Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Japan, Australia and US plan trilateral training

In mid-November, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin met in Darwin. At the meeting, they expressed concern about China’s increasing assertiveness, especially in the Taiwan Strait and discussed how their three nations militaries will work together more closely.

Subsequently, it was announced that Japanese troops will exercise with their US and Australian counterparts in joint training activating. Training that starts in mid-2025 when Japanese troops participate in Exercise Talisman Sabre. Additionally, Australia will send personnel north to participated in Exercise Orient Shield, hosted by Japan. The plan also involves more liaison and exchanges of personnel between the partners.

The planned exchanges and exercises are further evidence of the trend toward Australia, Japan and the US working more closely together and, actively preparing for potential confrontation. Preparation that contributes to readiness and aims to deter potential aggression. This activity is about deterrence, and to be effective it requires demonstrating two key attributes; resolve and a credible capacity to fight.

Exercises are an important tool for deterring conflict because their expense demonstrates a nation or alliance’s resolve, and because they allow a nation or an alliance to not only practice it’s skills but also demonstrate to potential adversaries the capability to fight. This year in the Pacific, we have witnessed an increasing number of nations exercising together, practicing interoperability and demonstrating their partnership’s readiness.

UK joins Pacific free trade deal

Last year, the UK announced that it wished to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a Pacific centred free-trade agreement with eleven existing members; Australia, Canada, Mexico, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. On 24 December, the UK will become the twelfth member.

Joining the CPTPP is the UK’s biggest trade deal since leaving the European Union, and from a security perspective the diplomacy surrounding this deal is worth noting. The CPTPP evolved from the US initiated Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade agreement sometimes seen as a counter to Chinese influence in the region. The proposal included a number of Pacific nations, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the US. It did not come to fruition because Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement. Instead, the CPTPP in its current form evolved, replacing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The UK’s inclusion demonstrates interest in the region, the Pacific has a range of ex-British colonies spread across it. Clearly, as well as the trade benefits the UK sees strategic benefits it remaining well-engaged with Pacific nations. Like, AUKUS, ANZUK, the Five Power Defence Arrangements of Further the CPTPP is an opportunity for the UK to maintain links with the Pacific region and influence policy in it. Another objective may be trying to ensure that China is kept out of the agreement.

Japan’s investment in Pacific security

Japan’s security involvement in the Pacific continues to increase, changing from development aid toward more material support. This change has historical precedent, in 2018 Japan donated patrol boats to Palau, then in 2020 to Fiji. In the last two years, both Cambodia and Indonesia received patrol boats from Japan and in late-2023 Japanese aid was announced that will fund five additional patrol boats for Philippines. The donations include a wide range of vessels of different sizes and capabilities, however all are law enforcement focused.

Alongside these donations, Japan is investing in a range of programmes designed to improve the surveillance and enforcement capabilities of Pacific nations, including training provided by the Japanese Coast Guard and offers of support from Japanese fisheries research vessels.

The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) is an noteworthy example of this type of activity. The programme was announced in 2022, and evolved out of the Quadrilateral Dialogue. A security forum involving Japan, the US, Australia and India. The Australian Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet’s website describes the partnership as follows “IPMDA is a technology and training initiative to enhance maritime domain awareness in the Indo-Pacific region and to bring increased transparency to its critical waterways. ” Essentially, the partnership is about information sharing and using new technology like satellite communications tools to provided partners with ‘real-time’ intelligence about maritime activity in the Pacific.

Its peaceful applications include monitoring illegal fishing, smuggling, drug trafficking or even providing humanitarian aid during natural disasters. However, the IPMDA has diplomatic and military applications, providing both situational awareness and the ability analyse patterns of activity over long periods of time. Useful information for planning diplomatic or military strategy. Additionally, the unspoken benefits of programmes like the IPMDA are that participating nations build networks and relationships between each other, that are may be useful in times of tension.

Essentially, like many other large powers Japan is working hard to develop its influence in the Pacific. By helping Pacific nations protect their territorial waters it aims to build good will, but the military benefits of real-time situational awareness should not be overlooked.

