GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Trump’s failed coup will continue to victory
Political prediction: Trump’s failed January coup is still continuing and will continue until its goals are achieved.
New Years Day is the day for making predictions about the significant events of the coming year.
Stuff.co.nz Journalists have compiled a list of their 20 political predictions for 2022
Stuff Journalists make only one prediction about significant international political developments.
This is it:
- The US Democrats lose full control of Congress, either by losing the House, just a single Senate seat (maybe Nevada), or both. This hobbles the Joe Biden presidency.
Apart from the above single paragraph, Stuff’s political prognosticators narrowly confine themselves to making, (mostly), safe and inconsequential predictions about New Zealand political developments.
The Stuff journalists don’t venture to make any predictions about the future of a ‘hobbled’ Biden Presidency for the US and the world.
If history is any indication, I predict that the violent Far Right coup attempt to reinstate Donald Trump as president in January 2031 is a precurser of things to come.
Inside Trump’s failed coup.
Among the Insurrectionists
By the end of President Donald Trump’s crusade against American democracy—after a relentless deployment of propaganda, demagoguery, intimidation, and fearmongering aimed at persuading as many Americans as possible to repudiate their country’s foundational principles—a single word [bullshit] sufficed to nudge his most fanatical supporters into open insurrection…..
Trump said. “…..We’re going to have to fight much harder. And Mike Pence is going to have to come through for us.”
….a hundred and forty Republican representatives—two-thirds of the caucus—had said that they would formally object to the certification of several swing states. Fourteen Republican senators, led by Josh Hawley, of Missouri, and Ted Cruz, of Texas, had joined the effort. The lawmakers lacked the authority to overturn the election, but Trump and his allies had concocted a fantastical alternative: Pence, as the presiding officer of the Senate, could single-handedly nullify votes from states that Biden had won….
…..“After this, we’re going to walk down, and I’ll be there with you,” Trump told the crowd. The people around me exchanged looks of astonishment and delight. “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women….
….a man in a cowboy hat, posing for a photograph, lifted his jacket to reveal a revolver tucked into his waistband. Other Trump supporters had Tasers, baseball bats, and truncheons. I saw one man holding a coiled noose…..
….The Capitol siege was so violent and chaotic that it has been hard to discern the specific political agendas of its various participants. Many of them, however, went to D.C. for two previous events, which were more clarifying. On November 14th, tens of thousands of Republicans, convinced that the Democrats had subverted the will of the people in what amounted to a bloodless coup, marched to the Supreme Court, demanding that it overturn the election.
…..a large contingent of Proud Boys marched by. Members from Illinois, Pennsylvania, Oregon, California, and elsewhere were easy to identify. Most were dressed in the organization’s black-and-yellow colors. Some had “rwds”—Right-Wing Death Squad—hats and patches; others wore balaclavas, kilts, hockey masks, or batting helmets. One man was wearing a T-shirt with an image of South American dissidents being thrown out of a helicopter and the words “pinochet did nothing wrong!” Another T-shirt featured a Nazi eagle perched on a fasces, below the acronym “6mwe”—Six Million Wasn’t Enough—a reference to the number of Jews slaughtered in the Holocaust.
Many of the Proud Boys were drunk. At around nine-thirty that morning, I’d stopped by Harry’s Pub, a dive bar close to Freedom Plaza, and found the street outside filled with men drinking Budweiser and White Claw. “We are going to own this town!” one of them howled. At the November 14th rally, clashes between the Proud Boys and antifascists had left a number of people injured. Although most of the fights I witnessed then had been instigated by the Proud Boys, Trump had tweeted, “ANTIFA SCUM ran for the hills today when they tried attacking the people at the Trump Rally, because those people aggressively fought back.”
I am at no risk of infringing Godwin’s Law to state; Trump’s violent failed January 2021 Plot is directly comparable* to Hitler’s November 1923 violent failed Beer Hall Putsch.
As the world knows, Hitler’s Beer Hall Putsch was a precurser to the German Nazis seizing power by other means.
If history is any guide, I predict that future US elections will be marked by a Republican campaign of voter deregistration, violent racist intimidation of Black and Latino voters, multiple legal challenges of electoral results, and political pressure on electoral authorities. all to deliver the wanted result, Republican Party electoral gains right across the board.
Tied with Democratic Party vaccillation and backdown, Trump’s fascist style anti-democratic tactics and manipulation, promise the Republican Party electoral gains across the board.
I predict that The GOP will fully back Donald Trump’s far right politics through 2021 and into the foreseeable future.
I predict that the Biden adminsitration will enjoy only one term in office before being ousted, (by fair means, or foul), by a Far Right Republican administration.
I predict that democratic countries allied to America including New Zealand will not raise any meaningful objections to the undemocratic Far Right seizure of political power in the US, and we will continue with full diplomatic, military and secret service links with the US with consequences for us all.
