| New Zealand now essentially has two conservative major parties for the public to choose from. Unfortunately for one of them – the Labour Party – the public increasingly prefers the more authentic conservative option, National. This can be seen in the latest opinion poll showing National continuing to storm ahead of Labour.
According to last night’s Newshub-Reid Research poll, National has nearly a third more support than Labour – 41 per cent compared to just 32 per cent. As a result, Labour is currently projected to lose something like 24 of its MPs at the next election, and be turfed out of power in what could be a landslide reversal of the 2020 victory.
Five years of cautious managerialism
Labour’s five years in power have been incredibly conservative, despite the radical times. Very little in the way of far-reaching reform has been pushed by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and few radical policies have actually been delivered.
Ardern and her deputy prime minister, Grant Robertson, have been incredibly cautious and limited in their ambitions while in power. They look like conservatives – happy to rule over the status quo, careful not to scare the horses, and keeping any radicalism at bay, bar co-governance reforms successfully pushed within Labour by the Māori caucus.
Throughout the Covid crisis, the Government’s main aim has rightly been “to conserve” and steady the ship. This approach won them their historic 50 per cent of the vote in 2020. But voters haven’t been won over by any reform programmes, largely because the Government hasn’t changed much, and when they have tried to implement big projects they’ve failed – from Kiwibuild through to Auckland light rail. Traditional issues for the left like inequality, housing, and poverty have been deprioritised.
Now, with a more bona fide conservative party back on the market – also promising very little change – voters looking for caution, stability and managerialism are opting for the original version – National. Why continue to support a cheap copy of conservatism (Labour) when you can have the real thing (National)?
Labour’s conservative conference and policy announcement
The Labour Party’s annual conference in the weekend was on brand for conservatism. Yet again, the theme was all about “how to govern” the status quo rather than about significant social change. “Stability” was offered as the reason to vote for Labour, pitched against the alleged “radicalism” of National. Other terms of moderation that Labour leaders like Robertson embraced at the conference were “responsible” and “balanced”.
The conference was largely devoid of any profound reforms or fresh thinking, suggesting Labour has become tired. There was the expected cheerleading and attempts to enthuse the faithful, and lots of anti-National rhetoric, but nothing to suggest the party had bold new ideas.
Of course, there was the big announcement of increased childcare support and family assistance. This was meant to combat the cost of living crisis, but in the context of just how severe the problem is, the announcement was rather underwhelming. It will cost just $189m over four years – less than $50m per year – and only starting in April next year. One journalist described it as a “tweak” in policy, another as a “morsel” rather than anything that would make a real difference to the cost of living crisis.
Even National said they supported the new spending. After all, much of the funding goes to middle class families rather than directed towards the most disadvantaged.
Does Labour actually have any new progressive or leftwing policies for dealing with the problems New Zealand is facing? Not from what we saw in the weekend. Instead, it’s all knee-jerk managerialism from the leadership.
Were there any real debates, ideological clashes, or activists pushing the party towards bolder goals? It’s hard to know because the leadership took the rather authoritarian decision to close most of the conference to the media and public. Instead, the focus was on motivational speeches aimed at keeping the faith of delegates intact, and pretending that much had been achieved in Labour’s five years in power.
Labour’s conservative campaign message: fear
Labour has indicated that it will fight the next election, not on any new programme of transformation, but just on keeping their opponents out of office. This is the ultimate conservative goal – and in fact, it’s the one that National has historically held as its core ideology. In this sense, it’s as if Labour has willingly morphed into being the “alternative National Party”.
Ardern and Robertson will attempt to stoke fears about National and its leaders being dangerous, risky, and unknown. Better the devil that you know. They have started campaigning on the basis that Labour is more responsible and better in a crisis. Hence suddenly both Ardern and Robertson have done a U-turn – instead of insisting that the economic and inflation crisis isn’t so bad, they now say the opposite. The new line is that it’s going to get worse, and that Labour are the best managers for the rocky times ahead.
It’s also a rather traditionalist campaign pitch to focus on leadership and personality as the reason to vote Labour. The big theme of the weekend was a relentlessly negative focus on Christopher Luxon, and attempts to paint him as inexperienced or lacking leadership skills. This is the ultimate conservative plea to voters. As Newshub political editor Jenna Lynch described yesterday, the Finance Minister’s name-calling campaigning was “embarrassing”, and looked “panicked and petty”.
Will Labour’s conservatism eventually win more votes in 2023? It seems unlikely. In trying to emulate National, Labour will have a difficult time trying to outdo them.
What’s more, although we live in unstable and turbulent times – which Ardern and Robertson obviously believe requires a cautious approach – there are plenty of voters who want to see big changes and a radical response rather than “business as usual”.
Last night’s poll wasn’t the only one indicating that Labour is in trouble. The party would be wise to also heed the results of last week’s Horizon Research survey which indicated that 35 per cent of the public felt “disappointed” with Ardern – another 28 per cent felt “angry” with her. Many of these people also indicated that they voted for Labour at the last election. They had expected the party to deliver change. Instead, all they are getting is “more of the same”. It’s not a winning electoral formula.
Labour is still pitching itself as a party of stability and restraint – or “National-lite”. But for voters who want an authentically conservative party, then they can just go for the real deal – Luxon’s National. |
Labour are just national policy (global, cheap labour capitalism exploiters) with more taxes for the middle class and more freebies for the woke and crims. No wonder they are falling out of favour.
“That wasn’t REAL socialism.”
Come and get your free welfare while lowering wages in NZ!
Resident visa categories reopen: What you need to know
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-you-need-to-know/476618/resident-visa-categories-reopen-what-you-need-to-know
Already NZ is one of the highest mass immigration countries in the world while 30 years of low wages and unskilled labour mean that we also have one of the worst brain drains in the world.
Lower wages than Australia and Singapore, some of the highest interest rates in the world for those who are working here to buy a house (vs those who just come to NZ and bring in the foreign money and have zero mortgage or mortgage from overseas).
Like the fake meth levels, the so called high rents of NZ seem to be lower than most other nations. Off the back of echo chamber policy, we have hundreds of thousands living in expensive tax payer paid but grotty hotels. Hard to get a nationwide policy of more expensive rentals at lower levels of comfort, while increasing crime and violence, but they managed it!
Can’t see equality and poverty increasing in NZ, while the world’s rich can come to NZ and buy up assets and residency while receiving free welfare from NZ taxpayers. It’s kinda the opposite of Robin Hood, where the middle class of NZ seem to be subsidising the worlds rich but unskilled, dysfunctional and crims to settle here as part of some bizarre NZ policy that makes zero sense.
Lets face it, it can only be shameless attempts as getting a few more votes, which are ultimately backfiring as like the rentals, don’t think the majority of Kiwis are too happy about hundreds of thousands more foreign nationals able to access NZ health care, welfare, pensions and education off the back of these visa criterias so that our exploiter work culture and fake degree Ponzi can keep going post covid.
And INZ took the whole “1 Chinese is worth 2 Indians” comment as a ‘how to handbook’. Or more likely they drove the whole thing via their really really clever policy advice and Ministerial capture. In fact I think they probably refined it further.
I Brit is worth ………
1 American or Canadian is worth ……
Anyone from the African Continent and refugees are worth shit, and anyone from South America should be ranked only slightly higher.
Even returning Maries who’ve been absent for most of their lives should appear fairly low down in the rankings, and preferably they should be assigned an immigrant case manager to deal with their right to return home.
It comes when you treat people merely, and primarily as economic units
Wokesafe prosecuting the helicoptor heroes of White Island while ignoring migrant deaths another example of why people no longer trust government and their agencies to have any sense of justice or morality.
White Island eruption: WorkSafe charges against Kahu NZ helicopter company ‘silly’ – owner
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/12/white-island-eruption-worksafe-charges-against-kahu-nz-helicopter-company-silly-owner.html
Meanwhile after killing an illegal migrant worker who never paid any taxes in NZ, wokesafe did not prosecute, police did not prosecute and ACC after receiving zero levies paid out to a relative in China! Great to know you don’t need to work legally, pay taxes or be safe in NZ migrant led wokeplaces anymore! Taxpayers will pay out, union leaders will intervene and help keep the cash/killer economy going!
Illegally working overstayer dies on the job – ACC payment made to widow in China
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/illegally-working-overstayer-dies-on-the-job-acc-payment-made-to-widow-in-china/OWADEJMGCUYM36WLF6YNKUA2SE/
“Du praised Worksafe NZ’s approach to the investigation as “very professional”.
“They’re amazing,” she said.
“My husband worked himself to the bone for his employer, who did nothing for us, for our family, in the aftermath of his death.
“If he had we could at least try to understand his situation and difficulties, but he didn’t care about us.”
Worksafe NZ’s investigation report found Yu was working as a builder under the umbrella of a company called Star Echo Ltd (SEL), which was the latest in a string of subcontractors hired to develop the Hobsonville house site.
Although Zheng Jinghui was director of Star Echo, the discussions and work was taken on by “a very experienced and highly regarded builder in the Chinese building community”. Yu was among those hired to build the house.
On the day of Yu’s death, he had climbed to an incomplete first floor to work in an area where struts were temporarily pinned by only two nails. A co-worker nearby turned when hearing timber moving and watched Yu “trying to regain his balance”.
