GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Ukraine – Ukrainians on offensive as predicted the Russians are losing
Last week, I predicted that the Russians were in trouble and close to collapse. Now we are starting to see more evidence that this prediction is correct. On Monday, we witnessed the first small indications of the Ukrainians developing offensive momentum by capturing Fastiv, Borova and Vasilykiv, small towns to the south and west of Kiev. In the South, we saw the Russians pushed out of Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, important towns that the Russian’s need to hold to cross the River Bug and threaten Odessa.
On Monday, I said to watch Kiev’s western flank, specifically Makariv. In the south, to watch for Ukrainian offensives predicting that these areas would soon provide evidence of Russian weakness and growing Ukrainian momentum. Recent events support this theory.
In the north near Kiev, Makariv fell about 48 hours ago the Ukrainians taking it back from the Russians. Now the Ukrainians are pushing north from Makariv and fighting for Borodianka. This is very important. The Ukrainians in this area are secure to their west, and when they capture Borodianka will be in a position to push north and east towards the Dnieper River. If this happens the Ukrainians could encircle the Russian forces north of Kiev, specifically near Irpin, surrounding them ‘fixed’ against the Dniepr River.
Essentially, in the north we could soon see the encirclement and destruction of the tip of Russia’s thrust at Kiev. the Russians in that area have two choices; either to stand and fight or to withdraw. I believe that the Russians will stand and fight because extracting a force from battle requires you to ‘break contact’, or to separate your force from the enemy for long enough to run way. This takes high-levels of training and coordination, something the Russians demonstrably do not have in abundance.
Secondly, trading ground for time in this manner requires political flexibility, generals work for politicians and are often tactically constrained by political interference. Over the centuries, many, many soldiers have died holding ground that was worth nothing tactically but was vital to the rhetoric of their political masters. I think, that this is what will happen north of Kiev. Recent observations made by retired American general David Petraeus, that the Russians are digging in their armoured vehicles in this area support this theory. Put simply, Putin will not allow his generals to withdraw and it is likely they will either be destroyed or more likely surrender.
The Ukrainians are also moving in the south, since capturing Mykolaiv and Voznesensk early this week they are now attacking Kherson. The attack started this morning (NZ time) and we will need wait and see how it develops but it demonstrates that Ukrainians are able to conduct offensive operations. If Kherson is recaptured it provides a base for the Ukrainians to push east towards Melitopol and perhaps even relieve Mariupol.
On the first day of the offensive the Russians looked like they were well-equipped, ready to fight like a modern ‘network centric’ force in the manner of Western armies, breaking down into small tactical units and swarming across the battlefield using advanced digital communications to concentrate quickly for battle. However, as the war has progressed, we have seen reports of Russian weaknesses move from social media to increasingly credible sources. Now we have highly credible reports of Russian soldiers running out of food and ammunition. Further, more and more details are emerging about the failure of Russian tactical communications. Russian soldiers are stealing cell phones to communicate because their radio networks are being blocked or are failing.
Current Russian tactics conform with this picture, the emphasis on bombarding areas rather than attacking on the ground hints a force that is not willing to engage in tough fights that they may lose. Recent loses of Russian generals indicates that senior officers are having to be ‘on the ground’ pushing their men forwards. Recently, NATO reported that their intelligence sources estimate 15,000 Russians have been have been killed. Huge numbers, the Americans lost approximately 4,000 in their twenty-year war in Afghanistan. A casualty rate (killed and wounded together) greater than 10% has a huge impact on both military effectiveness and morale, especially over a short period of time. Overall the picture is of an over-extended army running out of supplies, struggling with morale and unable to communicate.
The next few days are crucial for the Russians. Running low on supplies and under pressure from the Ukrainians who are now transferring from small local offensives, to looking like they may be capable of larger operations the Russians are in a tough position.
Strategically, the Russians are isolated. China realises that they are backing a loser and are not supporting Russia. We have unsubstantiated reports that within Russia forces are massing against Putin. President Biden’s public denouncement of Putin as a ‘war criminal’ is likely a ‘dog whistle’ directed at those men waiting in the shadows. Both developments reduce the likelihood of a nuclear escalation. It seems unlikely that Putin would escalate without China’s support. The thought of facing NATO’s wrath might be palatable but risking China joining with the rest of the world in a response to a nuclear escalation is probably too much. Secondly, any political pressure on Putin will come from the men that control Russia’s military infra-structure and if they are not behind him, he is unlikely to be able to take that action.
The Russians are now stuck with fighting this war conventionally. If I was in the Russian leadership, I would be advising that it was time to focus effort on key areas, give ground in less important areas and try to reconstitute an offensively capable forces. My advice would be to pull back from Kiev and avoid encirclement, to throw everything available at taking Mariupol and defending Kherson, to use the southern Dnieper as a physical barrier and defend the area between there and Donetsk securing the break- away republics. Then I would negotiate.
However, I am not in charge and as we discussed previously this is unlikely to happen because Putin has too much political capital tied up in Kiev and because the Russians probably don’t have the capacity to manoeuvre in this way.
Instead, the next few days are likely to develop in the following manner. The Ukrainians will capture Borodianka north of Kiev. Capturing Borodianka will allow the Ukrainians to get supplies on the E40 highway that leads straight to Lviv, and from there to Poland. Controlling access to the E40 will allow manpower, ammunition and supplies to reach Ukrainian forces in this area. Likely, the Ukrainians will pause briefly then push west to the Dneiper encircling the Russians currently located near Irpin and the Andropov Airfield on the northern outskirts of Kiev. Look for fighting around the towns of Ivankiv and Dymer to confirm this prediction.
It is harder to predict what will happen in the south, the Russians are racing against time, they have a dilemma because they need to defend Kherson at the same time as they are trying to attack Mariupol and are trying to do both with increasing limited resources. If pressure is maintained, Mariupol will fall to the Russians soon, but whether or not they can hold it will depend on Kherson.
Essentially, the Russian dilemma is that they need to either take Mariupol very quickly then commit their forces to stopping the Ukrainians taking Kherson, or hold Kherson then take Mariupol. Either plan involves hard fighting in urban areas and switching men, artillery and ammunition from one operation to another very quickly. The Russians have not demonstrated this capability. So, based on Russian operations to date it is likely that they will try to do both and fail. This will open up the south for some potentially rapid advances by Ukrainian forces, so keep watching Kherson this week.
In summary, wars are won in the mind and it will not take many victories for an over-extended, under fed and poorly led force to lose the psychological battle and turn defeat into a rout. The Russians are in collapsing and we can expect things to get worse for them in the next few days and weeks because we are entering an endgame, in which the Ukrainians are getting stronger daily as supplies flow into their country as the Russians get weaker. If Ukraine does encircle and destroy the Russian force north or Kiev or re-take Kherson it will be significant and possibly critical blow to the Russians, and their generals will see that. The real question is can they influence their political masters to allow them to trade ground for time or will they be caught?
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Good news but it cant come quick enough.
Putin will not move until he can show gains to the Russian people. As you say Mariupol is key and its important to consider what Putin’s purpose was in kidnapping thousands of ordinary people from the area and taking them to Russia. He had ample opportunity to let them out on the humanitarium corridor but repeatedly stopped that from happening. Next he is moving people in to Russia? Clear sign that he doesnt intend to leave without Mariupol.
This is FAKE news, when are you going to wake up to what is really going on. Putin is/has removed the Bio labs in Ukraine which are funded by the Pentagon. Biden and his son Hunter have ripped off the people of the Ukraine since 2014 and probably before. Wake up Kiwis.
Only fake news here is Russian propaganda fake news. Oh Ukraine is Nazi and oh, they have bio labs and oh the Russians in Ukraine are oppressed and if you hate Putin’s Fascist Regime you hate Russians. IF YOU THINK Russia’s the good guys go live there, they need some more people what with all the dead soldiers, the 40.000 peace protestors in pruson and the 250.000 Russians who’ve fled the shithole. BIDEN’S PRETTY CRAP BUT Even so 10 times better than Loser Drumpf.
The Hunter Biden laptop wasn’t fake after all.
A little too much Trump in your diet Jenny?
While Putin has bitten off more than his army can chew and his country faces total ruin, the Chinese are waiting in the wings to take large chunks of Siberia from them by default – there will be nobody there capable or willing to stop them.
Hitler used imaginary Heroism, glory ,,,, and the point of a gun, to throw the German population,,,, most of whom were civilians at the end ,,, to achieve the great victory that the ‘thousand year’ Third Reich is known for.
Ukraine, the corrupt puppet regime of the usa, the most corrupt and poorest country of Europe ,,,, and the only country in the world with Nazi storm troopers/’special’ forces ,,,, has a world-wide propaganda apparatus to make Hitler envious ….
Hitler was insane ,,,,
Nato are cynical ,,,,.
The cynicism that Nz has joined in with,,,, will lead to a world-wide recession and the collapse of our economy ,,,,, flushing our ‘Labour’ govt away like the pretty scented toilet paper it is ,,,,, Glory to us.
It’s conspiracy theory territory to speculate on why we are taking this stupid destructive road ,,,, but it will force a ‘re-set’ of some type on desperate people everywhere,,,, I’d advise NZer’s to forget about ‘wokeness’, and stay the fuck awake.
Here’s a link to the suppressed other half of the story https://youtu.be/OSkpIq3T-Zc?t=1879
P.s Great news ,,,, Madaline serb hating Albrite has died ,,,,, if hell is real she will not be going to where the millions of dead innocents, whose deaths she and the usa thought were worth it,,,,, are.
,,,, Except for the largest Nuclear arsenal in the world ,,, eh Andrew.
And that’s never-minding the fact the usa/Nato would have no plans in sharing any part of a Balkanized Russia with China.
I similarly raised this possibility a while ago Andrew . . China will be watching Russia’s apparent weakness with much interest and perhaps the only thing that will prove to protect the Russian Far East from the Chinese is the extensive nuclear arsenal that Russia has coupled with the very real possibility of their being willing to use them.
How come Morgan does not cite his sources?
David Petraeus the failed General of Iraq and Afghanistan is one ,,,
“Kelley, 40, reported the harassing behavior, spurring an FBI investigation, which traced those emails to the computer of Paula Broadwell, Petraeus’ biographer. The investigators uncovered evidence that Petraeus and Broadwell were having an affair, and Petraeus ultimately resigned.”
To get the real story, watch Grayzone’s interview with Scott Ritter, a genuinely honest person who also happens to be a genuine expert on Russia, its military, and the unfolding situation on the ground. The story he tells, convincingly in my view, is opposite in every respect from the story your guy is telling us. And if you want confirmation, seek out Douglas MacGregor’s interviews: another top US military expert who tells it like it is, which, in a nutshell, is that everything is going Russia’s way: the Ukrainian military is nearly destroyed, with the country soon to be entirely at Russia’s mercy. Everything else is propaganda and wishful thinking. And if you want to know the real story on the economic and military fronts reader Saker or seek out The Duran.
This Scott Ritter?
“Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[52] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself, via a web camera, after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl.[2] Ritter said in his own testimony during the trial that he believed the other party was an adult acting out her fantasy.[53] The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included “unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation”.[54] Ritter rejected a plea bargain and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[2][1] In October 2011, he received a sentence of 1½ to 5½ years in prison.[55] He was sent to Laurel Highlands state prison in Somerset County, Pennsylvania in March 2012 and paroled in September 2014.[56]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Ritter
This Scott Ritter?
“Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[52] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself, via a web camera, after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl.[2] Ritter said in his own testimony during the trial that he believed the other party was an adult acting out her fantasy.[53] The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included “unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation”.[54] Ritter rejected a plea bargain and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[2][1] In October 2011, he received a sentence of 1½ to 5½ years in prison.[55] He was sent to Laurel Highlands state prison in Somerset County, Pennsylvania in March 2012 and paroled in September 2014.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Ritter
If Scott Ritter was listened to regarding chemical weapons in Iraq ,,,,, Millions and Millions of Children in the middle east would not have been killed or had their lives Fucked ,,,,
James White seems to have no sense of proportionality,,,, or care for Children in places like Yemen, Afghanistan etc.,,,
,,,, Instead he spreads pro-war, pro-nazi propaganda,,, and would love for Ukraine to become the Afghanistan of Europe ,,,, with the long term child fucking future that glory brings.
Read his mind about Russians here https://www.mintpressnews.com/ukraine-propaganda-war-international-pr-firms-dc-lobbyists-cia-cutouts/280012/
1) I see you are still using the James White thing – you must think it is very clever.
2) Exactly what is it that I have said that is pro-Nazi? Or am I ‘pro-Nazi’ simply because I voiced my opposition to the Russian invasion / I have stated that Russia may win the battle but winning the war is less than certain?
3) Still hiding behind your pseudonym I see ‘reason’ . .
Read your link . . the Russians are indiscriminately shelling civilians but wait for it – the Ukrainians have hired some PR companies!
Alright then, if you’ve found a reason not to listen to Scott Ritter, try listening to Colonel Doug McGregor, advisor to the former US Secretary of Defense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFngc_8RiVc
There is wall-to-wall propaganda surrounding this war and it amazes me when I come across people who are so confidant they know exactly what is happening over there. It is exceptionally naieve to think we’re getting accurate information during any war but especially this one which appears to be particularly difficult.
Also look on youtube for Patrick Lancaster, US reporter living in the Donbass who has confirmed allegations that about the treatment of the Russian speaking population in that area
Complete horseshit. The Ukrainians have had their command and control destroyed, their logistics are heavily compromised by ongoing air strikes wreaking havoc in rear areas, and the only abundant gear they have is great on the defensive but useless for dislodging an entrenched enemy.
They can effectively mount local company-level counter attacks but are absolutely incapable of broader combined arms counter-offensives that require complex maneuver.
None of this is to say things are going superbly for the Russians, but the article is generally complete fantasy.
Even company level counter attacks could prove very effective if against disillusioned and starving conscripts?
It’s not the dog in the fight but the fight in the dog . .