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  1. RT is fantasizing about the capture of Kiev and the Government of Ukraine fleeing their capital in a mad scramble, much as American occupation forces fled from Kabul and Saigon.

    No doubt in the same vein all the little anonymous micro-goebbels will soon be infesting this site claiming an imminent Ukrainian collapse and Russian victory.

    “….. how will Russia respond to another large defeat?”

    .

    When reality clashes with fantasy

    Probably with total collapse

    1. I forgot to supply the link to RT publication of Vladimir Putin’s wet dream imagining the Ukraine government desperately fleeing Kiev, like the US fled Kabul before the triumphant Taliban.

      Here it is:

      https://www.rt.com/news/572642-abandoned-puppets-us-afghan/

      What Ukraine could learn from a new report about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

      “The American exit from Kabul might be taste of the future for officials in Kiev” RT

  2. Meanwhile, on planet earth:

    – Data from the European Commission, quoted by El Pais, says that Russia has a 10:1 advantage in artillery:

    According to data from the European Commission to which EL PAÍS has had access, Russia fires between 40,000 and 50,000 artillery shells per day, compared to 5,000-6,000 Ukrainian forces expend. The Estonian government, which has been one of largest contributors to Kyiv’s war effort, puts the average use of artillery at between 20,000 and 60,000 Russian shells per day, and 2,000 to 7,000 Ukrainian rounds, according to a document sent to EU Member States by Tallinn, to which this newspaper has had access.

    The Russian forces fire ten times the number of shells the Ukrainians can fire. In a modern war artillery fire causes 65+% of all casualties. It is thus impossible that Ukraine is losing less soldiers than the Russians.

    The total ratio may well be 7 to 1 but it will certainly be to the advantage of the Russian forces side. –

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/ukraine-is-lying-about-casualty-ratios-to-justify-holding-of-bakhmut.html#more

    1. No, it is not impossible that Russia is losing more men than Ukraine.
      First point, the Russians are on the offence, therefore they are in the open or in AFV’s. Horribly exposed to Ukrainian fire.
      Second point, the Ukrainians are fighting defensively from dug in positions. A direct hit on the trench is required to kill soldiers, which is hard to do with artillery.
      Third point, the Ukrainians have a lot more smart munitions for their guns, now increasingly 155 mm western guns. That means far fewer shells are required to achieve the desired effect. In contrast the Russians are using “dumb” shells, just as in WW2. Basically these are area weapons, not precise weapons.
      Fourth point, just about everyone, including Russian Bloggers, state that the Russians are not fighting in a tactically smart way, in large part due to Russian military doctrine and training. In contrast the Ukrainians are fighting in a more flexible way, having had lots of NATO training, from militaries with deep battlefield knowledge.
      Fifth point, the Ukrainians will have superior battle field intelligence due to the supply of NATO intelligence from satellites and SIGINT. The US satellites are exceptionally powerful, with Hubble sized cameras. Even at 160km up they will be able to photograph individual soldiers.

      1. All those references to NATO.
        Isn’t NATO a defensive alliance?
        Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
        Why is NATO involved?

        1. I know your comments are essentially rhetorical but I thought I would provide an answer anyway.

          Why is NATO involved?

          Because Ukraine asked for their help. As you well know, no NATO forces are actually in Ukraine. Though I do accept that all the intelligence support from NATO makes them a bit more engaged than simply supplying arms. However, the intelligence is all done outside of Ukraine through satellites and NATO Signet stations in Poland.

          From the perspective of the West/NATO the invasion was a Russian overreach right on the NATO border. It is one thing for Russia to invade the nations of the Caucasus, it is quite another to do it to a nation that quite clearly was coming within the western orbit, as part of contemporary eastern Europe.

          Ukraine has preferred the attractions of the EU far more than those of Russia. Russia thought otherwise and that a quick in and out intervention would solve all their problems. Which proved to be a gross miscalculation on Russia’s part.

        2. Because the NATO aligned countries in eastern Europe and the Baltic states know if Ukraine falls those small Baltic states will be next even Finland and Sweden that has been occupied by Russia in the past know what Putin wants the recreation of the Russian empire..

        3. That’s just it Blazer, NATO is at war with Russia.
          Wayne is incorrect about what is happening on the battlefield, except for the bit about battlefield intelligence where the NATO space based systems provide a massive advantage. Even to that there are work arounds, for example if this went to a full on NATO v Russia or China the satellite systems would be taken down leaving both sides blind.
          read https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/all-seeing-eye-can-russia-break-through
          Wayne, sift through the rest of simplicius to find out what is actually going on.

          1. I’d trust Wayne‘s analyses over yours any day Nick J. I know his credentials. What are yours?

          2. The answer Nick J is you have no credentials and can’t recognise when people more expert than you, such as Ben and Wayne, have a better grip on Ukraine than you do. When you are out manoeuvred you resort to abuse.
            Pathetic!

