How National screwed us, the looming economic shockwave for democratic NZ from despotic China + why house prices will plummet
John Key’s ‘All our cows in one Beijing paddock’ strategy he pushed during his decade in power has back fired spectacularly on NZ as geopolitical tensions grow.
All that money we sunk into intensive irrigation so that parched plains could yield grass for intensive dairy has led us into an economic relationship that is very bad for us…
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- New Zealand’s dairy exports to China are worth more than $5 billion annually
- Farmers say the country is a “major player” and losing that business would have a “massive impact” on their lives
- Experts say New Zealand is “significantly exposed” to China on trade and is mindful of any reprisals
…put aside the climate crisis causing gases this intensification causes, put aside the water it steals and pollutes, put aside all that – we have an intense economic relationship with an authoritarian regime that treats human rights like they are optional and who is backing Russia’s terrible war in the Ukraine.
Farmers screamed that Jacinda was a socialist, seeing as Xi is paying their bills and propping up their farms so much, who is the real Red under the Bed here?
When China is putting $5billion into Dairy Farmers pockets annually, I think it’s important of us to ask, ‘who’s your daddy’?
This economic friction will only intensify. Putin has upended the rule based global system and this war in Ukraine with all its ramifications are barely calculated, but China and Russia are bound in this conflict as the first nascent kick of a new power block against the West.
That puts us squarely on the chopping block for geopolitical retaliation in the months and years to come as this new world order pushes back and China encroaches deeper into the Pacific.
Add the economic stress from China’s zero tolerance approach to Covid which keeps crushing supply chains and we have a perfect gravity of economic stress and geopolitical interests combining to create a double punch to the NZ economy.
On top of this is the unacknowledged impact of Chinese tourists coming to NZ to scout for property sales and we have a perfect storm of rising interest rates (predictions are two 50 point raises in a row), supply chain crunches, and falling house prices.
Being a world leading producer of the best food in the world means nothing if you can’t afford to eat any of it at home.
When the middle classes start seeing their house valuations declining, watch the venal nature of their political demands then.
Middle class Landlords are about to sound as self interested as Dairy Farmers.
If Winston starts a negative campaign against China, watch NZ First soar over the 5% threshold as those who don’t benefit from Dairy or rentals seek a new political home as National and Labour prepare to bend over backwards for them.
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It’s one of those “sounds like a good idea at the time” things, not that Jacinda & Co have shown any backbone with regards to China.
Anyway, times change and a trading alliance away from China, despite the hyperbolic headline, is not something we should be afraid of confronting. Same thing happened, at a time of far fewer alternatives, when Britain joined the European common market.
India, South and North America, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, South East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe and of course Australia are all in the same boat with regards to China but, more importantly, represent huge opportunities for our (relatively small volume of) exports. These economic, trading, political and military alliances will shape the foreseeable future. We shouldn’t be afraid to stand up to China, they’re really only as strong as we think they are.
Yes. We forget that China at the time seemed on course towards liberalization and we were part of something exciting. We know now we’ve been duped of course. We can only learn from experience – to invest in trading with like minded nations.
It was Clark who signed the free trade deal with China.
The saddest part of all this is one certain fact. If National got back in, it would be more of the same……with bells on.
They have a ready made excuse after all the Covid related expenditure to create another farcical “Rock star economy”. We must cut benefits. We must lower the minimum wage for x number of years. We must give tax cuts to benefit the wealthy. We must remove tenant protections in tenancy law as they eat into the profits of National Part supporters etc etc etc etc.
All the while National are telling and forcing you to tighten your belts, they and their ilk will be creaming it. Never was that better illustrated than the man who knew exactly what our finances looked like. Bill English. That didn’t stop him double dipping on his Wellington property. Nobody knows how to rort the system better than National Party MP’s.
They only have one love language……$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
The Chinese know this only too well and what do they have lots of? …$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
James Shaw says we do not have too many dairy cows so it must be ok the Greens only tell the truth.
If most of you above were gifted a brain it would be lonely indeed!–you seem to buy into the current narrative of 5 Eyes vs. Choyna–as Winston says it.
Joining the Non Aligned Movement of nations, and leaving 5 Eyes is really where it should be at for Aotearoa NZ in this era of climate disaster and COVID collapsed supply lines. Bilateral trade and cultural agreements will be a practical way to have relations with other countries outside of imperialist blocs manipulation.