GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Keep watching Ukraine’s offensive is far from finished.

Looking back on the last week in Ukraine, it seems that a ‘tipping point’ is developing.  Although the week provided plenty of drama, with discussions about if Russia would blow up the Zaporizhia Nuclear Powerplant, reports that Russia is massing tens of thousands of soldiers in the north-east near Kremina and if Putin’s regime would collapse after Prigozhin’s coup; or whether the plotters would come to a sticky end.  However, in my opinion, the most important action was the announcement that the United States will supply cluster bombs to Ukraine; and in this column I will explain why. But first, let us work through the other activity reported this week and see how it contributes to the developing picture of what is happening in Ukraine. 

Starting with Ukrainian reports on 4 July that Russia plans to destroy the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, spreading a cloud of radioactive fallout across Europe.  Ukraine has signalled this possibility for a long-time; and Russia has a history of willingness to conduct acts that Ukraine’s allies do not consider either lawful or moral in war.  So it was with some relief that during last week tensions decreased and destruction of the plant became less likely, probably because of firm opposition from China and the United States, both countries making their opposition to any attack on the plant well-understood to Putin.   Destruction of the plant is a loss either way for Putin. If NATO enters the war Russia will lose quickly, even imposition of a NATO ‘no-fly’ zone over Ukraine would critically harm his campaign.  And; without China’s support Russia’s economy would suffer catastrophically.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield Ukrainian soldiers are slowly pressing forwards making incremental progress and probing for the holes in Russia’s defences.  The campaign is developing and at this stage, we can summarise the situation as follows:

• In the south-west Ukrainian forces are threatening Tokmak, a key rail junction about 40km north of Melitopol.  If the town is captured Ukraine can disrupt Russia’s ability to supply its forces in Kherson, Crimea and Zaporizhia.  Tokmak is also a first step towards capturing Melitopol on the coast.  Initially, two Ukrainian thrusts threatened Tokmak; one orginating near Orihikiv and another starting about 35-40km further east, near Huliapole.  In recent weeks the Orihikiv axis has been more successful Ukraine advancing about 2km into very strong Russian defences.  
• In the south east, Ukraine is slowly eliminating the Velyka Novosilka salient, a bulge that pushed north into Ukrainian lines about 40km east of Huliapole.  This operation is progressing well with the salient being slowly flattened, Ukrainian forces pressing the Russians back about 5-6km along a roughly 30 km frontage.  
• Ukraine appears to be trying to encircle Bakhmut and in recent weeks Ukrainian forces have advanced about five to six kilometres both north and south of the city. Ukrainian troops capturing high ground overlooking the city and this week in the south, they made significant progress closing in on the town Klishchiivka. However, Ukrainian forces need to advance approximately another six-to-eight kilometres both in the north and in south before they can encircle the city. 

And; Russia is throwing everything it has at the campaign, fighting hard in defence, reinforcing Bakhmut and where ever it has spare soldiers attacking.  Last week, the media reported a large build-up of Russian soldiers roughly 50km north of Bakhmut, near Kremina. This development caused a great deal of discussion because the concentration is large and troops based here can be used for offensive operations pushing west towards Kharkiv, to reinforce the Kremina-Svatove line against a surprise Ukrainian attack in the north east or to reinforce the area around Bakhmut.  Although the Kremina build-up is large; and supported by Russian artillery and missile attacks on nearby Lyman, most military observers are quick to point out that the soldiers moving to this area are recently mobilised reserves unlikely to be able to mount a successful offensive. Further, Kremina’s location makes it useful for a defensively focussed troop concentration; either supporting Bakhmut or the Kremina – Svatove line. Together these factors indicate a sudden Russian counter-attack in the north-east is unlikely at this stage, this force being more use as a threat and defensive reserve rather than an l assault force. 

Generally, the overall state of Russian forces seems to be deteriorating to the point that a counter-attack anywhere is unlikely. Two weeks ago, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia’s reserves in the south were depleted; and this week Russian mil-bloggers are making similar statements, particularly about the Kherson area. Early last week, a Russian mil-blogger claimed that Russia’s forces in Kherson, east of the Dnipro River lack reserves. That frontline forces are fully engaged and their reserve; the 20th Division recently moved to reinforce Bakhmut leaving only one brigade, the 36th behind in reserve.  United States ‘think tank’ the Institute for the Study of War reported similar activity from the Russian mil-blogger space stating that “The milblogger’s description of acute rotation issues supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russian forces likely lack combat-ready reserves.”  