          3. PhuD, the man who claims expertise and superior knowledge. Based on zip. Well done.

          4. Yes Lord Haw Haw. More abuse. I think you have a senility problem and critical thinking is not possible with you. You are not able to assess Ben, Wayne or my contributions in a balanced way at all. I would suggest you read Bill Browder’s two books and also Serhii Plokhy’s take on the Ukrainian war. Perhaps you can prove that you are not ruled by confirmation bias and conspiracy theories!

        4. Nato isn’t involved – get that out of your head.

          Countries that are a part of NATO are involved only in a matter of supplying weapons and financial aid.

          The weapons they give are NATO weapons because they’re used by NATO countries.
          They’re not NATO weapons because they are not owned by NATO.

          If NATO would get involved the Russians would all be gone from Ukraine allready.

          Nato is an organization with which you cannot be in war with.

          You can be in war with a country, a defensive alliance’s members. Not the organization itself.

          The reason nato aligned countries support Ukraine is because they see Russia as a threat to their own sovereignty, their own economy, they don’t condone an aggressive invasion of a neighboring country and because Russia took down a civilian plane with largest part of people on it were from my country.

          I cannot fathom that you guys in NZ have so many pro Russian shills, I always thought NZ a well thinking liberal and friendly country, only so short ago uproared by a shocking and terribly violent attack by one lunatic with a gun that so many of you would condone a large scale attack like that on entirety of Ukraine is BAFFLING to me and you should be ashamed!

    2. When the Vietnam war was going on, I can remember watching TV. Jet after jet was leaving a gigantic American aircraft carrier to bomb Vietnam, and thinking to myself, ‘How on Earth can the Vietnamese people ever possibly beat such overwhelming military force?’

      The flailing about of a gigantic monster

      Paul March 13, 2023 at 6:27 am

      Meanwhile, on planet earth:

      Data from the European Commission, quoted by El Pais, says that Russia has a 10:1 advantage in artillery….

      ….Russia fires between 40,000 and 50,000 artillery shells per day, compared to 5,000-6,000 Ukrainian forces expend.

      …..The Russian forces fire ten times the number of shells the Ukrainians can fire….

      ….. It is thus impossible that Ukraine is losing less soldiers than the Russians….

      In the Vietnam war 65 thousand US troops were killed, to an estimated 1 million NVA soldiers and 2 million Vietnamese civilians.

      The American were so sure that their huge advantage in killing power would win them this war, that they notoriously published a regular body count of Vietcong killed.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_body_count_controversy

      Realising that they were in a losing war against an insurgent population the Americans resorted to mass aerial bombardment of Vietnamese civilian infrastructure, with the stated aim of breaking the Vietnamese people’s will to fight.

      Sound familiar?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Rolling_Thunder

      The result in Vietnam as it has been in Ukraine is the same. It has hardened the people’s will to fight back against the invader.

      I don’t know what planet you are on Paul, but it is not planet Earth.

      1. Pat, the Russians are the Viet Cong in this scenario. The Ukrainians are the SVA. Just radicalised with soviet era hate and US money.

        Even if you don’t agree I suggest you read all events with this model in mind to balance your prejudice.

        1. Paul March 13, 2023 at 10:04 pm

          Pat, the Russians are the Viet Cong in this scenario.

          How the Russians are so not the Viet Cong:

          Let me count some of the ways

          #1 The Russians invaded Ukraine.
          The Vietcong did not invade America.

          #2 The Russians have conducted an aerial bombardment of Ukraine civilian infrastructure.
          The Vietcong didn’t conduct an aerial bombardment of US civilian infrastructure

          #3 The Russians are not fighting on their land.
          The Vietcong were fighting on their land

          #4 The Russians use mercenaries (The Wagner Group)
          The Vietcong didn’t use mercenaries

          #5 The Russians fire missiles into Ukrainian apartment buildings.
          The Vietcong didn’t fire missiles into American apartment buildings.

          #6 The Russians are taking Ukrainian children to Russia.
          The Vietcong never took American children to Vietnam.

      2. Also, my point was about the flipped ratios of Ukrainian v Russian dead in the Western propaganda narrative. Your parable is irrelevant.

        1. Backtracking much. You wrote that the Russian imperialists are the Vietcong in this scenario. A claim so ludicrous that it displays a total disconnect from reality.

          “Pat, the Russians are the Viet Cong in this scenario.”

          Talking of flipped ratios;

          #7 Russia is a much bigger country than Ukraine.
          America is a much bigger country than Vietnam.

          Everything that makes Russia not like the Vietcong, makes Ukraine like the Vietcong.
          Which is why Russia will be defeated and expelled from all Ukrainian territory.

