GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan: Ukraine – Operational tempo slowing down?

ByThe Daily Blog

Key information from Ukraine in the last 24 hours supports the theory that there is currently a pause in Russian activity.  Yesterday, the city of Kherson fell to Russian forces providing a building block for any strategy to advance across the south of Ukraine and create a coastal, ‘Crimean Corridor’.  This pause was predicted and coincides with both negotiations and with Russia’s operational requirement to resupply and reorganise its forces. 

A large Russian force north of Kiev is currently holding it position and appears to have halted.  The halt is probably because the Russians are preparing for their deliberate attack on Kiev, rather than Ukrainian activity.  

Approximately, 170 kilometres north of Kherson on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, fighting was reported around Enerhodar, a city that services the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.  This fighting caused a fire in one of the plant’s reactors.  The fire created frantic discussion in the media as people likened it to the Chernobyl reactor fire and meltdown that sent radioactive fallout across a wide swathe of Europe in the 1980s.

This incident is interesting because it demonstrates how confusing interpretation of intelligence can be, initial reports, from the Ukrainian side, painted this incident as deliberate environmental terrorism.  This is a possibility that needs to be considered.  Bombing a nuclear power plant and callously releasing radioactive fallout, could be a signal to NATO that Russia is willing to accept nuclear risk, possibly a step on the ‘escalation ladder’ before a tactical nuclear strike.  

Looking at the map it is clear that the Russian forces attacking the city are not looking to outflank Kherson, and move west.  At this point the Dnieper is very wide and also there are more direct routes to Zaporizhzhia, a city of approximately a million people about 40 kilometres north of Enerhodar.  Zaporizhzhia, may become an objective because it provides another crossing point on the Dnieper allowing an offensive against Odessa to cross the river at two points.  

The reason the Russians need to capture cities on the Dnieper if they want to advance west is that they need bridges. One Russian ‘battalion battle group’ has approximately 30-40 armoured fighting vehicles and probably the same number of support vehicles.  Spread out, advancing on a road each one cover tens of kilometres.   A bridge is ‘defile’, a narrow gap that your whole force must pass though.  Moving each battlegroup through takes time.  So it is always best to cross rivers in as many places as possible to avoid congestion and minimise the time it takes to build combat power on the other site

Enerhodar, does not allow a crossing of the Dnieper Rive and is not on the most direct axis of advance north, so it is most likely that Russian forces there are tasked to seize the power plant, an important asset. This is predictable and brings us to the question of the fire in the rector.

Two rules any analyst needs to apply to interpreting information are the ‘razors’ of Ockham and Hanlon.  Hanlon’s Razor ‘states never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity’ and I think that shelling the powerplant was a mistake.  

Interesting evidence is appearing that shows the Russians are not well equipped with GPS systems.  GPS systems are not only used for providing directions between points, they are also used in modern militaries to locate artillery.  Most Russian artillery in action in this war has effective ranges of about 20-30 kilometres and fires at targets it cannot see directed by ‘forward observers’.  The ‘fall of shot’ is predicted using maths and maps. If the forward observer or the gunline that is firing have not located themselves correctly then when the guns fire inaccuracy can easily creep into the fall of shot.  Even a small error in location can lead to a big mistake when it is extrapolated over 20-30km. Essentially, it is easy to make a mistake especially when you are relying on manual survey rather than GPS.  My gut feeling is that near Enerhodar there is a Russian junior officer in the artillery getting ear bashed by their bosses, probably all the way back to Moscow!

I don’t think is makes military sense to shell the reactor, if you wanted to attack a reactor as a terror tactic it would be better to use a cruise missile, long-range rocket or aircraft bomb.  


Other interesting points that can noted in the last 24 hours include the Ukrainian commentary on the ceasefire negotiations, the report was reasonably civil and humanitarian corridors were agreed.  Unfortunately, not many conclusions can be drawn from this reporting because the Russians have proven that their statements cannot be trusted.  

Another interesting point might seem strange.  Recent reports of powerful Russian’s daughters protesting the war on social media are fascinating.  Military analysis is my field of expertise; however this trend highlights the generational difference between modern Russia and its leadership.  A similar generational difference defeated the Americans in Vietnam.  In 1968 at the end of the Tet Offensive the Vietnamese were militarily defeated but in America people had lost their stomach for the war and wanted out.  The anti-war movement gained ascendancy and America exited the war.  Perhaps, the power of Russia’s Gen X’s and Millennial will mobilise and pressure the autocracy to stop this war.

So at the end of D + 9 let’s look at our predictions:

  • Russian main effort may start to switch to the south but don’t expect a respite for Kiev it will continue to be menaced and bombarded holding Ukrainian forces there so they can’t be used elsewhere. 
  • Continue to expect lots of activity around Kherson as the Russians probe outwards looking for weaknesses that can be exploited by either advancing north towards Kiev or west towards Odessa. 
  • Although, the last 24 hours was free of overt nuclear rhetoric the risk still exists that there may be a nuclear show of force.  NATO’s clear statements about not creating a ‘no-fly’ zone may be defusing this risk.   
  • The Ukrainian ability to challenge Russia in the air is likely disappearing.  The Ukrainian requests for a ‘no-fly’ zone have a hint of desperation.  Expect to see more satellite images of large Russian troop concentrations as Ukrainian bombers become less of a threat. 

In summary, yesterday’s fire at Enerhodar demonstrates why we need to carefully evaluate information and think through its implications.  The inflammatory coverage of the fire demonstrated how easy it is to misinterpret information. 

Today’s question remains – Do the Russians have the conventional combat power in the south to conduct an offensive?  At this stage we don’t know, but as Ukrainian air power is worn down expect to see clear evidence of Russian intentions as they allow more concentration and movement of forces in daylight. 

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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28 Comments

  1. Yeah, you are right to question propaganda about the reactor fire.
    Russia took both that reactor and Chernobyl days ago. Ukrainians fired on it, there some light counterfire (illuminating flares can be seen on video). Fire was in an adjaccent training buildind. Russians quickly captured the plant (because they had it already!)
    It is indeed desperate propaganda, grabbing a few visual datapoints to wrap a narrative around. We will see more of this in the next week, particular as the neo-nazi Azov battalions hole up in the centre of residential cities, and prevent civilians leaving via the humanitarian corridors. These are the same tactics Russia faced in Syria – the Islamists and the neo-Nazis get their military advice (and superb propaganda support!) from the same place.
    Look out for some videos of dancing “gold helmets” or something for us to get behind in the next week or so. Lots of kids being pulled from rubble over and over too.

  2. It’s a bold assertion the Vietnamese were militarily defeated after Tet.
    The trouble was no one told the Vietnamese.
    These were a people who wore a thousand years of Chinese invasion and still retained their nationalism.
    They were never defeated as long as there was still a man or woman alive who could fire a gun.
    And so it proved to be.
    Russia will be hoping Ukraine isn’t turning into the same thing. Afghanistan should have taught them caution.

  3. “Unfortunately, not many conclusions can be drawn from this reporting because the Russians have proven that their statements cannot be trusted”.. How’s that for military strategy then? The pot calling the kettle black… I’m now in the position of complately giving up on hearing, or reading so called “experts” who are simply piling on to the same assumptions fostered by our political masters in Washington… You remember them, the ones that forced John Key upon us so that they could rip our aspirations of “independence” to shreds… The only thing I’m getting from all these “experts” in the main is “Cluck Cluck Cluck”

    1. Agree with the first half but we foisted John “everyman” Key upon ourselves .

  4. RT unsurprisingly offers an alternative narrative on the fire in the power plant. They say that an attack on the encamped Russian forces was mounted at 2 in the morning from the training encampment close to the reactor building. They responded with shellfire and routed the Ukraineian defenders who set fire to the reactor building as they retreated. The reactor itself was out of commission at the time , the Russian forces took control of the facility and the opperation of the remaining reactors has carried on as normal.
    You get different stories from different sources. All one can do is try and chose the most reasonable as you see fit.
    D J S

        1. Think RT is not available any more .I don’t want to get Tor, or pay for Rumble.Southfront is ok and Saker, but he’s a little too optimistic.
          Duran of course, but I find some of their stuff problematic

        1. Thanks!!
          So disappointed to hear Helen Clark on RNZ this morning.
          She must get her info carefully curated by the Atlantic Council.Much of what she said was provably wrong, particularly about how neo nazis in western Ukraine aren’t supported by the govt
          The most cursory glance thru Youtube comes up with vids from Time magazine even, BBC showing how embedded neo nazis are in western Ukraine

          1. I expect the neonazis have far more influence on what happens in Ukraine than Zelenskyy does.
            D J S

  5. I’m not a military man by any means but am tied up with industrial infrastructure, supply issues, maintenance etc. What you are explaining sounds remarkable. This is surely the C21. Does a so called major power really display such lack in planning and foresight that it is becoming this obvious to neutral observers in a time when the worlds eyes are apon it? Surely a deliberate campaign of misinformation or propaganda? Feigned behaviour to provoke the enemy? I don’t know but watch with interest.

