GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Putin backs off, plays smarter and is more dangerous!
Putin spent last week in damage control mode. International news media, breathlessly covered the three-day barrage of cruise missiles and drones launched against Ukraine in revenge for the Kerch Bridge attack. Around the world, news anchors and commentators recounted the attacks but few looked beyond the obvious brutality and sought to understand what the attacks tell us about Putin and his plans. Putin’s bombardment of civilian targets across Ukraine caused a great deal of suffering; but is an acknowledgement that all is not well within Russia.
First, the strikes are not really an escalation from NATO or Ukraine’s perspective. Sir Jeremy Fleming, the United Kingdom’s intelligence chief summed up the reality of this situation while answering a question during a rare public speech at the Royal United Services Institute; stating that the attacks are “not an escalation in terms of the types of weapons being used or the extent to which those weapons are bounded within that conflict”. Essentially, Putin is using conventional weapons in ways that we have come to expect from Russia in this war; as many other commentators pointed out attacks of this nature on civilians are not new, in fact they are now a defining feature of Russian military doctrine; from Chechnya to Syria we have seen callous attacks on civilians.
We know that the Russia’s supply of military hardware is dwindling especially it’s stocks of high-tech precision guided weapons. The barrage of missile attacks depleted Russia’s limited resources with no military gain. History has proven many times that terrorising civilians does not shake a nation’s will to fight. In fact, more often it steels the will to resist. Putin probably understands this precedent; after all the depredations of the Nazi’s in World War Two did little to shake the Soviet Union’s will to resist.
So what was the plan?
It seems most likely that the missile attacks on Ukraine were a show of strength specifically for Putin’s ultra-nationalist supporters in Russia. The strikes were designed to demonstrate he is a tough leader, responding to violence with violence. And, most importantly the attacks bought him time politically and reduced criticism of the war in the influential Russian military blogger community. Avenging the attack on Kerch Bridge with a barrage of cruise missiles demonstrated his resolve to his hawkish supporters; and did so in a manner that did not encourage a NATO military escalation. The hypothesis that Putin is suffering domestically and is taking action to shore up his support is supported by two other actions last week.
Putin, made another move popular with hawkish ultra-nationalists, appointing General Sergei Surovikin as the new overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Although the appointment is unlikely to make much difference militarily, Surovikin has a reputation for brutality that pleased Russia’s military blogger community, who were happy to overlook the fact that Surovikin has already been serving without distinction in southern Ukraine.
Then on 14 October, Putin discussed mobilisation saying that it was nearly complete and stating that “Nothing additional is being planned”. The mobilisation decree is very unpopular and caused many young Russian men to flee the country. In an interview on CNN, Professor Nina Khrushcheva, a Professor of International Affairs at The New School in New York City, provided her insight into the situation in Russia; noting widespread angst amongst the population created by the war, particularly amongst Russia’s middle-class as sanctions and international isolation increase. Putin’s mobilisation statement was probably to placate this part of the Russian electorate. Taken together Putin’s actions demonstrate that he is working hard to regain popular support in Russia.
Strange as it seems Putin’s attack on Ukraine probably demonstrates that he is trying to de-escalate. Although he bombarded Ukraine with conventional weapons, his nuclear threats were noticeably absent this week. Ukraine ‘upped the ante’ by blowing up the Kerch Bridge, it was a direct challenge to Putin forcing him to back up his ‘I am not bluffing’ statement with action.
Interestingly, Putin did not ‘up the ante’ in response, instead we have seen Putin change his dialogue; trying to present the Kerch Bridge bombing as an act of terrorism and speaking about ‘responses being proportional’, trying to back away from nuclear rhetoric. It is likely that President Biden’s strong support for Ukraine and demonstration of resolve with regard to nuclear threats impacted on the Kremlin. Putin and those around him saw that using tactical nuclear weapons will not shake United States resolve and that NATO’s response would be a nightmare for Russia. While Russia struggles to mobilise and equip its army; NATO has 300,000 well-equipped professional soldiers standing by ready for deployment and overwhelming air power. If the Black Sea Fleet is sunk, or every Russian ammunition stockpile in Ukraine obliterated, or a ‘no fly’ zone established over Ukraine in response to a nuclear escalation it would be devastating for the war effort and difficult to explain to the Russian population.
