Putin is going to use a nuke – what Xi does next?
It is clear now that Putin’s real danger is not in the pain he is about to inflict, but the pain he can endure.
I called him invading the Ukraine after the Kazakstan coup attempt which the Russian’s concluded was another Western attempt at hybrid war.
While Kyiv is symbolic, I think the real goal here is Odessa and consolidating the East and South of the Ukraine.
Putin is clearly looking to legacy and has planned for a conflict for at least 7 years.
Putin’s mentor Alexander Dugin has argued for the invasion of Ukraine…
Russian intellectual Alexander Dugin is the main architect of the neo-Russian imperialism called Eurasianism. In a series of lectures, articles, and books, Dugin has sought to “rehabilitate fascism in Russia.” He has borrowed from obscure 19th and 20th century political theories, adopted a sympathetic interpretation of Nazism that attempts to separate it from the Holocaust, and sought to thwart what he and many Russians believe is a conspiracy led by the United States to contain Russia. Dugin has called for a “Russian spring” and the domination of Europe through Ukraine.
…those who surround Putin all believe this grand destiny narrative…
Emboldened by perceptions of the West’s terminal decline, no one in this group loses much sleep about the prospect of an open-ended confrontation with America and Europe. In fact, the core members of this group would all be among the main beneficiaries of a deeper schism.
Consider Putin’s war cabinet, which is the locus of most decision-making. It consists of Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Security Council; Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB (the main successor agency of the KGB intelligence service); Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service; and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Their average age is 68 years old and they have a lot in common. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin famously described as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, was the defining episode of their adult lives. Four out of five have a KGB background, with three, including the president himself, coming from the ranks of counterintelligence. It is these hardened men, not polished diplomats like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who run the country’s foreign policy.
In recent years, members of this group have become very vocal. Patrushev and Naryshkin frequently give lengthy interviews articulating their views on global developments and Russia’s international role. According to them, the American-led order is in deep crisis thanks to the failure of Western democracy and internal conflicts spurred by the promotion of tolerance, multiculturalism and respect for the rights of minorities.
…I think the cabal see themselves as part off 1000 year Christian tradition and that this war is for the soul of Russia.
We don’t appreciate the power and importance and motivator Russian Orthodox Christianity plays out in all of this.
In 988AD, Vladimir the Great, whom Putin takes his name from, mass baptised 1000 Russians at the River Nee-Proh in what has become the founding spiritual moment in Orthodox Russian Christianity as the moment Russia became Christian and led to a cultural narrative structure that Moscow is the third Rome and was a homeland for Christianity.
What isn’t widely known is that Putin himself is a very staunch Russian Orthodox Christianand that he has used the Russian Orthodox Church as an enormous control mechanism over the Russian people.
Putin has spent billions rebuilding the Churches smashed down by Communism and uses his relationship with the Church for political advantage. It was the Orthodox Church who first praised Putin for annexing Crimea, a region with much religious importance for the Church.
Recently the Ukrainian branch of the Orthodox Church severed ties with the Russian branchbecause they felt Putin was having too much influence over it.
If Moscow is the third Rome, Kyiv is the second Jerusalem.
Putin sees himself as part of a long line of Christian Defenders of the true faith.
A new angry white Christianity is erupting here with intense violence, and misreading the drivers of Putin means we will fail at stopping him.
If Putin is doing this for God and the soul of Mother Russia, the dead are evidence of faith, not failure!
We keep telling ourselves Putin blundered, but I see a leader who bullied his military into. conflict he intends to settle with terrifying violence.
I believe Putin only sees Russia gaining power from a global order in upheaval where he becomes the Lord of Chaos.
Next stop will be Bosnia/Herzegovina…
As The World Watches Ukraine, Possibility Of Disintegration Looms In Bosnia
…and I believe he intends to seed conflict between Iran and Israel by giving Iran nuclear technology.
in 2016 Putin started building a Doomsday bunker.
In 2017 he saw Dr Strangelove for the first time ever with Director Oliver Stone.
Last year he completed his Doomsday Bunker.
I fear Putin wants to use an extreme event of violence to terrify NATO into freezing. I think that event will either be a battlefield Nuke, chemical weapons attack or bio-weapon.
After that event he will get the Ukraine to agree to anything and I think intends to isolate Russia from the West via cultural and Economic sanctions while he spreads chaos around the world as a major destabiliser.
I think Putin sees himself as a champion of the true Christian faith and the Lord of Chaos. Russia wins when global order collapses.
The real economic pain of the sanctions against Russia haven’t hit us yet, but they are coming.
$5 a litre petrol prices and $10 a loaf bread will cause massive damage here in NZ, imagine how it will impact the rest of the world?
