New Talbot Mills poll shows hung Parliament and why data says National will lose 2023 election
Latest Talbot Mills poll is out and it shows a hung Parliament…
LABOUR – 33
NATIONAL – 36
ACT – 10
GREENS – 9
Māori Party – 4.1
NZF – 3.4
…looking at these numbers on top of the rest of the polling this year and it is becoming very apparent that the only way National can win is if they give Shane Jones an Epson cup of tea in Northland.
I think it is highly unlikely now that National can win the 2023 election.
If we look at John Key 180 days out from each of his elections, National was beating Labour by double digits, under Luxon, National are beating Labour by 3 points.
National over poll all the time and the number they need to win by has to be in double digits to ensure it can win, National haven’t achieved anything like that since Key left Office and it means a win this year is highly unlikely.
That doesn’t mean the Left can sleep walk to victory, they need to push policy that can actually solve the pain voters are feeling, but it does mean we have everything to fight for.
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Both Winston and Shane still consider A.C.T. to be too extreme on economics. They may decide to sit in opposition again.
It is going to be close. Let us see the poll results after the budget .
National hasn’t even begun its election campaign. I think you’d better stock up on tissues because there will be an incoming National/ACT government.
Just enough time for Rev Piggy Luxon to cement himself as New Zealands most un- electable politician since Judith Collins.
Yes, National have begun their campaign Andrew and your inexperienced unpopular Luxon is going to get shown up!
I have waited many years for new comedic talent to arrive in NZ. Thank you and congratulations Andrew.
listening to Willis today – they don’t have one except to bag everyone else. Her vague waffle had no content at all.
But is it enough to overcome the Maori and Green Party’s dickheadedness?
National will not win any Maori electorates they will be lucky to get many votes.
Seemore is taking money from the rich to pay for his election campaign but at the same he is saying the rich should not be able to use their money to get there way (to those who came out and said tax us more) and that note he should give all those millions back its dirty money for favors.
Depends what way the West Auckland / Hamilton house husband s decide to vote. They are annoyed at the pice of coffee and beer. So they mean lean towards Nicola s better MGMT of the economy.
lol – listening to Nicola Willis, she has a lot of talking points but not many economic ones. tax cuts but not tax cuts, cost cutting but not cost cutting – she’s a walking contradiction of conservative cuckoldry.
Lets face it.
The country is screwed on just about every metric you choose to measure.
We will still be screwed no matter the outcome come election time.
I guess you have a point jack. Just a cork bobbing around in the South Pacific in a world that is getting more screwed up by the year. Some places are already basket cases, or to continue the train of thought, well and truly f*cked up. Any hope for us lot?
Same old, but different. Put another way, you want fries with that? But we cant give up that easy, eh. Must be some bright rays on the eastern horizon.
The trend, which is all these early polls suggest is Labour is on decent.
Greens have a rusted on woke base of at least 5%.
National have yet to break free of the Luxon effect.
ACT taking votes getting the Nats and Labour.
TMP taking votes from the left.
The trend suggests a change of government.
Not so fast XRAY..
NZ First cannibalizing National to the point the right bloc cannibalizing each other suggesting TPM kingmaker.
However if NZ figure out how inept Luxon is Chippie is a shoe in.
“Luxon rejected the suggestion his political announcement was in itself grandstanding, but he did acknowledge the main point of it was “framing to New Zealanders” that Te Pāti Māori was closer to Labour than National.
In Parliament “framing” is another word for spin.”
Winstone is already on the sidelines and that is where him and shameless Jones will remain
Winston has categorically ruled out working with Labour.
Yesterday Winston also said he didnt need or want A cup of Tea for Shane in Northland, said something to the effect that it lacked Mana. At the same time, once again Scheme More was busying trashing NZF and seemed to be saying ACT cant work with NZF.
Interesting days. It will be interesting to see how many former Labourites vote NZF this time.
Martyn – I’m happy and respect you to have an opinion. This goes both ways I hope.
But to phantom an idea out of a poll that seems very different from the Tax Payers Union one is interesting.
I’m not a fan of the Tax Payers Union much but I sure as heck would rely on their polling more as the past results have shown.
Keep on Martyn – hype the greens up so they can do something in the future like the nothing in the last 5.5 years.
Shit I thought Winston was mid 80’s, he is certainly holding his age well, even though he is half silly, however more intelligent and experienced than some of these other clowns IMHO.
Winston will be running a National/ACT/NZF Coalition, doubt whether Luxton and Seymour would stomach that ?
Seymour and Peters hate each other, hate!
Interesting. Ten or more years ago, when National were consistently on 40-42% and Act were around 5-6%, the left mocked them by calling them National no mates – having a laugh that there seemed an inability for the centre right to have sufficient party support to reach 50%. Now that has changed and Act is no longer the anorexic dependent it once was, the ability for the CR to attract >50% is improving. The increasing profile of The Maori Party may have an unintended consequence in driving folk on the left who are concerned about co-governance to National or Grandad Winston. Interesting times.