But more importantly, Putin is likely to be trying to regain support from China, India and other potential allies keen to distance themselves from a leader willing to throw around nuclear threats. This week Putin had a number of wins internationally, so it is a sensible time for him to appear reasonable rather than petulant and aggressive. First, OPEC cut oil production reducing supply and therefore increasing demand; allowing Russia to make more money from its oil exports. A valuable economic lifeline provided by Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC. Further, the increase in fuel costs drives the world economy closer to recession playing to Russia’s long-term strategy. If the world economy slows down, voters in the nations supporting Ukraine may lose their resolve and stop supporting their nation’s commitments to Ukraine allowing Russia to claw back a win.
Second, Elon Musk created controversy by discussing removing Ukraine’s Starlink service. Ukraine operates about 20,000 Starlink platforms providing the internet connectivity that their style of warfighting relies on for its effectiveness. A great deal of the mobility and flexibility of the Ukrainian military comes from their ability to transfer information quickly from remote locations. The drones that send film of targets to HIMARS missile batteries require effective mobile data networks. The fast-moving columns of Ukrainian soldiers advancing across Kharkov Oblast (region) are coordinated using digital data. Ukraine’s network enabled army would be significantly impacted by withdrawal of this service and I’m sure that Putin would have been pleased to see Musk’s comments.
Finally, President Macron of France broke with convention by stating that France would not use nuclear weapons in response to Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. France, Britain and the United States are the three nuclear armed powers in NATO. The key to deterrence is unity and to-date the nuclear armed members of NATO have been careful not to comment publicly about the use of nuclear weapons. President Macron broke that convention and has provided Russia with valuable information and a possible opportunity to create a ‘wedge’ between France and the other nuclear armed states.
At a strategic level Putin had a good week, by toning down his threats and playing smarter he is creating an environment that provides opportunities to divide the coalition supporting Ukraine.
In Ukraine, the battle continues and the frontlines are currently relatively stable. In the north-east the Ukrainians and Russians are fighting around the towns of Kremina and Svatove. Information is not easily available about progress and it seems likely that the Ukrainians are regrouping and preparing either for further offensive action or to ‘dig in’ and hold ground through the autumn. Further south, the Russians continue to mount small and unsuccessful offensive operations against Bhakmut.
The big question tactically though is – What is happening near Kherson? The Ukrainians are controlling information flow very effectively in this area so it is difficult to assess the situation. However, we do know that the Ukrainian campaign using HIMARS and long-range artillery to attack Russian supply lines continues and it seems likely that the aim is still to isolate Kherson forcing its defenders to surrender. Soon it will be autumn, bringing heavy rain that turns the wide Dnipro flood plain into a muddy bog. If the bridges and roads supplying the Russians are damaged by artillery then it will be impossible to supply these forces.
Then in winter temperatures drop, so if the Russians don’t have fuel for heating, food and cold weather clothing their force in Kherson will quickly degrade. ‘General Winter’ will weaken the Russian defenders and make them less likely to hold out. Fighting in urban areas is always hard and requires large amounts of manpower. So it seems likely that the Ukrainians are not in a great hurry to push into Kherson, that it is better for them to keep knocking out Russia’s logistics and artillery; slowly closing in on the city ready to advance in winter.
In summary, this week the tempo of the war slowed down at the tactical level. Ukraine’s large recent advances will inevitably be followed by a period of rest and regrouping. The question is how long this period will be; days, weeks or months. It seems likely that if there is another Ukrainian offensive in the next week or two it will be in a new area; possibly crossing the Dnipro River north of Kherson at the Nova Kachkovka Dam or driving south from Zaporizhia towards the coast.
Failing a new Ukrainian offensive, the most important place to watch next week is the strategic battlefield. Be prepared for Putin to continue to rebuild his mandate at home, the mobilisation will slow down or stop and return to covert means, for instance quietly increasing the size of the annual call up of conscripts in autumn, or using more mercenaries to make up numbers on the frontline. He will try to demonstrate calm and determined management of the situation to his people; keeping the peace between ultra-nationalist military bloggers and the middle class. If he can hold on until winter, there are already cracks in the international community that given time could divide the countries supporting Ukraine; and if that happens, he is still in the game. Now, more than ever it is important that NATO and the international community keep supporting Ukraine.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
You misspelt “Putin takes the gloves off, stops letting the dictator Zelensky murder civilians in Donetsk and Lugansk without reprisal”.
It’s unfortunate that America forced Russia to start dealing with its Ukranian puppet as the satanic American empire did with free nations like Iraq and Libya.
