Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Indonesia, China and the South China Sea

Last week, Indonesia removed three Chinese vessels from its territory in the South China Sea.  Officially, Indonesia does not dispute any territorial claims with China but this activity is noteworthy and may indicate a change in attitudes.

Indonesia recently elected a new President, Prabowo Subianto and some commentators including the Lowry Institute’s Abdul Rahman Yaacob believe China may be testing Indonesian resolve by entering an area of Indonesian waters called, the Northern Natuna Sea.  This area is in the South China Sea, close to Indonesia and is approximately 1,500 km from China. Indonesia’s reaction to these incursions is to intercept and remove the vessels.

The South China Sea continues to be a hotspot for international competition.  The sea has vast untapped mineral reserves, oil and gas fields, fisheries and is a major international trade route. Approximately 21% of the world’s maritime trade transits the sea, including 40% all petroleum product shipments. The wealth and strategic value of the sea makes it worth controlling. So, even though Indonesia has taken a very measured approach to China, seeking to maintain good relations with both the US and China, its territorial waters are being tested.

Indonesia’s new president is an ex-special forces commander and appears to be demonstrating his nation’s commitment to retain its control over the North Natuna Sea. It will be interesting to see how this situation develops – Is China confident enough to risk alienating several neighbouring countries?  At this stage, it is impossible to know and while the most likely course of action is that China steps back, aiming to retain its friendly relationship with Indonesia. The situation may still escalate in coming weeks, China becoming more rather than less active in this area,

Pacific Islands Forum mission visits New Caledonia

Last week, a mission of Pacific Island leaders visited New Caledonia. This year New Caledonia, a French colony suffered from violent riots, resulting in 13 deaths, thousands of arrests and extensive damage to property.  The riots started when the colony’s indigenous people, known as Kanaks, protested the results of recent independence referendums, and proposals for constitutional change.   The Pacific Islands Forum mission’s aim was to observe and support New Caledonia’s peace process.

The visit was requested by New Caledonian politicians and last week, the recently elected Chair, Tongan Prime Minister Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni led the delegation.  The delegation included Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, Solomon Islands Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter-Shanel Agovaka.

The delegation met with New Caledonian President Louis Mapou, and other members of the colony’s government.  The visit was requested by New Caledonia President Mapou saying, “It’s a mission that the Government of New Caledonia requested, because New Caledonia is a member of the Pacific Islands Forum.” President Mapou explained the role of the visitors in the following manner, “They said that they weren’t here to interfere in New Caledonia’s affairs, but rather because a member of their family is in difficulty – so it’s quite normal that the Forum would visit and say they are ready to contribute to the de-escalation of conflict.”

The visit is noteworthy because it provides a good example of how the Pacific Islands Forum works, its membership bonding and working together in a unique manner. The Forum providing a Pacific perspective on issues including acknowledging the members shared history, and their desire to work together collegiality. President Mapou acknowledging the input saying, “they freely shared their own experience of regionalism: the Cook Islands, which is in free association with New Zealand; Tonga, which is a country that was never colonised; the Solomon Islands, which has suffered through inter-ethnic conflict, and where young people are mobilised; then finally Fiji, which acceded to independence, later withdrew from the Commonwealth, but is again discussing the future.”

Essentially, the Pacific Islands Forum provides a regional structure for nations in the South-West Pacific to share their experience managing complex issues like de-colonisation in a collegial and supportive way.  A model that has been effective helping to manage the impacts of coups in Fiji, war in the Solomon Islands and violent riots in Tonga.  A model that could provide alternative solutions to achieving a lasting peace in New Caledonia. However, long-term peace is predicated on France’s willingness to extend political power to the nation’s indigenous people.

Australia, Japan and the US wargame Pacific scenarios

In late October, the Australian Defence Force announced it plans a series of wargames with Japan and the US. Wargames are planning exercises, involving participants working through realistic potential scenarios in a ‘table top’ simulation. Often, they are opposed, with people ‘playing’ the role of the enemy to provide uncertainty and surprise. Wargaming is a cost-effective way to plan and test ideas.

This set of wargames is specifically focussed on how uncrewed (drone) aircraft, ships and submarines will operate in future conflicts. The activity will be led by Bryan Clark, a senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute’s Centre for Defence Concepts and Technology, an expert on naval operations and uncrewed vehicle tactics. Mr Clarks highlighted the importance of the exercise stating that “The value of having all three countries participate in the activity is that you get their perspectives on how they would approach these operations.,”

This activity is another example of the increasingly close military relationship between the US and its two most powerful Pacific allies. Australia and the US are investing heavily in drone warfare, including advanced autonomous aircraft and naval vessels like Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark. Militaries use wargames to investigate tactical ideas before physically testing them, and this series of exercises will certainly contribute to developing doctrine for using drones.

