GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Poland bombed? Lucky social media doesn’t run NATO!

Last week we found out why we rely on military professionals to fight wars.  On Wednesday morning, both mainstream and social media went crazy; after it was reported that Russia had bombed Poland.  A frenzy of reporting and commentary erupted. Ukraine immediately claiming it was a Russian strike and calling for a NATO military response.  What would NATO do?  Would Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty be invoked requiring a military response from NATO? News channels trumpeted the increased threat of NATO and Russia coming to blows and starting World War Three.  

When I heard about the incident, the first thing that I did was Google; Przewodow the town that had been hit.  Google Maps told me it was about six kilometres from the Ukraine – Russian border and near Lviv.  It also told me that there was nothing of military significance in that town. So applying Hanlon’s Razor; the theory that when an unfortunate incident can be attributed to either malice or stupidity then it was most likely to be the latter; I assessed that with the archaic state of Russia’s tech and the poor standards of Russian training it was most likely that the incident was caused by an accident. Further, if (in a moment of suicidal stupidity) Russia escalated and attacked NATO it is unlikely that they would do so by bombing a small rural village.  However, watching the media furore I was disappointed as reputable news networks dived into exaggerated and unsubstantiated scare-mongering.  It probably gets more ‘clicks’ but doesn’t serve the wider public.

Fortunately, NATO is an alliance run by military professionals trained to be calm under pressure and aware of their responsibilities.  Quickly, an investigation took place and NATO’s position was clarified.  The investigation concluding the explosion was caused by an off course, Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. This makes perfect sense, Lviv in Ukraine is the main town through which aid to Ukraine flows from Europe. It is close to the border and is often attacked by the Russians so is surrounded by Ukrainian air defence missiles.  

If you are not familiar with air defence its useful to explain some technical points. Intercepting Russian cruise missiles with the range to attack Lviv is difficult and takes sophisticated air defence systems. The most common system the Ukrainians deploy in this role is the Soviet S300 air defence missile system with a range of approximately 70-200km depending on the model and a large explosive warhead.  A warhead so big that the Russians have used modified S300 missiles to attack ground targets in Ukraine.  An S300 missile travels at approximately 3,200 – 4,800 kmph so even a minor error could mean that the missile lands kilometres from its intended target. Even modern precision guided weapons are not always 100% accurate and Soviet era guidance systems like the S300’s are even less accurate.  Further, when a large explosive warhead detonates near an approaching enemy missile; it can send possibly lethal debris flying kilometres in unpredictable directions. In this case, the incident is most likely a tragic mistake; unfortunately one that killed innocent people; but still a mistake. 

It is important to understand the powerful role played by people like NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, President Biden and General Miley the United States’ senior military officer whose considered and sensible responses were exactly what was required at a difficult time. While firmly demonstrating their support for Poland and resolve; they managed to calm the rhetoric and make sure that the situation did not escalate.  Throughout this conflict, Jens Stoltenberg in particular has demonstrated strong leadership as he delicately balances maintaining NATO’s security and supporting Ukraine against the risk of nuclear war.  It is a tough job, but he has done it well.

In Ukraine, the war on the ground continues as predicted.  Starting in the south, the situation around Kherson remains uncertain with reports that Ukrainian forces conducted an amphibious operation on the Kinburn Peninsular early in the week, that are hard to corroborate because of Ukraine’s tight information security in the area.  The Kinburn Peninsular is a thin strip of land that juts west from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, it is approximately 40km long and about 10km wide.  It is possible that the Ukrainians have put a force on the peninsular but it is unlikely that this operation will develop into a major offensive operation unless there is a complete Russian collapse.  The peninsular is too narrow for Ukraine to manoeuvre a large enough force to create a significant breakthrough. This operation and any other reported crossings of the Dnipro River are likely to be probing raids not large crossings that will develop into a major offensive. 

Later in the week, reporting settled down and Ukrainian and Russian forces appear to be establishing balance along the Dnipro River.  An opposed crossing of the Dnipro River by Ukrainian forces is highly unlikely.  Amphibious manoeuvre of the size and scale required is a massive undertaking. The Russians are estimated to have about 20,000 men along the river.  Military planners normally like to attack with a superiority of at least 3-1; so Ukraine would need to get about 60,000 soldiers and their tanks and artillery across the river.  While troops are crossing a river they can’t fight; so Ukraine would need to achieve air and artillery superiority in the area before the crossing could start.  

Therefore it is likely that the Ukrainians will dig in and protect the new frontline.  From the west bank of the Dnipro River they can use HIMARs and artillery to attack Russian forces and interdict the movement of logistics on the M17 and T2202 motorways that take supplies from Crimea into the Kherson area. Further, the M14 and P47 motorways will also be within range making north / south movement harder.  

Moving north, last week saw continued Russian attacks against Bhakmut.  This small town plays a key role in the war.  Tactically important because it sits on a web of road networks; holding it opens up the opportunity for Russian forces to advance north and west on the M03 motorway towards Sloviansk. It also provides access to the route west along the T0504 motorway towards the town of Kostanyantnivka. At this town the T0504 meets the H20 motorway that can be advanced along to attack Kramatorsk from the south.  Holding Bhakmut provides options for Russia to develop its campaign in Donetsk. 

Further north, the Ukrainians are continuing unsuccessfully to try and break through Russian defences arrayed along the Kremina to Svatove line.  This line was the limit of the Ukrainians Kharkov Offensive and the front appears to be stabilising along this line in the Luhansk Oblast (region). On 19 November, the Institute for the Study of War provided confirmation that Russian forces from Kherson are reinforcing positions in Donetsk and Luhansk and stated that “Russia will also likely commit additional mobilized forces in the coming weeks, given that mobilized units of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have finished their training in Brest Oblast, Belarus” The Institute’s assessment being that Russia will use these new forces to secure their position in Luhansk; and to support more aggressive offensive operations in Donetsk. 

Strategically, the war against Ukraine’s people continues with ongoing rocket and drone attacks that by the end of this week had significantly damaged the country’s power infrastructure.  Some reports claiming that about a quarter of Ukrainians were without power this week.  This campaign is set to continue with reports that Iranian drone manufacturers are helping set up production in Russia.  

Last week, we discussed the increasing communication between United States President Joe Biden and his contemporary President Xi Jin Ping of China (See – A sudden attack of sensibleness! And; not just in Russia either!) and highlighted the potential for de-escalation because of these powers working together.  Then this week, the importance of this relationship was under scored as Xi Jin Ping reined in Putin’s nuclear rhetoric; stating at the G20 Summit that “Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear wars must not be fought” a clear indictment of Russian threats and a comment that brought an immediate response from the Kremlin.  Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov claiming that Russia had never threatened the use of nuclear weapons.  

The speed of Russia’s response and the categorical denial of any such threats, no matter how preposterous clearly demonstrates Putin’s hard strategic truth.  Once, the smirking and smug leader of the anti-West; his war in Ukraine and careless nuclear threats have destroyed Russia strategically.  NATO is stronger than ever and now includes the powerful and once neutral Finland and Sweden on Russia’s north flank. On the southern flank, Turkey is growing in power and demonstrably unafraid of Russia, the Black Sea is no longer a Russian lake.  (See – Autumn in Ukraine, warlords arise and Russia loses the Black Sea) Economically, socially and politically Russia is isolated.  And; now Putin has to accept that Russia must take its lead from China.  Quickly, responding to the Chinese President’s statements and clarifying that nuclear weapons are ‘off the table’.  If Putin, ever reflects on his actions he must regret this war terribly.

But, does he have a way out? Can he rescue victory from the jaws of defeat? Perhaps.  We can see that the Russians are playing a much smarter game in recent weeks.  And; General Surovakin’s unfolding plan makes sense. By withdrawing from Kherson, Russia stole the initiative and now if Ukraine wants to maintain momentum it needs to find a new line of attack.  While the Ukrainians assess their options and redeploy, Russia has time to do its own planning and we can see that plan unfolding as follows:

• Stabilise the defensive lines in the north and south.  Dig in along the Kremina – Svatove Line and stop the Ukrainians getting further into Luhansk. Dig in along the Dnipro River and stop the Ukrainians advancing east along the coast.   
• Use newly generated forces to restart offensive operations in Donetsk, probably focused on capturing Bhakmut first then Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
• Bomb Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

The overall aim being to bring Ukraine to a battlefield stalemate and force them to negotiate.

This plan makes sense and appears to have a level of commitment within the Kremlin. So in the next few weeks it is likely that we will see:

• Continuing stabilisation of the Kherson front. Although there are reports of Ukrainian crossings of the Dnipro River it is highly unlikely that the Ukrainians will be able to cross the river in sufficient numbers to start a new offensive, so expect this area to remain static.
• However, if the Ukrainians do cross the Dnipro River in numbers, it is likely that we will see a sudden collapse of Russian forces and possibly even a push into the Crimea because Ukraine; being able to cross the Dnipro River in large numbers indicates that Russia’s forces are falling apart. 
• Russian attacks on Ukrainian infra-structure will continue.  The Russians are working with Iran to produce drones in Russia so expect things to get worse.  Shooting down drones is exhausting Ukraine’s stocks of surface to air missiles so we will see more Russian air force activity as defences weaken.
• A large-scale Russian offensive in or near Donetsk.  New mobilised troops, trained in Belarus are now arriving in Donetsk and after withdrawing from Kherson, General Surovakin needs to demonstrate success.  
• Don’t expect major Ukrainian offensives at this time.  It will take time to reduce numbers around Kherson and move them elsewhere.  Instead expect the Ukrainians to dig in, consolidate and prepare for offensive action early in the New Year when the ground freezes.

In summary, we are in a new phase of the war; political tensions inside the Kremlin appear to be suppressed and we can see a centrally developed and tactically sensible plan for the campaign.  By holding the ground taken and concentrating on one line of attack; Russia may be able to force a stalemate. A stalemate that combined with the strategic campaign targeting Ukraine’s civilian infra-structure may drag Ukraine to the negotiating table.  The world needs to keep supporting Ukraine and supplying the weapons, training and money the country needs to stop this plan working.

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.