Ben Morgan – Ukraine – Peace talks, Russians admit they are in trouble
Russia’s position at yesterday’s peace talks in Turkey demonstrated the tough position that Putin has found himself in. The Russians said that as a sign of good faith they would decrease military activity around Kiev and Chernihiv. This offer should not be misinterpreted, it is a clear indication that they are in trouble near Kiev and are seeking to extract themselves from it.
Near Kiev the Ukrainians now hold, Brovary a suburb that overlooks Kiev from the east side of the Dnieper. Brovary is high ground making it easier to defend and also a good place for artillery observers to direct fire into central Kiev. Holding Brovary is vital to capturing Kiev. On the west bank of the Dnieper the Ukrainians fighting in Irpin, Hostomel, Borodianka and Makriv are threatening to envelope Russian forces in Vorzel, Nemishaieve, Klavdiievo-Tarasove and Buzova. The Ukrainians are poised to capture a pocket of Russian soldiers and to push the remainder back far enough that their artillery will be out of range of Kiev.
This is why the Russians are offering to decrease their activity in this area, it has nothing to do with ‘good faith’ and everything to do with preserving their dwindling military strength. The Russians are trying to extricate themselves from Kiev, however breaking contact or separating yourself from your pursuer is a hard, especially if you have resolute and resourceful enemy pursuing you. If the Russians can’t get away, they risk a large force being destroyed or surrendering. In recent days, a large part of the vaunted Russian, 4th Guards Tank Division surrendered at Trostianets. The Ukrainians are also reporting that platoons (groups of about thirty soldiers) are surrendering, these reports could be indicative of Russian moral failing. If the fighting in Kiev continues to develop as predicted we are likely to see more large groups surrendering. The Russians are stuck near Kiev and negotiating is their best option to get out of there without suffering an embarrassing loss.
Further, Kiev and Chernihiv and inextricably linked the cities are about 120 kilometres apart on the Desna River and are linked by main highways. If the situation stabilises in Kiev, the Ukrainians will potentially be in a position to relieve Chernihiv. It may be that they are even able to link up via Nizhyn creating a pocket of Russians near Kozelets and Bobrovytsia. However, these are large advances and the Ukrainians have not yet shown the capacity to conduct this type of operation. However, I’m sure that Russian staff officers (military planners) are nervously studying this area.
Russian staff officers will also be furiously thinking through and planning their next moves in the north east. Both Sumy and Kharkov appear to have withstood the Russian attack and small Ukrainian offensives are pushing the Russians near these cities. Trostianets, an important town on the main road network between Sumy and Kharkov was recaptured this week and close to Kharkov the Ukrainians are putting pressure on the Russian’s north flank near Derhachi. It seems likely that these small offensives with continue and that it will not be long before these cities are liberated.
Pundits continue to discuss potential Russian offensives moving either south from near Kharkov or north from Donetsk to try and encircle the force of about 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers defending cities like Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Bakhmut. This hasn’t eventuated yet and it would be surprising if it did, the Russians are exhausted. Even with new soldiers being drafted in from Georgia, Tajikistan and Syria it is not likely that they have enough combat power or logistics support to manage an envelopment of approximately 200 km.
Listening to pundit’s wax lyrical about potential Russian operations in the east demonstrates clearly the fallacy of ‘big hands, small map’. A saying good staff officers have drummed into them in their training; it means what looks easy on the map, is not always so easy on the ground. Any staff assessment needs to be tempered by experience and observation of what is actually happening in the battle. At present Russian logistics is failing at an average of about 60-100 kilometres from their safe areas. Further, the first days of the conflict demonstrated clearly that even in the good tank country around Kharkov, the Russians could not push an offensive forwards. Beaten by tough defenders and smart weapons. Therefore it is highly unlikely that this type of offensive will develop, even with a ceasefire in the north and a withdrawal of Russian forces there it still remains unlikely. If the Ukrainians let them go, the Russian soldiers released from Kiev and Chernihiv are going to be tired, defeated and useless until they can be re-supplied, rested and re-organised.
The only area that the Russians are currently making progress is in the south. Kherson is still in Russian control and while they control it their western flank is secure. Mariupol continues to hold on but its days are numbered. Looking at recent footage we are seeing the effect of massed artillery, whole suburbs flattened. However, history demonstrates that cities can last a long-time and the Russians will need to send soldiers into the city eventually and when they do the defenders will crawl out of the rubble and cause lots of Russian casualties.
In my opinion the real action today is taking place at the negotiating table. It seems that the Russians are now looking for a way out, a negotiated ceasefire in the north followed by a withdrawal of their forces near Kiev and Chernihiv, or perhaps even Sumy and Kharkov. This provides an opportunity to get out of the fight without losing more soldiers and material. In pursuit of that objective, the Russians will keep punishing Ukrainian cities with artillery because the suffering of their citizens is a powerful negotiating tool.
If I was advising the Ukrainian leadership, my advice would be to hold on, a significant Russian defeat at Kiev would destroy Russian material and kill or capture lots of soldiers, debilitating the Russian military. This not only embarrasses the Russians but on a practical level attrits their combat power and makes future aggression more difficult. The Ukrainians now need to focus on ‘winning the peace’ and every Russian solider killed or captured and every tank or vehicle captured or destroyed is a resource Russia will struggle to replace as its economy collapses.
The Ukrainians, and NATO also need to be looking at managing the future ‘peace’ because any deal is likely to see Donbas and the Crimea become armed Russian proxies contesting an interminable border war with Ukraine. This is not an insurmountable issue but needs to be factored into strategy.
The dynamic of the negotiations is fascinating as the Ukrainian ‘pit bull’ hangs onto the Russian Bear’s nose. And right now, the bear that bit of more than it can chew is ‘playing possum’ hoping that the dog will release it for long enough to pull back and attack from another angle. The next few days will tell us more, expect the Russians to demonstrate the cost of this war by bombarding cities infrastructure.
However Ukraine holds the initiative, it can choose to let go, or keep fighting and either option has serious long-term consequences for managing a future peace. Releasing the Russians in the north will allow a faster ceasefire but probably increases the chance of aggression in the near future because the Russians will have more military resource. Holding on, risks more civilian casualties and the possibility of chemical, biological or nuclear escalation but attrits Russian military power possibly providing a longer period before the Russian’s next incursion. Tough decisions for any leader.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Dream on Ben.
If all of this was going so swimmingly for the Russians why are they now proposing to withdraw from Kyiv after holding off assaulting it despite being within reach for so long / it seems that the Ukrainian army may now have more tanks than they started the war with?
https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraines-now-boasts-more-tanks-than-pre-war-times-figure/
I know I know – all sources other than your own can’t be trusted / I am a slave to western propaganda . .
will he wake up?
Not when he is so soaked in western propaganda.
garibaldi – with you on this. The anti Russia brigade are like anti vaxxers, in fact it’s mostly the same crowd.
Just can’t see the light, blind and oh so ignorant of the facts.
I’m surprised this war is still going, Ukaraine military is fucked, only held up by it’s blind faith in Nato, which is very little help at all. West vs East and the west ain’t winning, except in the media which is all bullshit.
Thank you Greenbus.
I think the next few weeks are going to be very interesting in that the western media are going to look rather sick as Russia continues to outsmart and out perform the rag-tag opposition. Added to that will be the realisation that the USA imposed sanctions have basically shat all over Europe.
We are watching America’s unipolar world rapidly changing to a multipolar world ,and I, for one’ think that is a necessary outcome.
The USA is going to be really pissed at how quickly de-dollarisation will happen Cheers.
I have a book written almost 2000 years ago that tells us who wins & it is not Russia. The signs of the times are happening at an increasing rate so maybe you should expand your sources of information?
If you think the Bible gives accurate prophecy, I find your optimism refreshing.
Russian military are running around like headless chicken atm ?
Says the propaganda you choose to believe. Let’s wait and see.
I hope you’re right Ben. Ukraine cannot afford to trade away its southern ports for peace because it would landlock them and make exporting their cereal crops very difficult.
Meanwhile we can be sure military planners are learning a lot from this:
>I don’t see many orders for main battle tanks being placed in the future when it’s evident a raft of man carried weapons can kill million dollar tanks and the people inside it. Decades ago I was told by a wargame modeller for the British MoD that a main battle tank would last “20 minutes or a quarter of a mile; whichever came first” in a full non-nuclear war. This has turned out to be true!
> The vulnerability of ground attack aircraft is evident. The Russians have lost several of their Su-25 ‘Frogfoot’ and Mil24 ‘Hinds’ to shoulder launched missiles. Having seen this, I think the Americans will regret committing to refurbishing their A10s. They’re vulnerable and obsolete. Ditto attack helicopters.
> Future air power will consist of firstly ‘Wild Weasel’ operations by stealth aircraft using long range ARMs, then high altitude precision bombing by conventional aircraft armed with smart bombs coupled with CAS by drones.
> Overall, it’s showing that waging war is a really bad idea, especially for the aggressor. At short notice the Ukrainians have been provided with a few cargo planes full of small arms sufficient to stop Russian advances. These weapons could be delivered to any nation at short notice and their soldiers/home guard trained in a day. Having failed to achieve their objective the Russians now have to suffer the consequences in terms of sanctions, loss of manpower and the political ructions at home when the truth is discovered. This is really good news for mankind because it implies an inherent stability in the international order. Blitzkrieg type attacks over a common border cannot be done by surprise today thanks to spy satellites and when they are tried, they turn out to be a tragic error.
Agree – this war seems to suggest that missiles have relegated tanks and ground-attack planes / helicopters to the military museums of the world.
Looks like the US Marines were aware of this shift and are already well underway in getting rid of their own tanks.
https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2021/03/22/goodbye-tanks-how-the-marine-corps-will-change-and-what-it-will-lose-by-ditching-its-armor/
Also imagine there could be a few orders for NLAW coming through at the moment . .
Taiwan should be buying up large on missiles and drones / concentrate on training militia forces a la Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces . .
Getting rid of tanks / APCs raises another issue. Who / what carries the rocketry and troops? Are we back to foot? Mobility gone?
If I were advising the Ukrainians I would suggest they continue to fight and push back and defeat Russian attacks but not embarrass or insult Putin too much. He might decide to leave Kiev but then send them just one more bomb safe in the knowledge that Nato will not risk their countries or WW3 for the sake of Ukraine.
I understood the down sizing of military operations around Kiev and Chernihiv to be a cororally to phase 2 of the Russian operation
Ie, having degraded Kiev’s ability to reinforce Ukrainian positions outside of Kiev, eg Mariupol, Russian forces can now concentrate on completing the containment of the major Ukrainian capability in the Donbas.
Attaching that to the agreements as “good faith” is just a little sop .
If Ukraine is winning, why are they now conceding neutrality?
And here’s a little something from the Washington Post
“But Ukraine’s strategy of placing heavy military equipment and other fortifications in civilian zones could weaken Western and Ukrainian efforts to hold Russia legally culpable for possible war crimes, said human rights activists and international humanitarian law experts”
Also from the same Washington Post, which has a paywall so I copy and paste
” Over the past month, Washington Post journalists have witnessed Ukrainian antitank rockets, antiaircraft guns and armored personnel carriers placed near apartment buildings. In one vacant lot, Post journalists spotted a truck carrying a Grad multiple rocket launcher. Checkpoints with armed men, barricades of sandbags and tires, and boxes of molotov cocktails are ubiquitous on city highways and residential streets. The sound of outgoing rockets and artillery can be heard constantly in Kyiv, the capital, the squiggly white trails of missiles visible in the sky.”
I have referred to the Washington Post in the past (and similar otherwise reputable and respected newspapers) only to have it pointed out (repeatedly) that these can’t be trusted due to their pro-Western bias . . so what is it – can the Washington Post be trusted or not (or only if the article in question seems to marry up with your own anti-Western sentiment)?
Up to you James .
As you can see,I’m a subscriber, I read a wide variety of sources, even the Guardian
I’m not so much anti western as anti bullshit
Has anyone here at Daily Blog mentioned “the Empire of Lies”?
James, today the great paper of thd real record, the New York Times has degraded into Iztvestia on the Hudson. Washington Post has long been Pravda on the Potomac. Both are propaganda organs that the unlamented KGB would have gloried in.
“The Ukrainian military has “a responsibility under international law” to remove their forces and equipment from civilian-populated areas, and if that is not possible, to move civilians out of those areas, Weir said.
“If they don’t do that, that is a violation of the laws of war,” he added. “Because what they are doing is they are putting civilians at risk. Because all that military equipment are legitimate targets.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/28/ukraine-kyiv-russia-civilians/
Well said Francesca, you are a fountain of facts about this war. Keep it up please.
And what if it’s civilians firing those rockets and anti tank missiles? I’m as sure as hell if it was me with an RPG I’d be outside/inside/on top of my apartment building in my pyjamas taking pot shots at any invaders. Surely all the women and children have left and the old and infirmed hidden away.
It’s an invasion by armed forces fer chrissakes – there are no civilians – there is only one way out for Ukrainians – kill Russians.
Grow up.
Look at the overall picture. Most of the coverage is of Mariupol . This city is an essential port of the Donetsk peoples republic that declared independence from Ukraine when the US orchestrated coup overturned the democratically elected government there. The population is largely of that persuasion but it is part of Donetsk that the Ukraine government forces , with a particular interest from the Azov section , has recaptured from the people of the Donetsk. The armed forces “defending ” Mariupol are not representative of the general population there, in fact they are their enemy. Any civilian casualties caused by Russian forces trying to take the city are of less than no interest to those “defending” the city from Russian forces. Russia is there to free the city to rejoin the rest of Donetsk and become an independent state .
The commentary that pervades our news completely dismisses what Putin said at the outset he was going to do , replacing it entirely with an entirely invented assumption of what his undertakings were. To establish security for the whole of the Donbas region under their own government, to demilitarise the rest of Ukraine , ie destroy their military capacity to continue to attack the people of the Donbass, and to “denazify” the country. Specifically not to smash up the cities, murder the people or take over the government.
Taking out defenders who are able to embed themselves among the civilian population that an army is trying to free from those very “defenders” is not going to be easy or fast. But it seems they are just about there. There’s no way it wasn’t going to be messy.
Russia’s failure to achieve it’s objectives in Ukraine can only be argued by dismissing their stated objectives and replacing them with invented ones.
D J S
Russia cannot and will not lose…take it to the..bank.
What odds are you offering Blazer 100 to 1 Russia will not lose ?
Does the author Ben Morgan have a Facebook page/website or something?