Iran nuclear test vs Russia chemical weapons vs Israel war crime vs China vs Trump Pax Americana

Every day that passes where Iran doesn’t attack Israel for the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran is a day closer to them possibly successfully testing a nuclear weapon.

The US Intelligence argues it could take the Iranians 2 weeks to successfully make 5 bombs (one to test, 4 to hide).

Israel has always stated they would respond to a successful Iranian nuclear test with a deep strike against the facilities required to build them.

These facilities are near densely populated areas, which if attacked are likely to see a lot of civilian casualties.

An attack like that by Israel would be a declaration of war.

My suspicion is the rest of the world would want nothing to do with an Israeli military strike and even America would step back leaving Israel to make the attempt on their own.

The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will be half as successful as it needs to be and will allow Iran to respond in self defence which will see Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian forces and Iraq forces to rise up.

If the Houthi have a hyper-sonic missile, let’s see how an aircraft carrier stands up to one of those.

If this triggers, expect Putin to commit some terrible atrocity 24 hours later.

I would not be surprised if Putin uses chemical or biological weapons against Ukrainian forces on Russian territory.

He can’t use a tactical nuclear strike on Russian soil, that’s too masochistic even for Putin, and he is reserving that power strategically against NATO, but using weapons of terror like biological or chemical on advancing Ukrainian forces on Russian sovereign land is legally defensible and the exact sort of sociopathic violence Putin needs to inspire to force Zelensky to back down.

I argued that Zelensky would take the next gen weaponry we had sent him to invade Russia because he knows that if Trump wins in November, Trump will cut support, so he has to leverage up.

Trump’s possible victory is forcing everyone to gamble.

Meanwhile the horror of what is being done to the Palestinians is an open wound war crime.

Over 40 000 dead + 10 000 bodies trapped under the rubble + 180 000 secondary deaths.

We are talking almost 200 000 dead plus over 90 000 wounded and thousands detained in torture camps where the IDF are ritualistically raping prisoners in front of other prisoners as a deeply damaged means of installing terror in the oppressed population.

What Israel is doing is an obscenity to everything that should matter to Western values.

China is flexing against the Phillipines and if Iran and Russia play up, it would be of advantage to China to assert its dominance of these physical spaces before a possible Trump election.

Things are far less stable globally than we are taking for granted, how NZ navigates these geopolitical vortexes will take more than strapping ourselves onto America’s next foreign adventure.