GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Russia still getting smashed at Bakhmut but next week, expect big changes!
This week it was tough to write this column, we are witnessing the destruction of Ukraine and Russia’s best soldiers in a bloody battle of attrition. A battle fought inch by inch over a destroyed city of little tactical value. On the Russian side, the forces driving this battle are political, it is not to secure a tactical advantage but rather political advantage within the ‘boys club’ that runs the Kremlin. Yevgeny Prigozhin and Sergei Shoigu, throwing away Russian soldier’s lives so that they can claim favour with their patron; Putin.
On the other side of the town, Ukraine continues to hold fast, destroying Wagner Group and Russian Airborne Forces some of Russia’s most experienced and well-trained soldiers. Yesterday, William Taylor an ex-United States Ambassador to Ukraine provided some useful commentary about the battle. He thought the reason that Ukraine remains committed to the battle is because Ukraine’s senior generals believe the battle is damaging Russia more that Ukraine. The generals are well-trusted by President Zelensky; and based on Taylor’s knowledge of the parties he is confident that the decision was sound. That by fighting for Bakhmut, Ukraine benefits by inflicting massive attrition of Russia’s best soldiers. This informed commentary correlates with, and supports many less informed assessments of the battle.
This is how militaries and their legislatures should operate, the elected legislature ‘governing’ and leaving military decision-making to their professional soldiers; and it is interesting to compare this model with Russia’s decision-making. Bakhmut is a battle fought with many men killed and wounded all for the bragging rights of ambitious politicians. Young men’s lives being wasted in this way is a tragedy; a tragedy that demonstrates why NATO is supporting Ukraine. That Putin’s kleptocracy is willing to throw away its own young people’s lives fighting a worthless battle, that contributes to Russia’s defeat all for the ego of a few powerful men is wrong. Does the world really want to let a free country like Ukraine fall under the power of a system like that?
The battle continues though, neither side giving ground and it seems likely that Russia is reaching culmination point in the area. We have credible reports of Russian ammunition shortages and issues with tactical coordination both of which correlate with assessments of the relationship between Wagner Group and the Russian Army. Essentially, Russia continues to squirm on the end of a spike its force being depleted in poorly planned and supported attacks.
Along, the remainder of the frontline there is activity, but it is limited. Small attacks and artillery shelling exchanges rather than the massed assaults (i.e. brigade or divisional strength attacks) we would expect to see if the Russian’s had any capacity left. Further, open-source intelligence is not showing any large concentrations of force that would indicate preparations for such an offensive. Instead, it seems that Russia has culminated and is desperately hanging on for one or more of the following situations to develop:
- Ukraine attacks and is defeated.
- Sergei Shoigu’s plan to expand the Russian military starts to create the offensive combat power that Russia currently lacks.
- Peace negotiations can be brought onto the table by China, stalling the war and providing time for Shoigu’s reforms to take place.
The situation is high-risk, in many commentators opinion Russia is likely to suffer a significant defeat when Ukraine switches to the offensive. A large scale defeat could make Shoigu’s reforms and expansion of the Russian Army a moot point, there is no point in having a million and half soldiers if Ukraine has taken back its territory. The most important risk relates to China’s role, and President Xi Jin Ping is visiting Putin next week.
It seems likely that with the increase in Sino-American tension this meeting will produce some interesting results. Speaking on Times Radio, Tobias Elwood, Chair of the United Kingdom’s Defence Select Committee highlighted the strategic risk to China of Russia being defeated. Recent Chinese diplomatic activity has focused on appealing to non-NATO aligned countries that are ambivalent about the Ukraine War, likely with the intention of building a new post-Ukraine world order based on a split between the ‘Western,’ pro-American liberal democracies and ‘the remainder’. This strategy is in action across the globe from Africa, to South America, the Indo-Pacific region, China presenting itself as an alternative to the United States.
If Russia is defeated and driven out of Ukraine, the political ramifications within the Russian Federation are potentially significant for China. Although, Putin has proven risky and incompetent, he could be described as the ‘devil you know’ and therefore someone that presents a lower risk than either; allowing a new strong man to take the Russian throne, or seeing the Russian Federation collapse. This is especially true if China ‘saves’ Putin, and Russia becomes essentially a vassal state committed to supporting China.
Therefore, it is likely that we will see dramatic strategic activity when Putin and Xi meet. It seems likely that China will seek to publicly position itself as a ‘peace-maker’ and so we should look out for the following:
- A peace plan that aims for an immediate ceasefire and discussions about resolving the conflict. This will provide Russia with breathing space; and may help to paint NATO and Ukraine as the aggressors, probably by establishing conditions in which any Ukrainian offensive can be used to demonstrate that neither NATO or Ukraine are reasonable (i.e. willing to let Russia keep what it captured) and interested in a peaceful solution. This will add to China’s ‘proxy war’ narrative about the Ukraine War; that the war is driven by the United States and its desire to defeat Russia rather than by any larger moral questions.
- A range of nuclear threats from Russia. China and India have demonstrably played a role toning down Putin’s rhetoric. However, at this point it may make sense, strategically for China to allow more Russian threats of nuclear escalation in order to reinforce NATO fears of escalation and help convince the alliance to force Ukraine to sit down at China’s bargaining table.
- China, will likely work out a plan to support Russia more, by evading sanctions and providing military equipment and supplies. It may be public or it may be covert depending on how aggressive China wants to be. Support like this boost Russia’s military capacity and mean that a longer war becomes more likely. Making the war longer is another way of threatening NATO and trying to influence the alliance to ‘lean on’ Ukraine and force them to negotiate.
So next week will be a big week in the war, this diplomatic activity will be tough for Ukraine to counter; and in my opinion the only way that Ukraine can ‘win’ this strategic battle is on the battlefield. If Ukraine can; then next week is the time to launch its offensive. If Ukraine can take back land quickly and demonstrate the real weakness of Russia, then the strategy outlined above starts to crumble. It is hard to negotiate a ceasefire line when one side is collapsing; and realistically negotiation is only likely to happen when the front is stable. So it is in Ukraine’s best interest to make sure that the front is not stable during Xi’s visit. Further, it undermines any larger Chinese strategic goal to position Russia and China as joint-leaders of an alliance against the United States and its ‘Western’ allies. When one of the key players (Russia) is incompetent, and being defeated it is unlikely that other nations are going to fall in behind a developing international power bloc.
Then late in the week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) decided to indict Putin as a war criminal. I honestly don’t know how this situation will develop; commentators are very mixed about the possible impact. Personally, I think that Putin is unlikely to care. However, this move may influence the situation in the following ways:
- It seems most likely that it will harden Putin’s attitude because he knows that if he loses now, then he is likely to end his life in a European prison. Even if he survives the war, he will live the remainder of his life knowing that any future Russian government may hand him over to the ICC. Further, his ability travel is severely limited by the ruling.
- Some commentators like Bill Browder, an American businessman who lived in Russia and knows Putin; think that although the indictment will not worry Putin, it will scare those around him who now need to face the prospect of being indicted as well. Browder felt that it could undermine Putin’s power within the Kremlin.
- It also seems likely that these action will not ‘play well’ with the countries that see the war in Ukraine as an American or NATO proxy war. Many countries will see the ICC’s decision as vindication of China and Russia’s position because it appears to be America and the West’s liberal democracies working together to oppress another nation that is ‘not in the club’.
The heads of numerous regimes have been indicted for war crimes and in some cases, it has limited their activities forcing them to consider their actions more. However, we have never seen the head of a country as large and influential as Russia indicted, and how this situation influences the wider strategic discussion will be worth watching.
In summary, on the battlefield Russia is culminating its best forces being slaughtered at Bakhmut with no real prospect of developing any kind of war winning offensive this year. Perhaps next year, Shoigu’s reforms will create an army able to conquer Ukraine, but this seems unlikely. Right now, Sino-American tension is high and China may take the opportunity to use the Ukraine War to position itself in the post-war world. This will probably impact significantly, Russia getting more support allowing it to prolong the war, unless Ukraine is able to move quickly on the battlefield. So, we may see a Ukrainian offensive in the next few weeks. And; at this stage in the war, it is likely that across NATO, politicians and diplomats are reconsidering their strategy and learning some lessons because perhaps if Ukraine had more support earlier, the strategic outlook would be different and less dangerous.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
“Ukrainian ceasefire unacceptable” White House…. Enough said.
Essential weekly reading.
As has been mentioned before, once you flip the script of what’s been written here, then it becomes a lot more truthful.
Nonetheless, what is happening now, especially around Bakhmut, is sad, so incredibly sad.
Peace, the world desires peace, the polical class however, they have other ideas!
Peace
Amen to all that.
Soon Ben will quietly withdraw back into the heart of the SIS until l he is next required, under some other pseudonym, to give us another of their truths
My thoughts exactly.