The last time wheat prices were this high they caused a bread price destabilisation throughout the Middle East that sparked the Spring Uprising. Indeed the Collectivisation of the Ukrainian wheat harvests in the early 1930s had a knock on effect to the economic down turn that resulted in World War 2.
Putin is willing to take enormous economic pain right now to ultimately derail the global economy by the end of the year.
Fear the masochist who can switch into sadism.
How does Xi respond?
John Key’s ‘All our cows in one Beijing paddock’ strategy he pushed during his decade in power has back fired spectacularly on NZ as geopolitical tensions grow.
All that money we sunk into intensive irrigation so that parched plains could yield grass for intensive dairy has led us into an economic relationship that is very bad for us…
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- New Zealand’s dairy exports to China are worth more than $5 billion annually
- Farmers say the country is a “major player” and losing that business would have a “massive impact” on their lives
- Experts say New Zealand is “significantly exposed” to China on trade and is mindful of any reprisals
…put aside the climate crisis causing gases this intensification causes, put aside the water it steals and pollutes, put aside all that – we have an intense economic relationship with an authoritarian regime that treats human rights like they are optional and who is backing Russia’s terrible war in the Ukraine.
Farmers screamed that Jacinda was a socialist, seeing as Xi is paying their bills and propping up their farms so much, who is the real Red under the Bed here?
When China is putting $5billion into Dairy Farmers pockets annually, I think it’s important of us to ask, ‘who’s your daddy’?
This economic friction will only intensify. Putin has upended the rule based global system and this war in Ukraine with all its ramifications are barely calculated, but China and Russia are bound in this conflict as the first nascent kick of a new power block against the West.
That puts us squarely on the chopping block for geopolitical retaliation in the months and years to come as this new world order pushes back and China encroaches deeper into the Pacific.
Add the economic stress from China’s zero tolerance approach to Covid which keeps crushing supply chains and we have a perfect gravity of economic stress and geopolitical interests combining to create a double punch to the NZ economy.
That’s why this is so serious…
China to sign first Pacific security deal which will give them warships on Australia’s doorstep
China and Solomon Islands are set to sign off on a security deal that will see Chinese warships based in the Pacific and shift the balance of power in Australia’s region.
The agreement will give China the power to use its military to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in Solomon Islands and give Beijing a base for its navy less than 2000 kilometres off Australia’s coast.
The base would be the first time Australia has had a strategic adversary within striking distance of its coastline since World War II.
“China may, according to its own needs and with the consent of Solomon Islands, make ship visits to, carry out logistical replenishment in and have stopover and transition in the Solomon Islands,” the draft framework agreement states.
…this is our Economic Overlord encroaching directly into our Pacific neighbourhood with a military expansion and a surreptitious ‘security’ agreement that protects Chinese interests in the Solomon Islands.
The recent unrest there saw Chinese businesses burnt down by the locals who resent Chinese migration and political influence. By propping up the Government with ‘security’ offers and a Military base to protect those interests, China is stepping into our sphere of influence through insidious means masquerading as security.
It is a bold expansion to announce at a time of geopolitical instability aimed at testing America’s resolve.
this move by China is a dangerous escalation and shows very clearly why it is a national security issue for NZ to decouple its economy from China has soon as fucking possible.
They are an authoritarian, mass surveillance State committing genocide and body organ harvesting for Christ’s sake, I don’t care how much fucking butter and wood they buy, we want to be very much at arms length here.
Likewise, we don’t want to be a stooge for the American Military Industrial complex either!
We need to chart an independent foreign affairs perspective that isn’t beholden to Beijing OR Washington!
War is coming.
“And I heard, as it were, the noise of thunder
One of the four beasts saying,
‘Come and see.’ and I saw, and behold a brown bear”
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Russia and China (and the other BRICS Nations) are making a stand against the West, and at this stage it appears the USA empire will lose it’s grip on the totalanarianism it is seeking aggressively. But, hey, they have used the bomb before and they are a bunch of panicking incompetents, so who knows what madness is coming?
Or Putin is a god bothering psychopath and Xi is drunk on his eternal leadership status. There is an awful lot of blaming the US and West, without acknowledging that Russia and China are equally as bad. No one is forcing China to help themselves to the Pacific, in fact their imperialism has brought the US back into the region.
How about a few less cows and more wheat growing.
If the US did not exist NZ would be owned by China by now.
Sorry, ex kiwi, but the Japanese would have taken both us and China in WW2 if not for the USA. Get your Yellow Peril right!
If Putin takes Odessa then NATO must take it back at all cost. Losing access to the Black Sea will slowly destroy Ukraine.
Spot on, which is why Russia will do it. A rump state infested by internecine warfare between proto fascist Galicians would suit Russian aims well. Then theres the issue of who will bear the debt for all those Western weapons?
