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  1. The medical opinion of this post reminds me of the Proverb
    if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail

    There is much more to handling Covid, than stopping infections with ongoing Level 4 lockdowns.
    There are real people leading real lives.
    They have other health needs
    They have a need to survive both physically and mentally.
    Yes, vaccination is one tool.
    But so is preventative treatments and better treatments post infection.
    The International debate on Ivermectin springs to mind.

    So nice post.
    But Level 4 lockdowns, MIQ and closed borders are not the solution.
    They were ok in 2020 when nobody knew what was really going on.

    So its time to move on. Remove the daily fear porn, look at the science throu a clear lens(not the myoptic view of favored selected epidemiologists)

    Think of the children springs to mind

    1. The post mentioned a few simple rules regarding the need for vaccinations before travel would have prevented our current problems so I am not sure where your only tool is a hammer idea comes from.
      Your desire for horse medicine (Ivermectin) would suggest you prefer the wild west of the internet for advice instead of our well-qualified medical experts.

  2. Problem for the government was that the reported cases of level 4 transgressions you refer to were but the tip of a far larger iceberg. Aucklanders were, by and large, ignoring level 4 restrictions (especially after S. Wiles escapade to her beach) in any case.

    There was absolutely no containing the populace to level 4, so the government had no choice but to lift restrictions.

    it would be interesting to see the covid spread “modelling” and the value of the multiple they included for the active and passive resistance Aucklanders gave to level 4 restrictions.

    Even in the last week of level 4 most Aucklanders were already at level 3.

    And maybe the “modellers” are wrong in feeding their machinations when we read

    “All members of New Zealand’s biggest cluster in the Delta outbreak, at a Māngere church, have fully recovered from Covid-19, the leader’s wife, faletua Rebekah Toleafoa, has confirmed.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126733557/covid19-all-386-auckland-church-cluster-cases-recovered-brought-closer-by-outbreak

    Sure there are going to be hospitalisations, sure there is going to be death. But that is the price of freedom. The majority is ready (vaccinated) to face the future and its freedom. They will not be dictated to by the tyranny of the minority.

    Chris Trotter has it 100% right in his opinion piece today in the TDB.

    “Keeping Auckland in tow electorally, and keeping its citizens locked-down until Christmas and beyond, don’t really add up as a winning political formula. Especially when a good 70-75 percent of Aucklanders have dutifully presented themselves for their double-dose of the Pfizer vaccine. The idea that they must remain confined within their city’s boundaries, while the unvaccinated of Auckland – and the rest of New Zealand – are wooed and cossetted in what is beginning to look like a futile attempt to persuade them to do the decent thing, is becoming less-and-less saleable as a political proposition.”

    It would be interesting to have a outcome modeled for a level 4 lockdown scenario in regards continuous compliance. Auckland at level 4 for 5 weeks was about as long as one could enforce the lockdown I would suggest before civil unrest (no not just the published aberrations ones) and disobedience makes the whole thing a farce. For example an underground network of hairdressers was operating throughout level 4. How do you think the ladies of Auckland continued to look so nicely coiffured?

  3. I think, like the other comments here so far, this is a far too simplistic post focussed on the health response only and ignoring other parts of the equation. I was all for the level 4 lockdown as we had previously done, it had a chance of working and you don’t turn that opportunity down when delta is concerned. But it was apparent in the second half of the level 4 lockdown that daily case numbers were barely decreasing – if at all. Anecdotally people were getting tired of level 4 based on the traffic volumes increasing with each passing day. The daily briefings showed that the community spread wasn’t from people passing each other in the supermarket, or essential workers passing it on. Which only left households mingling and people ignoring the rules. So the rational course of action was to move to a new approach. Now that vaccination largely removes the threat of hospitalisation or severe disease, obsessing over the daily case numbers becomes less important (something I feel the media haven’t cottoned on to yet). We all know the case numbers are going to go up over time under this new strategy, but they certainly aren’t exponential yet and with a high vaccination rate probably won’t ever be. As long as we dampen down the risk of serious illness the hospitals will cope. I think the government, wilst making a few missteps, has handled this pandemic very well to date.

    1. You and the earlier respondents are wrong Brad based on the evidence. There were fluctuations in daily infections but the trend was clear – first turnaround the upwards surge and then downwards. Directly due to this there were two single digit daily infections within the first week of Level 3. The reported daily cases are always at least a week after the infection happened. Just over a week after Level 3 started boom and we are now in the mess that we are in. The modellers were right. Rampant infectiousness; increasing hospitalisations for longer periods (‘long Covid’ linked to Delta); public hospitals under increased pressure. Auckland is now going to be in lockdown for longer than it would have been if the government hadn’t had its ‘Gladys moment’.

  4. I think Jacindas Gladys moment was repatriating people who went to Os under the bubble after the NSW outbreak.

  5. Thank you Ian Powell.
    It is important that the record not be rewritten and even more so that the nature of the advice taken and ignored in regard to the September capitulation is made fully public.

  6. You and the earlier respondents are wrong Brad based on the evidence. There were fluctuations in daily infections but the trend was clear – first turnaround the upwards surge and then downwards. Directly due to this there were two single digit daily infections within the first week of Level 3. The reported daily cases are always at least a week after the infection happened. Just over a week after Level 3 started boom and we are now in the mess that we are in. The modellers were right. Rampant infectiousness; increasing hospitalisations for longer periods (‘long Covid’ linked to Delta); public hospitals under increased pressure. Auckland is now going to be in lockdown for longer than it would have been if the government hadn’t had its ‘Gladys moment’.

    1. I agree, the decision to end elimination was made when they moved Auckland to level 3.
      It was clearly political not health based, but there has been much obfuscation of this fact lest the government be held accountable for the upcoming fatalities.
      Also clearly they are opting for a (hopefully) controlled spread scenario.

    2. Must be easy to look at nothing but figures, figure out what if scenarios and play at modeling. Have you considered the human side in any equation?

      Here is a human side that is deeply personal for our family. Due to covid lockdown we were unable to proceed with the transfer of an elderly parent (near getting the telegram from the Queen age) from her retirement village to a rest home. So our mother is has been left totally helpless with only across the gate deliveries of food parcels, completed laundry, and a smile plus wave from across a quart yard as human contact.

      She has a twice weekly visit from an aged care worker to shower her. This aged care worker is not allowed to do any cleaning. Her toilet has not been cleaned for 10 weeks, her shower has not been cleaned for 10 weeks, her kitchen has not been cleaned for 10 weeks, her floors not washed or vacummed for 10 weeks. She can barely manage to make her own bed. So cannot cook though the village will provide meals if we dont pass the food through the gate portal.

      She now simply wants covid to come and take her away. We keep saying to her to use her St Johns emergency call button, but she is from the greatest generation and does not want to bother anyone. In he rmind she is coping when we can all see she is not.

      Can you put that scenario in your modeling please, and tell me why the heck your words are worth anything unless you do.

      This is but one case there are thousands and thousand and thousands and thousands more like this that you are not putting into your figures.

      So excuse me if I dont take a blind bit of notice in what you say. You have no idea what a continuous lock down is like and how badly the people are treated. Same as for the pencil pushers and politicians in Wellington or those safely ensconsed at the beach not having not an iota of empathy for us seeking out a an existence, under the jackboot of tyranny, here in deepest darkest South Auckland.

      The people here are now very angry at the lack of empathy from the “experts”.

      1. Gerrit For elderly in the situation you describe are tough, it’s a choice between isolation or highly elevated likelihood of infection and death. It seems you prefer the risk of death.
        Whatever you prefer your complaints won’t make the available choices any more numerous.

        1. edit: …. For elderly in the situation you describe [the choices] are tough….

        2. That is the most despicable reply I have ever read. No wonder the “experts” are now so contemptible and despised.

          There is no risk of death, We are double vaxed, covid free (by test) and totally not a risk.

          Somewhere amongst the Bakers, Wiles. Powells and their like there must be a scrap of humanity, empathy , kindness and flexibility?

          Do you have any?

          Hopefully you and the “experts” have had their 15 minutes of fame and can now all bugger off and leave the responsibly vaxed and tested people to live a live of self determination.

          You have no idea of the utter hatred now filling Auckland for “experts” dealing in numbers but completely devoid of human kindness.

          1. This is known as “shooting the messenger”. I can understand your frustration, especially as your dear one wouldn’t take the one course that could help her. Turning on the health advisors and modellers is basically denying the science and is a red herring.

          2. Let me give this one more try. Had the government followed the proposed scenario of the modellers by remainint in Level 4 longer it is most likely that Auckland would by the end of October (perhaps even now) be out of lockdown and in Level 2.

            But, because it blinkied and changed tact, Auckland is now likely to be in lockdown until the end of November.

            Where is the “humanity, empathy , kindness and flexibility” in this outcome?

            Incidentally don’t assume that the ‘experts’ you deride haven’t experienced their share of private upset over the impact of the virus.

  7. “Berejiklian proved to be a competent leader in the pandemic response.”..I have two words for that “Ruby Princess”..And, I have been keeping track of the developments there, as I was living in WA until getting trapped here when NZ went into lockdown a month after my arrival, and I can say that Gladys wasn’t a “leading figure” in the premieres ccabinet, It was Dan Andrews, Mark McGowan, and Annastacia Palaszczuk who were doing the most to shake things up… As evidenced by the partisan political attacks on them by the Murdoch owned media there on behalf of the largely incompetent PM.. The only thing that saved NSW from becoming a raging hellhole was that the original strain wasn’t that hard to contain, as it had yet to reach the level of contagion Delta has… and, of course, The nSW govt did pull it’s act together once they realised that they were taking the blame for helping it to spread much faster in other states… And The travel bubble was always a stupid idea, especially as Sydney was always going to be the most vulnerable city in the country to reinfection.. My choice, if would always have been WA, as they have stood out as a shining example of competent, and unflappable, mature leadership.. It would have been of benefit to both NZ and WA, as a tourist destination for kiwis, and Westies.. I know Sydney is an international gateway, but that is a very good reason not to go there in a pandemic… As a convenient pressure relief valve while we wait for the tory states, and central govt to catch up to what is best practice (assuming that ever happens) it would have been invaluable.. Now, thanks to going along with what amounts to a rabble of incompetent, and self serving blowhards, we are now back in the sludge with the rest of the no hopers… Nzers are the authors of their own misfortune to a large degree, as evidenced by the numbers of self important muddle heads that represent the biggest threat to our getting out of this in anything like one piece.. My own ambition equates to waiting for my opportunity to go back to where I know I can have a life, rather than rot away here in the John Key driven hell hole this country has become… Most expensive food I, ve ever come across, higher rents, and lowest wages in comparison compared to any country/city I’ve been to, and less variety of goods available at even close to reasonable cost… You do know that it took nearly a full three weeks before the NSW govt lifted a finger after the delta variant arrived, and had already started it’s inexorable march across Australia, and over to NZ… Thrree weeks sitting on ones hand is not a “blink” it’s asleep at the wheel… That didn’t happen like that here… so the comparisons suggest to me, a self serving agenda being pushed.. And for whom is this to benefit?

    1. Berejiklian flubbed the lock down initially but did get the state vaccinated, cases peaking relatively early and re opening amazingly quickly.
      Dan Andrews certainly gets mixed reviews in Melbourne and he seems to be struggling with case numbers transitioning to containment/living with the virus, despite the sacrifices of parts of the state locked down quite harshly for over 200 days.

      1. The biggest problem for Victoria, apart from the self entitled “morons with money” are the interstate truckies that were the main source of infections.. Nz is trapped in lockdown limbo as a result of the virus arriving on a plane from Sydney..
        “re opening amazingly quickly”.. Whether this is shown to be a massive miscalculation will be known pretty quickly.. At this point, the amount of party political propaganda flying around over there, and over here, makes it impossible to gauge whether they have set up NSW for a massive second wave of delta.. It pays to keep in mind that the reopening was a purely political decision, made by yet another god botherer, based on political considerations rather than common sense.. The shit has yet to hit the fan there, as it will, but we won’t be shown the results until it gets too widespread to bullshit about… Practically all the “criticism” of the Victorian govts performance is driven by Liberal party interests, and so, should be viewed with deep skepticism… We should never forget that we are getting the bulk of our information from the Murdoch owned news agencies, and TV channels who have ex Liberal party ministers at the helm.. They sound more like the NZ Herald on speed, or stuff , and news hub after taking even more ecstasy.. To assume that NSW opening up as they have is based on evidence of a “beaten virus” is to have ignored everything that has been said and done since the federal govt there utterly bolloxed up the response from day one.. They now have Liberal politicians dropping like flies as their dirty deeds are being laid open to the world.. Gladys was always going to go down, as she had been identified as a risk by the power brokers within the party, as her choices of boyfriend made her a liability that has allowed the theft, general dishonesty, and greed that has become the bedrock of Liberal/national party philosophy to be exposed in ways that are hard to stamp out… If you want to quote a genuine success story in Oz, look to Western Australia, and look how much money Clive Palmer spent, with huge donations, and vocal support from the federal Liberal party to try to break their system, purely so that they could go in there and restart the outbreak there.. Don’t be fooled by uncle Ruperts bullshit.. NZ is much better off keeping hard borders than allowing themselves to be fucked up again by lying Australian politicians…

  8. My sentiments precisely, Dr. Powell. I think the government hit the panic button after Key’s outburst.
    If they had held fast at level 4 for a bit longer, as you say, it would have meant less pain in the longer term.

  9. I think Level 4 now would be doomed to fail. Severe lockdowns are really a one off and Auckland has been hammered by most of these by far since Covid came to NZ, albeit up until 17 August, only one Level 4.

    Therefore Aucklanders tolerance this time around was low plus the knowledge that enforcement under the current police commissioner was weak. Those two factors meant those on the margins of society, which has grown since Covid 1 through our housing crisis, were more likely to ignore restrictions. In the final days of Level 4 the numbers kept growing in those marginal areas. Short and sharp became a lie.

    Unfortunately the war was lost for a couple of reasons, namely a lack of resolve and a lack of planning. When it turned pear shaped in NSW they were slow to react and instead of standing by their word of shutting the border in a heartbeat, they dithered then in “kindness” allowed plane loads to return and self isolate. No wonder it got into Auckland.

    And secondly, our government chose to sit back and leave the pandemic and Covid Delta to fate. There is no evidence to date they spent the last 18 months preparing or contingency planning or at anytime at all. Their solution, should the worst happen, was last year’s solution to last year’s disease. It was never going to work!

    I too am tired of blaming Aucklanders for an unnecessary situation they found themselves in for want of far better governance. The blame lies with our government!

  10. So, you are trying to equate Ms Berejiklian’s long (ten day-ish) delay in requiring her state to enter lockdown, with our own PM’s decision to begin allowing Aucklanders to emerge from lockdown?

    Surely that is a false equivalence.
    The situations are significantly different.

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