Liam Dann’s gasp inducing optimism vs IEA Chief
While Liam Dann projects calm and confidence about the global economy stabilising, the International Energy Agency is warning the Iran war has already triggered an energy shock worse than the combined oil crises of the 1970’s — raising serious questions about just how disconnected mainstream economic commentary has become.
Look.
The problem with economic cheerleading
I’ve always argued that we don’t have economic journalists, we have free market capitalism cheerleaders who have to always be optimistic to help channel the animal spirits of Milton Friedman’s invisible fist.
Any negative talk is seen as treason and that’s why Liam over at the NZ Herald is so gasp-inducingly optimistic.
He was wrong about the green shoots of recovery (they’ve turned out to be the drop snot of desperation)
He was wrong about unemployment going down.
He was wrong about GDP growth going up.
Liam Dann’s optimism ignores escalating global risk
He’s also wrong about this child-like optimism he seems to have regarding the illegal war in Iran ending soon because he compares it to Covid and we survived Covid.
‘Tis but a flesh wound!
He thinks all the tankers will drop off their oil supply to us and not get sold out from under us.
He thinks men can just stop this and talk it out (as opposed to waiting for a vaccine to get made).
And he also seems to think this will all be fixed soon.
IEA warns of a crisis worse than the 1970’s oil shocks
The IEA Chief on the other hand says, “Iran war energy crunch worse than the 1970’s oil crisis and Ukrainian war combined”…
Birol told Australia’s national press club on Friday that the situation was now “very serious”, more so than the two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, and more serious than the gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“At that time, in each [oil] crisis, the world has lost about five million barrels per day, both of them together 10 million barrels per day. And after that we all know that there were major economic problems around the world. And today we lost 11 million barrels – so more than two major oil shocks put together,” he said.
Plus, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the gas markets – especially in Europe – we lost about 75 billion consumer metres (BCM). And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140 BCM, almost twice. So the situation is, if we want to put in a context, this crisis as it stands now, two oil crises and one gas crash put all together.
Y-E-A-H.
To paraphrase 1990’s supergroup, Destiny’s Child, “I do not believe that you are ready for this jelly”.
Escalation, not resolution, is the more likely path
Trump and Israel killed the old Ayatollah who was near death and replaced him with someone who is even more hard line and younger!
How is that regime change?
To a worse regime for longer?
Trump and Israel killed the new Ayatollah’s dad, wife, brother and son. I’m no PhD Student in Psychology, but I think he might carry a grudge and want revenge and Iran has no intention of allowing Trump and Israel to get away with this.
Not so says Liam, the Strait will be back up and pumping and everyone will be doing great and there’s never been better time to buy a house.
The danger isn’t just that Liam Dann is wrong — it’s that this kind of optimism conditions the public to underestimate just how severe this crisis could become. When reality finally catches up, the shock will be far greater than if we had been told the truth from the beginning.
Gotta admit it is just a teeny weeny bit ironic that TDB team chose an image from a Monty Python classic which documented the Jews (including Brian and his mom!) as the indigenous people of Israel. What have the Romans ever done for us?!!?
Dann, isn’t it time you called it a day? When you are so besotted with yourself and a specific party, so you can’t see any alternatives except ‘wishful thinking’, you have a serious problem. Time to consider a change of job! You and our biased media have become a complete embarrassment to smart NZ’ers! If you truly believe all the tankers bound for NZ will actually reach us, you are naive. This horrid war, instigated by Israel and USA, will last as long as Iran want it to. Seems you don’t get it!
Friends don’t let friends take the Herald seriously.
Did anyone hear the post cabinet presser today?
WTF was going on when Luxon said towards the end (paraphrasing): “Everyone listen to Thomas, he’s got a really important question, pay attention”.
How did he know what question Thomas (I assume Coughlan) was going to ask? Stinks to high heaven.
Much stinkier than a PM referring to Press Gallery journos by their first name, that’s been SOP for ages.
Having reflected on your chosen name dearest Cinder and correlating it with your (let’s face it) obsessive hatred of one specific group of humans my admittedly pure guess is it a reference to Martin Luther? Just a guess dear Cinder but if it isn’t….it should be. By all means enlighten us though?
“obsessive hatred of one specific group”.
Enlighten me Paddy, which group?
Give me some examples and some evidence for your claims or fuck off.
Martin Luther…
What the fuck are you on about?
I have no problems with the edict of Wurms, how about you?
If you are incapable of writing clearly and articulating yourself in a comprehensible manner, then go back to school.
And I’m not your fucking “dear” Paddy.!
Dearest clever Cinder, as I think you may know (and easily could find on google) the phrase “cinder or stone” refers to a violent directive written by Martin Luther in his 1543 treatise, On the Jews and Their Lies (Von den Jüden und iren Lügen). Luther advised that Jewish synagogues or schools should be burned, and “what will not burn should be razed and covered with earth, that no man will ever see a stone or cinder of it again.” Something you would have been proud of based on the vast majority of your angry comments. Kisses.
Not the Edict of Worms
Von den Jüden und iren Lügen
As for evidence: practically every single comment you have ever posted dear