GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan: Ukraine – Small indications of potential Russian collapse

ByThe Daily Blog

Today’s update is short, but exciting because it includes a risky prediction.  That the Russian army is close to collapse. In recent weeks we have discussed the motivation of the individual Russian soldier, the Russian army’s logistical woes and Ukraine’s effective propaganda campaign and the effects of these factors on Russian morale. 

Further, we observed Russian offensive operations grind to a halt in all but two places replaced with bombardments of key areas.  Today, two key indicators that the Russians are in trouble appeared.  

Looking at the two places where offensive operations are still active, we are starting to see an interesting story unfold. In the south the Russians are no longer contesting the town of Voznesensk, one of two key areas on the River Bug that were attacked last week indicating a push west from Kherson towards Odessa.  In the north the town of Obukhiv south of Kiev, that if held allows complete encirclement of the Kiev’s west side by Russia, is no longer being contested and is in Ukrainian hands.  Neither of these areas is vital and they are small towns but they may signal a significant change in this war. 

Yesterday, retired United States general Ben Hodge predicted that, based on his appreciation of the situation the Russian army had about ten days of combat capability.  This seemed like one of many headline seeking predictions by retired generals, however the small changes that I have noted above may be the first indications that General Hodge was correct.  

Reports of Russian offensive probes being pushed back may be an early sign that something is wrong.  So far, the case for a Russian collapse can be summarised as follows:

 

  • The motivation and training of the average Russian soldier was always suspect. Russian soldiers are mostly short-service conscripts with limited training and operational experience. Historically, Soviet and Russian soldiers demonstrated variable levels of motivation particularly in unpopular operations.
  • The initial invasion tried to deploy these poorly trained soldiers in a very complex, highly dispersed ‘net work centric’ warfighting model.  Lots of small Russian units operating widely dispersed swarming over Ukraine.  Operating this way puts lots of pressure on the individual soldier so if they are not well-trained and experienced it is a risky proposition. 
  • Further, the total force deployed was too small to achieve the goal if faced with any significant resistance meaning that if they met resistance, they did not have the combat power and reserves to quickly defeat it.
  • The small battalion battlegroups did meet unexpected resistance.  The Ukrainian’s did not collapse or welcome their liberators.  We now have very credible reports of high Russian casualties including lots of lost vehicles.  Less motivated conscript soldiers expecting an easy victory are likely to be affected by resistance and more likely to see a drop in morale. 
  •  That the Russian command and logistics system is not working is clear.  The inability to destroy the vastly outnumbered Ukrainian air force, the credible reports of supply problems, the video evidence of lost Russian vehicles all contribute to the picture of a poorly trained, equipped and led force trying to do something it can’t. 
  • The Ukrainians are dominating the information war.  Russian soldiers will have phones and be using them to follow the war.  The information they are likely to be seeing is that the Russians are bogged down, over extended and losing.  Further, they can see surrendering Russians being treated well. 
  • Finally, Russian offensive operations have slowed down and are now very limited. Yesterday, in the two areas subject to Russian offensives the Ukrainians gained ground.

People that have not served in the military find it hard to understand the loneliness of the modern battlefield. Soldiers today operate in small widely dispersed groups without direct supervision and operating this way is psychologically hard.  Professional soldiers find it tough, so for conscripts it must be devastatingly tough, particularly if you are on the losing side.

Essentially, if you were a 19-year-old Russian conscript soldier, standing in the middle of a country similar to yours possibly with friends or family nearby, knowing that if you surrender you will be well treated and looking sideways at your own incompetent command chain would you keep fighting?  Russian junior and non-commissioned officers must be tearing their hair out trying to keep their units together, explaining the lack of offensive activity. 

It is becoming increasingly likely that Russian morale will break and that we could see a catastrophic collapse of Russian units. This in turn, could lead to even a depleted Ukrainian army starting to take the offensive and push the Russians back.  If this happens it unfortunately creates a dangerously unstable situation.  If the Ukrainians are pushing Russian forces back, it could provide a causus belli for escalation and the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chemical weapons ‘to defend Russia’.  However, it seems that there may be powershifts behind the throne in Moscow and a decision of this nature would need to be supported by the military who will likely to be feeling angry and disillusioned with Putin for committing them to this war and destroying both the Russian economy and their military reputation.  

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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38 Comments

  1. This is going to upset the Putin apologists on here (I’m looking at you In Vino / Stefan / ra etc) . . who could have predicted that a lumbering army comprising for a large part of 1 year conscripts who do not understand why or agree with what they have been tasked to do (with insufficient training and support) would come to struggle against a defiant and motivated resident population fighting for their freedom from a regime whose lies and oppression they know only too well?

    1. Yet again you are spellbound by western propaganda.
      The Russians don’t do war like the gung ho Americans. Their approach is planned and methodical.

      1. Sorry Garibaldi should have added you to the list . . so surrendering in large numbers / abandoning equipment is all part of the Russian’s methodical plan is it?

        1. The Guardian is as trustworthy as a Hong Kong watch. By the way James the war in the Ukraine is won already.
          By the way the West is worse than bad but there again none of the others are perfect.

        2. Jeez James, the Guardian, propaganda arm of the 10 percenters who enable the 1 percent. The willing fools feel good paper. Are you fekkin serious???

          1. With all this skepticism of any ‘mainstream media’ I imagine you were down in Wellington recently with the Foil Heads?
            Imagine you get your ‘inside angle’ from some obscure blogger in Uzbekistan who knows a guy who knows a guy?

          2. I am just going to assume The Washington Post can’t be trusted as well?

            “In my book “Invisible Armies: An Epic History of Guerrilla Warfare From Ancient Times to the Present,” I concluded that scorched-earth counterinsurgency works only when the guerrillas are weak and cut off from outside assistance and the counterinsurgents have overwhelming numbers and political legitimacy. All of those conditions applied in Chechnya, Putin’s first war. But not a single one of them applies in Ukraine, any more than in 1980s Afghanistan. Putin is making life hell for Ukrainian civilians, but Ukrainian fighters supplied by the West can make life hell for Russian troops for years to come — and it will take more than a few missile strikes to cut Ukraine’s supply lines from its NATO neighbors.”

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/15/putin-cant-win-the-war-in-ukraine-but-cant-afford-to-lose/

          3. Washington Post aka Pravda on the Potomac.
            New York Times aka Iztvestia on the Hudson.
            Sorry James, your sources are pure bullshit. Consequently so are your conclusions.

        3. Look and learn James non-Brown ,,,, you Nazi sympathizer

          A History of NATO and Nazis with Asa Winstanley https://youtu.be/fwVZ8k5bvnU?t=556

          …. and ‘the washington post’ is owned by Jeff Bezos ,,, why don’t you ring him and ask how legit they are ?.

          eh James White ….

          1. James White?
            Are you fucking kidding me?
            Have you just graduated from some kind of primary school ‘name calling’ class with the rest of your lame Putin apologist mates and you want to give your new found ‘skills’ a whirl?

          2. Well let’s see any posts from you condemning police in regards to BLM ,,,,

            Your a Mission Bay kindy old-boy right? ,,,, not having lived in Auckland I still know thats a posh suburb next door to St Heliers ,,

            James whitey a poor rich boy wigga ,,,,

          4. Hilarious,,, Brown, like your taste in shirts.

            ,, and look whose a precious idiot who can’t take his own medicine ,,,,

            ,,, or was that some other Brown clown hounding a poster over suspicions of a Russian Surname ,,,

            ************
            p.s heard of Syria?? ,,, How rushed were the Russians in clearing the extremist scum out to Idlib ,,,, who won?.

            Your Nazi heroes make up in stupidity what they have in determined fanaticism.

            The idiots cant help tattooing their Insignias on themselves,,,

            So NZ should screen refugees for these self identifying marks of the fuck-wits when they lose and run ,,

            we don’t want these types of Europeans coming here
            https://youtu.be/NJYOg4ORc1w?t=7464

          5. Is there any particular reason you are so angry ‘reason’?
            Are you often like this when someone doesn’t agree with you?
            I think you might need to get some perpective on all of this . . maybe go for a walk or something / go see a friend if you have any.