Thanks for the commentary once again Ben.
From a tactical perspective, it pays the Ukraine to fix the battle in Bakhmut. The town is in a shallow valley with a river running down the middle. To the right of the river, where the Russians are, there are previously demolished residential buildings and to the left where the Ukrainians are dug in, there are more substantial concrete apartment and office blocks. On each side of the river there is a strip of open ground which is a marshy flood plain. So, the Ukrainians have several advantages: They have better cover, they have high vantage points for sniping and observation and lastly the Russians have to advance unsupported over wet open ground in order to engage their enemy. Yet they persist in doing this, losing thousands of men trying. The Russians maybe haven’t read Sun-tzu’s ‘The Art of War’ – do not reinforce failure! More and more I get the impression that the Russians have shot their bolt and the Ukrainians are just waiting for the ground to dry out some, then they will attack. Late April?
Ignored by media (because they’re useless), the Ukraine has successfully field tested a JDAM glide bomb by launching it from a MiG 29. That is a tactical game-changer. These cost a fraction of the price of a HIMARS or GLSDB and the US has the capacity to deliver tens of thousands of these in short order. They can deliver massive bombs up to 2000lb up to 80km behind the Russian lines with pinpoint accuracy without the MiG ever having to expose itself to enemy SAMs. Their guidance systems cannot be jammed because they use terrain mapping as well as GPS. This development makes the need for F16s far less critical for a victory. Both planes are of the same vintage and the MiGs coming from Poland will likely have western avionics and ECM equipment.
Zelensky will never give in. His side is going to kick my ass!
My side must keep telling BS!
Almost one month into spring now and still no Ukrainian offensives at Bakhmut or Melitopol just alot of destroyed vehicles with nothing to show for it.
Antforce, you seem very pro China and pro Russia. I fully support your right to have such views (NZ allows for free speech after all unlike those countries which you obviously support).
Can i please ask though
1. Which country do you actually live in?
2. (Assuming you don’t live there already), would you really prefer to live in Russia/ China or a western country?
Look at the picture that accompanies the other articles that Ben does – the one where China is completely surrounded by sea by the US.
If Russia falls then the US can break it up and/or put compliant leaders in place. And then cut off all food and fuel to China. That will happen *after* they tell Taiwan to claim independence and China invades.
So it won’t happen. China will step in to protect their interests. Not Russia’s, but theirs.
It won’t be the US who breaks Russia up. China can easily overwhelm Russia in the far east with weight of numbers. Already Vladivostok, where my father was born, has a large Chinese presence. This coupled with low Russian birth rates and low life expectancy, Siberia might become Chinese in the long term!
An exhausted Russian Federation has fought itself to the verge of a standstill and is on the brink of a unilateral end to the fighting.
To not lose all they have gained through invasion and aggression…,
– to avoid a complete devastating rout…,
– to not be harried all the way back to their border by a victorious Ukrainian army…,
– to maintain their position
– the Russians are calling on China to to step into the role of World policeman.
The question remains: What will this mean in practice?
If Ukraine ignores the unilateral Russian ceasefire…,
– if Ukraine continues pressing its advantage on the battlefield….,
– if Ukraine launches its long planned Northern Spring offensive to take back Crimea…,
– will Xi order a Chinese self titled ‘Peace Keeping Force’ to Ukraine?
What are the implications for future imperialist conflicts and rivalry around the world?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/geopolitical-rumblings-leave-us-behind.html
“Over the last month we have seen astonishing geopolitical developments.
In February China publicly lambasted U.S. hegemony, launched a global security initiative and offered a peace plan for Ukraine.
On March 10 China mediated an agreement which restored relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
On March 15 Moscow rolled out the red carpet for the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Yesterday al-Assad and his wife Asma arrived in the UAE for talks with Sheikh Mohammed
Also yesterday Iran and Iraq signed a security cooperation agreement that will stop the CIA sponsored Kurdish activities against Iran.
Also yesterday King Salman of Saudi Arabia invited the President of Iran to a visit in Riyadh.
For the last 30 years the U.S. considered the Middle East as its backyard. Twenty years ago it illegally invaded Iraq and caused 100,000nds of death and decades of chaos. Now China, by peaceful means, changed the balance in the Middle East within just one month.
Today China’s President Xi arrived in Moscow for three days of talks with Russia’s President Putin. An article by President Putin was published in the People’s Daily while Russian media published a signed article by President Xi.
