Election 2017: No Country For Old Men
THE NATIONAL PARTY’S BIG PROBLEM in 2017 is that Jacinda Ardern cannot be relied upon to deliver it a fourth consecutive term in government. As anticipated, Phil Goff and David Cunliffe proved to be extremely reliable self-saboteurs – albeit for very different reasons. David Shearer’s challenge to National was real enough – that damn back-story! – but only for a while. The UN trouble-shooter realised pretty early on that he and the Labour Party were never going to be friends and wisely took himself out of play. Andrew Little desperately wanted to be Labour’s next PM, but didn’t know how. Confronted with a guy who couldn’t seem to get out of his own way, National must have thought its fourth consecutive term was in the bag.
Not anymore.
How are Bill English and Steven Joyce supposed to defeat a young woman who can set the cold, cold heart of Paddy Gower aflame? How do a couple of guys on the wrong side of 50 fight a social-media phenomenon? Sure, they can say that elections are about policies – not personalities – but, after ten years of relying on John Key’s winning personality, who’s going to believe them?
Besides, when it comes to policy, National’s bill-of-fare just isn’t that appetising. English’s great achievement, as John Key’s Finance Minister, was to impose an austerity regime upon New Zealand’s public sector without the voters noticing. Now that he’s Prime Minister, however, the consequences of nearly a decade of underfunded social services and insufficient infrastructural spending are hitting the electorate hard where it hurts. Promising to put right your own deliberate “mistakes” isn’t all that likely to make the voters feel better.
You have to hand it to Key – he sure knew when to quit!
And this time National can’t even fight dirty. In 2014, Kim Dotcom and David Cunliffe may, between them, have rescued National from the consequences of its own spectacular political sinning. But, National can’t rely upon the “Moment of Truth” of an overweight deus ex machina to save them a second time. And Jacinda Ardern sure as hell ain’t going to apologise for being a woman!
Not even the media is to be relied upon anymore. Oh sure, the dear old NZ Herald will continue to plod on ahead of the National Party, striking out predictably at all the usual left-wing suspects. In 2017, however, the Government must do without John Armstrong. Yes, Audrey Young and Claire Trevett are still there, but do either of these two women journalists any longer have a dog in National’s electoral fight? Does “More of the same” really beat “Let’s do this!”?
As for the rest of the news media: well, National can pretty much forget about it. With the obvious exceptions of Mike Hosking and Leighton Smith, the inhabitants of the news media’s Olympian heights are bored with the status quo. If “Jacindamania” didn’t already exist, they would have felt obliged to invent it. Moreover, thanks to Metiria Turei’s reckless gamble (heroic sacrifice?) the blood-lust of the press corps’ most ferocious predators has been pretty well satisfied. (Some of them, one suspects, may even be feeling a little bit guilty!) Destroying one young woman politician might be passed-off as an unfortunate necessity; but destroying two begins to look like sadism.
And then there’s Winston. (There’s always Winston!) That old dog still has a good nose for what’s coming down the road – especially if that road’s in Northland. Like the hapless Green Party, he’s watching his supporters pass him by. He knows where they’re headed and what it means. Come election night, the winds of change will be blowing hard and he knows better than to steer NZ First’s ship into the teeth of a howling gale. Even if he was able to, somehow, reach the good ship National, Peters knows that all he can expect to do in 2020 is be dragged under with it – along with his political legacy.
Winston understands that, in 2017, New Zealand is no country for old men who attempt to stand in the way of young women.
Steven Joyce has created two adverts attacking Labours policies.
Hey dildo Joyce, I can think of at least $28 million that was wasted on a vanity flag project that could have contributed to, that could have been spent on a water levy, so you created this situation.
It’s still interests me that Simon “pursed lips” Bridges can’t give an answer as to where the money will come from , to his several overspends on roading and transport. One can rightly claim that National are hypocrites.
A fair and accurate assessment of where things are at.
My Extrapolated A,ssessment Poll, or GEA Poll as it is known, is showing that National is actually in for a thrashing and everyone I talk to Left or Right just yawns when Bill English’s name is mentioned.
Like the Tories in the U.K their policies of more tax cuts etc look like they belong in Jurassic Park.
Expect them to wheel out the old hackneyed ‘Labour’s Money Tree’ line which failed to resonate in the U.K…..yep ,old and hackneyed….sums up the National Party….out of the ideas that they never had…
GEA Poll prediction for election night.
Labour 42%
National 35%
Margin of Era 0.5%
This song’s for Bill
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0ksj3RKZY4
Nice! A fairy at Forty!
This is why a balance must be found between bemoaning Metiria Turei’s outrageous fortune and allowing Jacinda’s positive message to predominate.
The motivated campaign to mobilise the disadvantage may work, but it may not.
Who really knows what is needed to mobilise the “missing million”?
However, the Jacinda effect has been seen to be real.
To overplay Turei’s problems might just mobilise the comfy middle against the “undeserving poor” to no electoral advantage.
A social media push to get out the beneficiary-sympathetic vote could be useful, but the time to redress the balance will ultimately be after winning in September, by reorganizing WINZ to make them a REAL helping agency, not just Government’s arm in protecting itself from poor people.
