Buchanan + Manning – The Big Picture Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
https://youtu.be/vmspSgY55Ws
A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning deep dive into the big picture that hangs over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That big picture has many aspects to it, and as such any resolution to the atrocities being committed in Ukraine will likely be weighed against what is a challenge to the International law and rules-based order.
In a previous episode in this series, Paul Buchanan and I examined how the world was transitioning into a democracies versus authoritarian bipolarity. (ref. EveningReport.nz)
This episode continues in that theme, but digs down into how descendent powers, or nations, tend to create or become entrenched in wars, and how Russia, in 2022, fits this pattern. And, there are comparisons to global western powers too, which we will draw on.
But in this episode we go further. We examine how transitional international moments, conflict as a systems regulator, can move to counter Russia.
In 2022, the United Nations security council, due to the P5 nations having veto powers, appears no longer fit for purpose. A UN-led multilateral response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely.
The UN general assembly appears frustrated by Russia’s refusal to acknowledge the combined insistence of the UNGA that it cease its war against Ukraine.
Against this backdrop, NATO, at this juncture, cannot directly defend Ukrainians as Ukraine was not able to become a NATO member state before Russia invaded its territory.
Sometimes rules and law provide security and stability in the world. And sometimes, as we have seen in 2022, it permits conflict to burn on.
As we will discuss, the global rules-based order is fast changing in 2022. And as such, this underscores a need to re-set the international system.
But what can be done to stop people from being killed in this unprovoked war – a war that in many ways illustrates a wider war between democracies and authoritarians, as the world transitions toward a new bipolarity.
And, if a global order reset is needed, what would that reset look like?
These are huge challenges that require sensible analysis.
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Really good comments about demographics. Russia and China have issues with ageing population. The same will apply to India in a few decades. Watch Malaysia and Nigeria for huge demograhic growth.
Some things have very long term cycles. Theres an assumption that Russia wants to move west. History indicates its more likely to be the Germans moving east. France and Germany is another long term problem which we forget. The whole idea of a united Europe is historically troublesome. That is the real crisis of the end of Pax Americana.