Yu “tried to grab at some joists but wasn’t able to hold on”. He fell feet first through to the ground floor 2.9 metres below, landing on a concrete slab. “As he fell back his head struck a piece of timber that was located on the ground.” Yu was declared dead in hospital two days later.
The investigation report found Star Echo had three previous interactions with Worksafe NZ with faulty and incomplete scaffolding cited in each instance. The company had received notices compelling improvement from Worksafe NZ but was not prosecuted.
In this case, there was a recommendation to prosecute the company for removing equipment and tools from the building site before either police or Worksafe NZ arrived in the aftermath of the accident.
The investigation found Yu was 45 when he died with no visa allowing him to legally work in New Zealand after arriving on a 30-day visitor visa in 2015.
Du told Worksafe NZ her husband paid $30,000 in China for legal work in New Zealand but realised on arriving here that he had been duped. After paying $1800 to another contact, Yu was connected with the builder who was overseeing work at the Hobsonville site.
Yu had been living with and working for the builder over three years, who said he had “no knowledge of his salary or other working conditions” which were agreed with Star Echo. The company said it had never received an invoice from Yu for his work.
Worksafe NZ identified a number of areas at the construction zone that posed risks where workers could fall from a dangerous height. It emphasised the need for builders to protect workers where falls were a risk.
“If a suitable ‘working at height’ control measure had been in place prior to the incident, the death of this worker could have been prevented.”
Worksafe NZ found there was “public interest” in prosecuting Star Echo for removing equipment and tools from the building site. It also said there was insufficient evidence to prosecute Star Echo over a “breach in relation to its primary duty of care” to Yu as a worker.
That decision to prosecute was downgraded to a warning letter in April. Worksafe NZ’s specialist investigations boss, Simon Humphries, said the decision was made in the shadow of the pandemic.
“This is because there was a greater public interest in Covid-19, amongst other reasons, and the offence by SEL was at the less serious end of the scale, as we only would have prosecuted for failure to preserve the site, not for the incident itself.”
China has an interesting concept in sentencing called “death penalty with reprieve”. If you commit a very serious crime, like getting a worker killed and then trying to cover it up, you are officially issued a death penalty, but if you behave in prison and refrain from committing further crimes, it is converted to a life sentence. You may even receive parole if you turn your life around. Would have been appropriate there.
Oranga Tamariki becoming a disaster for NZ kids. From letting down numerous kids and teens being found murdered and disabled on their watch to wasting time on critical race theories and taking abused kids away from permanent homes based on a race criteria. Then returning kids to abusive homes, not having any normal policy in place to check on kids wellbeing when parents are put in jail, where they are disabled or murdered. Too many mistakes and NZ government policy more interested in some fake pizza delivery worker shortage on minimum wages than our own kids being abused which has being making world headlines for years. Getting rid of child commissioner step in the wrong direction.
Indeed!
So having alienated the precariat (i.e. those that were inclined to vote, rather than just go for escapist misery), they proceeded to alienate the reasonably well-educated muddle class – ON TOP of those they’d already treated like shit during the height of the pandemic:
– gig workers (courier drivers, uber drivers, food deliverers, volunteers)
– nurses, immigrant doctors, workers wiping geriatric bums
– emergency service personnel
etc.
And btw, that RB pratt above seems to think ‘conservatism’ (with a little ‘c’, and neo-liberalism are mutually exclusive. They go hand in hand.
We’re running out of labels tho’ : post-xxx and neo-xxx have already been taken so I suspect we’ll need a committee and a PR bullshit and marketing team of “US”, after a series of online surveys and meetings to dream up somethink neo-new (in this space). In fact we could even devise a tertiary education course and rip another round of immigrunts off to earn a billion or two in the ‘export education ‘space’.
INZ could even create another queue.
It’s just astounding how the Labour leadership keep completely misreading the room. Sinking in the polls and guaranteed to hit the 20’s in no time they are sticking to they’re trademark tinkering.
I agree that the cost of living policy will barely make a difference if at all. A complete non event! A whole $4 per week extra, from April 2023 for the Best Start top up? Really? Stop it, that’ll buy a bottle of milk. Well almost!
But the whole co-governance agenda kept well away from the public, now that is radical. Not at all what we thought we were getting from Labour and never mentioned once in the lead up to both the 2017 & 2020 elections. I can only assume they were just too proud of it to share with the rest of us!
Utterly tone deaf! There are none so blind …
Labour should be listening to their grassroots, not communication and PR pundits like Clint Smith and Neale Jones.
They won’t though, they will continue on with Three waters and listening to woke Wellington bellends and get obliterated next year.
Reap what you sow Labour.