Pat O’Dea is a unionist and human rights activist.
Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election. There was plenty being claimed by serious high profile personalities , and multiple court cases in process to give reason for people to suspect that the Democrats had done a wide range of things to change the way voting had previously been done in the US to their advantage, whatever a distant observer from here might decide was fair and right. Most Republican supporters and quite a number of democrat supporters stipp believe that that election was stolen.
They mounted a protest without much planning or any clear organised and agreed objective.
My prediction is that all the results will be as suggested here but without any abnormal (for America) amount of violence. The republicans will sweep the mid terms without any need to cheat and Biden of god forbid Kamala, will be as lame a duck as can be. Leaving “24 a walk in for Trump or whoever replaces him if he decides against running again.
So we will see won’t we.
D J S
“…..whatever a distant observer from here might decide was fair and right” David Stone
We are indeed distant, why a lot of this post has quotes from an eye witness account that was as physically close to these events as possible.
That these events are similar to the failed Beer Hall Putch, is my judgement of these reported events.
“Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election.” David Stone
A “protest”?
Really?
Trump’s insurrectionists [unlike Hitler’s insurrectionists], were not able to capture and hold at gunpoint any lawmakers, came down to luck and the bravery and quick thinking of badly outnumbered police and Capital Building security officers, more than any lack of resolve of the plotters.
I have put up a credible blow by blow account by Luke Mogelson reporting from inside the assault on the US Capitol.
I made my judgement based on Luke Mogelson’s account.
D.S., just like me, you are a distant observer and have to back up your judgement of these events from those who were there.
D.S. If you have any other account from [anyone] to back your judgement that this was a “protest’ and not a coup attempt. Put it up. Let’s see if we can back your judgement.
Trump was responsible for the deaths of people at the “protest”.
There was no “cheating”, Trumps hand picked judiciary confirmed this. Why are people so brainwashed by the Qanon theory?
If you believe Biden cheated, prove it?
My prediction is Trump will be imprisoned by 2024.
All court cases dismissed which leaves your theories in tatters. None of your “theories” or accusations have been proven. However in order to promote fairness David Stone, I’m happy for you to provide the evidence(not heresay) so as I can be corrected. It’s not unreasonable to perceive you have made up your mind when you choose words like cheating( without evidence)in the same sentence with Biden and using words like “god forbid Kamala”. This is where critical thinking is imperative, rather than your personal dislike of Biden and Kamala.
Could you perhaps site some of those “dismissed” court cases and what the verdicts were? because what I have read though it was a while ago now , and I haven’t bookmarked anything, is that no court has ever been prepared to hear any of the cases brought, claiming a lack of jurisdiction to make a judgement.
All we have on either side of this debate is hearsay. If anyone on either side of the issue could produce incontestable evidence it would not be an issue of discussion.
D J S
Yry this David and I have read many cases most with Trump appointed judges…
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-courts-election-idUSKBN2AF1G1
“Similarly, on Dec. 12, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a long-shot lawsuit by the state of Texas and backed by Trump”
“Rejecting” or “dismissing” law suits is not hearing them by definition. The judiciary has avoided looking at any of the complaints by one means or another.
I can see the reasoning behind the courts taking this approach as they probably see preserving the appearance of a viable democracy is more important than actually having one. Probably in the hope that the system can be fixed (repaired) to restore free and fair elections before the next one is run. The repercussions of a fair trial that established that at least a part of the process was rigged would collapse the whole idea that the USA is the pillar of world democracy and do untold damage to her international standing as well as domestic confidence.
The polling that suggests over 70% of Republican voters and if I remember right 20% of Democrat voters now believe the election was stolen would seem to say that the judiciary have been mistaken in that responce and that they woul have served the perception of election integrity much better to have allowed some of those cases to proceed even if the did prove fraud. At least it would have shown that there was ab ackup legal system that worked. As it is both the electoral system and the legal system in America look decidedly corrupt.
There is much about the process , like making people in poor and black communities wait in queues for hours when they need to be at work in Republican controlled states that isn’t democratic either.
D J S
D J S
So very many hypotheticals, however the overall conclusion is that the election like supposedly every other was fair unless of course any Republican presidency was also won by cheating. I guess we’ll never ever know.
So remind me again where the cheating was and by whom?
‘Well what I think happened on Jan 6 was a protest against a not unreasonably perceived gerrymandered election.”
Lols. The claim wasn’t gerrymandering, it was fraud. You can’t gerrymander a presidential election.
Your perception isn’t evidence.
Trump’s ‘greatest crime’ was to be neither of the two choices provided by the ruling classes.
Many other countries around the world have made that mistake and there is a very long, well documented history of those people being removed by any means possible. It is not a long stretch to believe that they did the same in their own country.
I believe Trump is a terrible person (for many well documented reasons). I wouldn’t haven’t voted for him (or Hilary), but that doesn’t mean I am gullible enough to believe the propaganda.