Can Jacinda survive the Covid fear monster or is she destined to lose 2023?
People were queuing at 1.30am in Auckland for Covid tests.
Not vaccinations.
Tests.
I highlight this as we struggle to find a way to get off this angry Covid tiger without being mauled.
The modeling is grim.
Even at 90% we will see 1030 dead and 11400 hospitalizations.
At 90%.
We aren’t going to get to 90%.
The other grim fact is that Delta is so infectious that it is only a matter of time before it becomes endemic.
So how on earth does Jacinda navigate the transition to endemic with an electorate whose loyalty is built upon keeping us safe from COVID?
No politician, not even David Seymour could survive images of parked Ambulances jammed together outside hospitals because there are not enough beds.
NZ will politically freak out at seeing mass graves.
The naked truth is that we don’t have the hospital, morgue or cemetery capacity to deal with that kind of event.
So.
We have no choice but to use regional lockdowns and national lockdowns when regional ones fail alongside a fucking arsehole of an MIQ system that is far more limited in its intake than it is now, alongside all frontline staff being vaccinated alongside a mass building of hospital, morgue and cemetery capacity on top of an insistent vaccination campaign.
It is only when we have 90% vaccination alongside the hospital and morgue capacity increase that we can start being less restrictive on MIQ.
Expect Kiwis dumb enough to travel who can’t get back in and migrant workers furious they can’t bring their family in to fill the pages of Stuff with their anger and pain, but the Government will face a backlash ten times that if they allow Delta to slip back in.
The danger of Labour’s plan was us getting hit before we were vaccinated – well that moment us here.
Eradication is the only plan because there is no Plan B.
So:
- Viciously tight MIQ
- Regional lockdowns that becomes National if they fail.
- Saliva tests
- More vaccination programs including better community outreach
- Infrastructure for annual vaccinations
- Mass build up of hospital and morgue capacity.
For the 65% who support Jacinda’s public health strategy, this will be framed as life or death.
For the 35% who support Death Cult Capitalism, they will see Jacinda merely delaying the inevitable while they lose money.
The two most powerful forces in politics will be on a collision course in NZ.
The fear of dying by the poor vs the losing of money by the rich.
I believe the debate is about to become excruciatingly polarized & far more hateful.
We are barely comprehending the psychological impact of previous lockdowns and how they are manifesting in our street violence statistics, domestic violence statistics and self harm statistics.
With Delta and the inevitability of endemic spread, every lockdown will generate increasing fury or mass public health emergencies.
Debate will occur in a ultra polarized and increasingly hateful social media landscape that the Party’s themselves will get swept along in.
Into this radioactive and toxic political dialogue will come the Hate Speech legislation which will see both sides lose their minds.
After every major pandemic, there is social unrest.
The peasant revolt in the 1300s, the civil unrest in the 1600s and the civil disobedience in the 1900s, the strict measures required to snuff out pandemics always makes the lives of the poorest unliveable.
And when life becomes unliveable, there is social unrest.
History teaches us this, we KNOW after pandemics comes civil unrest so to watch the growing ingredient list that will spark that unrest climb here with such speed demands a political solution.
Jacinda must find a way to crawl off the back of the Covid fear monster and explain to a frightened electorate (who had grown accustomed to being safe) that Delta demands a higher price without being mauled by that very same frightened and complacent electorate.
If anyone can, Jacinda can.
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Your to do list is everything this government was meant to be doing since the first outbreak, but clearly wasn’t.
Due to this incompetence (MIQ walkway next to vax Centre), the government gets to not have to choose to let the virus in, it’s already here, now all they need is someone to blame.
Covid response is/was all that was holding support for the government together. It will be interesting to see how this goes – whether or not they eliminate the virus this time.
BTW are we holding Labour responsible for those deaths like we were supposed to hold National/ACT responsibly for daring mention living with the virus?
Labour might end up victim of their “elimination” own spin.
History teaches us this, we KNOW after pandemics comes civil unrest
I’m not convinced of that.
From March 2021: Crime plummets during lockdown and remains low
The only one that rose was Domestic Violence.
Sort that out first maybe… the causes and stresses etc, – eg poverty, hunger, high rents, high electricity costs, food insecurity, housing needs, etc
… And, make our OWN Covid vaccines, so we’re not held to ransom by other countries or corporations.