But they did.
Tell that to the people of Lockerbie and the families of the passengers and crew on Pan Am fl103
What MK? Putin the supposed saviour of the people of Ukraine, shows how caring he is by murdering more civilians?
So when have two wrongs made a right Mohammed?
@Sylvian, Wheel and KJ
Mohammed Khan is Cam Slater in a very large white racist kaftan.
He’s no more an Arab, than Chris Luxon is.
You hit the jackpot of right-wing trolls when you took on MK.
Got the popcorn to enjoy the pro Russian rhetoric about to explode in the comments section.
Another problem for Putin will be the internal ruckus and anger as the bodies of draftees return from the front line. Some never lasted a week. No training, no equipment, no body armour, no support, no food.
Public in Moscow and St Petersburg, sheltered from the realities of conflict death, no come face to face with it.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/14/from-mobilization-to-death-in-10-days-russias-draftees-killed-in-ukraine-a79095
“Reports of mobilized soldiers dying in Ukraine — from lawyers such as Nikiforov to residents of far-flung Siberian villages and even former Moscow officials — have emerged with increasing rapidity in recent days, suggesting that new soldiers have been thrown into battle with minimal training. ”
and
“But the deaths in Chelyabinsk also caused outrage on social media, with some locals asking why the men appeared not to have been given any training. “
Meanwhile on the other front….the U.S continues to provoke China.
After Pelosi’s blatant challenge by visiting Taiwan,all U.S tech workers have been ordered to quit their positions in China and return or face losing their citizenship.
The de dollarisation of the world’s economy is gathering force and the Ukraine war will not save it.
Russia is consolidating its forces to defend the annexed regions.Ukraine is getting nowhere slowly and being destroyed.
Russia cannot and will not lose.Hasn’t even started serious military operations yet.The Zelensky puppet govt wants 7billion a month to keep going.That is an unsustainable number.
Blazer, you delude yourself -again!
Oh noo
But Russia is frightened and exhausted, losing fast, they’ve lost Kherson, they’ve run out of missiles,China and India have abandoned them,Putin is dying, his inner circle (so huge Putin has to employ teams to write his xmas cards)is planning to string him up , and now the Viagra stories , recycled from Libya have resurfaced.Oh never was there such a wicked nation as Russia.
Lol
Katyn
No Francesca it is Putin and his circle that is evil not Russia.
“No military gain” one would think the SBU headquarters being wiped out was a significant gain. Vital intelligence sources, energy and command centres was a win no matter how Ben try’s to misdirect otherwise.
I was watching videos out of Russia showing disgruntled conscripts, not properly equipped to the extent that they’re having to wrap cloth around their feet because there are no socks to give them, with 1.5 million uniforms having been paid for but never actually produced.
Put those people in the meat grinder that Kherson is becoming, and a large number will just surrender at the first opportunity, just as I would.
Ukraine has put hotline numbers on Telegram for Russian soldiers to call should they wish to surrender. They’re offering a pretty sweet deal: There’s a cash price list for various items of military equipment they bring across with them, then they get to be a PoW for the duration of the war and finally offered Ukraine citizenship. Seems like a win-win to me!
Sounds like a game show to me!Typical U.S culture -‘come on down…if the price is…right.’
Judging by the Ukrainian M/O it will be a bullet in the kneecaps, Country 404 can’t afford to pay for anything…
Best thing New Zealand can do is keep right out of this cl*sterf*ck of America’s making.
Keep our neutrality and stop winding up Russia.
