If you think life under Labour is crap, wait until the National/ACT Government

We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ. The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.

The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.

The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.

ACT’s rise is fuelling a toxic polarisation of politics and ultimately poses an existential threat to the National Party.

Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.

Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.

National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.

ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.

ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.

In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.

Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.

ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.

In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.

Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.

Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.

Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.

Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.

Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.

A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.

We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.

This all adds up to an existential threat to National.

Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.

Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.

Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.

If voters on the Right sense Luxon can’t do it, there will be a late protest surge to ACT that will swell them beyond 15%, cannibalising enough National vote to rob them of a possible majority.

If National fail, Luxon will be removed and the internal fight over what National is will begin again, while ACT will start operating as the de facto opposition, (which they pretty much  do already).

While National staggers to define itself in any post election loss, ACT will ruthlessly exploit their weakness and look to actually over take the National vote in 2026, which will strip National out of the main cities and leave them a South Island Party pretending to be from Masterton.

By 2029 National would be relegated to the highlands of the South Island where the cream rises and become a weaponised Grey Power without the teeth.

The Chinese Business Interests that backed National will be disappointed with their return on investment while the Billionaire class will pile into ACT’s class war agenda with the gleeful abandon of billionaires in submarines.

Even if National and ACT win a majority and form a Government, Seymour is so much smarter than Luxon, he will get all of ACTs agenda through, and then some!

In power ACT would take even more energy off National.

National’s only counter strike that will preserve the status quo and at least buy some time to consider their next move is to give Shane Jones an Epsom cup of tea in Northland.

Dilute ACT by including a shot of Winston.

ACT are calling National out and are clear they intend to negotiate hard with Luxon because they are believers.

Fanatics to be more precise.

Luxon flips and flops on a good day. The pressure of a campaign is a unique moment and while there are a thousand reasons to hate Labour, they are still competitive and that’s astounding.

Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme, the middle have decided to vote Labour regardless of how many times Michael Wood didn’t do what he should have done!

Sure, Michael got 13 strikes and Kiri Allan yells at unaccountable unelected bureaucrats, but let’s not pretend ACT and National won’t inadvertently start a race war with a referendum that will enforce a new Treaty on Māori eh?

Yes, Michael silly and frustrating, but a hard Right Government forcing a new Treaty on Māori while cutting the Ministry’s of Youth, Ethnic Affairs, Māori, Women, Pacifica AND the Human Rights Commission???

So.

If National and ACT get in, ACT dominate Luxon and take votes off National and over take them in 2026.

If National and ACT don’t get in, ACT attack National openly and over take them in 2026.

Shane Jones might need a cuppa soon.