Latest Poll is another warning to Chippy
Poll: Coalition maintains lead as Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ favourability crashes
National – 39%
Labour – 25.9%
Greens – 11%
ACT – 8.8%
NZF – 6.8%
Te Pati Māori – 5%
Without any actual policy to challenge the Right, Labour are drifting rudderless.
Darleen Tana is making the Greens look weak and the continued anti-Māori, anti-Treaty agenda is building the Māori Party.
The extremism of ACT and NZF keep pulling votes to National as right wing voters freak out at the impending race war the fringes keep feeding.
In terms of Chippy’s leadership and his drop in support, here are my thoughts.
There were two Jacinda’s.
The first was bold, kind, empathetic with an emotional IQ in communication unseen in politics and who was prepared to make huge calls in moments of national crisis.
The second Jacinda was hyper cautious and timid about challenging the actual neoliberal hegemony of the State beyond rearranging the bureaucratic deckchairs on the Titanic.
The anguish so many Wellington Unions and NGOs would publish as press releases towards her lack of actual reform were painful to read because they would all start with ‘first great step’ by a leader they celebrated and loved but were endlessly disappointed by.
There are only so many ‘great first steps’ you make in 6 years without realising you are actually just jogging on the spot.
Chippy’s recent policy focus hasn’t been about a great first step at all, it’s been about stepping up.
He acknowledges the election loss and has come back steely eyed and said, ‘I’m here for another decade’.
That is as strong a call as you can make after losing to the most right wing Government in NZ history.
Those who voted Labour in 2020 and voted National in 2023 did so because they hoped their house value would go up by 10%, they weren’t buying a culture war with Māori!
It is these voters Chippy needs to appeal to.
Those who voted Labour in 2020 and didn’t vote at all in 2023 did so because they were disappointed that when Jacinda had an unprecedented MMP majority, that she squandered it, those who didn’t vote however sure didn’t want this hard right Government to rule.
It is these voters Chippy needs to appeal to.
Those who voted Labour in 2020 and voted ACT or NZ First in 2023 are too far gone and are unreachable.
Support for NZ First and ACT are the collateral damage for Labour refusing to diffuse the dumb lives matter protest on Parliament Lawns.
They are lost to us forever.
Those who voted Labour in 2020 and voted Greens in 2023 did so because they were also appalled at how little Labour achieved domestically and were won over by the Greens Wealth Tax.
With the Darleen Tana saga dragging on, Chippy needs to appeal to those Green voters with a better tax policy and electrification would appeal while for political reasons, stealing the Greens down to 7% would be a smart move tactically.
Those who voted Labour in 2020 and voted Māori Party in 2023 are clearly telling Labour and the Māori Party to work together!
Māori voters gave their electorate vote to the Māori Party and their Party vote to the Labour Party, they are some of the most successful tactical voters in NZ politics.
The Māori voters want the Māori Party and Labour to work together, unfortunately the Māori Party is more focused on political theatre and hats than they are to actually forming a Government.
Chippy has to negotiate that.
I think people are battered and surprised by the right wing blitzkrieg and are looking for a decent bloke to protect them from this.
Chippy is that decent bloke.
There are ways to win a Labour led victory in 2026, if Chippy blows it, he won’t get that decade long chance to again.
It’s time for Chippy to step up because we are all over Labour’s ‘first good steps’.
He’s got 6 months to show something or the moves against his leadership will start formulating over Summer 2025.
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Can anyone see any reason for the Labour Party to still exist?
They definitely need to get their s**t together for the sake of NZ, they were ineffectual in Government and in Opposition.
I believe Hipkins still thinks he will wake up from this nightmare and discover he did not lose the election and the people acknowledged him as a great leader and had voted him back in power. He could then take GST off fruit and veg and all would be good problem solved
because those other idiots do
If Chris Hipkins is the solution then Labour is doomed. He’ll be forgotten as the guy with the sausage rolls.
100% Correct Chipkin’s is seen as the Schoolboy Sausage Roll Salesman and is not credible to lead the Labour Party, he has to go otherwise Labour will be in Opposition for at least the next two terms, God Help NZ.
And as a country we always want a functioning opposition no matter who is in power.
Labour need to start generating policy rather than slagging the dipshits in power. How National and ACT get any votes at all is beyond reason. Especially ACT who are actively destroying the fabric of NZ society with National and Winston first in close support. National’s bubble will burst when their policies begin to flounder – only problem with this is the amount of collateral damage done to many Kiwi’s before we get to their inevitable crash and burn. Luxon is the wimpiest PM in NZ history and Rimmer is the crappiest DPM (with Winston a close 3rd). Looking forward to what is going to happen when Rimmer takes the DPM reigns from Winnie the Shit.
My assessment is that Hipkins is going through the motions to preserve his gold plated income and superannuation scheme and that any concerns he shows for those suffering now is superficial at best. Unless Labour can get a leader in the mould of Norm Kirk and a decent team behind him/her nothing much will change.
I don’t think anyone is going to make him Sir Chippie anytime soon.
Hipkins declaration of Maori sovereignty has done wonders for his popularity I see.
Keepcalmcarryon Any suggestions of co-governance are put to flight if JohnT’s smirking buffoons are seen as it’s face. Their lack of gravitas, dignity, and knowledge are beyond dismaying, IMO.
The people who voted Labour even the right wing whites in 2020 did so
because they feared for their lives as Covid hit.
The danger of Covid past by the middle of 2022 .
Adern stepped down in February 2023 leaving a massive void no one could possibly fill.
Hipkins was left carrying the can caught in the cross hairs with no where to go
facing the Nats insanely Jealous of Ardern’s success and who now wanted revenge.
Act and NZ First also hammered in 2020 were also on the brink of extinction.
All three right wing white parties were desperate in 2023.
All reverted to type and promoted the one policy which would lure back the majority whites,
activating the generational imbedded white hate toward Maori
leading to the call for a Maori bashing Government.
The right wing Whites and the swinging whites took the bait as they always do
like ravenous hyhenas and starving piranha high on methamphetamine.
Hipkins bravely and professionally is now simply the fall guy taking the flak for the massive Labour defeat .
The National coalition will win again in 2026 with a significantly reduced majority.
From 2027 the tide will turn as people transfer their problems to the incumbent Government .
The left wing will again become an attractive destination especially for swinging voters.
Politics is a patience game.
Roll on 2029
Hipkins is more disliked than Luxon.
I worry Labour might over complicate the required tax changes.
There are only two questions to answer-
How much to tax (government percentage of GDP)?? – this is the left v right question and;
What to tax?? this should not be impacted by political ideology.
What Parker has proposed previously is a tax switch – Tax wealth (better termed asset tax) and correspondingly reduce income tax. So basically take the “How much to tax” off the table and only worry about what to tax. This alone would go a long way to fixing the current problems. National/ACT couldn’t frame this as a tax increase if Labour makes sure its tax neutral. If they were bold they would actually try to reduce the tax take slightly to put National and ACT on the backfoot.
My fear is they will impose a threshold on any wealth tax. Which will open loopholes and create another distortion in the economy.
There will be an optimum time to release any policy around this- probably much closer to the election.
They would need to run a solid 3 year education campaign around how taxing assets doesn’t cause capital flight.
A surgeon who owns four rental properties, even if he shoots through, the rental properties assets remain in the country to be taxed. He can probably get a job in another western country but most of them have a capital tax so why would he up sticks.
A capitalist that owned a chain of retail stores or supermarkets could leave but the assets remain here subject to some kind of asset tax.
A transaction tax and bank profit export tax ought to be first out of the blocks.
Sell it as tax neutral by removing 5 percent of the gst, small business owners would love the stimulis. And it would reduce the incentive for the grey economy.
Make the first $25k income tax free. Remove taxes from benefits. What a ridiculous circus levying and recollecting taxes on benefits.
A surgeon would see an increase in tax on their assets- but a reduction in their income tax. Given the value of the surgeon’s services to society the decrease in tax would encourage them to provide more of their services as they get to keep more of their effort.
If we go back to the principal – “tax the things you don’t want and don’t tax the things you do want”. We want the surgeon to work as a surgeon and not a property investor.
They definitely need to get their s**t together for the sake of NZ, they were ineffectual in Government and in Opposition.
Let’s not forget the battle for Auckland. Labour lost the support of “poor” immigrant groups on law and order. They voted National because of the tax cuts or Act because they have been convinced Māori are somehow given special privileges because of ancestry. Labour has to sell a vision so that immigrants feel included and valued.
Nothing new to see here.
The more Nu Zilanders are whipped, the more they like it.
Particularly the white ones, belief that suffering is good for one is an imported puritan trait.
Hard to read what’s going. The current government appears to be maintaining high levels of popularity despite the crumbling economy. Is it all the culture war froth that Seymour is fomenting like a Medieval alchemist? There’s now a haze across the political landscape making it difficult for clear thinking and analysis. But this is more than a political move – this is cultural as well.
It feels like the electorate is getting comfortable with this new narrative where – you know – maybe it has ‘gone too far’ and ‘the Maori have been getting too much’.
The government have set everything up perfectly with a 6 month treaty bill process to really get their point across. It’s a basic push back against progressivism generally with Maori as the primary target.