Headlines since the beginning of the operation
320 missiles in a day: Russia targets short-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine; what is the result? – WION – Mar 2, 2022
Russia running short on guided missiles, firing indiscriminately – Ukraine – Jerusalem Post – March 17, 2022
Russia Running Out of Precision Munitions in Ukraine War Pentagon Official – US News – Mar 24, 2022
Russia running short of precision missiles, say western officials – Financial Times – Apr 29, 2022
SCORCHED EARTH Now humiliated Putin is running out of MISSILES in desperate bid to defeat Ukraine, UK armed forces chief tells TalkTV – Sun – May 5, 2022
Putin ‘running out of missiles’ amid claims quarter of Russian Army now lost – City A.M. – May 6, 2022
Is Russia running out of missiles? US, Russia send mixed messages – Jerusalem Post – May 16, 2022
Explainer: Is Russia Running Low on Missiles? – Moscow Times – May 17, 2022
Has Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Missiles? – SOFREP – May 23, 2022
Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons – UK Defense Journal – Jun 11, 2022
Russia fires five-and-a-half ton Cold War-era missiles designed to destroy aircraft carriers at Ukrainian forces in the Donbas after running out of precision rockets, MoD says – Daily Mail – Jun 12, 2022
Vladimir Putin running short of missiles as Russian forces turn to old weaponry stock – Mirror – Jul 8, 2022
Putin left scratching head as Russia RUNS OUT of missiles to make ground attacks – Express – Jul 23, 2022
Will Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Munitions? – National Interest – Aug 11, 2022
Russia Has Run Out of Long-Range Missiles to Terrorize Ukraine – !945 – Aug 20, 2022
No more than 45% missiles that Russia had before the war remain Chief Directorate of Intelligence – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 27, 2022
Russia ‘running out of Iskander and Kalibr missiles’ – The New Voice of Ukraine / Yahoo – Aug 27, 2022
Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Russia Is Running Low On Missiles – The Drive – Aug 27, 2022
Russian Federation will run out of shells, artillery and armoured vehicles by year end – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report – Newsweek – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine – Defense Post – Sep 1, 2022
Alexander Kovalenko: when Russia will critically run out of missiles – Odessa Journal – Sep 2, 2022
Russia Resorting to Out of Date Missiles as Weapon Stocks Run Low: Ukraine – Newsweek – Sep 4, 2022
Ukraine believes Russia has less than 50 hypersonic missiles left because it can’t get the chips needed to make more: report – Business Insider – Sep 6, 2022
Out Of Missiles! Russia Is Left With ‘Limited Stock’ Of Hypersonic Weapons Due To Microchip Shortage – Ukraine – Eurasian Times – Sep 7, 2022
Looks like they must have been firing paper darts. Next headline, Russia running out of paper.
Schadenfreude again. You are a Putinist.
Remind myself don’t feed the troll!
Fog of war. Some of those headlines could well be proven right. Much of war news is guesswork.
You and whose army?
The Russian Federation is losing. Putin and his followers don’t even understand how they are losing. So used to having others obey his commands, Putin can’t understand it when people just simply refuse to follow orders. It’s just beyond his comprehension.
As Russia’s 300,000 new recruits melts away
“Write to me Papa”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_7w6s3CyCw
Russia’s top military recruitment officer, Roman Kamanov, the head of the ‘Partial Mobilisation’ campaign, found dead in suspicious circumstances.
More than 70 recruitment centres across Russia have been fire bombed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_7w6s3CyCw
Right on Pat!
Prices of the chips used in their cruise missiles have increased on Ebay recently. Clearly very hard for them to source.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/125314292529?hash=item1d2d505b31:g:PCYAAOSwmDFhFgfH&amdata=enc%3AAQAHAAAAoABhoEDx59iepOwou9iserNdR95o4rDPo3WfZMUUPU5deJThWuqlBMaM86L%2FvuW1ZjpJjpjxH5XoPU7PR6Rs4i1kZ9gLzXjRiIAwB8ZlDE8O4G4OnyGMNZl%2Bgh86OaD%2B5D%2B%2Fa7a71%2B70bJUViZPDcEq0vXoG0NUPHtrB4ewSlIjbNGqunMCzwbuEJy%2F7QOiDB2aahjlgTi48JtuSNkGhJrE%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR76H4r_8YA
All the media and knowledgable commentators have gone and gone on this war. Now they have had their fill surely, can we have someone whose brain isn’t soaked in some alcoholic irritant, and with some authority come forward and behind-the-scenes have talks with Putin and his advisors. And see if there can be a settlement to a new norm that will allow Russia to meet its needs from border menaces and Russia to offer pipeline fuel, and supply Ukraine with what they need to carry on, and impress on them to get on with it and not go theatrical and everyone get some thing that works for them as a first step.
We have been watching the tv series ’24’ made around the time of the World Trade Centre attack. and it goes on and on getting more convoluted and I fear that this battle may end up similar if someone with a fully functioning brain doesn’t have some sway. And remember that many wealthy USAs have gone as boarders at military academies in their teens or before. They are as indoctrinated as the Russians, in their mindset. Lets not have another Palestine and Israel contretemps with tough-talking people on both sides who become hardened to anything but making brutal statements with the excuse that ‘they did it to us’ turpitude.
Suggestion: Try watching Short Circuit the old movie for very light relief and a change of topic for a time.
Well Warbler, you certainly have a lighter and more reflective touch than me–and many other blog posters.
And that is a surely good thing, can be “pearls before swine” territory, but hey keep it up. Writing is fun too, keeps the brain engaged.
My analysis from the start has been that this nasty, unnecessary armed conflict one way or another, is imperialist powers slugging it out. Yes Russia is a smaller economy now, no longer a Cold War super power, and the yanks (US Imperialism) want to stand on their throats. There are 750 plus publicly admitted US bases and military and snooping facilities off shore, how many do the Chinese have? The Russians? Answer that Mr Armchair general in chief Morgan.
The US is in balls deep with the supply of high tech weapons. This will grind on until it is resolved in both a gruesome manner and by negotiation in the end.
What will the break up of Russia look like? Seems more and more a likely scenario. The regime is now revealed as too corrupt to maintain and operate a modern professional military and the Russian geopolitical facts and trends are atrocious.
France is the first big NATO power to buckle.
The Great Satan’s days are …numbered.
Yes Putin’s days are numbered!
Here’s the US wars aims neatly summed up 2 days before the invasion. Very prescient. https://archive.ph/C5uY1
And the war spreads east. Another “own goal”?
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/what-annihilation-looks-biden-export-controls-wreaking-havoc-chinas-chip-industry
Under cover of declaring martial law in Russian occupied parts of Ukraine, Putin has declared martial law in Russia.
However, in a sign of Putin’s failing grip on power, it is hard to say what effect Putin’s declaration of Martial law in Russia will actually have. The mayor of Moscow has said there will be no change in his city. in another sign of Putin’s failing power, A Kremlin spokesperson has said that under martial law the Russian borders will not be closed, presumably this means that the mass exodus of eligible draftees for Putin’s ‘Partial Mobilisation’ for Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation’ will be allowed to continue, which would pretty much scupper Putin’s call up for the War in Ukraine.
Putin declares martial law in four annexed regions of Ukraine
Additional emergency powers also granted to heads of all Russian regions
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said, “at present, no measures that would restrict the normal rhythm of life in the city are being imposed.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Mr Putin’s order does not envisage the closure of Russia’s borders, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/10/19/putin-declares-martial-law-in-four-annexed-regions-of-ukraine/
Kremlin mouthpiece RT (Russia Today) reports that martial law already existed in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine;
Putin introduces martial law in former Ukrainian regions
The Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, already had martial law in place when they became parts of Russia….
https://www.rt.com/russia/564969-putin-martial-law-former-ukrainian-regions/?
I think you are misreading the tea leaves there Pat. Of course there’s no change for Moscow with martial law as its not under martial law. Nice try though.
God forbid how you manage to equate martial law in the NEW Russian provinces in the former Ukraine to Putin’s “failing grip on power”
A reliable source quoting Putin putting Moscow under martial law as you allude to would of course be helpful in determining if your screed is indeed valid.
I suspect not.
@1:13 minutes
These orders do something else really important, that we wanted to emphasise they also give wide ranging powers to all other governors across all of Russia…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWPNqqvcc3U
Wary of the response of the Russian people, the Kremlin ordered all state and private media not to call Putin’s invasion of Ukraine a War. When thing started going bad for Russia in this war, too scared to declare a full mobilisation to fight this war, the Russian people’s response to the so called, ‘Partial’ mobilisation is less than enthusiastic.
I think we can safely conclude that Vladimir Putin is deeply afraid of his own people.
“Dictators ride to and fro on Tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the Tigers are getting hungry.” Churchill
“Moscow with martial law as its not under martial law.” Fingrinn
Russia at war is not at war.
Russians are not being mobilised for war they are being partially mobilised for war.
new·speak
[ˈnjuːspiːk]
NOUN
ambiguous euphemistic language used chiefly in political propaganda:
Fingrinn and Pat, you both need to understand that the Russia military works differently to the West. It has a professional core of “contracted” full time soldiers. Then there is the reserve who are people who have been through military service, are fully trained (in much the same way as when we had compulsory military service) . There are around 2 million of these, and the Russians will have called up the necessary special skills within that group. These are not raw recruits.
My son here in NZ was Navy, when he left his contract still required him to be available if called for a number of years. This colours my thinking on the propaganda around “mobilisation”.
Oh that evil Putin. Who will the poms truss now?
https://postimg.cc/KK5xybSH