How bad will the NZ recession get?
I’m not sure why, but some economists are seeing OCR cuts and inflation falling…
Interest rate cuts will happen quickly next year – Kiwibank
Businesses and households are holding on until 2025, which is likely to be a year of “significant” interest rate cuts, Kiwibank says.
It has updated its economic forecasts.
Economist Sabrina Delgado said while it still expected the official cash rate (OCR) to be cut in November – earlier than many other forecasts – it was next year the full impact of a fall in interest rates would be felt.
Kiwibank expected the OCR to be at 4.5 percent by next June, compared to 5.5 percent at present, and 3 percent by the following June.
…I don’t think that at all.
I think it will get worse…
‘Absolute’ plunge in profits just the start of downturn: Economist’s chilling recession warning
GDP: NZ out of recession but ‘don’t pop the champagne just yet’
Household recession 18 months old with no end in sight – Matthew Hooton
I think Unemployment will jump over 6% and the OCR will go up, not down!
Look at the bubbles that are building that will be breaking when Kiwibank believe the OCR will be looking to cut…
The Return of Shipping Bottlenecks?
The most significant cause of pandemic-era inflation has been disputed, but there’s no question supply chains suffered badly from 2020 to 2022. A backup of container ships at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach peaked at 109 ships before falling to four in October 2022, as Paul Berger reported for The Wall Street Journal. In 2021, a stuck cargo ship caused a massive logjam in the Suez Canal.
With those crises in the rearview, shipping is getting more expensive again. The supply-chain advisory Drewry, which tracks container shipping prices, wrote last Thursday that its composite index “increased 7% to $5,117 per 40ft container this week and has increased 233% when compared with the same week last year.”
At The New York Times, Peter S. Goodman reports that supply-chain problems are reemerging due to several factors: Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which have sent some container ships around Africa the long way; low water levels in the Panama Canal, which have limited ship passages; and labor disputes involving dockworkers in the US and Germany and rail workers in Canada. Goodman writes: “The intensifying upheaval in shipping is prompting carriers to lift rates while raising the specter of waterborne gridlock that could again threaten retailers with product shortages during the make-or-break holiday shopping season. The disruption could also exacerbate inflation, a source of economic anxiety animating the American presidential election. If the supply chain disturbances of the pandemic proved anything, it was this: Trouble in any one place tends to ripple out widely.”
…the West are importing 7%+ inflation this week just in getting the goods into the country as catastrophic climate change starts seriously impacting the physical capacity of capitalism.
I don’t believe there is any going back to normal as global warming takes over the entire agenda.
I think the banks want things to go back to normal. I think normal is dead.
Hadn’t really though of things in this was before but you make some great points – especially the capacity break down for capitalism. This will only worsen as right wing political philosophy expands (see France) and the ever increasing likelihood of Trump once again being at the button for the US after November. I totally agree that these factors are likely to further destabilise the capitalist world order and further exacerbate global warming. Good work you right wing f-tards – how many of you are holy rollers just wetting your pants about the possibility of global Armageddon – boo haa!
So in other words, we’d better keep sweet with China so our shipping doesn’t have to contend with all the aforementioned dramas happening further north.
Why not add North Korea & Russia to your list if shipping accessibility is your key criteria for trade in the future?
nope – we need to learn to live without it. That means actually getting on at a national and social level and curtailing the number of mouths coming here. Neo liberal economics won’t deliver it and the Westminster system of parliament probably won’t either.
Dont worry this government is totaly focused on the important stuff like saving the sesspint that is SHORTLAND STREET FOR FUCKSAKE .lET IT DIE 20 MILLION A YEAR FOR THAT RUBBISH .
GOLDSMITH should be sacked today .
Don’t you like Shortie Gordon.
Actually makes more sense to support Sunday and Fair Go and a second independent news channel that would get serious about things.
Yes, makes Melissa Lee look good.
And ….? Nepal, India, former Soviet States, yes, many many examples. But equally, a few basket cases. Capitalist economies are not all the same. Not to mention the widening disparity that capitalism encourages. Good for a few, not so good for a few, and for a good many the promise of a dream that is never quite realized. But, yes, in a simplistic sense Bob the First capitalism has lifted a good many out of poverty by providing employment and offers membership to the consumer club.
How bad will the NZ recession get?
How bad will the global recession get?
Bad?
Very Bad?
Extremely Bad?
Economist warns of impending market crash in 2025, expected to surpass 2008 crisis: A look back at timeline of 2008 market collapse
Harry Dent, well-known for his bold economic predictions, has indicated that a financial disaster of unprecedented magnitude may be on the horizon…
https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/top-story/story/economist-warns-of-impending-market-crash-in-2025-expected-to-surpass-2008-crisis-a-look-back-at-timeline-of-2008-market-collapse-433010-2024-06-12
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-global-economy-collapse-2025-kelvin-stott
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/next-us-recession-may-be-pushed-back-to-2025-according-to-jpmorgan-101712135237361.html
One thing certain, is that the pain will not be spread evenly, as they have always done the global US hegemon and Western allies will use their dominance of world trade to make sure of that.
If you think global recession is bad, global war is worse.
Increasing tensions between the big powers over global export market share and access to trade routes and resources will be exacerbated by global recession. The military powers of the world are not wasting $billiions practicing for war for nothing.
I have been doubtful about Kiwibank’s commitment to Kiwis and our nation’s economy so some scepticism is necessary. Economists are good at looking directly at the camera and making poncy statements. Sometimes after having heard a bank economist make a report for the business or financial sector on radio I’ve thought ‘I could have said that myself’, at half the salary. But I’d have no lasting power, couldn’t stand the stress of titivating up the figures to make them palatable and pleasing to the puppeteers and also find a good spiel for the peeps.
‘You’re going to have to serve somebody’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngXC2rAjFKA
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/521109/convenient-fast-food-outlets-will-ruin-tirau-local
We need to put NZ/AO business first. Be organised throughout the country with a Care About Us, Support Each Other group. We would give notice a month before and during the middle of a shopping season on One daynot buy any of imported goods, or during the middle of a growing season only buy NZ produce, or during a slow selling time have a clothing Buy Nothing day, not unfairly before Christmas though. If consuming is a money sector in itself, let’s not just be price takers. Save up and buy Kiwi, start a Kiwi Club that takes over from Fly buys when it goes down in October and put money aside for some new locally made garment or shoes each one or two seasons. Give security of custom to the locals.