GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Kerch Bridge – Ukraine ups the ante!
Blowing up the Kerch Bridge is certainly a coup for the Ukrainian military. The bridge is the main rail and road link between Crimea and Russia. At this time, it is especially important because Russia’s battle in Kherson is supported logistically from Crimea. Damaging the bridge will slow down Russia’s ability to resupply its forces in and around Kherson. Further, this operation demonstrates a very high level of technical capability.
Damaging a bridge of this size is not easy. Bridges are made of concrete, reinforced with steel so if explosive charges are simply placed on the bridge; the blast will take the path of least resistance around the structure, making a loud noise but doing little damage. Therefore, explosives need to be precisely placed so that their blast is directed to cut and damage key structural components. The footage showed that a section of bridge has collapsed meaning that the attack was carried out with a degree of precision. Achieving this attack against a heavily guarded and well-defended bridge demonstrates a high-level of planning and sophistication.
The military effects of this attack are significant, but the real intent of the attack is psychological. This attack is deliberately provocative because the Kerch Bridge was built after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014. It was opened by Putin himself in 2018, demonstrating an enduring physical link between Ukraine and Russia. Crimea is a popular Russian holiday destination with an estimated 50,000 holiday-makers in the region at this time. This is a blow struck against Putin personally, destroying infra-structure that he values and demonstrating that he cannot guarantee the security of his people in Crimea.
Further, this attack coincides with President Biden discussing his concerns about nuclear escalation. At a donor’s event this week he made a statement to the effect that “this war is taking the world closer to nuclear Armageddon than anything since the Cuban Missile Crisis”. The President’s speech caused considerable international concern and needs to be carefully interpreted. It was not a formal statement. Instead, it was a made at an event for key Democratic Party donors and there is no footage or transcripts of it; only second-hand reporting. This means that the context of his words is subject to interpretation leaving a range of possible options open including:
- President Biden, is very worried and preparing the United States, NATO and the world for the prospect of imminent catastrophe; or
- The President is sending a coded message to Putin that the United States understands the threat and is prepared for it; or
- In a relatively informal environment President Biden was reflecting on the dangers of the current situation.
It is hard to interpret this speech and it seems most likely that the statement is a mixture of all three. Clearly, the world is some way from the tension of the Cuban Missile Crisis. During this period both Russia and the United States mobilised their strategic nuclear forces. The United States had a large portion of its nuclear bomber force armed and in the air 24 hours a day, ready to attack. Russian ships were intercepted and boarded enroute to Cuba by the United States Navy. The superpowers were aggressively escalating their nuclear readiness and there was an imminent prospect of Soviet and United States military units clashing and setting off a war.
President Biden was a young man in 1962 and likely clearly remembers the tension and fear, something that post- Cold War his generation hoped not to experience again. Although the war in Ukraine is not at this level of tension, Putin’s behaviour certainly triggers fears that the world is moving closer to nuclear war. This situation is of concern to all people and the President of the United States is in position of considerable responsibility and it seems likely that President Biden is being transparent about his concerns.
However, we know the United States and NATO are watching Russia’s nuclear arsenal like hawks; and that at this time no change in posture is detected. We also know that since Russia’s annexation announcement Ukrainian forces continue to advance into the annexed regions. Areas that Putin has said Russia will defend with “all means” that has not yet elicited an escalation or threats of a nuclear response. So at this stage, although the evidence points to nuclear escalation being unlikely, President Biden probably thought that it made sense to remind people, including Putin of the dangerous game that is being played.
A recent interpretation of Putin’s recent statements by Emily Ferris, from the Royal United Services Institute may add a layer of nuance to this discussion, in a commentary on 4 October her analysis was that Putin was signalling that he wanted to finish the current conflict. In the article Ferris observes that “If in his mobilisation speech a few days prior, Putin was issuing thinly veiled threats – which we should nevertheless take seriously – on his readiness to use nuclear force, within a few hours Peskov (Putin’s media spokesperson) sought to assuage concerns, maintaining that Russia did not want to amplify this message and calling for responsible behaviour by all”. She contends that Putin is under pressure from his allies to de-escalate, that “Pressure from President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi – with whom important political and economic relationships are at stake – is likely to be more of an influence on Putin’s overall strategy for the war than his inner circle or reports from his generals”. Further, she noted that Putin offered peace negotiation in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from the annexed territories. However, Ferris finished her commentary by noting that Putin framed the Ukraine War in terms of a wider conflict between the ‘West’ and the ‘anti-West’.
An interesting analysis because it provides a logic and rationale for Putin’s current action and a potential picture of his larger strategy. Essentially, that use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons would damage his relationships with potential future allies. Russia’s position as leader of the anti-West has been seriously diminished by the failure of Russia’s military and if he is to retain a position of world influence then he needs to extract himself from the war. So, the only available strategy is to hang on until an ‘off ramp’ presents itself that allows Putin to claim a victory and retain power in Russia.
This strategy is likely to be supported by the majority of Putin’s Russian elite because they understand the situation that Russia is in; and that if they actually use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons they will lose everything. The Ukrainians, on the other hand see this dynamic developing and know that if Putin and his ultra-nationalist supporters survive then Russia will continue to be a threat to their nation. If Putin’s regime survives the war, then there is the prospect that by working with its allies, Russia will be able to rebuild its military and Ukraine will at some later date have to face further aggression.
Therefore, it is in their interests to act aggressively now and force a decision; making Putin either escalate; destroying Russia in the process. Or forcing Putin to back down causing his political demise. Attacking the Kerch Bridge, is an example of Ukraine ignoring Putin’s threats and ‘upping the ante’ to put pressure on Putin. Essentially, Ukraine is calling Putin’s bluff regarding using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. The Ukrainian aim is to drive as hard and as fast a possible, keeping Putin on ‘the backfoot’. In this position he is a ‘loser’ and cannot generate the support internally within the Russian military that he needs for a nuclear escalation and his international allies do not have the confidence in him to support it either. And, the best way to keep Putin on ‘the backfoot’ is to keep winning battles that recover territory and already pressure is building on Kherson. This battle is important because the Russians are trapped and a hasty withdrawal is not possible, so when the battle is lost a large number of Russian soldiers will fall into Ukrainian hands. A major propaganda victory, that to-date has eluded the Ukrainians because the Russians have withdrawn quickly enough to avoid capture. When film of thousands of Russian prisoners being marched en masse into captivity is shown it will be very politically damaging for Putin.
Therefore, the next few weeks will continue to be interesting. The Russian army in Ukraine is collapsing and is unlikely to recover. The Ukrainians are closing in on Kherson and the possibility of a third axis of advance opening up in the south, perhaps a thrust towards Mariupol or an offensive pushing south from Zaporizhia is becoming more likely. Cutting the Kerch Bridge may even be a prelude to a new offensive. The Ukrainians are forcing the ‘ante’ up and up. Eventually, Putin is going to run out of options and will need to either test escalation; or come to the bargaining table. The question in coming weeks is whether Ukraine’s likely strategic goal of destroying Putin’s regime matches with its supporters? If Putin identifies an ‘off ramp’ that could end the war, but allows him to retain power, will the United States and NATO continue to support Ukraine? It is also important that Ukraine’s supporters understand and accept the risks Ukraine’s strategy. So in coming weeks Ukraine, NATO and the United States will need to synchronise their strategic goals so that they can start detailed planning for the end of this war.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Russia has wanted negotiations all along.The U.S does not entertain them.
More people will…die.
“The breaking of the West’s hegemony is INEVITABLE” – Translation from Putin’s latest speech
Putin getting what he wants will only lead to more trouble making from him
Whenever Russia is getting what it wants, it always demands even more – Julia Davis
Problem with the negotiations is that Russia want total control of the four regions (plus Crimea) annexed with no possible compromise. Ukraine wants no compromise on their position that ALL territories (including Crimea) are returned to them.
Ukraine also wants full restitution from Russia for the rebuild.
Not sure how either Russia or Ukraine can negotiate from those positions. Russia cant for Putin will be finished, Ukraine cant for that means giving up sovereignty to a imperialist power.
In Chess terms. There will be no resignation but a fight till only the two kings and one pawn each is left on the board.
What utter bs Blazer. Putin is a ‘man of peace’. Don’t make me laugh!
But they didn’t blow up the rail link and this is by far the most important for military need. Still it is another P.R victory, which is mainly what the Ukrainians are achieving.
Still Ukraine are daring the Russians to do to them what the USA and NATO(stan) do to every country they invade, and that is to obliterate their infrastructure so 100,000’s of innocent woman and children can die.
