GUEST BLOG: Ian Powell – Professor Baker is right; New Zealand needs pandemic political leadership
I’m not a Twitter fan. Instead I’m a reluctant user. However, I can only admire the precision of NZ Herald investigative journalist Matt Nippert who, on 12 October, tweeted the following:
The lockdowns were the first to go; then the scanning; then MIQ; masks; and even boosters. Soon, the only thing remaining from that time was Covid.
One of the most succinct statements I’m aware of involved Winston Churchill paying tribute to the enormous efforts made by the fighter pilots and bomber crews to establish air superiority over England defending it from Germany: “Never in the field of human conflict was so much been owed by so many to so few”. Quite riveting if one ignores his own record as an imperialist warmonger.
In a completely different context Nippert matches this succinctness. New Zealand may have given up on Covid-19 but Covid-19 has not given up on New Zealand. It is this context that the call for a return to government pandemic leadership, initially through Radio New Zealand on 14 October, by leading epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker should be considered: Professor Michael Baker calls for new alert level system.
Call for new protective alert level system
Responding to the first recorded case in New Zealand of the new Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1, Professor Baker said a return to some kind of alert level system could help avoid the worst in future Covid-19 waves.
In his own words:
We’ve already been through two big Omicron waves this year,” in March with BA.1 and BA.2 and July with BA.5.
If we see another wave rising, which seems very likely, and whether it’s BQ.1.1 or one of the other subvariants that are starting to become dominant, we’re going to see more cases and all the things that go with that.
What I do think we need is that we have a system that when the risk of infection rises we have the equivalent of an alert level system that describes the level of risk in a way that people really understand. We have alert level systems for fires, for earthquakes, for all these other threats. I think we need one again for the pandemic.
I think at the moment, unfortunately, government and other groups are quite worried as being seen to do anything systematic. I think we need that leadership with the pandemic.
These subvariants are often very different than those that have come before. In a way the mere fact that they’re becoming more common overseas and causing waves of infection means they’re more likely to do the same in New Zealand.
They’re surviving or thriving by escaping our existing immunity. Personally I know people who have had [Covid] three times. … and in some cases they say it was not milder when they got it again.”
Michael Baker calls for new protective alert level system
Michael Baker’s concerns are in the context of recent increasing new community cases (infections) and a surge of new cases in Europe driven by the subvariant BQ.1.1. He is advocating a new alert level system which would, by way of example, outline the circumstances in which mask-wearing on public transport might be reintroduced.
Baker’s proposal should not be confused with the alert level system first introduced in March 2020 and suddenly replaced by the Government’s confusing and less effective traffic light system (which has now also been dropped although without replacement).
700 more deaths this year?
Two days later NZ Herald published an article by its science journalist Jamie Morton based interviews with pandemic experts, including Professor Baker: Another Omicron wave risks hundreds more deaths this year.
New Covid infection increases
Baker observed that, over an eight-month period including two case peaks and varying mortality trends, the daily average of deaths attributed to Covid-19 has been around 8.5. Again, in his own words:
Simple extrapolation would suggest we might see another 700 deaths for the remainder of this year if that mortality rate continued.
What actually happens depends on multiple factors, particularly the impact of new sub-variants and waning immunity.
If the average mortality rate seen with Omicron continues to the end of the year we could see around 2700 deaths in total, which would account for more than 7 per cent of total deaths for the year.
That would put Covid-19 at a similar level to stroke and lung cancer, but behind ischaemic heart disease, which is our leading cause of death.
This estimate depends on the behaviour of the pandemic over the next three months, which is unpredictable, so we might finish the year with fewer or more deaths.
From following the science to laissez-faire drift to false certainty
Over the past 12 months there has been a drift towards a laissez-faire approach, despite the odd positive initiative here and there, to the pandemic. Government leadership has migrated from visible collective responsibility and protecting our public hospitals (and their already overworked health professionals) to individual responsibility and silence on protecting hospitals.
This drift has occurred at a time when Covid deaths have gone through the roof and public hospitals have morphed from being in crisis to carnage. The Government’s much touted kindness has migrated to creating political distance from the impact of the pandemic through desensitised indifference.
The current situation following the Government’s announcement (16 October) of its intention to repeal its emergency pandemic legislation is well analysed by a critical Marc Daalder in his Newsroom article the following day: Pandemic false certainty.
When the pandemic first came to New Zealand in March 2020 the Government justifiably claimed that it was following the science (ie, evidence). This included the advice of Professor Baker and his fellow experts. It served New Zealanders well for around 18 months. We were an international exemplar.
Then the laissez-faire drift began beginning with a misstep in the response to Delta in Auckland. Then there was the unsettling ‘rattling of the cage’ effect of the violence and other threatening behaviour of the far-right influenced anti-vaccination protests in Parliament Grounds
The drift has now reached a point that the Government is ignoring the science of the experts it previously listened to. Covid-19 is still in the country causing both harm and deaths. The only predictable feature of this pandemic is its unpredictability.
Setting up practical alert levels based on evidence to prepare and protect the public is not just the kind thing to do; it is the common sense thing to do. Instead the Government intends to repeal our current protective legislation without anything in place to provide this protection.
Daalder’s conclusion is worthy of repeating as it says it all:
The latest guarantees from the Government that, somehow, this time will be different should be greeted with a healthy scepticism.
Wishful thinking about the end of the pandemic may win votes, but it’s unlikely to win over the coronavirus.
Ian Powell was Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, the professional union representing senior doctors and dentists in New Zealand, for over 30 years, until December 2019. He is now a health systems, labour market, and political commentator living in the small river estuary community of Otaihanga (the place by the tide). First published at Otaihanga Second Opinion
Public hospitals were already in carnage.
This is about who is treated in that carnage. It has been acceptable for the poor and uninsured to die unnecessarily, or have their lives blighted by this disgrace for a long time before Covid.
And still no commitment to building a functional health system.
Carnage =/= chaos.
Lols, I remember a breathless twenty-something-year old TV reporter broadcasting ‘live, on location’ about the carnage at Christchurch airport due to delays over fog concerns. It was lucky that she didn’t slip in the blood.
Carnage: slaughter, mass-murder, bloodbath…
An emotive term but:
I’ve had one 1st degree relative die in agony in Middlemore for want of care. Happy to present the admin of this site with the correspondence with the coroner and the autopsy report.
Another 1st degree relative is tangentially involved with the investigation into the case that sparked the current interest in this institution. She survived – by the skin of her teeth – but the circumstances of neglect of what are considered basic standards of medical care in such an emergency, were almost identical. This too, is a matter of record.
I could go on with disasters involving family members not directly leading to death or near death, but what I’d like to try and communicate to those who live in a safe comfortable middle-class world is you…have…no…idea.
Carnage? yeah carnage.
Nah, you still confuse carnage and chaos.
It must be nice to be so comfortably off as to respond with word-games.
I’ll play, hell what else do I have to do as I can’t move very far waiting as I have been for a very, very long time for surgery to repair failed surgery. The result of that waiting is already permanent and unnecessary disability (a matter of record).
But to the word of the day:
Carnage: bloodbath, slaughter, mass death….
I have one first degree relative who died in agony in Middlemore due to absence of basic care. I’m happy to provide this site admin with correspondence with the coroner, and with the autopsy report.
Another first degree relative is tangentially involved in the investigation that sparked the current concern with the hospital. She survived (by the skin of her teeth) but the circumstances of dangerous neglect of basic standards in the same medical emergency were almost identical. Again this is a matter of record.
I could tell other stories from my own family, and from people I know. But for now, this hurts.
You think carnage is a joke? Maybe too hyperbolic?
Please
Do I Richard?
Please enlighten me?
The good professor can go fuck himself. I’ll take freedom over fear any day.
There are plenty like you over at http://www.sorryantivaxxer.com .
Read their stories, you’ll find much there to cheer you up.
A laugh a minute there.
Well Ian many of the same public that bitch and moan about the health system won’t lift a finger to try and help the hospitals. Even simple measures like masks in certain spaces are seen as some massive intrusion on their rights. It has become as political football through irresponsible politicians and platforms like 1ZB.
Couldn’t agree more, the govt cravenly caved in to the faceless business community & ran up the white flag half way thru the pandemic!
Listen to the science, kind, caring…..yeah nah…..there’s money to be made…..a complete abdication of their so called principal’s, meanwhile the hospital system goes down the toilet.
The Natz will have the answer, there’s money in chaos….Privatise the health system.
Again ian Powell is correct.
Chippy and Jacinda decided last spring that there are more votes to be had listening to focus group analytics than medical science and epidemiological analyses.
Just get covid and get over it.
This is the way.
twice, three times?
The Ardern Government was handsomely winning the battle against Covid right up to the moment Vaccines were put on the table. NZ like most countries have our fair share of expert-novices on Vaccines. This was never addressed early on by Ardern in fact the PM did the complete opposite. She totally minimized their their numbers.
If you listen to most in the anti-vax brigade you’ve seen patterns. Misrepresenting facts is common via wrapping up a tiny bit of truth with a bunch of BS. They also happily reach for the scaremongering button at a moments notice. Add to that picture their propaganda that invariably involve “experts” on vaccines that have now switched sides. Ardern should have anticipated this as it’s exactly what happened offshore prior to the PM’s big calls on vaccines etc. She did with other aspects of Covid but not the anti-vax movement.
Had New Zealanders been shown every side of the vaccine debate via media forms early on they would have had even more Kiwi’s making informed decisions. This set up the perfect storm when vaccine mandates were deemed to be needed. That is exactly when the protest movement gained traction here. A miscalculation by the PM. I believe she made the same miscalculation with the cannabis referendum. The “YES” vote seemed to be headed for victory. Nek minute Kiwi’s were being force fed a load of bullshit about cannabis. Cars driven by cannabis impaired drivers were allegedly routinely involved in serious accidents and ended up on their roof. WTAF? 15% of Kiwi’s are aged 65 and over. Many of them are old school with old school attitudes toward cannabis. They were targeted with fears of a zombie apocalypse. Our roads were either going to be full of stoned drivers waiting to crash into you or the next generation of young Kiwi’s will legally smoke dozens of joints every day so NZ will be full of young zombies. Nek minute the “NO” vote got their nose in front. Ardern again stood back and did nothing.
Two Ardern failures / miscalculations to my eye.
We locked down and took the vaccines, or not. I thought we did a pretty good job of managing it the best we could. We’ve done what we can for this virus – no going back now. I’m more concerned about what we’ve learn’t and put in place for the next one.
Both the creepy Baker brothers (identical twins) have been tied up with the UN since they were at university.
Just late on to this post. A nasty sort of commenter has crept in here – Tom Hunter, so negative and sneering 90% of the time so not worth paying attention to. Off White has got barbs into things before and they appear poisoned.
And Jim –
Jim October 21, 2022 at 9:12 pm – Both the creepy Baker brothers (identical twins) have been tied up with the UN since they were at university.
just a drop of pollution into the water, but what sort is it? I haven’t heard of the twin Baker brothers he refers to. Who, what, why, how etc. I don’t suppose anyone will inform me and I’m busy doing something else, but this is example of how confusing it is trying to see through the mustard gas thrown up these days by malcontents.
Anyone talking to Baker, much less complaining about their Covid getting more frequent and worse, is surely up to at least their 4th jab.
When are these people going to admit they got it wrong with their extremist “try stuff and see wat happens” mRNA biotech meddling; and that the traditional, precautionary non-interventionists (with their proven treatments and precautionary measures), who were silenced and shut out, were right.