I don’t think many NZers appreciate this plague is a 2 year event
As we all count down to the end of this bloody lockdown, I don’t think many NZers appreciate that this plague is a 2 year event.
It’s not just the 2 years we will need to wait for a vaccine, but as TDB has pointed out for sometime, there are also serious questions over how long the immunity lasts for…
Coronavirus: Being infected with COVID-19 might not give you immunity – WHO
The World Health Organization is not sure whether the presence of antibodies in blood gives full protection against reinfection with the new coronavirus, Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, told a briefing on Friday.
Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called “herd immunity” to the broader population.
“A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of [the] population have seroconverted [to produce antibodies],” he said.
“The expectation that … the majority in society may have developed antibodies, the general evidence is pointing against that, so it may not solve the problem of governments.”
…the argument pushed by Plan B Death Cult Capitalists like Hosking, Soper, Hooton and the National Party is to allow the plague to kill the weak because it will create herd immunity and the economy will survive.
These fanatics wanted to kill tens of thousands with no actual proof that herd immunity was even possible, an lo and behold, WHO now doubt it does.
The reality is that the initial wave of infection is just the start…
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, warned that the United States may experience multiple surges of Covid-19 over the next year and half, noting that while it’s impossible to know for certain, the coronavirus seems to be following a “1918 model” — a reference to the 1918 flu pandemic that may have killed up to 100 million people worldwide.
“This first wave … is just the beginning of what could easily be 16 to 18 months of substantial activity of this virus around the world, coming and going, wave after wave,” Osterholm, who served as a State Department science envoy for health security from 2018 through 2019, said during a recent online conference. “It surely is a virus that likely will have to infect at least 60 to 70 percent of the population before you’re going to see a major reduction in its transmission,” he explained.
Similarly, a study by researchers at Harvard University, published this week in the journal Science, warned of “recurrent wintertime outbreaks” of Covid-19, meaning the virus may become a seasonal, global fixture. If those infected develop short-term immunity (on the order of 40 weeks), we may see annual outbreaks of Covid-19 while longer-term immunity (two years) would likely mean biennial outbreaks.
…Death Cult Capitalists in NZ seem to be under the impression that once lockdown is lifted, everyone will flood shops for retail therapy – but I think that totally ignores how freaked out people have become & until they can get a vaccine, consumers will stay home…
Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. But They Aren’t
After more than two months of being confined to their homes, most of Wuhan’s 11 million residents are now free to venture out, with infections dwindling from thousands of new cases a day in mid-February to just a handful a week. But for restaurant owner Xiong Fei, the end of the lockdown in the Chinese city where the coronavirus pandemic began hasn’t brought relief, just a new set of challenges.
While factories around Wuhan are working around the clock to get back up to speed, the recovery of consumer-focused businesses such as Xiong’s won’t be so straightforward.
Although people are cautiously taking to the streets again, they remain subject to curbs on their movements aimed at keeping the virus at bay. Residents are encouraged to stay home and still must have their temperatures checked before entering any building. In other words, it’s far from business as usual, stoking fears among small businesspeople like Xiong that the lockdown has changed customers’ behavior, maybe for good.
…which brings me back to a point that TDB has been pushing for some time.
This is a unique event that won’t end until a vaccine is globally available and it will amputate the economy to a level not seen since the Great Depression AND AS SUCH the Government has to think big to take over the economy and BECAUSE OF THAT the Left urgently need to host a virtual conference looking for meaningful economic reforms.
The Identity Politics Left are great at organising petitions on Action Station to free the nipple for PoC vegan cycling mommy bloggers and Trans Allies, but not so great at reconstructing the neoliberal hegemonic structures of the economy.
Look, I’ll even draw up an agenda so you can’t fuck it up.
Agenda: NZ economy until a vaccine is ready
Mass State Housing Rebuild – The only way to force slumlord landlords to upgrade their slums is remove the desperation of the market. 30 000 new state houses would do that and create mass jobs while upgrading the entire housing stock.
Mass mixed forest replanting – we need this for climate change and mixed tree planting would create huge new jobs.
Ministry of Works – It’s time to stop managing and actually doing, recreate the Ministry of Works and put them to work building state houses and planting trees.
Nationalise Fletchers – This will be the bones of the new Ministry of Works.
Universal Union Membership – There has NEVER been a stronger case for Universal Union Membership, it has been the unions protecting essential workers, the unions arguing for their safety, the unions who have stepped in when bosses have ignored their obligations. Until a vaccine is available ALL workers should be members of Unions to ensure their rights are protected.