Australia expands it’s defence industrial base

Last week, Pat Conroy Australian Defence Industry Minister discussed Australia’s defence planning, specifically the need for more long-range missiles and air defence weapons. The minister’s comments reflect the fact that Australia’s defence industry is rapidly expanding, signing deals with large overseas companies like Thales and Lockheed Martin to increase domestic production of missiles and artillery ammunition.  Australia aims to produce sophisticated weapons not only for its own military, but for export.

The Australian government has committed AUS $ 74 billion to acquiring long-range missiles and air defence, including AUS $ 21 billion establishing the Australian Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise. Another AUS $ 316 million is committed to a deal with Lockheed Martin to locally manufacture missiles fired by platforms like High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). By 2029, Australia aims to be producing 4000 missiles annually and exporting them internationally.

Additionally, the government is working with French armaments company Thales to manufacture 155mm artillery ammunition in Australia.  Expanding an existing government owned ammunition factory at Benalla in Victoria. Production is planned to start in 2028, and the plan includes being able to produce up-to 100,000 shells per annum.

In September, this column discussed Australia’s local production deal with Norwegian company Kongsberg to produce Naval and Joint Strike Missiles. Another example of this trend.

Currently, Australia is investing in building its local weapons manufacturing capacity.  This indicated that Australia is learning from the war in Ukraine, and conflicts elsewhere that modern war requires huge amounts of ammunition and ‘just in time’ inventory management is no longer acceptable as the threat of fighting large conventional wars loom. Therefore, Australia is securing its supply of key weapons like missiles and artillery ammunition. Minister Conroy stating that “In a world marked by supply chain disruption and strategic fragility, Australia needs not only to acquire more missiles, but to make more here at home.”  

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

An update on fighting Papua New Guinea’s Enga Province

The Laiagam-Sirunki Highway in Papua New Guinea’s Enga Province, is the epicentre of an outbreak of violence that local police confirmed has resulted in ten deaths. Last week’s incidents appear to be tit for tat revenge attacks. The Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary believe the current violence is linked to a death in March this year.

This type of violence is tragic for the communities effected by it, people are killed or hurt and people’s day-to-day activity is reduced because fear limits their movement. The longer it takes to stop the violence, the greater the impact on communities.  Feuds become more bitter and exposure to violence ‘hardens’ people, making them more likely to use violence. At a practical level the fear of violence causes people to arm themselves, and organise para-military groups, for protection.

The overall impact is that the longer a community has been fighting, the harder it is to de-escalate and disarm it.  Essentially, the more well-armed and accustomed to violence a community is the larger the security force required to establish order.  Therefore, the faster fighting like this can be contained, the less likely it is to spiral out of control.  Papua New Guinea has limited security and law enforcement resources so there is a risk that this area could descend in lawlessness.

An example diplomatic soft power in Papua New Guinea

The Lowry Institute’s blog ‘The Interpreter’ recently discussed the increasing number of Mandarin language training opportunities in Papua New Guinea. Since 2017, when Papua New Guinea and China signed a memorandum of understanding the nation’s universities and communities have greatly increased access to learning Mandarin through sponsored language training centres and Confucius Institutes.

Access to language training and cultural awareness is a powerful diplomatic tool, allowing people to communicate and understand each other better. Universities receive funding and support to establish language course that can be included as an elective in a wide range of degrees.  Additionally, Papua New Guinea’s military and civil service is also encouraged to participate in these training programmes and cultural exchanges. Later, language and cultural awareness provides opportunities to access post-graduate education in China.

This article is noteworthy because it highlights the wide scope of ‘soft power,’ social or economic tools that all large nations use to extend their influence. China, the US, Australia, European nations and Japan are all investing in a range of similar ‘soft’ diplomatic initiatives to win influence in the South-West Pacific.  For instance, governance training programmes, educational opportunities, aid packages, trade deals, law enforcement are all used by larger nations to win support and influence.  The difficult task for all nations in the South-West Pacific is to maximise the benefits they gain from being at the centre of great power competition without being drawn into conflict, or losing their independent voice in international affairs.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack