GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Pacific Intelligence Update

A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

China / Taiwan tension still high 

The China / Taiwan situation is still the Pacific’s biggest news story.  Throughout the week China continued a series of intimidating and threatening military exercises. Although, it is highly unlikely that these exercises will escalate into an invasion the activity is threatening and demonstrates an aggressive approach to the Taiwan issue that does not bode well for Pacific security.

Another, important point to note is French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China this week.  On the flight home, after being feted by Xi Jin Ping he made statements to Politico reporters supporting the ‘One China’ policy and saying he felt Europe should not necessarily follow the United States into a conflict supporting Taiwan.  

The comments caused a firestorm in European diplomatic circles as officials and politicians made it clear that Macron does not speak for Europe; and that the Pacific is very much an area of interest for the European Union.

Macron’s remarks indicating the possibility of splitting European and United States foreign policy objectives.  China is disincentivised from invading Taiwan because of military and economic deterrence by nations that support a rules-based order; specifically, the United States and Europe. The unity of America, Europe and the world opposing Russia provides a strong deterrent to military action.  If there is any division; or it looks like Europe may not commit to sanctions against China or to supporting Taiwan militarily; an invasion becomes more likely.  An effective statesman does not bask in the glow of fawning parades and cups of tea with powerful leaders, instead they remember that their words are powerful and matter.  Macron’s words this week, undermine France’s position in Europe and contribute Pacific tensions. 

 

Pacific leaders continue to react to the AUKUS submarine deal 

Reaction to the AUKUS submarine deal continues. This week the United States discussed the deal with the Chair of the Pacific Islands Forum, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown.  The key issue discussed was the Treaty of Raratonga, an agreement signed in 1985 that the commits Pacific Island nations to remaining nuclear weapon free.   

In March this year Brown had stated “The whole intention of the Treaty of Rarotonga was to try to de-escalate what were at the time Cold War tensions between the major superpowers. This AUKUS arrangement seems to be going against it.” After the recent discussion Brown said that he had been reassured by the United States that the AUKUS deal would honour the treaty.  

Many Pacific leaders have voiced their opposition to the deal including the influential Pacific Elders Voice a group of retired Pacific Island leaders. Pacific Nations have two key criticisms;

• The Pacific is proudly nuclear weapon free; and has a history of opposition to nuclear weapons.  The AUKUS submarines are not nuclear armed but there is still considerable concern about their deployment in the Pacific.
• The deal was made secretly by two major Pacific powers and the United Kingdom, without discussion or consultation with other smaller Pacific nations.  

This criticism will do nothing to change the AUKUS deal, however the ‘tone deafness’ of the AUKUS partners regarding the foreign policy objectives of smaller Pacific nations needs to be challenged. The future of the Pacific involves significant Sino-American competition and the way to maintain peace and stability is for AUKUS countries to build a coalition of Pacific nations and international powers able to work together to deter armed aggression. 

Pentagon leak reveals China has tested hypersonic missile

The recent leak of Pentagon classified documents relating to the Ukraine War provided a piece of important information relating to Pacific security.  On 25 February, China tested an experimental hypersonic missile, a DF 27 hypersonic glide vehicle.

The United States intelligence report commenting that the missile flew for 12 minutes covering a range of 2,100km. This intelligence means that both the United States and China now either have or are very close to having a hypersonic capability.  

Putting this test into a military perspective, hypersonic missiles cannot currently be intercepted and a weapon with this range based in Honiara, Solomon Islands would be able to strike Cairns, Townsville and Brisbane in Australia. Likewise, from the Chinese mainland it could engage almost all of Japan and all of the Philippines and Taiwan.  

 

Russian plans in the North Pacific

This week the Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is keen to deter Japan from providing support to Ukraine by increasing its activity in the North Pacific. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stating on 14 April that Russia intends to exercise combat readiness to prevent an enemy deployment into the Sea of Okhotsk and to protect the Kuril and Sakhalin Islands. 

The islands are claimed by both Russia and Japan and are tension point in the North Pacific.

Two weeks ago, we reported that Russia’s Eastern Military District has moved Bastion missiles to Russian held islands in the area.  And; this week’s statement by Shoigu contributes to the increasing level of Russian interest in the area. 

The Institute assess that Russia’s aim is not to invade any of the islands; or even to prevent a Japanese invasion but instead to increase tension in the region forcing Japan to stop supporting Ukraine and focus its attention on the North Pacific stating that “Russia likely intends to use military posturing in the north Pacific to raise fears about military escalation with Japan in an increased effort to prevent Japan from further supporting Ukraine when it hosts the G7 meeting in Hiroshima.” 

This activity highlights the inter-connectedness of the modern world. Russia posturing in the frozen North Pacific, aiming to influence Japan’s support for a war on the other side if the globe demonstrating clearly that what happens in the Pacific; or vice versa is important internationally.  

Australian man charged with spying 

Australian IT specialist, Alexander Csergo was recently arrested by the Australian Federal Police and the charged with espionage. 

Although an Australian citizen, Csergo lived abroad and was arrested and charged on his recent return to Australia.  The Australian Federal Police allege that two years ago Csergo was approached on social media by agents that set up and in-person meeting in Shanghai. Although, the meeting was in a Chinese city there has been no statement about which country he is alleged to be working for. 

At the meeting in Shanghai, he was offered money for information about Australian defence, economic and national security arrangements. 

Although, there are relatively few details at this stage this case is worth following because it demonstrates that this region is not immune to the machinations of the world’s intelligence services and Pacific nations need to be vigilant. And; that the public discourse needs to acknowledge and discuss the activities of intelligence agencies in this region. 

New French offshore patrol vessel arrives in Noumea

New French patrol vessel Auguste Bénébig, arrived in Noumea last week. A new long-range patrol vessel that is the first of a class of six that the French Navy plans to deploy in the Pacific. The new patrol boats are long-range surveillance vessels designed for law enforcement and patrolling fisheries. 

Unlike other European nations France still has colonies in the Pacific; and is keen to protect them. In 2021, the International Institute for Strategic Studies reported that “France has in recent years become the main European defence and security player in the Indo-Pacific. Its presence is built on three military commands and two forces covering the Indian and Pacific oceans and several thousand personnel stationed across the region, including four infantry regiments and multiple gendarmerie units.” France maintains bases, ships and soldiers in the region and when Pacific strategy is discussed this force must be considered. 

The arrival of this vessel and its sisters demonstrates France’s commitment to being a Pacific power; and like the increasing deployment of United States Coast Guard vessels reflects an application of ‘soft power,’ these vessels being focussed on supporting enforcement of both their colonies and smaller nation’s economic zones.  The subtext being that it is a challenge to Russia, China and some other nations that operate large fishing fleets in the Pacific, often over-fishing in the poorly policed parts of the region. Supporting other nations in this way develops relationships that may be useful in any future conflict. 

France, is a ‘wild card.’ It is not part of the AUKUS alliance and is unlikely to be. France has never been willing to accept American leadership and resolutely sets its own foreign policy. A European power with a considerable military presence in the region that adds complexity to questions of Pacific security. 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger