Dr Liz Gordon: The politics, fears and realities of Covid-19

Our supermarket shelves are not empty here in Christchurch, but there are some fascinating gaps: tissues, toilet paper and bacterial hand sanitisers.  The latter is interesting. A British study last year found it was not very effective at all against colds and flu (including coronaviruses like the common cold). Better to wash your hands well and not touch your face.

In a time of uncertainty, people make up their own realities.  Some, like Mr Trump, try and impose these on others, drip feeding incorrect information to the masses.  His pronouncements – no epidemic, things getting better etc – reminded me of Picard on Star Trek, with his pithy saying “Make It So”. And Picard always could, because he was the Captain of his ship, but Trump cannot because he is a buffoon. Assuming the Covid-19 virus does not bend to his will and obey his orders, Trump stands to be exposed as the Emperor Who Has No Clothes on this issue, and it could lose him the election. Hope springs eternal.

We (by we I mean all of us humans) have Covid-19 now and nothing much is going to make it go away.  It is in essence a cold virus and we all know there is no such thing as a cure for the common cold, or even the uncommon one. So, what if the common cold passes through a Pangolin and becomes deadly?

Covid-19 is seen by scientists as a particularly dangerous virus, not because the death rate is high, but because it is relatively low – around 2%.  This means that infected persons survive and are able to infect other persons, ensuring the wide spread of the disease. Flu has a very low death rate, around .1%, for comparative purposes, and of course spreads widely and mutates itself each year. Coronavirus spreads by tiny droplets, as does flu.  It is a highly efficient means of transmission.

Thus, Harvard Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, is now predicting that 40 – 70% of the population will get the coronavirus over the next few months and years.  Let’s say, just for round figures, that this includes 3 billion (3,000,000,000) people who will be infected, conservatively speaking. With a 2% death rate (although this may go down in countries with good health care and good living conditions), we are looking at (applies pen to paper and does calculation) 60 million deaths.  That’s a bit of a shocker, isn’t it? Let’s hope Mr Epidemiologist and me are completely up the wop on this. Or that they find the cure for coronaviruses. Or it doesn’t spread like wildfire, especially in sub-Saharan Africa

So remember, wash your hands and not with that gel.  Even the good stuff that smells like a gin and tonic does not kill the coronavirus. The need for healthy people to self-isolate may come, but surely not now, when there is only one person in the country known to have the disease. Keep healthy. Keep young.  It is age and poor health that are the biggest indicators of death. Be prudent, not afraid. My best advice is do not spitteth onto others and have them also not spit on you.

Dr Liz Gordon is a researcher and a barrister, with interests in destroying neo-liberalism in all its forms and moving towards a socially just society.  She usually blogs on justice, social welfare and education topics.