Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Considering the evolution of land forces in the Pacific

The end of Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025, this year’s largest military exercise in the Pacific, provides an opportunity to reflect on some trends observable in the region’s land forces. US partners and allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, New Zealand, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea are rapidly evolving in the face of changing technology, and the threat of hybrid or even a peer-to-peer conflict with China, North Korea or Russia.

In the future, I plan to expand on these observations about land forces and discuss these trends in more detail.

Observation 1 – Modern wars indicate the need for larger land forces, especially infantry soldiers.

Currently, most democratic nations face shortages of military personnel, especially infantry soldiers. Infantry are the tough soldiers that struggle forwards in rough terrain and bad weather to close with the enemy. A hard, unrelenting, and dangerous job that is essential for victory. The Ukraine War demonstrates that drones and other tech do not reduce the need for infantry soldiers.

In early 2024, I discussed the need for more infantry soldiers in any future Pacific conflict. See- https://benmorganmil.substack.com/p/break-out-the-infantry. Australia is currently working to increase the size of any potential coalition land force both by encouraging more inter-operability with Papua New Guinean and Fijian forces, and by direct recruiting from these nations.

Australia has two strategies, the first of which is supporting smaller nations to improve inter-operability during joint-operations, meaning their infantry heavy forces can we easily integrated into Australian led coalitions. Some examples include, greater participation in Australian led exercises, appointment of senior officers into key positions in the Australian Army and hosting units in Australia for extended periods.

The second strategy is direct recruitment. In small nations like Papua New Guinea and Fiji employment opportunities are limited. Australia is keen to make direct recruitment into their military from these nations easier. In May 2025, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that “Australia and PNG are set to begin negotiations on a new defence treaty that would see Papua New Guineans serve in the ADF.” On 2 June, the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation reported that “Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said he was open to formalising an arrangement that would allow Fijians to serve in the ADF, following confirmation that Australia is short around 5,000 military personnel.” Australia clearly understands the need for more infantry soldiers, so is working with its neighbours to generate larger land forces.

This trend is interesting and we are likely to see the growth of more joint formations that combine Australian logistics, communications and indirect fire support with infantry heavy units from neighbouring countries. We could also see units from other countries, for instance the UK’s Ranger battalions playing a force generation role supporting training and capability development in small Pacific nations.

Observation 2 – Long-range strike capabilities are rapidly developing in the Pacific region.

Drones, precision-guided weapons, and area-denial operations are becoming a central feature of tactics in the Pacific region. During Talisman Sabre Australia’s new Precision Strike Missile (PSM), Singaporean and US High Mobility Army Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and the 2,500km range US Mid-Range Missile were all test fired.

The exercise involved not just firing missiles but also deploying systems quickly including sending a PSM, by air, 1,500km to remote Christmas Island. A key capability test for future Pacific operations because being able to get area-denying long-range missiles on the ground quickly is now an important tactical mission.

Deploying missiles in this manner also contributes to the need for more infantry because they are needed to protect missiles, and to deny ground to an enemy aiming to do the same. Additionally, target identification for these systems requires advanced, highly secure digital communications that are not available to smaller nations. Therefore, providing long-range fire support for coalitions will require larger nations to deploy fire control teams with their smaller partners.

When militaries discuss ‘inter-operability’ they are talking about managing these relationships, and why joint exercises like Talisman Sabre are so important. US and Australian soldiers operating directly with smaller nations like New Zealand, Fiji, Papua New Guinea or Tonga, both parties learning to live and work together in an operational environment.

Observation 3 – The size and geography of the Pacific requires light-weight sustainable forces.

Dispersion is the key to survivability in the next war because satellites and long-range surveillance drones will quickly identify concentrations of troops, and they will be engaged by long-range missiles. Dispersion requires light-weight forces that can live and fight from the equipment and supplies they carry. We are already seeing forces like the U.S. Marine Corps Littoral Regiments and the U.S. 25th Infantry Division evolve into light infantry units capable of operating in very small, sustainable, yet connected formations. This trend will continue and we should expect see allied forces developing in a similar manner.

Light-weight forces will require indirect fire support and this battlefield function is also evolving rapidly. This is a subject I discussed in more detail last year in ‘Lessons about the evolution of indirect fire relevant to potential conflicts in the South-West Pacific.’ See here – https://benmorganmil.substack.com/p/lessons-about-the-evolution-of-indirect

Observation 4 – The littoral environment’s of the Pacific require greater Integration of traditional services.

Historically, militaries tend to split into sea, air and land components, sometimes with deep historic rivalries that can impede combined operations. The geography of the Pacific includes vast areas of ocean punctuated by groups of islands. In the military this type of geography is called a littoral environment.

Manoeuvre in a littoral environment requires sea and air transport, a reason why future land forces need to be light weight, relying on long-range firepower rather than tanks or armoured vehicles for shock effect. However, the days of large amphibious ships are probably over because intensive surveillance by drones and satellites means they are easily spotted. Once located they can be engaged by long-range missiles. Likewise, large fixed airfields are easy targets, and if used will require considerable resources to defend.

Therefore, future forces will use smaller and more flexible transport options. For example, using many small fast patrol boats to move troops around instead of one large landing ship. Air support will probably operate from small dispersed temporary airfields rather than large and vulnerable carriers. The US is already testing using its vertical take-off F-35 fighters in this manner, and the trend is likely to continue.