Always assuming, of course, that the poor have the means to access social media…
You really should look at what apps young people use, Mr Bark.
Call it for what it is, Trotter:
MISOGYNY
Using gentle adjectives such as “sadism” merely places you in collaboration with the forces of patriarchal oppression.
Choose better words or risk being misinterpreted…
Chris – you don’t look like a tattered coat upon a stick. Am I hearing your soul clap its hands and sing?
Its a Labour led govt , folks !
🙂
So let us look at this closer.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/95700006/government-announces-revised-transport-plans-for-auckland
“With $20bn already committed, Bridges said the remaining $5.9bn will be sourced from the Government, Auckland Council and private sector.”
When Jacinda stated a regional tax to pay for rail in Auckland, Bridges attacked Jacinda and Labour for more taxes.
So can someone explain to me what “$5.9bn will be sourced from the Government, Auckland Council and private sector.” means. Does this mean Auckland council will require raising taxes for this?
With old, greedy, boring men at the helm New Zealand has become the same. Time for a change… If abiet slightly better.
I feel like Chris is spinning two messages at the same time in regards to Metiria Turei. Some of his columns have lauded her admission as a circuit breaker for the Left, challenging Labour to up the ante as well. Other times he sees it as reckess foolhardiness. But points of view could be seen as fair, but coming from the same person?
I agree with you EP. He seems to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds over the Greens.
I really wonder what has gotinto the head of Labour. They have pissed off Aucklanders with a proposed petrol tax, anyone that has anything to do with water, and proposed a capital gains tax. The Maori party seemed
quite sensible tonight I must sat though. The Nats in their of 1 in 3 govt cars being electric soon will help the common man with the dissociated infrastructure (charging stations) quite green really although the cost of the cars would need to reduce.
The Rogernomes said there ” will be a lot of pain but then you will see the benefits ” ,… well then ,… its been 33 years and there hasn’t been any ‘ benefits’.
Its just been a ruse for 33 years of theft and abuse.
No ones going to fall for that bullshit anymore.
Neo liberals can get fucked. And yes. I am bloody angry about what they did to this once prosperous country.
And so I say to the neo liberals, … in time , – and as more and more people get shitted off with the lies and avarice of the neo liberal elite there will be a move back to social democracy – and invariably , – a modified form of Keyneianism.
And we can then say to the neo liberals,… ” there will be some pain at first , – but then you will see the benefits”.
Expect major changes to be happening in the Labour party over the next few years.
They are coming home.
And the Greens are showing them how.
i am cheered by yr words – and agree with them..
It can certainly not be ruled out, that we will get a youth and female voter quake, lifting Jacinda Ardern into the position of Prime Minister this election, albeit it will not be as easy as some may think.
The government and their backers will point to her age of 37 years, saying she would be too young to run a government, and to negotiate with such old horses as Winston Peters. They will of course try to say, the leaders may have changed, but is the same old party, with the same old policies.
But others have done it, even though a little bit older, and of different political persuasion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Trudeau
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron
Internationally young leaders seem more common in less democratic or dynasty like systems and states:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_youngest_state_leaders_since_1900
The girl from Morrinsville has big shoes to fill, despite of her background:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinda_Ardern
Perhaps she will get only close this time, but will get there in 2020, we will know more in a few weeks time.
Personally I would have liked a more policy focused, genuine candidate, with a bit more real life experience, and not just having served for others like Tony Blair, Phil Goff and so.
Good point HC. We had such a candidate in David Cunliffe, but the neolib machine made mincemeat of him.
The apparent acceptance of Ardern/Davis as “their” candidates now is a little worrying for any Progressive.
Indeed,
Door knocking yesterday revealed two strands of commentary from the public;
1. the Green party handling of Ms Turei’s disclosures seemed to them to be “inept”,
2. There was an undercurrent of sympathy for her – even from her critics.
If the mainstream media elite tried to pull a second stunt like that (and then blame it on the Labour Party), they’d be in for a rough time. It may be the first time that msm offices are daubed with blood red paint demanding “Hands off Jacinda you Hyenas!”.
Interesting last line. I hope it proves true, if Jacinda needs them at all. There is more steel in her backbone than in any of the current old men and women of the right-wing.
Still waiting for Roger Douglas’s Magical Benefits, the Neoliberal Experiment was one Ginormous F$%k U* ?
No, no. It’s achieved exactly what was intended, i.e. to drive down wages, move more money into the hands of the wealthy, and create an impoverished underclass that can be blamed for all society’s ills. 🙁
So true that. The Elite are very clever but also evil…
Speaking of stale rotting male corpses still hanging in there, I see a Ohariu poll has Peter Dunne on 34%, behind Labour’s Greg O’Connor who is on 48%!
It’s not looking good for Natz. Good.
Shit I thought that was satire over at The Standard… so busy and not keeping up with whats happening…
Dunne down?
Dirty deeds and they’re Dunne dirt cheap !!!!
Piss off Dunne,- you’re Dunne for and bloody good riddance!!!
Family bloody values, my arse !!!
Dunne the HYPOCRITE !!!
The King of Synthetic Cannabis ?
Dunne is gone burger…