GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Pacific Intelligence Update

A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

G7 

This week Hiroshima hosted the G7 foreign ministers.  A meeting rife with tension, Russia posturing in previous weeks to influence Japan’s commitment to the Ukraine War, Sino-American tensions running high and French President Emmanuel Macron making ill-considered comments last week that suggested Europe saw the Pacific as China’s sphere of influence.

The meeting looks set to establish new policy positions and key points to look out for are:

• The United Kingdom’s Pacific agenda. After leaving the EU, the United Kingdom is looking for markets and through AUKUS is demonstrating its desire to be relevant in the Pacific.  The nation’s military and economic goals synchronising. 
• The leaders made clear statements of support for Ukraine, condemned Russian nuclear threats and promised severe consequences for any use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.  
• The forum also reaffirmed their commitment to Taiwan, countering the statements made by Macron last week.

This important forum contributed to collective security and deterrence in the Pacific by re-affirming its commitment to Ukraine; and to Taiwan.  This strong support means that there is a significant consequence economically for China if it tries to invade Taiwan, disincentivising this approach and encouraging peaceful dialogue. 

 

Taiwan Update

United States warship transits the Strait of Taiwan

USS Milius, an American destroyer sailed through the Strait of Taiwan on 16/17 April.  The transit is a demonstration of United States commitment to free passage through this important water way.  

Although, China claims Taiwan; and therefore the strait. By law the middle of the strait is international waters; so any nation’s vessels should be able to use it at any time.  

Normally, American warships exercise the right to free passage through the Taiwan Strait monthly. And; although this seems like a provocative action, it is not uncommon in international disputes for a major power to enforce these rights because it benefits all nations by keeping trade routes open so maritime commerce continues even if there is local tension.  

Taiwan purchasing more land-based anti-ship missiles

Taiwan is currently negotiating the purchase of an extra 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles.  Harpoon is a well-tested and accurate anti-ship missile able to hit an enemy vessel at a range of about 120-200 km depending on the model.  Taiwan intends to use the missiles in land-based batteries as a deterrent to Chinese amphibious operations.  Saturating any landing attempt with accurate missiles fired from mobile hard to target launchers. 

United States plans new embassy in Vanuatu

The United States recently announced plans for a new embassy in Vanuatu. A year after re-opening it embassy in the Solomon Islands.

The new embassy is part of the wider Sino-American battle for influence in the region.  A permanent American diplomatic (and intelligence) presence in Vanuatu will monitor Chinese activity in the country and provide the diplomatic infra-structure to challenge any activity that is not in the interests of the United States and its allies. 

This is a small move in the larger Pacific chess match. However, it is important because any war in the Pacific will predominantly involve air, naval and long-range precision guided weapons; all of which require bases. Being situated south of the Solomon Islands, roughly between New Caledonia and Fiji; Vanuatu is a valuable base for any power aiming to control the Coral Sea.  Control of the Coral Sea allows Australia’s eastern seaboard to be isolated.  So, in future expect to see lots of Sino-American diplomacy and information war throughout this part of the Pacific. 

New Zealand signs defence arrangement with Australia 

The Chiefs of the Australian and New Zealand armies signed a new cooperation agreement this week, Plan ANZAC.  A bilateral agreement that is designed to improve inter-operability and is described in official statements as “enabling the two armies to exchange views and share situational awareness, capability, training and readiness.” 

In plain language, this agreement will bring the Australian and New Zealand armies closer together making sure that their soldiers can work together easily; in either peace or conflict.  Increasingly, Australia has become more integrated with the United States. Both countries sharing command doctrine, procedures, weapons systems, training together and importantly developing shared digital networks.  New Zealand has taken a different path and this agreement reflects a desire to bring the two army’s levels of capability closer.

Further, as we have discussed in previous articles this agreement is part of a wider competitive strategy. The United States and its allies racing to build a regional collective security structure isolating China; and denying China ‘entry points’ into the region.  Immediately after signing the deal, both army chiefs will travel together to Fiji and Vanuatu aiming to encourage both countries into similar arrangements.  It is likely that we will see more of these joint diplomatic advances into the Pacific in coming months. 

Russian North Pacific Fleet commander changed after fleet readiness check

On 14 April, Sergei Shoigu Russian Defence Minister authorised a surprise readiness check for the Russian Pacific Fleet.  Obviously, the fleet’s readiness was found wanting because on 20 April Russian state media announced that Admiral Viktor Liina, currently commanding the Baltic Fleet would assume command of the Pacific Fleet. 

This change and the readiness check are important activities to note because they demonstrate Russian interest in the Pacific.  Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going well; and Putin desperately needs to demonstrate that rather than being a country with an economy about the same size as Australia’s (13 or 14th largest in the world) and the second-best army in Ukraine, Russia is still a super power on equal footing with China and the United States.  

A key Cold War metric of super power status was ‘force projection;’ or the ability to deploy military power globally. It seems that Russia’s activity in the Pacific is an attempt to build relevance; especially with potential ally China by demonstrating Russia’s global reach. 

Relationships, climate change and United States Pacific strategy

On 20 April, the United States announced that its Department of Defence recently completed a climate change assessment tool to be used by the United States and some of its allies to assess the impacts of climate change and prepare for the future.  The countries involved in the programme are Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.

For people interested in geo-politics and strategy this is an important initiative because it is a sign that the United States military recognises the impact of climate change; and is preparing for it.  It is also likely that the initiative; or similar initiatives will start to be implemented in the Pacific.   Cooperation with the United States over climate change is a form of ‘soft power’ that can be used to build and strengthen relationships between America and Pacific nations. 

The day before, speaking to the House Security Committee the commander of United States forces in the Indo Pacific Region, Admiral John C. Aquilino discussed the asymmetric advantage that America enjoys in the region because of its network of allies and partners.

Admiral Aquilino, was upfront about the level of risk in the region saying that “War is not inevitable, and it’s not imminent. However, this decade presents a period of increased risk.” 

His testimony discussed the importance of building strong alliances and relationships in order to mitigate the risk. Admiral Aquilino’s testimony reflects the United States strategic policy of collective security, or the idea that by working together a group of likeminded nations can deter future aggression.  And; working together over climate change is likely to be one aspect of this approach. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger