Ben Morgan – Why the Russian army can’t deliver what their political masters want!
The recent order for the Russian forces in Ukraine to advance on all fronts demonstrates the disconnect between political goals and tactical reality. This article argues that we are reaching a critical stage in the war and it looks like Russia has advanced as far as it can in Donbas, without declaring war and fully mobilising. In the coming weeks there will not be significant Russian advances. Instead it is more likely that the war will either; stagnate roughly along the current boundaries or that Ukraine will start to advance and retake territory.
After taking Lysychansk, the Russians paused, not committing to large offensive operations and instead reverted to shelling Ukrainian positions and making limited probing attacks. It needs to be noted that these attacks are small and widely dispersed, 100s of men and tens of vehicles designed to test Ukrainian defences, gather intelligence and to demonstrate that the war is being actively prosecuted to their political masters.
The operational pause was very short, and did not provide time to re-constitute units and based on the information available it seems likely that regardless of their politicians the Russians fighting in Ukraine are running out of momentum. Evidence for this hypothesis includes:
- Russian doctrine and political pressure. The essence of both Soviet and Russian doctrine is offensive manoeuvre and although artillery is a key part of this doctrine, it is not the defining feature. Soviet and Russian armies have lots of tanks and armoured vehicles because their doctrine prioritises fast movement over-long distances, supported by artillery fire. In Soviet and Russian doctrine the type of grinding combat that we have seen so far in the east is a prelude to offensive action. After taking Lysychansk and securing a firm base on the west side of the Siverts-Donetsk River the doctrinal next step would be for a reserve echelon to push through and try to manoeuvre around the Ukrainian defences and prevent the establishment of a new defensive line. Despite Putin’s pressure and Shoigu’s statements yesterday this has not happened. The fact that even with massive political pressure, the Russians are not manoeuvring doctrinally indicates that they are not able too because they do not have reserves.
- The high rate of Russian casualties. By the end of June, the United Kingdom and United States estimated that about 20,000 Russian soldiers had died. Many more will be wounded. The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence had reported that casualties among Russian and pro-Russian forces were increasing at an unsustainable rate. Russia started with war with approximately 180,000 soldiers, meaning more than 10% of their force is dead. Another large percentage is wounded. Tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles can be replaced, experienced soldiers cannot.
- Russia’s ability to sustain military operations. The first months of the war demonstrated Russia’s poor logistic support. More recently Russia’s offensives operations are small and closely tied to rail lines. The reasons the Russian army’s sustainment capacity is low are highlighted on ‘War on the Rocks’ blog by commentators Michael Kofman and Rob Lee who argue that the Russian army is designed for short high-intensity operations and cannot sustain a long-term war of attrition, stating “The Russian military doesn’t have the numbers available to easily adjust or to rotate forces if a substantial amount of combat power gets tied down in a war.” This opinion was given more weight when the Russian parliament in late-June and early-July, passed laws waiving recruitment restrictions on soldiers and modifying labour relations and commercial law, increasing the recruitment pool and covertly militarizing industry to repair and replace equipment. Further, Russia has demanded that its republics provide ‘volunteer’ battalions to fight in Ukraine. The volunteer title providing cover for ‘mobilisation’ without mobilisation!
It seems highly likely that the Russian army is under political pressure to keep moving forwards. Summer is the campaign season and in September or October, autumn will arrive, the rain will start and the ground will become boggy restricting movement. Putin was ‘bullish’ after the capture of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and politically needs the war to be a success soon. When autumn comes fighting will probably stop until the ground freezes early next year. It is likely that he is pushing hard for further aggressive action.
However, Russia’s soldiers are human and they suffer the losses of their friends and feel all the normal emotions that men in battle feel. Many of them have now been in intense and almost continuous combat since February. It seems logical that the Russians are getting close to exhaustion and that a pause to re-group and re-supply is required. This process takes time, NATO armies would plan on about six weeks to rest and reconstitute. If Russia had reserves, it seems logical that they would have deployed them by now. So the question is whether Russia can scrape together enough soldiers to re-constitute viable and effective military units to continue the advance from soldiers already in Ukraine, or from barely trained ‘volunteer’ battalions.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have also been absorbing a great deal of punishment. Some factors make their experience different though. Generally, the side fighting defensively takes less casualties and Ukraine’s reported casualties are lower. Most importantly their motivation is high. This contrasts markedly with their Russian counterparts, who throughout the war have demonstrated low levels of commitment.
The Ukrainians have pressing strategic problem. Every week that passes Russia takes more control of local infrastructure in the captured territories. Russian workers are being shipped in, collaborators rewarded and the conditions for annexation being created. This is a huge strategic risk. Any territory that Russia can secure long enough to annex is unlikely to be returned to Ukraine because after being annexed it will become part of Russia, and under their nuclear umbrella. Ukraine is under pressure to move and appears to be setting the conditions for a transition to offensive operations, drawing Russia into a carefully constructed series of defensive battles that started at Severodonetsk.
Ukraine continues to deny their airspace to the Russians. Although the Ukrainian airforce’s impact on the battle is minimal, the widespread use of sophisticated NATO surface to air missiles means that Russia aircraft and helicopters are not influencing the battle either. The establishment of air parity means that the artillery battle becomes the tactical centre of gravity, it is the key battlefield function that by dominating they can shape the outcome of the campaign. Ukraine is now deploying NATO’s sophisticated modern artillery systems and is starting to shape the artillery battle. Over the last week, dozens of Russia’s forward ammunition dumps were destroyed by Ukrainian High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems. The United States does not appear to have provided long-range rockets that can strike 3-500 km but even with the approximately 80km range of the rockets we see on social media the battlefield effect of this campaign will be that the Russians need to keep large ammunition dumps out of range and to distribute forward ammunition dumps widely and hide them. Both effects complicate Russian artillery logistics reducing the amount of ammunition available at the front line. Russia’s ability to support distributed operations falling short throughout the war and the simple fact is that all the artillery in the world contributes nothing to victory without ammunition.
After damaging Russia’s artillery supply chain, Ukraine can focus on using its small number of new, longer ranged NATO guns to start ‘picking off’ Russian artillery in key areas. This will be possible because without huge amounts of ammunition the Russians will not be able to saturate large areas denying Ukrainian artillery firing positions. Instead, the frontline artillery battle will be about speed of engagement and accuracy. Both areas the Ukrainians and their new weapons excel at. Further, without large stocks of ammunition Russia’s frontline artillery will be used more conservatively, it simply will not be possible to obliterate defences. Instead, to take ground the Russians will be forced to use their tanks and soldiers, arms that have already failed in combat. If Russia’s artillery is successfully targeted, they will not be able to use it to generate the combat power to advance.
Therefore, it looks increasingly unlikely that the Russians will take much more ground in the east. Although orders have been given to stop the pause and resume operations, the Russians will not be able to achieve this and the current state of activity will continue and lengthen into weeks because regardless of what Putin and Shoigu think, Russia’s soldiers are exhausted and Ukraine’s artillery war is poised to become steadily more effective.
In coming weeks its is highly likely that the Russians will continue to launch small attacks in the east. But it is unlikely that they will make significant advances. In fact if they continue to concentrate their main effort against the fortified lines around Sloviansk they will be playing to the Ukrainian’s strengths. Wasting men and material attacking dug-in Ukrainian forces. Fighting defensively, will also provide important artillery advantages for the Ukrainians. On their ‘home ground’ forward observation positions can be carefully selected ready for battle; resupply is easier and they know the ground in detail so hiding their artillery and ‘scooting and shooting’ to avoid Russian counter-battery fire is simpler. If the Ukrainians want to destroy Russian artillery drawing them into a defensive battle is good tactics. At this stage it seems that the Russians will soon culminate, we have seen this before at Kiev. Although this time it is unlikely that they will withdraw completely, digging in instead.
The pressing question is what will Ukraine do in the next couple of months. It has spent the months since the war started training soldiers, getting new equipment and repairing and replacing equipment lost in the initial stages of the war. A large number of Ukrainians have now received training either overseas or in the west of Ukraine about using modern NATO weapons and tactics. And recently the United Kingdom announced plans to train up to 10,000 soldiers in coming months. Could this be the start of an overseas programme to provide long-term sustainment for the Ukrainians?
The Ukrainians will definitely stand and fight the Russians in Donetsk. However, can they transition to offensive operations? This may be a possible, with a good portion of Russia’s combat power effectively fixed in the Donetsk battle, opportunities open up for the Ukrainians to turn the Russian flank in the south. The Black Sea coast has become a hostile place for Russian ships and aircraft so provides a safe right flank for an advance east. The coastal strip is a long front for Russia to defend and tantalisingly some months ago the Ukrainians took the villages of Vulhedar and Volodymyrivka, 50km north of Mariupol on the Kalchyk River and the H 40 motorway. If the Ukrainians do go on the offensive in the south, we may see attacks from the north into the coastal strip supporting an advance west and we should watch the south closely.
The Russian army is a shadow of the Soviet war machine that defeated the Nazis and stood toe-to-toe against NATO for 50 years in Europe. Zhukov, Vasilevsky and the other great Soviet generals must be turning in their graves to see what their military has turned into through corruption and arrogance. An ineffective army stumbling; and struggling to defeat a much less powerful enemy while thoughtlessly throwing away Russian soldier’s lives. Let’s hope that Ukraine does have resources and can go on the offensive this summer because it will shorten this war. Finally, NATO and the world need to be ready because as the tactical reality catches up with Putin, we enter a dangerous period during which there will be threats and escalations that will need to be managed.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Read the map Ben.
Nick, Ben has done precisely that, which is the reason why he makes the conclusions that he does.
My take is a little different. I don’t think there is much chance of Ukraine taking back the Donbas. The activity on that front will be about stopping further Russian advances and tying down Russian troops.
Expect all the major action to be in the south. It is late July now. An offensive in the South has to take place within the next 8 weeks, before the Autumn rains. So expect a major Ukrainian offensive to retake Kherson.
It is possible, but not certain, that the NATO supplied artillery will be accurate enough to break up the Russian defences, and force a Russian withdrawal back across the Dnieper.
Russia will have trouble increasing the size of its forces much beyond what they already have. To do more will require large scale mobilisation. Will Putin actually try that?
In contrast Ukraine will build its Army to over 500,000. They have actually mobilised, simply because they have more incentive and a more willing population to do so.
The balance of forces is therefore quite even, despite the fact that Ukraine has one third the population of Russia. All of Ukraine’s forces are aimed at one enemy. Russia still has to deply forces elsewhere in the country.
I predict peace negotiations in the winter when the outcome of the summer offensives will be clear.
So you think the million man army is bullshit?
Yes.
As in a million man/woman mnobilized and ready for action. To activate those troops required outfitting, equipping, training, transporting accommodating, feeding.
So whilst technically Russia can call on a million troops, they are not at the ready. I suggest to get them ready for deployment will take at least 3 to 6 months. Logistically a large undertaking even making such mundane task as providing MRE (meals ready to eat) for a million troops required a million of those every single day. Currently there is evidence that the troops already in the field are using out of date MRE rations from 2017 (they usually expire after two years). Logistically already behind the eight ball.
Those million troops will need summer and winter uniforms. Add to that body armour , night vision capability, weapons, optical sights for those weapons and you get some idea that to mobilize a million troops is going to be difficult.
I may be wrong but I think she was facetiously referring to the statement by the Ukrainian Defence minister stating they would raise a million man army .
Having said that it’s good to see you recognize the bullshit he’s spouting .
Wayne, I’m having difficulty with the cognitive dissonance between what you and Ben see reported and what I see. I read all sides, pick out the common agreed facts, run Occams Razor over it. By that logic I would challenge every assertion Ben makes. So far events prove him wrong, I can’t see that changing.
You and I clearly interpret the same facts differently. However, Ben has been consistent in stating that Russia will dominate in the Donbas. He has noted the shorter lines of communication, the separatist support, and that this area was already substantially under Russian control. In that regards there is no real difference between what you are saying and what Ben is saying.
Those same facts would also indicate Russia is unlikely to be able to make further significant gains, except perhaps in Donetsk.
I cannot see the Russians being able to occupy all the territory on the east bank of the Dnieper. The difficulty Russia had in gaining control of Sievierdonetsk would indicate how difficult that would be. I would assess it as impossible with current Russian forces.
I would also say that gaining the Donbas is hardly worth the current war and the probably 100,000 dead (all sides).
As I have noted, the real future contest in in the South. Here the Kremlin did make a major gain. A land bridge from Crimea to the Donbas and full control of the Sea of Azov. They also gained control of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnieper. This was mostly all done in the first two weeks of the war.
That is where the next major battle will be fought. I think it is likely, though not certain, that Ukraine will win the battle on the west side of the Dnieper. They have already regained some territory in this area. However making gains on the west side of the river will be much more difficult.
Yes, Ben is clearly pro Ukraine and NATO support of Ukraine. But if you are able to look past that, it does not seem to me that Ben’s assessment is much different to yours.
Wayne, have you considered that Russias stated aim was to demilitarise Ukraine and that they are doing that by destroying the Ukrainian army in the field? Ben seems set in a WW2 sweeping manoeuvre mode? Why would Russia risk troops and kit when they are bleeding their opponents dry? Do you really think they wish to have to control hostile territory West of the Dneiper?
I’d content that there is absolutely no possibility of training and arming a resurgent Ukraine, if it by some miracle happens Russia will merely send some of the 90% of their army that stands in reserve. Its game over. The real issue is what can be saved.
Well, the Russians are not really destroying the Ukraine Army in the field. In fact it is almost certainly stronger than it was at the beginning of the war.
The Ukraine Armed Forces are likely to get stronger still, fully equipped with Western weapons. Hardly a demilitarisation.
Look at the likely overall result.
A modern Ukraine Army. Ukraine being part of the EU, almost certainly with a NATO guarantee of some sort. Finland and Sweden in NATO. The West generally more unified.
In contrast Russia gets the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. At the cost of 100,000 dead and hundred of thousands injured (all sides).
Russia is on the outer as far as the West is concerned for the next 20 years. Meaning harder to travel, more investment restrictions, harder to get high tech – for instance all modern civil aircraft are basically made by Boeing and Airbus.
In short, a major strategic loss for Russia.
Time will tell Wayne. I will be honest if I get it wrong. You won’t need to call for a retraction. Can I expect the same?
Hear hear
I would joke about someone who actually believes British propaganda about Russian casualties and who isn’t aware of the concept of ‘unit rotation’ writing about war, but this is no worse than the nonsense neocon lobby groups Institute for the Study of War or Australian Strategic Policy Institute put out. It’s equally worthless neocon propaganda.
Do you get off on seeing the innocent kids get blown to pieces freak?
lies lies lies Filthy imperialist lackey. The heroic Russian soldiers throw themselves in front of the four year olds to protect them from the pathetic Yankee anti tank missiles fired at them by those capitalist running dog neosovietnazis
Interesting that you think it’s funny for nazi demons to blow up kindergartens in the Donbass, yank. Your bloody nose is on the way.
Thanks again Ben appreciate your efforts.
Keep coping!
I can’t wait to see Russia get broken up into all those lovely little countries. Not long now. tick tock tick tock.
You yanks already tried that, and reducing Russian women to the objects of sex trafficking.
The boot will be on the other foot soon.
I’ll second that!
As always Ben, interesting and thoughtful.
I do have one ‘but’ however.
“Tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles can be replaced, experienced soldiers cannot. ”
Whilst true, broadly speaking, the Russians may be finding it more difficult than usual to replace tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles. Whether this is due to the EU sanctions or the corruption and inefficiency of Russian industry, or both, the simple fact is that Russia is unable to make good its materiel losses. If it was able to make good the losses you wouldn’t see outdated tanks being brought in to the theatre.
This fact has to have some influence on the development of the war.
Hahah, manifestly untrue. The engineers of the heroic Russian army are readily putting tanks lightly damaged by Ukrop nazis back into commission, right there in the battlefield. Meanwhile, the useless trash like M777s that the American empire is providing gets knocked out after a single artillery strike nearby, never to be repaired.
HIMARS are coming to a Rostov on Don and St Petersburg if little Hitler doesn’t raise the white flag. Nukes will soon follow. We are not scared of Russia no more.
lol sure nazi
Why don’t the minorities in Russia realize they are being used as canon fodder as the white Russians in Moscow go clubbing?
Cry more, yank. In human countries, they have patriots. Chechens are coming for you.
Tik tok gnome army, don.
Russians have achieved most of there objectives.Ive heard Putin say you can’t hold a country that doesn’t want you.
The east of Ukrainian voted in large for Yanukovych, speak Russian, and had higher incomes. West of Ukrainian would be to hard to hold. I’d say they will try complete the eastern crescent.But they’ve got there buffer.Like Isreal has the Golan, (recognised by the US 2019), Turkey in Syria as well etc.
“General Budanov correctly predicted when the Russian invasion would happen when others in his government were publicly sceptical and now says he is confident about predicting its conclusion. ”The breaking point will be in the second part of August. ”Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year….”
“So, somebody within the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed how bad the logistics are. He has also told the world, or at least those of us who read certain Telegram channels, this is from Volyanedia, just how bad the Russian situation is. We already knew that troops were also refusing to fight. The number of refuseniks is growing…”
According to our sources in the army, difficulties have already begun with barrels for self-propelled guns, howitzers and heavy guns. Barrels need to be changed regularly, or they will fail. When they fail, if lucky, you only get them to banana, as the explosive gasses breakthrough. If not, you get an explosion that injures and kills personnel. Let’s just say these failures are terrible for morale. Artillerymen know the barrels need changing. They also know what happens and likely why when barrels fail.
“The barrels wear out quickly, faster than the factory parameters, because either the steel is worthless, or they are made with a violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now, because there are few new trunks. Near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, at some point, one of the three guns worked for us. And it looks like it will get worse in the future,” says the Russian artilleryman.
Remember the general that shot himself? Here you have absolute confirmation of what we were told. Perhaps ninety percent was too high, but one in four tanks that work is a problem. I have gotten confirmation from a source on this as well…No wonder crews abandoned these tanks.
In general, the situation with the technical support of the Russian troops, according to many Russian officers, is becoming close to critical, and by August threatens to become catastrophic…”August will be really bad. We will not see new equipment, and there will be nothing and nothing to repair the old one. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine go forward at this moment, then we will have nothing to stop them, ”says another Russian staff officer.”
https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
Most of the world knows Russia has lost. When Putin’s plan a failed, he only had a lousy plan b hand. only thing left is what will Putin do or what will happen to Putin when he does realize he has lost.
He will do what Trump does but Putin style… blame others and start removing them for betrayals and failures… but how far he can go with that before he reaches the point where loyalists turn on him en masse? A Trump or a Putin cannot fail… they can only be failed by others… until the others finally turn and give them a final failing grade that leads to political oblivion.
Russia lost the war the moment they crossed the border. They got a shit army. They now have a 30% smaller more shitty army. After five months they’ve managed to occupy maybe 20% of a neighboring nation with one quarter the population and assets as they do. They started out already occupying maybe 15% for the past 8 years, so in reality…Doesn’t take a genius to see that’s pretty bad. And it’s only going to get worse as Ukraine keeps adding nifty new equipment while Russia is emptying military museums across the country.
The Ukrainian strategy of testing the depth and quality of Russian equipment as well as its organizational and training effectiveness has been the best approach. Putin did go for a quick win knowing that a long war would not be a good idea. But even with him likely taking into account some degree of dysfunction and unreadiness, plus logistical flaws, he still overestimated his forces capabilities.
The morale problems, recruitment issues and poor support for the frontlines are all being aggravated by everything that Ukraine is doing. And if Russian officers up the chain of command are loath to offer the unvarnished truth about things they will be pushed for results that they cannot deliver even more and they will in turn make even more impossible demands of those under them. What the cumulative effect will be and when is hard to predict but an army that lies to itself and its government cannot prevail.
The biggest danger to the Russian Federation is the fact that their mighty army has been shown to be seriously overrated. And when it is shown that you can be beaten, others will try to beat you. When this ends with a broken and humiliated Russian army, other regions will seize the opportunity to break away.
The lesson will be absorbed by all the ethnic “republics” across the federation and the “collapse” would go on and on. The center will not be able to hold.
“Most of the world knows Russia has lost..” such a full of shit statement Paul Judge. I guess you will move on to other delusions when what you write about does not happen.
At least I’m brave enough to use my real name in these ‘social media’ posts. Don’t be a fucktard, pro-Russian fascist coward.
Don’t be ignorant.
Wow, Zelensky’s V-weapons from his nazi allies are really destroying the Russians.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/15637
Oh… Oh… They can’t even damage a bridge for longer than it takes for some Russian-speaking guys to squat by it, tie in some rebar and do a concrete pour.