UBI – For the self employed a UBI will be the difference between surviving and not. We should have one until a vaccine is available. Labour looked at this during their ‘Future of Work’ conference before they got elected.
Extension of Benefits – Stop the toxic culture in WINZ, immediate reform so that those needing welfare can gain it immediately and lift the benefits minus the draconian punitive stuff until a vaccine is found.
Community Resilience & Whanau Ora – Vast increase of budget to community groups to directly build sustainability into their communities.
Taxation –
-
- Financial transaction tax
- Wealth tax
- Multinational tax
- Inheritance tax
- Capital Gains Tax
I suspect that Paul Henry’s ‘Rebuilding Paradise’ is going to be our ‘Make America Great Again’ and it will rate insanely well.
Death Cult Capitalism is moving far faster at re-establishing their narrative post-pandemic than the Left are.
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Definitely time for a left conference; virtual or otherwise, with all potential allies invited-Unite all who can be united to roll back neo liberalism for good!
The CTU needs to be shamed if necessary, into doing more than monitoring the dispersal of taxpayer funds for employer bailouts. It will be an education for some people though, the number of bosses already exposed as rotting the wage subsidies.
No matter who leads- it can be a united front-there has to be an alternative to the capitalist bludgers in the Govt. ears at the moment.
Maybe the Greens would finally front up and do their job!!
Meaning, assign a workforce to – EG – clean up all those touristy areas while we are more or less tourism free. Build dunnies, for starters – stop the tourists crapping everywhere. Longdrops or whatever – Just get them out there, along all the walkways, even by the roads. And rubbish bins – Am sick of the accumulated rubbish from tourists along our beautiful roads – there’s loads of it. …and clean up all our rubbish dumps – including Fox River – Old ones and current ones.
People are going to need jobs. There is PLENTY of work that needs to be done.
The funnies used to be there Kheala. And where they still stand they are being locked at night. This is precisely to herd the tourists into motels and camping grounds so that people in the tourist industry can be employed.
The shit everywhere is just collateral damage , the maximisation of revenue is paramount.
The funnies used to be there Kheala. And where they still stand they are being locked at night. This is precisely to herd the tourists into motels and camping grounds so that people in the tourist industry can be employed.
The shit everywhere is just collateral damage , the maximisation of revenue is paramount.
D J S
DJS – Yes.
And everyone passes the buck on this – Tourism NZ shrug it off, The Greens/ Enviro Dept say it’s Tourism’s tab, then govt puts it back on Local Councils, who in turn delay and defer and make all kinds of excuses – No one actually provides a lasting solution. And those of us who live near these otherwise pristine beautiful places have to live with the summertime stench and be very careful where we step.
If Alan Johnson’s views are anything to go on, who works at the ministry of environment and on TDB advocating to extend the city zoning and not worry about migration because it doesn’t effect housing using migration figures that omit the 300,000+ per year temporary visas being given out……
Apparently does not realise that
there is roughly 30 years supply of land before the rural urban limit (actually called the Rural Urban Boundary (RUB)) around Auckland is breached. 30 years.
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2017/11/07/removing-rural-urban-boundary/
And there are 300,000+ temp migrants per year coming each year missing from his figures ….. and temp migrants still need housing, jobs, transport, water, sewerage (and now wage subsidies!) etc
But why prioritise NZ citizens when cheap labour and rampant consumerism from overseas is so profitable for neoliberalism and you can bankrupt an entire country paying for other countries nationals and businesses to be propped up here!!
I agree, SaveNZ, it’s shockingly wrong.
Tourism as it was is not good for the country nor environment. To use a buzzword it is not sustainable.
I we need overseas money then generate it in a way that does not diminish our physical and environmental resources.
But not more milk as that is plain environmental suicide.
Reducing our buying overseas for a start and regulating who can spend our money and on what.
We don; need landfill full of crap.
Nope Kheala COL idea is to relax the immigration visas to keep the housing crisis and job competition strong…
Apparently supermarket workers are ‘essential’ because NZ who are on the dole are too lazy and drugged out to deserve a job.
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/relaxed-visas-essential-workers
(They might also expect more than a 0% pay rise on the backs of extensive profiteering).
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00537/oh-thats-where-they-get-their-profits-from.htm
It’s hard to work out how a supermarket worker can be a migrant bought in for ‘essential skills’ when prior to Covid we had jobseeker increasing 11% and has now risen dramatically upward.
