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  1. The simple question to ask the peace movement is what will their reaction be when 300 Chinese fishing boats turn up to harvest New Zealand waters?

    As is happening in South America;

    https://hongkongfp.com/2022/03/12/how-chinas-fishing-fleet-is-devastating-ecosystems-harming-poor-countries-and-contributing-to-conflict/

    Will the Greens advocate for higher military spending to protect the dolphins? How will New Zealand stop the rape of the oceans by Chinese fisherman?

    Not a coincidence that China is strengthening is hold over the South Pacific. It’s need for all types of fish is growing by 6% per year. It has to be raped from somewhere!

    South Pacific and the Southern Ocean south of New Zealand is next.

    And if China’s uses military assets to protect the fishing fleet, where is the ability of New Zealand to join Australia and South American countries to prevent to collapse of the fishing stocks in the South Pacific and Southern Oceans?

    Krill fishing is but the latest of eco damaging fisheries practiced in the Southern Ocean. Not just by China but others like Russia, South Korea, Norway, Ukraine and Chile. I guess when the krill are gone so will the fish (and whales). Oh well the peace lovers will be happy for New Zealand defended the krill (and the penguins) with nothing and now nothing will be left. But we will be at peace with that.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/antarctica-does-burgeoning-krill-fishery-threaten-wildlife-2022-02-24/

    “In October, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources will consider revising catch limits and trawling zones, due to conservation concerns. It declined to give details of the proposed changes. Approval requires a consensus vote by all 26 commission members.

    Scientists fear some nations may object to stricter measures. Beijing and Moscow have been notable opponents of efforts to establish Marine Protected Areas in the region.

    The Russian state fishing agency, noting the “impressive” krill stocks in the region, said any changes would have to be “clearly justified” by scientific evidence. “There are not many areas open to fishing.””

  2. I have been looking at the Budget documents over the last week. They do require a fair bit of analysis. It looks like the capital expenditure appears twice, once in the Defence Force Vote and once in the Defence (MOD) vote. However, it would seem to be the same money, which effectively is transferred from one vote to the other. To do this require a formal appropriation. The money is being used to pay for the new C130J Hercules, and for the final payment of the new P8 Poseidon, which are being delivered later this year.

    If the total spend was actually over $6 billion, it would mean New Zealand’s defence expenditure will have increased in just one year by one third from 1.5% of GDP to 2.0% of GDP. I know enough about this subject to know that is simply not the case (and neither has the Minister said defence expenditure is now 2% of GDP) notwithstanding the extra capital required to purchase the new aircraft.

    I might note the new aircraft simply replace the existing aircraft, which are nearly 60 years old, though have had substantial upgrades, the last being ten years ago. It is a one for one replacement of the Hercules, and reduction of the maritime surveillance fleet from the current six P3’s to four P8’s.

  3. Ben, you are spiritually an Old Cold Warrior. Basically your world view can be summed up as Russia / China autocratic bad, UK / USA good guys. Luckily for your argument NZ population and politicians probably agree with that stance.

    Myself I believe in armed non aligned neutrality which may actually cost more. We need to be able to provide sufficient deterence locally to make it unattractive to challenge our shores and sea lanes.

    Your comment on moral authority is such a throwback to King and Empire imperialism. If you took notice of who objected to Russias actions in Ukraine it was only NATO nations, the so called “International Community”. South America, Asia, Africa would regard us as imperial lapdogs. They are our trading future. Clever positioning not.

  4. What absolute crap. We need to drive all American scum out of New Zealand and keep them out of our waters. If we don’t want Chinese fishermen in the waters around us, no problem- make a deal where we host DF-21’s to shoot at Australian and American scum, and they keep the fishing vessels away.

    1. Yup. It seems Ben is doing a Ukraine and declaring end of operations on reporting on that war and advancing triumphantly in a backward direction to offer cold-war era analysis on NZ, US, and China.

  5. From a Russian –

    https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1114122“Putin is about to win a shocking victory.”

     29.5K 13:43 – 29/may/22 genby

    The British newspaper Telegraph writes:
    February 24. “Putin’s bloody rule has come to an end.”
    April 3. “Russia is losing to the West in its own game.”
    April 21. “Putin’s war failed, but it could have been worse.”
    May 5. “Humiliated Russia is losing an epochal battle.”
    May 12. “Defeating Putin will cost us a high price.”
    May 26. “Putin is about to win a shocking victory.”

    When I read this, I thought it was a fictional imitation of Napoleonic editorials, taken from the book by Academician Tarlet.
    The first news: “The Corsican monster has landed in the Bay of João.”
    The second news: “The man-eater is coming to Grasse.”
    The third news: “The usurper has entered Grenoble.”
    The fourth news: “Bonaparte has occupied Lyon.”
    The fifth news: “Napoleon is approaching Fontenaebleau.”
    The sixth news: “His Imperial Majesty is expected today in his faithful Paris.”

    But no, everything turned out to be true, and all the headlines are taken from a column by Con Coughlin, the Telegraph’s defense editor and chief foreign affairs columnist. Not only that, all titles can be collected from one page. It is perfectly clear how the thinking of the Western man in the street is changing.

  6. I had a quick look back at Bens analysis, not good. The Russians appear to be winning hands down, minimising their casualties whilst systematically destroying Ukraines army. Zhelensky meanwhile is sounding a bit like that other madman in a bunker trying to convince himself and us that black is white. It is time for Ukraine to sue for peace whilst it still exists and to stop the slaughter of their troops.

    1. I have been following Ben’s analysis on Ukraine as well. Actually he has been pretty accurate. He predicted that when Russian retreated to the Donbas they would do OK. Hold onto their existing territory and make gains, especially in the pockets. For instance Russia’s likely success in taking Severodonetsk. But crossing major rivers seems very fraught.

      As I have noted previously, the Ukraine war will decided in two or three months with the Ukrainian offensive over the land bridge.

      I anticipate serious negotiations in the northern winter.

      Russia will certainly gain territory, notably the Donbas, but their overall aim of humbling Ukraine and splitting the West is likely to be judged as a failure. People in Russia, and the senior leadership around Putin, will ask the question as to whether gaining the Donbas, and perhaps a land bridge from Crimea to the Donbas was worth the 50,000 Russian deaths (the likely number by the end of 2022) plus of course Russia’s isolation from the West. This, to a significant extent, will last for some time after a peace settlement.

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