    2. It is also a sign that the West can do useful things when they join together & provide practical support (in this case weapons) where they are needed. It’s a pity they could not solve the many economic /social problems we face using the same logic however neo-lib blindness seems to make it impossible for them to conceive of any other ways to run their economies.

    3. James, some of us sit on the sidelines carefully watching, not believing anything until proven. Theres nothing you contend that you can substantiate.

      An example of who do you believe. Heres some “information” showing the Ukraine claiming to sink a Russian ship.
      https://youtu.be/iRIpqb37ePU
      Heres the same ship supposedly spotless and floating the next morning.
      https://thesaker.is/russian-special-military-operation-in-the-ukraine-day-20/
      Take your pick.

      If you want informed opinions best go to a neutral like this Indian general.
      https://youtu.be/5iaq-jw4F3M
      Sounds like he scores it Russia lots, Ukraine zip, game over.

    4. It’s pertinent to note the deployment of the more inexperienced conscripts in the north and more capable units in the south.

  2. A reasonable assessment Ben, but as much as I wish it to be true it always pays to be cautious with one’s optimism.

  3. Not very enlightening James. Same applies in any war. Look at how the US gets their arse kicked by rag-tag soldiers who a fighting for their land. The only difference is that America loses then changes the rules. Nothing like starving people to death to save face.
    As an aside, what does your sick ‘Putin apologists’ comment add to the debate. If you are only seeking an equally flippant response, how about, “Does it hurt when you are sodomised over the Kool Aide dispenser?”

    1. “Does it hurt when you are sodomised over the Kool Aide dispenser?”

      Let’s keep your fantasy life out of this next time aom.

  6. It’s hard to believe there are Putin apologists on here. Putin’s government is a far right, reactionary, homophobic, racist, imperialistic regime which—like the United States in Iraq—has engaged in an act of aggression in direct violation of the United Nations Charter. Opposing U.S. imperialism does not in itself make a regime progressive or worth defending. Putin is also supporting Myanmar’s generals, so those people giving any credibility to this murderous autocrat should really re-examine their values.

    1. Nice to see your comments on here Paul – the Putin apologists have been working themselves up into quite a frenzy.

      1. So, James, in your simplistic world, people are either 100% pro-Putin, or 100% anti-Putin. Sorry – life is not that simple. Some of us are capable of seeing shades of grey, and are unimpressed by your one-eyed views. Much of it looks to be wishful thinking to my mind.

  7. Did Putin fall for a trap in attacking Ukraine?
    He was allowed to invade Georgia then the Ukrainian Crimea with little western fanfare, before he naturally assumed he could take Ukraine unopposed by the west but Bam! Hard sanctions that sink his economy and hard support for Ukraine that halts his army.
    Putins Russia is irredeemably weakened whether he wins Kiev or a southern corridor.
    Russia is now weaker and Putins regime shown as such.
    Who controls Putins nukes in the aftermath controls the world.
    USA or China?

    1. I imagine the Chinese are watching how Russia appears to be struggling against Ukraine with great interest – Russia has a great deal of very sparsely populated territory in its Far East which also shares a very long common border with China . . the Russians are very lucky they have nucs as this may prove to be the only factor dissuading the Chinese from a future land grab?

      1. More wishful thinking. Get real, James. If the Russian offensive does not soon collapse, how stupid are you going to look?
        The Chinese could well have that idea in the back of their minds, but only rabid anti-Russian propaganda. in the West here makes anyone think that such idiotic conjecture is reasonable.

  8. Time has come to treat James withe the respect he has earned. As a troll. Do not feed the troll.

    1. A troll now?
      Have a look through the abuse that I have been given and what it is that I have actually said.

  9. A megalomaniac autocrat psychopath with an unnatural obsession with power that allows them to thieve the resources of their country at the expense of the people, and who are prepared to send the young men of their country to their deaths in their thousands, and devoid of conscience or morality are able to bomb maternity hospitals and kindergartens, whilst creating a police state to suppress dissent, kill journalists and poison their political opposition? Yeah, Putrid Putin is doing his best to get into the history book of evil. In a matter of days he became a pariah on the world stage, and has turned Russia, a nuclear armed superpower, into a rogue state. I wonder how many of us realise the danger of this situation.

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