I just hope come election time people remember the leadership hat went into the mosque attack, the volcanic eruption and now the Covid-19 pandemic. All in the space of 3 years. You can’t lead when it’s solely about the economy.
Bert- Yep, the PM is exemplary in a crisis – that’s plain to everybody – globally; her concern about people is genuine too; hard for sociopaths to understand, but that’s their problem.
Yes , lets give this govt and in particular, Adern a round of applause.
She has earned it.
How many other govts in this country of whatever configuration could we say have had such a baptism of fire?
Virtually none among their number.
It has been an extraordinary time and an extraordinary PM and govt that has dealt with all of this.
We have indeed been blessed to have Jacinda Adern and her govt. Despite some of their shortfalls. Lets always remember that.
I wonder why you think there will actually be a vaccine? They have been trying to develop a vaccine against Aids for decades, with no success. Have they been able to develop a vaccine for the common cold? I don’t think so. Good luck with your vaccine, but don’t hold your breath.
SARS epidemic is associated with another coronavirus not too dissimilar in 2002 – 2004. Many laboratories attempting to create a vaccine for SARS. A satisfactory one that can be used widely has not been tried yet.
Sars was brought under control with public health measures, The untried vaccine was shelved and never licensed
.
China shared publicly the full RNA sequence of the virus – now known as SARS-CoV-2 ( novel coronavirus)
But expecting a vaccine for Covid19 in 18 months is living in cornucopia. The chances are there may not be one that will be satisfactory across various mutations of this widespread virus with variations in the genome already.
It must be demonstrated that potential vaccines are safe and can trigger the right parts of the body’s immunity, without causing damage.
We would be negligent relying on a vaccine and not controlling it with public health measure.
Watch China as they have been very successful to date.
Jim
More to the point; the lack of a vaccine for the similar SARS-COV-1 that has been in the works since 2002 now! The common cold is also a kind of coronavirus. There has never been a viable COV vaccine – those that have been trialled rot the lungs and make you more susceptible to the disease.
SARS-COV-2 is here now; vaccine development, while a priority, can not be relied upon in planning for the future. But at least physical distancing also works against the flu:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30090-6/fulltext
On the BBC today the WHO was quoted as saying that only a minority of recovered cases where developing any antibodies at at all. This is casting grave doubts on the development of an effective vaccine ever.
D J S
David the lack of long term antibodies has been a stumbling block with coronavirus vaccine research with earlier work around SARS and of course the common cold we are all familiar with.
There are evidently at least 62 agencies working on possible vaccines for Covid19 but most will be after a patent and income stream.
Yes, we have to be prepared for a new way of living, a new way of life. It won’t be back to the norm – and the norm wasn’t good enough. The young people out there currently doing vital jobs to keep things functioning – they do know all this – Hosking, Soper and co are just useless selfish noise. They are yesterday’s men.
Kheala – you’re right about tourists -this beautiful country has been prostituted under the previous Minister of Tourism, and that has to stop. It has to be seriously curtailed – to hang with selling our children’s future for tourists’ dollars which benefit the bank balances of the few. It is also a precarious form of income, when major changes to international travel could jeopardise it in unknown future events.
All of Martyn’s proposals need to be visited and revisited, and if the Greens are unable or unwilling to function as an environmental party, then we need to utilise the power of the workers and the tangata whenua to protect the people and the land.
Somewhere Eugene O’Neill wrote – “There is no present or future, just the past happening over and over again now.” Meanwhile, Soper’s missus puts digit to keyboard complaining about not being able access her hairdresser. You gotta laugh.
…’ Meanwhile, Soper’s missus puts digit to keyboard complaining about not being able access her hairdresser. You gotta laugh ‘…
———————–
Yes , the obsession of the far right wing about hair.
Perhaps it is the anxiety of ‘not having a hair out of place’, the desperate eagerness to show group conformity,…to exhibit a manicured, fastidious appearance that bespeaks an ‘organised, efficient corporate approach to life’…
How droll.
Welcome to the Sasquatch.
Haven’t had a haircut in 7 years, hair down my back, and because I cant be bothered and partially because of the lock down haven’t shaved in 5 weeks. I think I’ll let the beard stay. Its easy , keeps me a tad warmer in winter, – and lets me feel I don’t look like some sort of post 1945 idiot wank Nazi escapee from South America.