Exactly why do we not have our own Govt owned pharmaceutical manufacturing plant?
right on Kheal
and
if NZ can make (or did) washing machines, it cant be a quantum leap to making respirators.
If we lack the entrepreneurs to convert their machinery shops to accommodate the virus, government should send signals to encourage transition of what industry is left in NZ (global economy?) to produce products that benefit the nation at this time
to produce products that benefit the nation at this time
Yes! Respirators, PPE, and more.
There is no reason that we as a nation cannot do this.
“we” do make that gear. Just not here. https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121971708/fisher–paykel-healthcare-profits-up-37-on-back-of-covid19
Thank you for the info. I did not know that.
Their profits are mind-boggling.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare does not make mechanical ventilators with tubes that are inserted down patients’ throats, instead making a range of non-invasive breathing aids and masks that are designed to be used in hospitals and also at home.
Chief executive Lewis Gradon said nasal “high flow” therapy, and in particular Fisher & Paykel’s Optiflow system, had “steadly gained acceptance as the preferred front line therapy for Covid-19 patients”.
“History teaches us this, we KNOW after pandemics comes civil unrest”
Kheala
“I’m not convinced of that.
From March 2021: Crime plummets during lockdown and remains low”
What part of “after pandemics come civil unrest” do you not understand Kheala?
*Hint: the key word is AFTER
For example not during or while in lockdown
Yep. That article was written in March, after one lockdown (and before the next).
I do not believe that “civil unrest” is inevitable for us here in AO/ NZ. How successful we are in keeping it out, however, remains to be seen. There are ways to avoid it, steps we can take, including some I referred to.
…’If anyone can, Jacinda can’…
————–
BLOODY OATH!
Also,…
…’The peasant revolt in the 1300s, the civil unrest in the 1600s and the civil disobedience in the 1900s, the strict measures required to snuff out pandemics always makes the lives of the poorest unlivable’…
And that is the value of learning ones history.
We are on the right track with Jacinda’s govt, despite all, this is the govt for our time and we are fortunate to have them.
The Pogues – Tuesday Morning
https://youtu.be/gPPscelHVhA?t=3
For no particular reason other than its Monday instead of Tuesday.
The most important lesson of history is that the lessons if history are not learned.
Just wait till the economic catastrophe accompanied by climate chaos hits. Then you will see the fear of the rich losing money accompanied by fear of the poor losing their lives go off scale.
Hurricane Ida takes over where Rita and Katrina left off…
And there is no plan whatsoever, other than more of the same shit that got us into this mess.
That Auckland (and Northland) are cut off from the economy, again, is a disaster in planning. Yes, we were caught unawares in March 2020, but that was 18 months ago. Winston mulled over shifting the external border over a year ago to avoid this but no one in Labour including Jacinda could see the issue with Auckland tourniquet-ed off from the economy. Now Auckland is shut down indefinitely, possibly weeks more, if and that’s a big if we can get rid of this thing. And possibly under even tighter restrictions of freedoms. And I can just imagine how that is affecting Grants bottom line.
Vaccinations or a lack thereof are the next disaster. The South Island as is most of the rest of the country, will be vaccinated up thanks to this but most haven’t seen an outbreak since March/April last year. Yet Auckland will yet again bear the brunt for the 4th time, because the government has had no rational plan to roll these vaccinations out. So whilst the parts of the country that has no border greeting this virus will be vaccinated, Aucklanders in the eye of this storm won’t be and will have to just hope they don’t get infected in the interim. And so far everyone hospitalised comes from Auckland, in no small part thanks to poor planning.
Nothing short of an unlimited vaccination program in Auckland, right here right now is going to save this government’s skin this time. I’m betting though, our government still don’t get it and won’t have the brains to realise this is what they must do.
The problem is NOT the vaccine roll out, read wider than the propaganda media and you’ll see why.
Not sure an Auckland-first vaccine rollout would have sat well with the rest of the country. Do you put the young of Auckland ahead of the elderly and vulnerable in other parts of the country? There is also the risk of leakage through the airports, seaports and MIQ facilities throughout the country. When quarantine-free travel was open with Australia, the chance of an outbreak increased for the whole country, as we saw in Wellington back in June.
Whatever the benefits of the Pfizer-only strategy that the government has taken, the whole risk was that we were left with a programme that would be constrained to the latter half of the year. With a limited supply someone is always going to feel that they are ones not being prioritised. Unfortunately for us, Delta arrived about three months too soon.
Good commentary Martyn. I think there is a path to victory for Labour but it has to walk a tightrope to do so. Consider:
If the daily new infections continue to roar along despite the lockdown then she’s forced into either extending lockdowns indefinitely, thus gaining the ire of those stuck in those lockdowns, or give in and let the virus rip with the consequent deaths blamed on the government. So her only hope of staying in good stead with the voting public is for this lockdown to work, the infection rate fall to near zero, and we’re all let out of Home D within the next couple of weeks. We’ll see, but I don’t rate her chances.
If her poll numbers survive this current lockdown, then she has the next hurdle to jump: As the vaccination rate rises she’s got to set some % vaccination rate at which point she calls it done and opens up the economy. In essence every citizen should have the right to vaccination but there comes a point where the ‘vaccine reluctant’ have been given fair warning and cannot hold the rest of us hostage any longer. Does Ardern have the grit to do that? Or will she endlessly pander to the minority of anti-vaccers and keep the border shut tight? I suspect that Covid is her ‘happy place’ because it provides cover for all the toxic legislation they’re trying to sneak through Parliament.
Next if there’s another MIQ cock-up then I think she’s done for
Lastly, if we get over Covid 19 by the time of the next election then she has to face the backlash against the thoroughly evil, racist legislation she’s trying to push through.
Other inclusions to Plan A:
The government to continue trotting out case numbers as proof of something, perhaps that an inaccurate lab test has performed on a healthy person with little chance of getting sick, or that maybe a terrible crime has been committed. They deliver this meaningless drivel day after day with such belief and manic enthusiasm that one wonders if they should be the ones requiring medical attention.
Continue to blame Maori for low vaccination rates, which should be a person’s choice anyway.
Government, health care and especially media to continue to scapegoat Pacifica communities for outbreaks, in the case of Bloomfield blaming the people of the Pacific for something one day then calling those who react to his comments ‘cowards’ the next.
Continue to see Bloomfield and Ardern whinge on about the need for frontline line workers to wear masks at all times, while they have stood at the lectern for two years without wearing a mask.
To threaten.the public with even more severe lockdowns than level 4 (whatever the hell that is) when the public is already locked up and compliant in home detention. Ardern is the creepiest, showing utmost concern in her tortured face for the mental well-being of those she has personally locked up as pets. A doctor would diagnose this as Munchausen by proxy.
Continue to see the Vaxxer community peddle their unscientific conspiracy theories to win their Twitter wars, sell potions and self help therapies (including to children), enable their isolation lifestyle at home with the Netflix back catalogue, control other human beings, and transform NZ from one of the most open and progressive democracies in the world into an open air prison and community husk. I will probably never trust a politician, health worker or broadcaster again.
Go kinder on the health workers E. They have even less to say about things than you do.
Other inclusions to Plan A:
The government to continue trotting out case numbers as proof of something, perhaps that an inaccurate lab test has performed on a healthy person with little chance of getting sick, or that maybe a terrible crime has been committed. They deliver this meaningless drivel day after day with such belief and manic enthusiasm that one wonders if they should be the ones requiring medical attention.
Continue to blame Maori for low vaccination rates, which should be a person’s choice anyway.
Government, health care and especially media to continue to scapegoat Pacifica communities for outbreaks, in the case of Bloomfield blaming the people of the Pacific for something one day then calling those who react to his comments ‘cowards’ the next.
Continue to see Bloomfield and Ardern whinge on about the need for frontline line workers to wear masks at all times, while they have stood at the lectern for two years without wearing a mask.
To threaten the public with even more severe lockdowns than level 4 (whatever the hell that is) when the public is already locked up and compliant in home detention. Ardern is the creepiest, showing utmost concern in her tortured face for the mental well-being of those she has personally locked up as pets. A doctor would diagnose this as Munchausen by proxy.