Later in the week on 7 July, the Institute’s assessment included more detailed observations from Ukrainian observer, Konstantin Mashovets, the Institute reporting that “Mashovets’ report suggests that the only reserve that the Russian military maintains in southern Ukraine consists of elements of the 29th Combined Arms Army – the Eastern Military District’s smallest combined arms army that has only one maneuver brigade: the 36thMotorized Rifle Brigade. Elements of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in the Battle of Kyiv in early 2022 and fought near Vuhledar in early 2023 and are thus likely degraded.” Essentially, that Russia’s reserve brigade in the south-west is a tired and depleted unit. 

The Institute for the Study of War also stated that it believes that almost all of Russia’s Eastern Group of Forces has deployed to support the war effort.  That Russia is so desperate for soldiers that troops normally based in the far east of Siberia are now in Ukraine. Again, this observation is consistent with the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence reporting that Russia has removed garrisons from Central Asia and the Far East to support the war. Essentially, both the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence and the Institute for the Study of War are saying the same thing; that Russia’s reserves have been stretched thin and that although the forward lines of defence are strong, Russia’s position is brittle because any break through by Ukraine is impossible for Russia to contain because they do not have reserves.  

However, Ukraine still needs to achieve a breakthrough before they can exploit Russia’s weakness.  Ukraine’s strategy is working drawing Russian forces towards Bakhmut or forcing reserves to come forwards to shore up defence lines.  And; it should be noted that to-date we have not seen a multi-brigade Ukrainian attack on a narrow frontage employing massed combined arms effect like; depth precision strikes, massed artillery, massed armour or large concentrations of engineer support. Instead, we are seeing lots of company-sized operations and smaller activities that in previous wars would have been called raids or patrols but now form part of daily internet news reporting giving an impression of a larger commitment.  Clearly, the Ukrainians are holding their main effort back waiting to strike while testing Russian defences and learning.  

And; I think the United States authorised ‘cluster bomb’ shipments because after a month of testing Russia’s defences Ukraine and the United States know that breaking through without huge Ukrainian losses, requires additional firepower.  The term cluster bomb, refers to ammunition carrying small grenade sized ‘clusters’ of ‘bomblets’ onto a target, each bomblet normally smaller than your fist. Some bomblets are anti-personnel, full of high explosive and are essentially the equivalent of tipping a load of hand grenades onto a position.  Other bomblets contain ‘shaped charges’ designed to bore through the rooves of tanks or infantry bunkers.  ‘Cluster munitions’ come in a variety shapes; artillery shells, rockets and aircraft bombs each delivering a payload of bomblets that ranges from dozens in an artillery shell to hundreds in a rocket or bomb.  The term cluster munition can also include shells, bombs and rockets that spread land mines on a target.  Part of Russia’s defence system involves using artillery, rockets and bombs to seed minefields designed to stop or cut-off Ukrainian forces attacking their positions.   

Cluster munitions are banned by most nations because bomblets do not always detonate leaving lethal bomblets across wide areas. The Red Cross estimates that bomblets have a 10-40% failure rate.  Likewise, mines spread using this system are impossible to track and record. Cluster munitions spread their bomblets or mines over large and hard to define areas; meaning they are difficult to remove at the end of a conflict so may be responsible for maiming or killing people years after fighting stops.

Supplying cluster munitions is big news, and at this stage it does not appear the United States is providing bombs or missiles but rather stocks of old 155mm artillery shells.   This is obviously a measure to control and limit the long-term legacy of these weapons but still provide the Ukrainians with the firepower they need to break through Russia’s defence lines.  Well-built trenches can absorb incredible amounts of conventional artillery fire.  Cluster munitions are different; individual high-explosive bomblets landing in trenches and shaped charge bomblets drilling through overhead protection.  When Ukraine receives cluster munitions for their artillery it will be much more lethal against Russia’s dug-in defences.   

In summary, the real story this week is not that may be Russia planning to destroy the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant or is concentrating forces near Kremina but that after a month of operations, the first part of Ukraine’s strategy appears to be working and is forcing Russia to move reserves around both within Ukraine; and to deplete important garrisons across the whole of the Russian Federation.  

However, Ukraine’s operations demonstrate that the campaign is reaching a ‘tipping point,’ that to transition to the next phase of its offensive Ukraine needs to break through Russia’s strong defensive line.  And; it is probably possible that Ukraine can do this but without additional firepower the transition will be costly.  Cluster munitions provide additional punch more quickly than supplying aircraft like F16s.  Essentially, the United States supplying cluster munitions to Ukraine indicates that both countries are concerned about Ukraine’s ability to breech Russia’s defensive lines without taking unacceptable casualties.  Ukraine’s transition from probing attacks to application of its main effort, the reserve of NATO equipped brigades, is a ‘tipping point’ that is fast approaching and progress towards it will be influenced by how quickly cluster munitions get to Ukraine.