[If Putin takes Odessa then NATO must take it back at all cost.]
NATO doesn’t exist except on paper. It would have to be some country that “takes it back”. If that country were to be the USA, it would risk starting a nuclear war.
The Ukraine is finished. It’s just a matter of how much they lose, depending how many more Rusian lifes are lost. More than Russia will carve off peices to settle old-historic arguements.
The west caused this mess and Ukraine (in this instant) are paying the price. Instead of Iraq, Libya, Yugoslavia, Syria, Yemen, etc etc….proxy wars for a dying USA empire.
p.s. There is NO…rule based global system.that is PURELY U$A B.S for ‘do as we say, and not as we do’………..
Can the Russian Army seize Odessa? I don’t think so. That may have been an initial aim, but from what we have seen over the last two months, I don’t thank the Russian Army could do so now. Ukraine will have too much intelligence of any such an attempt and the heavy weapons they are getting now will tip the balance. The Ukrainians have also had two months to prepare their defences.
In the event that Putin makes such an attempt, would he use a nuke if it is all turning to custard? In my view, highly unlikely. A battlefield nuke probably could not turn the issue. Yes, he would destroy a complete Ukrainian brigade which typically covers a couple of square kilometres, but destroying one brigade will not be enough. There will be defence in depth so that means multiple nukes. He won’t do it.
Much more likely is strengthening the land bridge from Crimea to the Donbas. He can probably succeed in that. He then declares victory. To get Ukraine to accept this, he will bomb their main cities until they accept it.
Agreed. But one thing we haven’t seen much of yet is Ukrainian terrorism within Russia, you could expect this to happen with more Russian gains in coming months.
Remember the Chechen hostage seige in Moscow? Awful ending, the Russian special forces ended up killing more hostages than terrorists.
My crystal ball says Russia will have Odessa sooner rather than later, but have it it will.
Odessa will be Russian controlled, uless something weird happens between now and then.
Remeber Russia goes slowly, slowly. The main benefit for civilisians is WAY WAY way less of them die, than if the Americans and it’s pusst-NATO was involved.
So dont underestimate the Russian armed forces just beacuse this is not going the speed of American carnage around the world.
p.s. This is NOT in any way meant to side with the Russians or deflect from the fact war is awful and should be avoided.
Sorry Kevin – the ones who enjoy our media’s constant pro-Ukraine presentations will already have damned you as a Putin-apologist, and an evil Russophile.
They cannot tolerate anyone objecting to the biased coverage we are fed.
As the fog of Covid begins to clear, after two long hazy years, this is what awaits.
It should be required reading for every member of the NZ cabinet.
You should understand how little of a threat you are to Putin and why kiwis more general won’t even bother fighting. If we do fight, which we are, that will make New Zealand susceptible to a nuclear counter strike.
Exactly. He is a clear communicator. He told the whole world he doesnt want US/NATO missiles in Ukraine. The border country that controls the flow of his oil revenue from Europe was destabalised. He said he would invade if the Minsk peace treaty wasnt implemented. He does what he say’s hes going to do.
And he has consistantly said so since about 2000-2002.
But hey propaganda and not letting facts get in the way of a good B.S story.
…we are the bad guys…..it’s horrible to realise it, but it is still true.
I think we shouldn’t overlook that only one nation has the trifecta on using chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
I think we shouldn’t overlook that only one nation has the trifecta on using chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
I think that the Left in the West has gone gaga, cognitive dissonance abounds. Bombers got it.
Some questions for Leftists.
If capitalism is the enemy which side should Leftists support?
If imperialism is the enemy which side should Leftists support?
If neo Fascism is the enemy which side should Leftists support?
If globalism is the enemy which side should Leftists support?
Start thinking.
Our elegance should be to the Treaty of Waitangi.
“I fear Putin wants to use an extreme event of violence to terrify NATO into freezing. I think that event will either be a battlefield Nuke, chemical weapons attack or bio-weapon.”
You’ve been likely seeded that idea solely (as in ~100%) by Western MSM/political propaganda. If any weapon of mass destruction is used, it will be a deliberate “own goal” by the clear oligarch Zelensky in order to escalate this war to cover up various far-reaching crimes. Anyone who has been following Ukraine politics for the last decade or so (really ever sense the US ousted the pro-Russian govt in 2014 via the CIA funded “Green Revolution”), the Clintons, the Bidens (let alone the Hunter Biden “laptop from hell”), knows that Ukraine has been used as a sort of “piggy bank” for (presumably) money laundering (hopefully that is all it is, because those US funded Ukraine biolabs are a giant question mark still) that continues to this day.
Russia’s emblem, coat-of-arms is a two headed eagle, not a bear!!!!
That Byzantine eagle looks east and west, and claims power over both.
Two heads are better than one bear!