The U.S. is afraid that China’s peace initiative for Ukraine will gain ground. It has openly come out against a cease-fire and peace talks. I had thought that was for Ukraine to decide?
It is likely that Putin will publicly endorse the Chinese peace plan while the U.S. is paranoid that peace might indeed happen. It may even want to sabotage the Saudi Iranian deal.
China’s people are by the way the most happy in the world.
Xi and Putin are now running the multilateral global show. Biden and the hapless ‘unilateral’ people around him are left aside.”
Of course the big omission is that our Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta is visiting China! I wonder if the Chinese will politely explain to her why China supports Russia in the Ukraine and why China hopes NZ has a clear understanding of the situation.
Who are the happiest people 2023?
Finland took the top spot for the sixth year in a row in 2023, followed by Denmark and Iceland. But why are they so consistently happy? Some say it’s because they are small, homogenous, and wealthy. Several years ago, a research paper even suggested it was because they are genetically bound to be happier.2 days ago
Bomber,
I’m sure you’ve got better things to be doing but I’m deeply curious where some of these comments are authored. I’m sure Russia have better places to invest in psyops than NZ but you never know. I’m sure you’d be tickled pink to know that the FSB were mucking with your blog 😉
BTW another great post Ben, Spring ain’t a good time to be doing much of anything in Ukraine….mud, mud and more mud!
Well said Upside Down.
They could be from the Russian Embassy or Pirozhgin’s troll farm in St Petersburg. It’s possible though they are from the lunatic fringe of alt right conspiracy theorists and feral protesters in this country.
Good stuff Upside, is it paranoia, or
are you on the SIS payroll? Just asking because there’s something very fishy about you.
Nah…they couldn’t afford me.
Yeah, long time between sales then.
“I’m sure Russia have better places to invest in psyops than NZ but you never know.” UpsideDown
Yeah you never know. Russian Federation sysops invests $millions on its “Team G” bot farms and troll armies, giving it capacity to spare, enough, even for little New Zealand
From Wikipedia
…..investigations were performed by Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta and Institute of Modern Russia in 2014–15, inspired by the peak of activity of the pro-Russian brigades during the Russo-Ukrainian War and assassination of Boris Nemtsov.[25][26][27][28] The effort of using “troll armies” to promote Putin’s policies is reported to be a multimillion-dollar operation.[29] According to an investigation by the British Guardian newspaper, the flood of pro-Russian comments is part of a coordinated “informational-psychological war operation”.[30] One Twitter bot network was documented to use more than 20,500 fake Twitter accounts to spam negative comments after the death of Boris Nemtsov and events related to the Ukrainian conflict.[31][32]
An article based on the original Polyanskaya article, authored by the Independent Customers’ Association, was published in May 2008 at Expertiza.Ru. In this article the term web brigades is replaced by the term Team “G”.[33][34]
But they needn’t have bothered, there are lots of useful idiots, who will parrot the same bullshit for nothing.
During his presidency, Donald Trump retweeted a tweet by a fake account operated by Russians. In 2017, he was among almost 40 celebrities and politicians, along with over 3,000 global news outlets, identified to have inadvertently shared content from Russian troll-farm accounts.[35]
Good point Pat. One thing I have noticed is the tendency of these people to quote Putin. For example Nick J frequently alleges that ‘NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian’. He tried to tell us that he doesn’t support Putin and yet he quotes him verbatim! We are not fooled.
Good read, Ben! Thank you for your cogent and cautious observations. Of course, always sad to see others drawing fire from the soon-to-be unemployed Putinpedorrazzi! My profuse condolences and, simultaneously, congratulations! Give these Putinpedo Trolls ulcers.
Very rarely do posters use their real name at TDB for privacy reasons but of course the usual poster boys for the West use that to imply than any differing opinion must be Putinist supporters or paid posters. So much for free speech and differing opinions, whats next? any criticism of Israel and we are antisemitic?
People genuinely concerned about the SMO certainly don’t waste their time on Ben’s analysis which personally i rate 2/10.
One could genuinely argue that posters like Pat and Gadfly who consistently post comments that support the narrow MSM view are in fact the true enemy’s of truth.
I think Pat and Gadfly should go find a room – they deserve each other!
How unusually cruel that could be.
Seer, your source on the Maidan was seriously compromised. Do you honestly believe this account?
I am ordering a book: Maidan, The Untold Story by Sonya Koroshkin which is the most thorough account available on the affair. It is only written in Russian.