The trend towards smaller, more dispersed forces will require greater inter-service cooperation. The US is already testing force compositions that include infantry, artillery, transport helicopters, small transport vessels, and even single F-35 fighter aircraft. The question is how are organisations like this commanded, supplied, and administered? A difficult question unless traditional lines between services start to blur.

More clashes in the South China Sea

Philippines and Chinese vessels continue to play a dangerous game of ‘cat and mouse’ in the South China Sea. This week in an incident near Scarborough Shoals two Chinese ships collided. Australian Broadcasting Corporation reporting on 11 August that;” A Chinese navy vessel has collided with one from its own coast guard while chasing a Philippine patrol boat in the South China Sea, with Manila releasing dramatic video footage of the confrontation.”

A notable incident that reinforces how dangerous this piece of ocean has become, as China enforces its unsubstantiated territorial claim over areas of the South China Sea and is opposed by Philippines.

Philippines now publicises these incidents and footage is widely available on social media and news channels. The pictures below are from film taken by the Philippines Coast Guard and show how dangerously close the Chinese ships are manoeuvring as they contest this area. At this stage China has confirmed the incident but has not acknowledged any casualties.

This incident and others like it are noteworthy because they demonstrate Chinese resolve. The willingness to risk large, expensive warships in dangerous manoeuvres indicates China is serious about enforcing its claim. Demonstrating resolve in this manner is part of a hybrid strategy to intimidate other nations that risk having ships damaged and personnel injured if they challenge China’s claim.

Philippines and any of the nations supporting its territorial claims, or freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea must be willing to accept a high-level of risk if they intend to deter this type of behaviour.

UK Carrier Strike Group, US and Japanese Self Defence Force naval forces exercise together in Philippines Sea

After participating in Exercise Talisman Sabre, the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 25, travelled to the Philippines Sea and conducted a nine-day exercise with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force. Carrier Strike Group 25 is built around the Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carrier, HMS Prince of Wales and includes escort and support ships from the UK, Norway, Australia and Spain.

The exercise included the UK Carrier Strike Group training with Japan’s JS Kaga battle group, US Carrier Strike Group 5 based on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington and a US Marine Corps Amphibious Ready Group centred on USS America. Four powerful naval battle groups all based on aircraft or helicopter carriers working together to practice inter-operability and exercise war-fighting skills.

The exercise included practicing naval strike operations, dog-fighting, anti-submarine warfare and multi-national formation flying. A notable evolution was the ‘cross-decking’ of F-35 fighter aircraft from HMS Prince of Walesto JS Kaga. A range of activities designed to practice working together in the air and at sea.

Commodore James Blackmore, Commander UK Carrier Strike Group 25 stated that “Operating together during the many evolutions over the past few weeks demonstrates the enhanced interoperability and the commitment of our partners and allies to the Indo-Pacific region.”

This activity is noteworthy because it is designed to demonstrate the resolve and capability to act of the US and its allies. Although the exercise’s primary focus is building relationships and practicing inter-operability, another objective will be to demonstrate to China that the US and its allies are able to respond to military force with military force. A message designed to deter escalation of regional tensions into military conflict.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Australia gives Papua New Guinea armoured Land Cruisers, and rebuilds airport infrastructure

On 11 August, in another example of the deepening security relationship between the two nations, Australia gifted Papua New Guinea twelve brand new armoured Land Cruisers. The vehicles are lighter than other contemporary vehicles like Bushmaster and Hawkei, so are likely to be used for internal security roles.

Papua New Guines faces endemic organised violence in areas like Enga Province, in the central highlands, where tribal and criminal groups fight small wars with one and other. Small armoured vehicles that can travel on narrow roads and use most bridges will be a very useful addition to Papua New Guinea’s security forces.

This purchase is good example of sensible aid because many modern armoured vehicles are huge. So wide and heavy that they cannot negotiate the narrow tracks that are ‘roads’ in many parts of the Pacific. Toyota Land Cruisers may not be as heavily armoured as vehicles like Bushmaster, LAV or Hawkei but they can go where most modern light armoured vehicles cannot. And, any soldier will tell you that an armoured vehicle that can get you where you need to go is much more useful than one that cannot. Likewise, Toyota’s are a well-engineered and reliable platform that can be easily maintained. Any small-town mechanic can keep a Land Cruiser running.

During the handover ceremony, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Richard Marles also announced Australia would refurbish Papua New Guinea Defence Force – Air Transport Wing’s facilities at Jacksons International Airport in Port Moresby. A refurbishment that will create a more useful facility to support both the Papua New Guinea Defence Force, and the Australian Defence Force.

Solomon Islands and the Pacific Islands Forum

After being pressured to exclude Taiwan from next month’s Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting by China, Solomon Islands choose not to invite any donor nations including the US, Japan and range of European nations. The proposal to defer the 2025 ‘partners discussion’ to 2026 needed to be confirmed by member states, and on 14 August, the foreign ministers of Pacific Island nations met in Suva for final high-level discussions before the leaders meeting.

It was a tense meeting with several nations expressing their opinions about the Solomon Islands decision, and external influence in Pacific affairs. New Zealand, Australia and Fiji stating they did not support deferring the partners meeting. Samoa and Palau speaking in support of the Solomon Islands proposal.

The result was that the forum recognised the Solomon Islands proposal and confirmed that all donor partners including Taiwan, China and the US would not be invited to the 2025 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting.