MEDIA WATCH: Newshub Nation – Auckland Central Poll upset – Chloe running 3rd

ByMartyn Bradbury

It’s the Battleground special and Newshub have A LOT going on. Simon was very good bashing Billy TK a couple of weeks ago, he’s on fire with very well researched questions, but everything comes to Covid and voters just don’t seem to care about policy no matter how hard journalists ask the questions.

The first battlefield is Northland. The only chance NZ First has of re-entering Parliament is Shane Jones beating a boiled ham like Matt King, but that’s a steep climb because Jones’ verbiage is far too cosmopolitan for Northland voters who are better known for their fear of eclipses and electricity than love of provincial Keynesianism.

This was bourn out by a Northland poll that had Jones coming 3rd, but what was most surprising was Willow-Jean Prime’s incredible Party vote which was 41% to National’s 38%. This is fascinating because if an electorate like Northland is leaning so hard towards Labour,  and that is repeated in other rural and provincial electorates, National is in real trouble.

The debate between Willow-Jean Prime, Matt King and Shane Jones is meaningless because  Covid is all that matters. King will win because this is banjo twanging Northland and even the plague won’t stop them being represented by the National Party, but the Party vote will go to Labour in a manner which will herald the tectonic shift which gives Labour a majority win.

Matt King and Shane Jones refusal to look at cannabis reform shows what tragic dinosaurs they are. I really hope Willow-Jean Prime wins just to give Matt King a smack.

NZ First are toast.

 

The second Battleground is Auckland Central and they have a Poll!

Helen White – 42%
Emma Mellow – 26%
Chloe Swarbrick – 24%

It’s over for the Greens in terms of hoping Auckland Central could be the safety net if they come under 5% with the awful Helen White riding Jacinda’s coattails.

Labour will gain another tedious middle class Ok Karen candidate, while the Greens are smashed.

This will be deeply disappointing for the Greens and watching another smarmy Labour candidate win will sadden us all.

The only hope is 20% still haven’t decided who they will be backing so if Gaia is listening, vote Chloe because losing her would be a tragedy for NZ Politics.

 

The third Battleground is Te Tai Hauauru where Māori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is battling to take the seat from Labour’s Adrian Rurawhe. If there are any surprises to come on Election night it will be in the Māori electorates. The Green Party vote that could go to Debbie will be the crucial part of that possible upset.

 

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17 Comments

  1. Thanks to Martyn for highlighting that the program was on. I don’t usually turn on th tv mornings, but htis was very worthwhile. Also The Hui, still going.

  2. Yes, King will win because this is banjo twanging Northland and even the plague won’t stop them being represented by the National Party. His party has treated Northland like crap for most of the past 60+ years. It’s not that the electorate are masochists , it’s just that by and large they are yokels. King truly suits that right down to the ground.

  3. Shane Jones has been a champion of the provincial growth fund, it’s been hugely welcomed in northland, he was quite restrained in this debate and came across as pragmatic. I think forecasts of doom for NZ first are premature.

    1. Shane Jones being a champion of the provincial growth fund, has been hugely welcomed in Northland? The size and warmth of the welcome is only shown in one small place – on the ballot paper.

      The ‘thanks but no thanks’ will be preferred by the rural Northland heartland. Boofheads in mid Northland will go on about National going to do something about the state highway and how bloody marvellous they are for that. That highway that party didn’t give a serious stuff about for 50 years.

  4. What the Greens stand for will be a lose but the current parlimemtary group will not be . To much Red not enough Green .
    This seems to be the way Greens fail around the World . They are a get voice in opposition but become ineffective enviromental watch dogs when in power .

  5. What the Greens stand for will be a lose but the current parlimemtary group will not be . To much Red not enough Green .
    This seems to be the way Greens fail around the World . They are a get voice in opposition but become ineffective enviromental watch dogs when in power .

  6. Auckland isn’t the electorate that voted Alliance and Labour blindly, it’s gentrified to hell. Chloe should have been touring campuses and techs all year and rallying the weed vote not stuck in Auckland central.

    As for Helen being an invisible nobody does that make Chloe a visible nobody? Cos Chloe’s been very visible and campaigning for a very long time in the electorate and has huge name recognition and she’s still behind the flown in candidate.

    Tbf to Helen she and Nikki represent the electorate well, moderate economically and socially liberal, Chloe does too, she comes from greater privlidge than Helen White, so tbf the choice was between three upper uppper middle class Karen’s and Chloe being the richest of all three.

    Chloe is another Jacinda not an AOC or Bernie, she’s only a Green mp because after her mayoralty bid when she was headhunted by lab/green she turned down Labour back when Little was leader because he couldn’t guarantee anymore than a top 50 list ranking which looked like a waste of time during the Little era, Ironically she would be a shoe in for Auckland central this time if she went Labour.

    Regardless. A win against the nats is a win against the Nats.

    GET CHLOE TO THE UNI AND TECH CAMPISES, TOURING HIGH SCHOOLS UP AND DOWN NZ IMMEDIATELY.

  7. Dafuq is hope? fuck no. With Labour consistently polling above 50% Helen White at 48 on the Party-list cruises through so why the fuck would any muppet give Helen White a candidate vote? dafuq??? fuck!

  9. “Matt King and Shane Jones refusal to look at cannabis reform shows what tragic dinosaurs they are. I really hope Willow-Jean Prime wins just to give Matt King a smack.”

    AAA+ Agree with you 100% Boomer! I hope she shows those pontificating prats the plank. NZ First’s and National’s stances on cannabis reform makes them both total non-starters.

  10. Agree Bomber, first time seeing and hearing Helen, seems patronizing and uncertain.Could the attraction be she would not look out of place as a extra or stand in, in the defunct television show Outrageous Fortune.

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