It also means I don’t spend a penny nor a thought about,- something to which my self confessed neo liberal brother in law who has now lost his business due to lock down has always made smart Alec comments about.
Especially All Blacks he doesn’t like with the comments about ” the one with the silly haircut ”.
Who’s laughin’ now?
ROAR !!!
LOL!.
LOL!
tourists – [OR] this beautiful country
For you, Snow White: Papatūānuku, the Earth Mother is breathing
Kheala – Thank you – I saw this online late last night- maybe in The Guardian – it is so beautifully done – the narrator is perfect.
I am utterly stunned to see Trevor noting that Kelvin Davis said there were no plans to cut back on Tourism – that makes Labour the same sort of whores as the Nats.
Davis is likely appeasing businesses currently losing income from lack of tourists, but his short sightedness, and negligent attitude towards the environment is not just depressing, it’s breathtakingly cavalier.
The coronavirus would be a good opportunity to call a moratorium on all tourism and knuckle out less irresponsible tourism policy. Up and down the country, ordinary people are concerned about the impact of tourism on our environment and govt need to explain why they’re turning a deaf ear to us on this one. Not good enough.
At the back of my mind is criticism of the Environment Ministry losing focus about its raison d’etre, so Davis may be doing what neolib public servants advise him to, and that’s not good enough either. It’s our country. And our children’s children’s.
It is surprising what you find when you follow up to check your memory. On May 17th 2019 Davis announced $8 million to help promote freedom camping . I know camp owners on the West Coast who were charging $ 20 a night who were half empty due to freedom camp sites close by but they had to put padlocks on showers to stop freedom campers using them.
In Feb when the virus effect was still to be felt Davis announced $11 million to off set down turn in tourism many of these companies are overseas owned. The same government refuse to help the 37000 SME businesses pay rent so they do not close . Most of these businesses are owned by young hard working Kiwis trying to get ahead.
“The same government refuse to help the 37000 SME businesses pay rent so they do not close . Most of these businesses are owned by young hard working Kiwis trying to get ahead.”
So in essence you’re giving handouts to business landlords?
Should they not come to the party for their tenants?
If you care to check Kelvin Davis said there was no plans to cut back tourism numbers so you cannot push the blame but I do agree we need to control the numbers coming in . We should insist they have medical insurance and all self contained vehicles have a proper toilet that is used .Freedom camping sits should be retained for NZ travellers .
I find myself agreeing with you again Trevor, time for my meds I think!
Who is expected to pay for the infrastructure and environmental damage from the 4 million tourists though?
At present it is falling on everyone else to pay for!
Tourism is a sunset industry – and it’s a joke that NZ relies on it so much and keeps propping it up…
The idea that the tourists are unable to pay $35 is laughable when the rest of the country is subsidising the industry!
Tourism has become a ponzi of low wage business with lower and lower quality in NZ and full of fraud to get residency – it’s across the board from high end hotels employing ‘interns’ paying to be in NZ to holiday parks.
Reporoa holiday park owner hits back over record $680k exploitation fine
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12294528
‘The students paid up to $6000 each to Wellington company Internship New Zealand to come here to gain international experience.
They were then employed as housekeepers by cleaning company AHS, which services rooms at the Grand Mercure in Wellington.’
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/10/treated-like-slaves-overseas-students-claim-they-re-underpaid-overworked-threatened.html
How can local workers compete with workers paying to come to NZ to work!
Now we are expected to bail out the hotels and businesses with wage subsidies. It’s crazy!
As I’ve said before don’t assume a vaccine is going to be a magic bullet. In veterinary medicine corona virus vaccines for other bugs are so/so in efficacy. Not all vaccines are created equal.
Much is still being learned, but if humans don’t develop good immunity to Covid 19 as some suggest it could be a sign the bug itself doesn’t generate decent immune response hence won’t make a great vaccine necessarily.
I guess even 50% protection would be useful.
ABC.net.au had a good article yesterday on dramas with Covid 19 vax production.
On the plus side there is going to be a heap of money chucked at this so hopefully they can crack it.
ABC.net.au had a good article yesterday
ABC 17th April Coronavirus Vaccine
That’s it thanks Kheala.
I am thinking that there will be a surplus of empty motels all over the country during the next few years, so maybe the government can purchase these complexes and convert them into good family sized apartments. I would just love to see homeless people or low income earners being given the opportunity to live in good quality dwellings and most of these complexes even have playgrounds, spas, and in-ground swimming pools – sure beats living in cars and garages. Won’t hold my breath waiting for this to happen though. Sigh!!!!
1. There may well be more than one strain of Covid-19.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
‘Jones says we can expect more strains to emerge. Epidemiologists generally agree that, once a person is infected with the coronavirus, they are unlikely to be infected again – unless the virus mutates to allow it to overcome the immune system’s defences.
This “selection pressure” could lead to the outbreak of a new strain, says Jones. This is the case with seasonal flu – new variants crop up every year that can infect people whether or not they’ve had flu in the past.
We could see the same pattern emerge for the new coronavirus in the coming years, says Jones. “I don’t see it going away any time soon.”
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6Jzi1eE9c
2. People may carry Covid-19 and spread it but may themselves be asymptomatic.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/asymptomatic-carriers-coronavirus
‘While it’s still unclear exactly how much of the current coronavirus outbreak has been fueled by asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, or pre-symptomatic people, the risk is there, Nate Favini, MD, medical lead of Forward, tells Health. That’s because people who are asymptomatic can still spread the virus and have high levels of the virus in their respiratory secretions, he says—something that is apparent from the rapid spread of the coronavirus. “Given the rapidity of the spread of COVID-19, it seems plausible that people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic could be playing a role in spreading the virus,” he says.’
and
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/navy-reports-alarming-stealth-transmission-rate-60-infected-carrier-crew-symptom-free
‘In an extremely worrisome development signaling the coronavirus peak in the United States could last longer than expected, the US Navy has found that most COVID-19 cases aboard the virus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt are among sailors who are asymptomatic.
“Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say,” Reuters reports.
This suggests the virus could be spreading more frequently by stealth mode in the broader population, with many more people than is known walking around walking around with the disease unawares.’
I still think that there are major problems with this concept that “farming needs to transition to forestry”.
The entire question of forestry as a purported “enviro-friendly” or “climate friendly” solution needs to be much more closely examined. Otherwise, AO/ NZ could be setting itself up for as big a problem in the future as our reliance on tourism is turning out to have been, right now. (And there is also the separate but even more weighty question of foreign ownership!)
For one thing, ‘farming’ does not sit easily at all under one tag. There are many, many different approaches to farming already here in Aotearoa. Yes, intensive dairying is a problem, as is sole reliance on other heavy livestock where this is carried out intensively. But there are many other kinds of farms out there.
One answer would be to encourage farmers to a) become much more enviro-friendly in the way they farm, and b) to diversify, including maintaining significant areas of natural bush. Organic farming practices, permaculture, transitioning farmland to – eg orchards etc… All these would be helpful to achieving a more climate-friendly self-sustainable AO/ NZ.
Most immunogists miss the point that many in our societies today have lower immunity markers now today.
I have reviewed the immunity markers of serogogy tests given me over the last 28 yrs as I was chemically poisoned in 1992 and suffered from low chonic white nblood cell deficiencies ever since then, which is a common immune dysfuntion after being chonically exposed to petrochemicals as I was for six months in a poorly dentilated workplace, and get a full “CBC” serology blood test at least four times every year since 1992.
The results of my review of global imunity blood tests shows that the leading companiies laboritories have lowered their white blood call markers, “reference ranges” of the white blood cells called lymphocytes and Neutophil referrnce anges several times sinse 1992, showing show during their testing of the ‘general population’s average white blood cell counts are dropping over the last tweny eight years.
On our request for information from the senior companies Laboratory Management they all conformed that the averge levels of wite blood cell immunity in the general population is declining over time.
So we are being affected by our environment and chemical contamination of our food sources, so this means that we are slowly suffering from weaker immunty as time goes by and scientists today has sadly pissed the point that the immunity of us all is declining and we are contracting viruses far more easily now.
scientists today has sadly pissed the point that the immunity of us all is declining
I think CleanGreen has something heroic about him.
So, when I say he reminds me Officer Crabtree from ‘Allo ‘Allo… it’s in that spirit 🙂
Good Moaning Compilation
CLEANGREEN definitely has something heroic about him. He is a battler. He has presented over the years with his activism and activists groups on plain paper what many of us never would have known about. He and his group are tireless, involved and have lobbied govt relentlessly.
I thus award him with the Sasquatch award for honesty , environmental and community patronage of the year.
Do please enjoy.
Neanderthal: Profile of a super predator – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZbmywzGAVs
Totally agree with and endorse the first part of your comment, W.Kat!
(The last part, …bit of a disconnect)