store and HIGHLY financialized [more ‘paper gold’ than gold].

    Central Banks will never stop printing, they figuratively have to use one credit-card to make interest payments on another. This can go on indefinitely until people refused to accept the currency (it becomes worthless).

    People will stop working if their incomes can’t provide shelter, they won’t even have the means to work. Bitcoin will probably have to become the Global Reserve Currency. This will constrain governments ability to impoverish their citizens via socialist-money-printing. Yet allow a social license for printing the domestic currency in emergencies.

    Under a Bitcoin Standard; mismanagement of domestic currencies is punished by citizens moving their value into Bitcoin (the Global Reserve Currency) and the Forex markets valuing down domestic currencies of countries which print fait money, rather than producing goods-n-services.

    Real interest rates in NZ are negative, therefore money has NO time value. Trillions continue to be printed globally to inflate asset prices. Some kind of Exponential Debt Collapse is likely. Germany, Japan, Europe, then probably America.. then the world.

    Good or Bad.. Right or Wrong.. Bitcoin or Not.. the current Monetary System has reached its endgame and very soon attempts will be made at a Bretton Woods 2.0

  8. “‘And what rough beast its hour come round at last…………………….?’
    Pointless now to shriek and wail in public. It is here, scabrous and encrusted with the filth of ages.
    Never mind debates. Underground and clandestine is the place to be. Everything must be thrashed out thoroughly. It may be necessary to turn oneself inside out and entirely upside down in order to understand what the citizens of our world are up against.
    It may be necessary to take a look at publications you normally would scorn to look at. To consider possibilities never before imagined. Nuts though they may appear to be.
    If you are unable to do this then kiss life on earth goodbye.
    https://www.newdawnmagazine.com/articles/who-really-controls-the-world
    You might consider buying yourself a copy of Vol.15 No3 of this publication now in bookstores. It has an article ‘Manifesto of the New Magi’ by Alexandr Dugin and Sergey Kuryokhin. Kuryokhin became famous in Russia when during a discussion on TV in 1991 he suddenly announced that Lenin was a mushroom. He had a scientific explanation for this and went on to declare that all the Bolsheviks were in fact mushrooms.
    To appreciate the peculiar Russian humour of this you need to know who the Bolsheviks were.
    Dugin and Kuryokhin’s manifesto is typically Russian with statements one can agree with together with others that are a bit baffling. Turn yourselves inside out. There is nothing else left to do.

  9. We are not going to have an “Aotearoa” unless we begin to care about her – about this land that we live on and STOP exploiting her, STOP carving up her body, the land itself, STOP selling it off to foreign regimes and mega-corporations and others who are not from Aotearoa, who neither know nor care about this land!!!!!!!

    It has to stop. Stop selling this land to overseas interests!!
    It is not theirs to sell!!

    Same for water, and more so. Water is life itself. No more privatisation – yet the potential for privatisation, the readiness for privatisation of our water, is already written into the new water-grab legislation.

    Wake up!! Wake up!!! Wake up!!! ..please..

    We need to place limits on the powers of govts, of any and all future govts of AO/ NZ, as they cannot seem to do this themselves. They are there to protect the land and to protect the people, not to exploit, not to sell us off along with our land and our water.

  10. It is going to get very ugly before it gets any better in AotearoaNZ if the above kicks in. Put in those rain water tanks and composting toilets people, bury some cash and other essentials, learn some survival skills. When the ATMs stop working it will all be on!

    Today will be a test for the farmers and other provincial oafs to show their strength in public with their little tractor and ute protests–make no mistake some of these people will brutalise and shoot the working class before they ever take on the 1%ers and their enablers.

    Marxist, Dave Brown, is the writer on TDB closest to the truth–working class organisation is what is needed–street by street, town by town, city by city, the people need to organise and take over from the managerial class.

  11. So this is how it all comes to an end, then; ever-increasing climate related tragedies, as the build-up of pollution manifests as more extreme droughts and more extreme inundations:

    ‘At least 58 dead in Germany as heavy rains bring catastrophic flooding
    Parts of Belgium, France and Netherlands also badly affected as unprecedented rainfall wreaks havoc’

    ‘“It was catastrophic,” said 65-year-old Edgar Gillessen, whose family home was damaged. “All these people living here, I know them all. I feel so sorry for them, they’ve lost everything,” he told Reuters. “A friend had a workshop over there, nothing standing, the bakery, the butcher, it’s all gone. It’s scary. Unimaginable.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/14/firefighter-drowns-and-army-deployed-amid-severe-flooding-in-germany

    ‘US west and Canada brace for another heatwave amid more than 70 wildfires
    Combined area of blaze is about 1,562 sq miles while next heatwave expected to start on Saturday’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/heatwave-us-west-canada-wildfires

    And all this chaos is against a backdrop of declining energy availability through decades of overuse and devaluation of money in the system by central banks. And massive population overshoot of course.

    1. And our useless news media/ tv give this a minute or two coverage here and there if we’re lucky.
      There is no real news any more – just a brief flick of a camera showing some flames or a house getting washed then on to the “HA! HA! HA!” crap!

      Then, hours of pointless stupidity, garbage and mush, endless “buy me!” advertisements and – Nothingness.

      The planet is burning, drowning, getting torn apart by mega-storms.
      The powers that be say, “Nothing to see here, folks”.

      1. Yeah, well they have to keep the idiotic masses consuming -consuming their own futures- in order to keep the Ponzi financial system going just a little bit longer.

        A mass rejection of the consumption bullshit would result in rich pricks (and prickesses) losing their rorts.

        They’re going to lose their rorts anyway, of course, and very likely their lives
        as well once this thing goes down. But their arrogance and stupidity know no bounds. That particularly applies to TVNZ and the other so-called news sources.

  12. We could always regulate cannabis ( a plant, just like Coffee) to help build local business and reduce gang involvement…sigh…..

  13. We foolishly gave our freedom away because we were afraid gran might die of the China Virus. But now the bureaucrats and politicians the capital cities of the world have had a taste of total control, they don’t want to give it back. Now they want to interfere in the intimate details of our lives just because they can.
    Forever.
    It’s the ‘new normal’.
    Build Back Better – my arse!

    Wearing a mask, even when you’re fully vaccinated has nothing to do with science – it’s an act of obeisance to our overlords.

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