Like turkey’s voting for multiple ‘thanks giving days’.
America fighting the Russias to the very last Ukrainian.
The real issue is” winning the peace”, and that wont be easy if Russia goes full psycho on the population of western Ukraine. Don’t expect shock and awe tactics, we haven’t seen them so far and likely wont. If you want an example of where that leads ask Vietnamese, Iraqis, Lybians, Serbs how much love they have for USA after their countries were obliterated. Its not a strategy for long term peace.
Sorry Nick you are not remotely correct with regards to Vietnam. They moved on yonks ago, and more officially with the policy of doi moi in the 90’s. I am sure some harbour bad will but that’s just as true for many in the south that lost everything when the north helped themselves to the possessions of who ever they felt like.
Wheel, I employed a Vietnamese boat person of Chinese ethnic origin. He had absolutely no love of the south Vietnamese nor the communists. The people he loathed most however were the Americans. Maybe he was an anomaly, I suspect not. Some things you just don’t move on from that quickly.
I am basing my comment on living there for a considerable amount of time ( years) and working with many Vietnamese. Yes I can imagine being of Chinese origin would be complicated. That relationship was complex to say the least.
I will take your word for it.
So you’d support Serbia destroying the Kosovans or the Bosnians? I suppose you would deny that Srebenica never happened and evil bastards such as Mladic should get away with genocide.
I’m in agreement with you on that.
You are off your head Kerriman.
One of the rail tracks is damaged and is not being used yet. The other rail track is intact but to date is only being used for “light” traffic. It may have suffered some structural damage hence light traffic only to date. Same with the remaining road lane. It is only open for light traffic and satellite photos show it is structurally damaged. Putting a lot of heavily loaded trucks over that road span before repairs are done would be tempting fate. Agree that Ukraine have won the PR victory having damaged the bridge Russia declared was invincible and the most heavily protected in the world. As for Russia destroying solely civilian targets that is on them and their choice and they will be judged on that along with other war crimes.
The latest about the purely P.R attempt to ‘blow up of the bridge’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HYbQ8XFKpE
You persist with these mindless slogans Kerriman. What an idiot you are!
Could you let us know which countries Nato has invaded please.
Yugoslavia.
And they agreed with the USA invasion and supplied limited (P.R) troops, but under the national countries flags, in almost EVERY illegal/immoral USA invasion in the last 20+ years.
When you’ve got killers like the Serbs Mladic and Karadzic on the loose you need to intervene. Yugoslavia was legitimate. Don’t pretend it wasn’t Kerriman or do you support genocide?
The Kerch Bridge is damaged and traffic (both rail and road) reduced to 50% volume. The road is further restricted to 3Ton total vehicle weight limit. No heavy trucks.
Now the bridge is easily fixed as it is modular in design (steel trusses on concrete piers). Simply lift out the damaged sections and replace with spares. Problem is this requires heavy lift maritime cranes and sheer legs (Bridge deck is not strong enough for land based heavy lift cranes). Russia may have these in the Black Sea ready to go but they face a problem in that they are easy targets. Once destroyed no replacements are available. Any further attacks on the bridge makes repair to it, impossible.
The maritime heavy lift cranes and sheer legs are mainly owned by NATO or Asian nations (though one wonders where the Ukraine register one is) eg:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_sheerleg
Nothing is impossible including damage reconstruction but it will not be a quick fix in regards getting cranes in place and defended against attack.
Question is; will Turkey allow the transit of maritime salvage equipment bought in from Asia, through the Posphorus Straight as they could be considered aiding the Russian war effort.
Will any Asian maritime heavy lift owner risk insurance on the capital plant, people, and forward work orders.
cranes are in place already youll be pleased to know, repairs underway ahead of schedule, no problems with the Bosporus
Good thoughts Ben. Keep them coming!
I wouldn’t bother analyzing Biden’s off the cuff comments too deeply because his brain is made of scrambled egg to the extent that he greets people that aren’t actually there. He’ll go straight from White House to Dementia ward.
Your last two sentences are the key to this article. Can Putin identify an off ramp that keeps him in power and is acceptable to NATO, and somewhat reluctantly, Ukraine?