Continue to see the Vaxxer community peddle their unscientific conspiracy theories to win their Twitter wars, sell potions and self help therapies (including to children), enable their isolation lifestyle at home with the Netflix back catalogue, control other human beings, and transform NZ from one of the most open and progressive democracies in the world into an open air prison and community husk. I will probably never trust a politician, health worker or broadcaster again.
I don’t know about more lockdowns and the other draconian measures outlined above – watching the football and cricket over the weekend that’s being played in the UK clearly shows that they’ve moved on. Never have I ever before thought I’d rather be in Yorkshire but there you have it.
The UK is seeing high levels of cases but much lower than expected deaths and of the latter, most are from the unvaccinated.
If Jacinda won’t open up, another politician will offer it as an alternative and I can see that it will be an enticing offer to enough across the country to make it a politically difficult decision for Labour.
Why should 70% or more of the population have to suffer through endless lockdowns and the devastating harm they are causing because some muppets choose not to get vaccinated? Children aren’t at school, businesses are closing, our mental health is in the toilet. It’s got to stop.
We can’t beat COVID and it’s always going to be in the world now so it’s time to face that reality and accept as we do with pneumonia, influenza and many many other nasties that people will die from it.
“We can’t beat COVID and it’s always going to be in the world now so it’s time to face that reality and accept as we do with pneumonia, influenza and many many other nasties that people will die from it.”
It’s not time to simply abandon the thus-far successful approach NZ has adopted.
Immunisation/vaccination levels of the population are still far too low to simply accept COVID’s presence in the manner we do with “pneumonia, influenza and many many other nasties that people will die from .” Those diseases don’t pack ICU wards with patients and close down delivery of normal health services.
We still retain the opportunity to manage the inevitable transition into endemic COVID without inviting collapse of the health system and without unnecessary death.
We retain it as long as our governance stays its course listens to people with expertise in public health and disease control and not get spooked by uninformed messages such as yours.
How is my message uniformed? Where has COVID been eradicated or eliminated? The lockdowns in Melbourne are more extreme than NZ’s yet COVID still exists there and more to the point everywhere else in the world. It can be controlled and managed but as far as I know, there doesn’t appear to be a vaccine that will allow us to completely eliminate COVID so at what point do we face into this reality?
I’m not a ‘let it rip’ advocate but what’s the plan to move beyond these lockdowns? At what point do we accept that COVID is endemic and start to get on with things. What level of vaccinations is enough? How fast can we get there?
As for those people with expertise in Public Health – what on earth have they been doing for the past 18 months? Where are the increases in ICU beds, staff and PPE? Where are the investments into improving our resilience in the Health sector? Some expertise to deliver 5 mental health beds from over a billion dollars and a decrease in ICU facilities. I’m no longer confident that they could run a bath let alone a health system
There is months of waiting in AK to get a vaccination for Covid.
As for Labour, are they going to back off the woke/Nat Lite policy that they seem to allow themselves to be influenced by? Middle NZ is not that keen on more health care waiting lists, more asset sales, more immigration, more corporate welfare, more pollution, more taxes, more surveillance, less freedom of speech…..
The government does not need to slow down vaccination – just follow the UK example.
First dose with Astra Zeneca and then second dose with Pfizer when the shipment arrives.
Also use Astra Zeneca for booster shots, mixing vaccines is just as good for sustaining immunity for longer.
As for workplace spread
1. a vaccinated person in PPE gear dies a temperature test people at the door (if the skin test is in the high spectrum – use the thermometer, if that confirms it require a negative test, before they return to work).
2. with nurses, expect them to thermometer themselves each day and provide them with home swab or saliva test kits to use if the temperature is high.
Slumlord boomer investors to get priority vaccines so they can live and buy more property.
Don’t worry, boomer landlord scum gone and more profitable mostly foreign businesses solutions in it’s place. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/116071426/students-body-went-unnoticed-in-university-hall-for-close-to-8-weeks https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300280477/alcoholics-drug-deals-gang-affiliations-domestic-violence–emergency-housing-labelled-as-dangerous
Problem with cancel culture is that they are so busy cancelling everything, but the woke can’t work out that they have far worse capitalist alternatives in it’s place, more expensive, less quality of life….
Fear monsters are creations in the mind and spread through the media. They are artificial and serve no good purpose. A responsible media will disregard them and move purposefully towards overcoming obstacles and helping to find solutions.