The history of the Donbas is similar -there is no evidence of the so-called genocide that Putin and his supporters claim. These claims have been found to be false by the OSCE. Furthermore accusations of anti-semitism and anti-Romani activities have been made against the separatists in the Donbas and Crimea. There are Nazis in Ukraine but the majority of them are in the Donbas on the Russian side!
For further reading I would suggest: Taras Kuzio and Timothy Snyder.
Narrow view? What an ignorant comment. Than again ignorance is your modus operandi Finngrin.
We are postulating the wide view of the conflict – which is a war.
Your very use of the Putinist term ‘Special Military Operation’ proclaims you as a Putin supporter and yours is the narrow view. You are only dependent on a narrow range of sources which are often not properly verified. Verification is a feature of the MSM which you so detest. You are in the minority Finngrin.
Ok Gadfly – correct English shows quality of thought?? Look at your above comment.
‘Than again’… Well done, Mr Mastery of the English language!
“You are only dependent on a narrow range of sources” Classic misplacement of the adverb ‘only’ by misguided fools who think they have mastered English.
Your quality of thought is now thoroughly undermined in advance. Read on, readers.
It is conversational speech not an essay Vino. When was your English grammar book written? 1900?
And I don’t make spelling mistakes. Unlike Putin’s Parrots.
Finngrin – It is spelt enemies not enemy’s. Your inability to spellcheck correctly casts doubt on the points you are trying to make.
Relying on MSM with its “anonymous” sources is a fools game Gadfly. Whoop de doo I made a spelling mistake, if that’s all you have got it’s more a reflection of your narrow childish thinking than my education.
As for SMO, by all legal definitions that is what it is, i refuse to subscribe to the Western mislabeling of war which has not been declared. Sheep like to be led.
And it’s fingrinn NOT Fingrinn hypocrite.
A fool’s game is it Finngrin? You are demonstrating that you are the fool. Spelling and grammatical mistakes betray the thinking of the writer. It devalues any discussion points the writer attempts to make. This is how all academic papers are marked. Careless editing suggests careless thinking. If you don’t like the Western definition of a Ukrainian war then why don’t you Nick J, Antforce62, and the other 5th columnists go and join your friend Putin.
PHUD, Did i upset you? Better reading would be The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: Revelations in Trials and Investigation by
Ivan Katchanovski from the University of Ottawa. Free PDF download of the truth. Plebeian.
I have read that paper and it is basically a conspiracy theory written by a compromised academic from a lowly ranked university.
I call B/S on that Gadfly because if you had actually read it you would understand that all his evidence was open source.
I have read it Finngrin. It is a poorly written paper that alleges that Maidan protesters were shot by far right extremists. But it ignores the role of FSB assassins and other actors such as Medvedchuk – Putin’s proxy – it doesn’t even mention them! Medvedchuk made a large number of phone calls to Yanukovych at the time.Sound academic papers should cover a thesis and an antithesis and reach a synthetic conclusion. Instead Katchanovski posits a research question which ignores many parameters which should be considered in the interest of balance. It is not a proper research paper – it is a polemic – an opinion piece.
Katchanovski’s poorly written paper merely confirms your conspiracy led world view and you haven’t read Koroshkina’s book so how the hell would you know finngrin?
Ignoramus
Gadfly Previous post: “I am ORDERING a book by Koroshkin” apparently Gadfly has already read it and is now an expert.
A fool’s game is it Finngrin? You are demonstrating that you are the fool. Spelling and grammatical mistakes betray the thinking of the writer. It devalues any discussion points the writer attempts to make. This is how all academic papers are marked. Careless editing suggests careless thinking. If you don’t like the Western definition of a Ukrainian war then why don’t you Nick J, Antforce62, and the other 5th columnists go and join your friend Putin.
PhuD, 5th columnist for US based neocon hegemonists. Echoer of Straussian proto fascist anti democratic viewpoint that some self selected individual opinion counts for more than others.
Well done PhuD.
I don’t support fascist dictators like Putin and you do! Timothy Snyder’s term schizofascist applies to you.
And it is not neo-con to support Ukraine. Are you calling the EU, UK, Australia, New Zealand neo-cons then? Meaningless labelling.
You have such a conspiratorial mindset Nick J.
Nick J you are a contrarian idiot with a chip on your shoulder – like your fellow malcontent Finngrin.
PhuD, you started throwing the epithet “5th columnist”, I merely turned it your way. Fool.