In my view this off ramp would be Russia keeping all the territory occupied in 2014 and incorporating it into Russia. As well as keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
This would now be hard to achieve. Ukraine and Russia, in different ways, have both suffered too much. At the minimum, Ukraine would want cast iron security guarantees. However, the best guarantee is actually being in NATO. Could Putin survive Ukraine being in NATO?
Ukraine has also said it won’t negotiate with Putin, but this is unrealistic. Ukraine can’t force a Russian coup detat against Putin.
Because the war has hardened positions, I don’t see nay negotiations for some time yet. So more war yet, perhaps for another 12 months.
Wayne, your last two paragraphs I agree with but from a different angle. Earlier you mentioned an off ramp for Putin.
Let’s begin with the perception that Russia is Putin. Whilst a central character he is no more “Russia” than Jacinda is NZ. The Russian Duma are unanimous, this is existential versus the West. Remove Putin and this will continue.
All indicators point to Russia being the only side prepared to give an off ramp to Ukraine and NATO. At the end of this month the Russian mobilisation and deployment will end, coinciding with frozen ground. It would pay NATO to seek terms prior. Whether the Russians will entertain them and what they will entail are a moot point.
Tell me I’m wrong in November, ad hominems from the usual suspects will be ignored.
Yeah Nah.
The Duma just does as it’s told. Given proper elections the makeup of the Duma would look starkly different.
The offramp is Ukraine regaining all of its territory, including Crimea, as agreed in the Minsk Agreement, and Putin in a grave.
Not happening though is it Andrew. The semi downing of Putins bridge has only enraged him and he has upped the anti. As was rightly known Putin has an arsenal well beyond Ukraines, and the US mini supply is but a speck compared to Russias.
Sadly the media drive many people’s thoughts rather than individual research. Russia is a superpower, Ukraine is not.
Wrong, wrong, wrong Nick RWJ. Take away Putin and Russia changes substantially. Your misjudgements about Russia are breathtaking. You basically don’t have a bloody clue!
Yes Lavrov will succeed him …new boss ..same as..
How do you know that Lavrov is the same as Putin? Assuming it is Lavrov, it could be Patrushev or even Medvedev. You don’t have a bloody clue!
“Let’s begin with the perception that Russia is Putin. Whilst a central character he is no more “Russia” than Jacinda is NZ.”
Nor was Key.
Things are getting really interesting now.
Ben vs the Russophiles – who will win? The microwave is automated and my popcorn is ready!
I agree Wayne. Reluctantly.
Utter nonsense Fantail. Those Putin supporting fascists are not Russophiles at all! If they had Russia’s welfare at heart they would support Navalny!
I was going to call them something worse but chose not to deliberately offend.
If you are watching Ukraine and Russia tearing each other apart you are missing the real action, the bit which really has knock on effects for NZ. Our European and British markets are on the ropes.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/
https://southfront.org/high-energy-costs-wreak-havoc-on-british-economy-as-companies-close-at-rapid-rate/
That’s just a sample of the dire economic news. Unreported in the Msm are the massive anti NATO demos in Paris and other European capitals.
Elsewhere OPEC showed their self interest and solidarity in telling the US “no can do” on price controls and production levels to damage Russia. So we are stuck with higher pump prices.
Whatever happens now in Ukraine the damage to Europe is totally immense. That hurts our markets, and leaves us more exposed to China who are the only ones who can pick up the slack. Better hope that our geopolitical alignment doesn’t piss off the Chinese or OPEC members.
You really are a conspiracist Nick RWJ.
Judging by the latest vote in the UN, Russia has only 13 supporters. A far cry from the claims of the Putinist fascists on this site.
No one has mentioned missiles? You anti Russia types really are a pack of fucknuckles.
What was the headline for Ben’s last column?
Complete Russian collapse in Ukraine is imminent
We are not anti-Russia Seer. We are are anti-Putin and anti-siloviki. Get that into your thick skull Seer!
Machine translation of http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69568
“Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council”:
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Colleagues, good afternoon.
You know that yesterday the Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia Alexander Ivanovich Bastrykin reported to me on the first results of the investigation into the sabotage committed on the Crimean Bridge.
Forensic and other expertise, as well as operational information, suggest that the october 8 bombing was a terrorist act, a terrorist attack aimed at destroying Russia’s civilian, critical infrastructure.
It is also obvious that the customers, organizers, executors of the terrorist attack are the Ukrainian special services. The Kiev regime has long used terrorist methods. These are the murders of public figures, journalists, scientists, both in Ukraine and in Russia. These are terrorist shelling of Donbass cities, which have been going on for more than eight years. These are also acts of atomic terrorism, I mean missile and artillery strikes on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.
But not only: the special services of Ukraine have also carried out three terrorist acts against the Kursk nuclear power plant of Russia, repeatedly undermining the high-voltage lines of the power plant. As a result of the third such terrorist attack, three such lines were damaged at once. By the measures taken, the damage was eliminated as soon as possible, no serious consequences were allowed.
But a number of other terrorist attacks and attempts at similar crimes have been committed against the electric power facilities and gas transportation infrastructure of our country, including an attempt to blow up the Turkish Stream gas transmission system at one of the sections.
All this is proved by objective data, including the testimony of the detained perpetrators of these terrorist attacks.
As you know, representatives of Russia are not allowed to investigate the causes of explosions and the destruction of international gas transportation systems passing along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. But we are all well aware of the ultimate beneficiary of this crime.
Thus, the Kiev regime, by its actions, actually put itself on the same plane with international terrorist formations, with the most odious groups. It is simply impossible to leave crimes of this kind unanswered.
This morning, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Defense and according to the plan of the General Staff of Russia, a massive strike was delivered with high-precision long-range air, sea and land-based weapons on energy, military command and communications facilities of Ukraine.
In the event of continued attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory, Russia’s responses will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats posed by the Russian Federation. No one should have any doubt about that.
I ask the Defence Minister to report on the results.
Russia is the terrorist state not Ukraine. Countless speakers in the UN General Assembly debate confirmed this yesterday.
Interesting from the USA yesterday. Tulsi Gabbard resigned from being a registered Democrat citing that they were led by a cabal of warmongering neocons. She is well placed to make that judgement.
Cold winter in Europe coming up, won’t even be able to take a drive.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dark-days-ahead-europe-lack-russian-oil-could-spark-worst-energy-crisis-decades
Schadenfreude.
No, self inflicted wounds.
More on the real war, MBS and OPEC have openly challenged the legitimacy of US authority. Reminds me of Napoleon’s comment upon when the ancien Regime lost authority, “The Queen’s death must be dated from the Diamond Necklace Trial”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/quid-pro-no-saudi-arabia-says-us-asked-oil-cut-delay-until-after-midterms
And the war spreads east.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-possibility-reconciliation-any-longer-us-and-china-are-now-officially-economic-war
Very soon Kherson will be liberated from the Orcs. Putin is looking for a way out.
Volunteer Student Army in the recently liberated areas help villagers rebuild.
Chernihiv Village Ukraine
@0:40 minutes;
“We need to rebuild this house faster because they need to live somewhere before the winter Tetainia Burianova – Rebuild Together
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPJNS8bU7TQ
How Putin uses the same tactics in every war
https://fb.watch/g8TYbH5w7F/
Genocide and racism are the two main hallmarks of every imperialist power that has ever been.
Russian oligarch launches racist, homophobic attack on Nanaia Mahuta
Katie Ham
17:11, Oct 14 2022
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300712471/russian-oligarch-launches-racist-homophobic-attack-on-nanaia-mahuta
FFS Pat most intelligent people understand one drop kicks opinion doesn’t automatically mean he speaks for Putin. Dredging the bottom of the barrel there Pat.
I never associated you with intelligence finngrin. This particular oligarch is the founder of the Wagner Group – a convicted criminal – a badge of honour amongst Putinists. You have a very strange perspective finngrin. Can you prove you are intelligent?
It has become obvious to me that there are paid trolls on this site. This would explain their poor language skills. A certain person who calls people banderite trolls and mentions having worked in Russia is a prime example. He is still in Russia!!! Another Lord HawHaw!
The following 60 minutes show is notable for the showcasing a totally convinced apologist for Putin, who supports the war, who claims that there have been few deaths, who claims that Putin has been restrained in the conduct of the war, and that this war will be over soon, and wll be a victory for Russia and Putin.
Also notable in this documentary;
Despite overpowering state repression and violence, the Russian people’s growing resistance to Putin’s dictatorial rule. Risking police boots and batons and 15 year prison sentences Russians are still protesting this war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iV8J7h85mk&t=2s
88% of Russians are either very concerned or fairly concerned about the ‘SMO’ in Ukraine.