How a Labour + Green + Māori Party (and maybe TOP) is the Left’s only hope in 2023

Latest Roy Morgan and the Taxpayer Union polls (taken before Jacinda stood down so are currently meaningless) show how effective the ZB Troll hate farm has been in driving post Covid animosity and a relentless tsunami of hate at Jacinda.

Coupled with Labour’s lack of transformation, inability to articulate what coGovernance is, our woke activist cliques superpower to alienate voters with their cancel culture bullshit and a down turning economy, and the tide is going out on the political Left.

This is a tragedy because the romper stomper hard right Government of ACT/National will usher in conflict culture destabilisation policies which will lead to violence, civil disobedience  and what could be a pitched battle on Parliament’s Lawns.

Don’t believe me?

Claim that’s hyperbole?

Let me ask you to consider the following.

David Seymour gets a double digit result for ACT forcing National to cut a deal with them for Government. David is far more shrewder and smarter than Luxon and will get everything he wants as policy, including the immediate sacking and cancellation of the Ministry of Māori Development alongside rewriting the Treaty of Waitangi (with zero input from Māori).

If you for one fucking second think Māori and their Pakeha allies will allow a far right cracker party like ACT to erase Māori political voice inside the State, WHILE single handedly rewriting the Treaty of Waitangi, then you don’t understand NZ politics and you should shut the fuck up!

I’ll tell you what happens when ACT announce they are dumping the Ministry of Māori Development and rewriting the Treaty after they gain power, the reaction will see an eruption of incandescent fury amongst Māori and their many allies that will immediately see the largest protests in this country with an enormous and angry Hikoi called to descend upon Wellington, and this time you won’t have thousands of angry antivaxx protestors on Parliament’s Lawns, you will see 250 000 enraged protesters descending upon Parliament’s lawns, and what do you think a terrified Christopher Luxon, totally out of his depth, will do?

He’ll panic and send in the military which will trigger unimaginable chaos.

Māori will not allow their gains to be erased by a cracker Party like ACT and all of you who don’t seem to understand this shouldn’t be commentating because you clearly don’t know anything.

My guess is that the vast amount of people who voted Labour in 2020 but have switched their vote in protest to the Right have no comprehension whatsoever of what ACT are prepared to do in power so won’t see any of the looming backlash at all.

In short, the extreme nature of an ACT/National Government could lead to civil conflict.

One top of that, their abusive social policy will push hundreds of thousands into more desperation and crime.

Under ACT/National all we will see are bigger prisons, mass immigration, a new property bubble, never ending rent rises, armed Police, removal of any environmental protections and a State prepared to use any force necessary to ram through their conflict policies.

With a hard right Government looming in front of us, the demand for the Left to actually co-operate to prevent that is essential.

In 2017 I helped then Chief of Staff Matt McCarten put together the Labour election strategy.

It was simple, use MMP to cut National’s support Parties so NZ First would choose Labour.

We did that by standing a strong public service candidate like Greg O’Connor in Ohariu against Peter Dunne to knock him out of the race and by bringing Willie Jackson and urban  Māori away from the Māori Party.

That cut National’s support Parties and made it impossible for National to gain a majority.

With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win while promising a 100 day plan once elected to pass a range of policy focused on cost of living issues.

To that end, Chippy should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.

Central Auckland – Chippy should have a coffee with Chloe to ensure she retains Auckland Central, the Greens are wobbly in the Polls and always over poll while their voters stay home and rarely turn out. I also think the international vote that always heavily favours Green/Labour won’t save them next year with so many expats furious they were locked out over Covid.

Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.

Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, the Maori Party candidate would clean up if Chippy had a coffee with her.

Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe will do that, and a coffee between Chippy and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.

Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry Brownlee has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Chippy had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.

At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party (with the possibility of TOP) Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.

A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since  Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.

It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom while focusing on real issues for working people.

The woke middle class activist base have screamed social justice for 3 years and cancelled anyone who disagrees.

This mindset doesn’t win elections.

Pure temple dogma over Broadchurch politics can’t win elections.

Poor people are not at home discussing who to cancel for misusing a pronoun, they are arguing over hot to pay the bills.

Chippy’s move towards economic justice over social justice signals that Chippy understands  how damaging the Woke have become to the movement, know he needs to play a far more strategic MMP election campaign.

 

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