    Interesting take but and I readily acknowledge your skin in the game. Well done for stimulating the grey matter.

  6. Interesting commentary regarding the Russian offensive and the friction inside Russian society from News.com.au.

    If you have to tell your the people o unite behind the presidnet means there are opposed points of view. And like the “misinformation” proponents here, if you disagree with the state you “misunderstand” what is happening.

    “”Yes, indeed, there are heated debates among cultural figures,” Peskov said. “Many support the president, sincerely the president. And there are those who completely misunderstand the essence of what is happening.””

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cracks-starting-to-show-in-vladimir-putins-ukraine-plans/OU7GOBHCFBOB2F7L7QO7UUCVZI/

    I particularly like when Russian soldiers are captured they are immediately allowed to phone home to sow more dissent..

    “When Russian soldiers are captured, they are allowed to phone their families – both to assure those back home that they are alive but also to convey to them the reality of this war,” says Mathers.

    “If there is one thing that can effectively counter the Kremlin’s narrative … it is personal knowledge from trusted sources of information – such as the testimony of combatants delivered to their parents. And these parents will share this knowledge with their extended family, with neighbours, with co-workers, and with friends.””

  7. When I was following the events of the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, I quickly learnt to trust sources who were getting their info from the separatists as well as Kiev .The Guardian etc were always behind the 8 ball and many times flat out wrong .They were reporting the Ukrainian army were holding Dnipropetrovsk airport
    long after the separatists had taken it.This because they would not recognise the republics and would not talk to their officials and military leaders.
    Similarly , when the cauldron of Debaltsevo was fully sprung and boiling , there was total denial, and Poroshenko refused to acknowledge it.I was reading a far more accurate analysis long before the western news media had got their talking points together.
    Apart from that the news when it comes to international power plays is hopelessly partisan ,how can it not be .
    George Monbiot in the trashiest piece he’s ever written accuses the dead Robert Fisk of being a Lord HawHaw!!!

  8. I am not an expert but what I know is that after the first day of invasion I went to bed thinking that that was the last time I saw president Zelensky alive, that in the morning I would see Kiev in Russian hands and a new Putin friendly government installed. And I have been surprised every following morning since.
    The pictures of Ukraine today are so terrible, so sad. The more buildings and towns the Russians destroy, the more people they kill, the more hatred they will get.
    Whatever were the opinions about Ukraine before the invasion especially amongst the people of the post communist countries, they have changed, whatever sympathies Putin could have, he has lost all.

  9. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised.. the amount of sympathy for Russia in New Zealand, actual hatred for Ukraine. The Ukrainian president having a ‘ hissy fit’.
    Dear God in heaven what the hell is wrong with you people?

    When it suits you you’re out there bragging to the world about being the best, the most beautiful, the most creative, the most etc etc. Comes the Dark Cloud it’s “Nothing To Do With Me” …

    Back to ‘hissy fit”.

    Lesia Vasylenko, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament a courageous young women, who decided to stay at her post in the face of terrible odds. When she comments on lack of outside support for her country facing absolute annihilation, is she having a ‘hissy fit’?

    There is something about that Kiwi phrase that implies contempt and ridicule.. for brave people sacrificing all?

    So how about close to home. A Prime Minister who high-tails it under the relentless onslaught of a few comments from a single heckler…

    That’s what I call a hissy fit!

  10. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised.. the amount of sympathy for Russia in New Zealand, actual hatred for Ukraine. The Ukrainian president having a ‘ hissy fit’.
    Dear God in heaven what the hell is wrong with you people?

    When it suits you you’re out there bragging to the world about being the best, the most beautiful, the most creative, the most etc etc. Comes the Dark Cloud it’s “Nothing To Do With Me” …

    Back to ‘hissy fit”.

    Lesia Vasylenko, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament a courageous young women, who decided to stay at her post in the face of terrible odds. When she comments on lack of outside support for her country facing absolute annihilation, is she having a ‘hissy fit’?

    There is something about that Kiwi phrase that implies contempt and ridicule.. for brave people sacrificing all?

    So how about close to home. A Prime Minister who high-tails it under the relentless onslaught of a few comments from a single heckler…

    That’s what I call a hissy fit!

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