Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Whitehouse security leak, Pacific implications

This week’s biggest defence and security news is the shocking revelation that key members of the Whitehouse used the Signal app to discuss recent US attacks on Houthi insurgents in Yemen. Jeffrey Goldberg, editor of the Atlantic magazine was accidently included on the group chat used by Trump cabinet members to discuss the forthcoming attacks, hours before the operation started.

Using any civilian app and personal cell phones is a very significant breech of security protocols. In diplomatic and military circles information security is taken very seriously, most operational discussion takes place using secure encrypted devices. Normally, from secure areas known in US parlance as ’Sensitive Compartmentalised Information Facilities,’ or SCIFs. A protected area or room from which the official can communicate on a secure phone, fax or email.

It is accepted that any digital communication from a normal phone or computer can be intercepted. In the case of encrypted services like Signal by accessing the target’s phone and reading the message when it is downloaded. Every major power or alliance invests huge resources into defeating encryption by accessing their target’s cell phones and waiting for officials to slip. Around the world important people are constantly being tracked by intelligence teams waiting for a mistake.

In March 2024, a senior German officer attending a conference in Singapore made a similar mistake and joined a conference call on an unsecure computer. The call was listened to, and Russian media published embarrassing extracts from it.

Likewise, the personal cell phones of every senior US military officer, diplomat and official are probably being targeted. Der Spiegel, a German news service reported on 27 March that it has found the private email, cell phone and social media details of key people on the leaked group chat including; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz on the ‘dark web.’ In some cases, Der Spiegel reported that passwords were also available online. Reporting that demonstrates how easily commercial networks can be compromised, and why important communications are conducted using secure networks and from SCIFs.

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton explained during an interview on Times Radio, that all senior members of the Whitehouse easy have access to secure communications. Saying that during his period working at the Whitehouse, he had a SCIF installed in his house, secure communications in official cars and on any aircraft carrying him. It seems cavalier to use an app like Signal with such easy access to secure networks. And if this behaviour has been going on for a long time the information provided to US enemies could be significant.

However, from a Pacific security context the most important information is the insight it provided into the world-view of the current Whitehouse. A world-view that appears to eschew any higher philosophical or political ideals and focuses only on a simplistic transactional analysis of geo-politics.

The effective, Cosmopolitan policy of past US leaders like President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, General George Marshall, and President Kennedy that built the modern world and established the US as its leader appears to have disappeared.

Replaced by simplistic, economic analysis of costs and benefits. National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz discussing the President’s instruction to “determine how to compile the cost associated [with re-opening shipping lanes, which assumes the U.S. would achieve that] and levy them on the Europeans.” Another participant believed to be Homeland Security Advisor, Stephen Miller discusses the need to “make clear to Egypt and Europe what we [the US] expect in return” and that “if the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”

Statements that reflect a lack of political depth, and historic understanding. Sea control, built US power and prosperity and is fundamental to US foreign policy. By building the most powerful navy in the world, and by using it to secure freedom of maritime trade across the globe the US benefited commercially. Additionally, sea control established the US as a leader within the wider international community of nations, a benefit that cannot be calculated in strictly economic terms.

If US foreign policy is now driven solely by American economic interests, Pacific nations may be exposed. The security relationships built in the 80 years since World War Two now appear negotiable, and for small nations without the resources to reciprocate this is a dangerous situation. Therefore, now more than ever small Pacific nations need to be committing to collective security relationships, helping each other to secure the region because America’s support now appears to be conditional.

US military returns to Subic Bay in Philippines

Subic Bay is the Philippines Navy’s largest base, and the US recently announced it would permanently pre-position stores there. The press release states that a new US Marine Corps pre-positioning plan will focus on storing humanitarian supplies there including vehicles, communications gear and engineering equipment.

Although the US withdrew from Subic Bay in 1992, it has retained a relationship with the port. American soldiers and ships often visiting while on exercise or resupply. The large base also provides repair facilities for US vessels. The US military also exercises frequently with Philippine, and since 2023 a US naval task force is permanently deployed near Philippines alongside a US Marine Corps unit of surveillance drones.

This decision is another step in America’s steps to strengthen its defence relationship with Philippines. The two nations increasing military cooperation to deter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. This relationship is also strategic because in any future war with China, control of Japan, Taiwan and Philippines allows the US to blockade is opponent’s maritime trade.

US military support for Taiwan continues to increase

US defence support for Taiwan has increased in recent years, including the US Marine Corps exercising and training in the nation. Last year, the US also announced the US Special Forces troops were permanently deployed on Kinmen Island. US Special Forces soldiers, or ‘Green Berets’ are experts in irregular warfare and supporting insurgent groups. A useful force to have ‘on the ground’ if China successfully invades because they can support a guerilla war.

The US Marine Corps is also cooperating with Taiwan’s Marine Corps to re-structure a currently inactive brigade into a force like the US 3^rd Littoral Combat Regiment. A new type of US unit specifically designed to fight in small dispersed groups to avoid providing a large target for Chinese precision-guided missiles and drones.

The US Navy is also working closely with Taiwan, conducting unannounced exercises. The exercises include a wide range of activities like practicing anti-submarine warfare, communicating effectively and resupplying vessels at sea. Activities designed to practice the skills ships, submarines and aircraft need to work together during conflict, known as being ‘inter-operable.’

Additionally, Reuters reports that Taiwan is considering buying $7-10 billion of weapons from the US. President Lai Ching-Te has committed to achieving a target of spending 3% of GDP on defence per annum. The plan prioritises communications, precision-guided missiles, air defence and new equipment for reserve brigades.

Since the Trump administration has taken over the Whitehouse there have been several noteworthy activities that indicate a strengthening commitment to Taiwan,.

Last month, the US State Department changed its ‘Taiwan Fact Sheet’ and removed a small but important sentence – “We do not support Taiwan independence.” The fact sheet states that the US does not support any unilateral change, but does say the US will support Taiwan’s membership in some international forums. Indications that there is a hardening of US attitudes towards China’s policy towards Taiwan. For more information

Then late in February, US Marine Corps officer, Major General Bargeron attended a large Taiwanese exercise. General Bargeron is an important figure in the US Indo-Pacific Command, the Director of Command’s Strategic Planning and Policy Directorate. Essentially, he is a capability development expert whose role is working with partner nations within the Indo-Pacific Command to improve inter-operability and war-fighting capability.

General Bargeron was also the commander that established the first US Marine Corp Littoral Combat Regiment. It is the first time a US officer this senior is known to have attended an exercise in Taiwan, and his presence indicates a high-level of US support.

This activity contributes to an assessment that the new Whitehouse is focussed on competition with China. Taiwan is lynch pin for any US strategy to confront because from a military perspective its location between Japan and Philippines helps control Chinese access to the Pacific.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Australia returns repaired patrol boat to Vanuatu

This week Australia returned the repaired Guardian Class patrol boat, RVS Takuare to Vanuatu. The vessel was badly damaged during Cyclone Kevin in 2023, and returned to Australia for repairs.

RVS Takuare was donated to Vanuatu by Australia through the Pacific Maritime Security Programme, a 30-year-old programme supporting small nations to patrol their territorial waters. A Guardian-class patrol boat is about 40 metres long, and can be lightly armed but is primarily designed for surveillance and law enforcement.

The aim of the Pacific Maritime Security Programme is to support small Pacific nations to secure their own territory. Australia provides the vessels and training, in the expectation that greater local capacity reduces the support its navy must provide to the recipient nations. The programme has a long-history and although its objectives are laudable its results are debatable. Unfortunately, the Guardian Class has a number of design defects that have required work to rectify that undermine the capacity building objective of the programme – More detail here – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/01/serious-defects-discovered-in-patrol-boats-australia-supplied-to-pacific-islands

Several countries have lost Guardian Class vessels in action, Fiji and Samoa both losing vessels that ran aground. Papua New Guinea’s HMPNGS Ted Diro’s engine and transmission failed requiring extensive repair. Essentially, the aims of the Pacific Maritime Security Programme are sensible and mutually beneficial but the Guardian Class may need to be improved. Likewise, any new equipment needs to be supported by training to avoid donated vessels being lost unnecessarily.

Papua New Guinea and New Zealand sign partnership agreement

Papua New Guinea and New Zealand recently signed a new partnership agreement. The agreement includes New Zealand investing $ 1 million to strengthen Papua New Guinea’s government institutions. A useful investment in a small nation that’s state institutions lack capacity, and face significant challenges including managing natural disasters and explosions of large-scale criminal violence.

The agreement includes commitments to work together to support Papua New Guines’s government to strengthen education, trade, security, agriculture and fisheries. The New Zealand government is making a useful investment in Papua New Guinea and the region’s security and stability.