    3. The amount of artillery each side possesses has become less relevant than the amount of shells each side can produce to actually use. It’s clear from the arguments between Wagner and the Russian MOD that the number of guns Russia has cannot be utilised for a lack of ammunition for them, which is why artillery intensity from the start of the war has dropped 75%.

    4. Moon of Alabama- another fake news site. You show your ignorance by quoting them!

  3. “Then the question is how will Russia respond to another large defeat?”

    And this is the whole point of this propaganda angle from the Western cabal. To make a false flag seem like the “only” way Russia wins, which it will; or potential “outrageous” Russian nuclear strike being the reason, instead of merely being the telegraphed response to the Nato mafia crossing the clear redlines of Russian security over and over again.

    1. It seems the line never changes no matter how many defeats Russia receives. Kyiv offensive failed, good will gesture, any idea this means Russia is struggling in the conflict is propaganda. Kharkiv is liberated, doesn’t matter Russia will win in the end. Lyman is liberated, don’t worry western propaganda won’t stop the swarm of Russia’s mobilisation. Kherson is liberated, don’t worry Wagner is about to win the war by taking the town of Bakhmut, somehow. Now the Bakhmut offensive is culminating and whether Wagner take the town or not, Russia’s strategic capabilities are at this stage too eroded to ever hope to take Donbas. I’ve seen propagandists call this “Russia winning too slowly”. The delusion never ends.

      What is the next cope? Steiner’s counter attack will break the encirclement of Mariupol?

  4. Soon your much vaunted Spring Offensive will be passed over to the Summer and i will be left wondering if the NZ Herald is more accurate with their predictions.

  5. Thanks for the update Ben.

    A key advantage in Bakhmut you didn’t mention is that the Ukraine’s side of the river is mostly concrete apartment blocks and offices whereas the Russian side is mostly residential single storey buildings. This gives the Ukraine soldiers better protection against incoming fire and elevated positions for observation and sniping.

    A British intelligence official estimated the kill ratio 7:1 in favour of the Ukraine, and the situation is even worse for the Russian because they often are seen leaving their wounded to die.

  6. Meanwhile the President of Georgia is safely tucked away safely in the US calling on the protesters to continue demands for the Government to resign, YEP, you read that right! the elected President calling for her own government to fall, color Revolution US style, time to open up that 2nd front against Russia. Unconfirmed reports are coming out the “Ukrainian Legionnaires” are stirring up conflict in Georgia.

    Over 1 Million took to the streets in France over the weekend protesting pension reforms with widespread rioting, 370,000 hard core protesters showed up the next day to be greeted with police brutality, tear gas and water canons, not a Western parrot squawked about their “Freedom to protest” I’m guessing “freedom and democracy” doesn’t apply to Western country’s now. So far LNG terminals are at a standstill, rail is barely running and oil refineries are on strike throw in the estimated 4,500 tons of garbage uncollected on the streets of Paris due to strikes and residents are fearful of the famous Parisian rats coming to the surface which is estimated to number 2/1. Meanwhile Marcon is busy in Africa pleading with them to not reject their Colonialism and allow them to rename their Military bases as “Schools” all the while flooding social media of himself partying up on Champagne drunk. The Guillotines are being readied and freshly oiled.

    The Netherlands will have to be followed closely as an estimated 100,000 farmers are expected to pour onto the streets as well as with an estimated 5,000 tractors, their masters are demanding a complete ban on nitrates for the agriculture industry, the Government of course has pledged the Military to “Keep the people safe”

    Victor Orban of Hungary is officially making the early call we are on the precipice of WW3 and are at tipping point and the lemmings suck up graffiti from bored generation x “bloggers”

    The Pope has been sent to the naughty corner by Nicaragua for comparing President Ortega’s government to a “Communist or Nazi dictatorship”
    It’s a strange, strange world.

    The new alliance between Iraq and Saudi Arabia bears good and rotten fruit. Expect the war in Yemen to wind down with the Houthis no longer attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries. Israel unfortunately gets the rotten fruit depending on your political leanings, regional stability has been grossly undermined and the political sharks are circling in the water. Look for another Israeli Government to collapse, of concern is if Israel decides to mow the lawn again.

    So far 3 major US banks have collapsed so far, one the 3rd biggest in US history Two out of three Americans live week to week and American poverty is escalating. A tinderbox waiting for the match.

    As i said its a strange, strange world. I do know enough to confidently believe we are indeed on the precipice and War is coming I have believed that since COVID and here’s the reason Why. During times of Worldwide unrest, poverty and inequality we always reach the same conclusion, war is the answer. War is the culling of Homo Sapiens enabled by the ones we vote for and War is for profit, simply put War is Mans greatest weakness, and greatest challenge.

    1. I wouldn’t believe anything that Viktor Orban said!
      Putin started the war and he would have to be deposed before peace is guaranteed between Russia and Ukraine.

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