New Zealand debates foreign interference

The past month has seen debate in New Zealand about foreign interference in government institutions. In November, the Crimes (Countering Foreign Interference) Amendment Bill passed its first reading in parliament. The new legislation specifically targets foreign interference in New Zealand politics and government institutions, creating new offences for this behaviour and updates existing espionage legislation.

Minister of Justice, Paul Goldsmith stating that “These changes are part of ongoing work across government to protect New Zealand and our communities from foreign interference. They also provide a clear message on how seriously we take this issue.” The bill responds to a range of concerns being raised within government and by the public.

The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service’s 2024 Threat Environment Report highlights the risk of foreign interference. Recently, Stuff New’s investigative team published an in-depth article, titled the Long Game(https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/circuit/china-the-long-game/) raising concerns about Chinese political interference in New Zealand. Further, New Zealand has a large Chinese community, including pro-democracy groups that have petitioned parliament with concerns about Chinese government activities targeting dissidents in New Zealand. New Zealand academics are also publicly raising concerns about foreign interference in public institutions,

Debate was reignited this week when it was reported that a group of New Zealand police officers had recently visited China. A trip that has been criticised by academic Dr Anne-Marie Brady, and by some members of the New Zealand Chinese community.

Foreign interference is a significant issue around the globe, and China is certainly not the only country actively engaged in this type of activity. A key observation is that even small countries, like New Zealand need to recognise this threat and take action to mitigate its impact.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Australian sports diplomacy in Papua New Guinea

Australian diplomatic soft power in Melanesia received a boost this week with confirmation that from 2028, the Australian Rugby League will include a Papua New Guinean team. The team will be part sponsored by the Australian government, and is an example of sport being used to build diplomatic influence. Australian Minister of International Development and the Pacific, Pat Conroy bluntly stating in October that “Rugby league is one element of our soft diplomacy.”

The idea may seem amusing but it is important not trivialise the reality of the diplomatic contest in Melanesia. Australia is investing AUS$ 600 million over the next decade to leverage diplomatic influence off the emotional connection that exists because of the two nations shared passion for rugby league. Further, the deal is reported to include a commitment from Papua New Guinea not to engage in security arrangements with China. The Guardian reporting on 11 December that “Although neither leader would divulge details of security discussions, a Pacific diplomatic source confirmed the two governments have shared correspondence that includes a commitment from PNG not to enter into security or military arrangements with China.” It is an interesting example of the diplomatic battle being waged in Melanesia using all forms of ‘soft power,’ but that always links back to strategic security considerations.

Since then, Australia has announced plans to increase the number of staff deployed to assist with training, and will increase amount of equipment it supplies to Solomon Islands. This discussion is noteworthy because it may indicate a closer relationship developing between Solomon Islands and Australia.

‘No confidence’ motion in Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands Prime Minister, Jeremiah Manele currently faces a motion of ‘no confidence.’ The use of ‘no confidence’ motions in smaller Pacific nations is widespread, and disruptive. Any parliament’s ability to make policy, and lead is impacted by this type of politicking that de-stabilises governance. A dangerous prospect in small nations facing not just climate, economic and social challenges but also located in an area of intense competition between larger powers, that may seek to use local instability to gain political advantage.

Vanuatu political instability

In November, Vanuatu’s President, Nikenike Vurobaravu dissolved the nation’s parliament, after ‘no confidence’ motions were entered against both the government and president. This forced a snap election that is scheduled for 14 January 2024.

Vanuatu has a history of political instability and in June this year the nation’s voters returned a resounding ‘Yes’ in a referendum about constitutional changes designed to make the parliamentary system more stable. The current situation indicates that these issues continue to plague the small nation.

More security problems in Papua New Guinea

Recently, these column have discussed the security in Papua New Guinea’s highlands. This week Air Niugini, Papua New Guinea’s national carrier announced that services to Mendi Airport in the Southern Highlands Province would stop because of concerns about security.

Mendi Airport services a large part of Papua New Guinea’s central highlands including parts of Enga Province where an inter-tribal war is being fought. Loss of air civilian air services in this region will have detrimental social and economic impacts on the community, further undermining trust and confidence in state institutions, contributing to the area’s instability. The airline said that flights will resume when security improves.

Recently, Papau New Guinea announced a large increases in police budget that will hopefully provide the resources required to secure and stabilise the Highlands.