Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update – A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

South China Sea, a multi-national response to Chinese aggression

On 7 April, Australia, Japan and the United States started a ‘Maritime Cooperative Activity’ in the South China Sea.  ‘Maritime Cooperative Activity’ is military-diplomatic double-speak and means that the partner nations are conducting a demonstration of capability and resolve by deploying ships and planes into the area. The aim being to deter Chinese aggression by demonstrating that between them these nations have the naval capability to over-match China; and further that they have the resolve to do so in support of Philippines.

This activity provides an opportunity to practice inter-operability and to familiarise personnel with joint operations and with local conditions. 

The nations issued a joint statement that says “We (US, Australia and Japan) stand with all nations in safeguarding the international order – based on the rule of law – that is the foundation for a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific region. Our four nations reaffirm the position regarding the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award as a final and legally binding decision on the parties to the dispute.”  And, US Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, Australian Defence Minister, Richard Marles and Japanese Defence Minister Kihara Minora all made individual statements supporting the response.

Recently, China’s level of aggression has increased in the South China Sea as Philippines political stance has changed. Its current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has set a very different policy from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte with regards to this issue.  Duterte distanced Philippines from the US and tried to appease China, establishing a more independent foreign policy position.  This included not publicising confrontations in the South China Sea. President Marcos’ government is taking a different approach.  It publicises confrontations, spotlighting China’s aggressive tactics and seeking support for collective security from its partners and allies. 

History tells us that this is probably the pragmatic course of action, a small nation taking an independent foreign policy position is easily bullied by a larger power and can be forced to accept bi-lateral policy impositions.  For instance, in this case it could mean China having a permanent base on the Second Thomas Shoal about 270km west of the Philippines and 1,100km south-east of China.  

By working with its allies to assert a policy position that is based on the ruling of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal, Philippines is reinforcing the international rules-based order that provides a framework for international maritime trade. A position that is in stark contrast to China’s claim based on the ‘9 Dash Line’ a Chinese interpretation of territory that is not internationally supported. 

Tension will continue to mount in the South China Sea as China tests the resolve of Philippine’s allies. However, current events lead me to assess that the US, Australia and Japan are willing to stand up to China and accept the possibility of direct confrontation. Always pragmatic, and knowing that it is not strong enough to face the US and its partners China will de-escalate for now. Probably waiting for the outcome of the next US Presidential election that may considerably change US foreign policy.

 

New Zealand, AUKUS and NATO 

Internationally, there is an expectation that AUKUS will expand. The Financial Times reported last week that the alliance is keen to expand to include other nations. Both Japan and South Korea have been mentioned in different media. 

Three weeks ago, this column assessed that New Zealand would soon be subject to a diplomatic push to commit to AUKUS.  This week New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Winston Peters is travelling to Washington with a full schedule of meetings that coincide with important trilateral security meetings between the US, Philippines and Japan. 

Additionally, the Defence Minister, Judith Collins recently had a telephone discussion with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Kurt Campell US Deputy Secretary of State spoke to Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials.  New Zealand plays an important role in the Pacific and its existing ‘5 Eyes’ intelligence relationship means that it is easier to integrate into Pillar 2 of the arrangement than other potential partners. This week, Admiral John C Aquillino, commander of US Pacific forces visited New Zealand.  It is highly likely that the US and Australia would welcome New Zealand participation in the partnership and that AUKUS was a key point of these discussions. 

New Zealand has been exploring its security relationships for some time, the previous government brought the nation into NATO’s International Tailored Partnership Programme. Concurrently, NATO released its 2022 Strategic Concept that announced it saw China as a threat and would expand its area of interest into the Pacific. 

Recently, Foreign Affairs Minister, Winston Peters stated after the NATO Foreign Minister’s meeting in Brussels that “New Zealand is committed to working together with NATO partners to contribute to collective security, such as through our support for Ukraine’s self-defence.” A statement that reinforces New Zealand’s commitment to the alliance as NATO continues to expand its role in the Pacific.

Essentially, the world is evolving rapidly and security and stability are becoming key concerns for all nations. AUKUS is often pitched in main stream New Zealand media in a very negative way.  However, history demonstrates clearly that peace is secured by resolve and the capability to fight.  Military partnerships and alliances are the basis for nations to work together to strengthen their resolve and build their capability to fight, thereby deterring conflict. The US and Australia will be trying encourage New Zealand to join AUKUS and the nation’s government will currently be considering its options very carefully.  It is likely that New Zealand’s position will be clarified sooner, rather than later.  

Tonga’s response to Australian and New Zealand statements about China-Solomon Islands security deal 

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation released a Tongan Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing document that discusses the Kingdom’s position on Australia and New Zealand’s response to the China-Solomon Islands security deal.  In 2022, Australia and New Zealand both lobbied smaller Pacific nations to encourage Solomon Islands not to sign a defence agreement with China. Five weeks ago, this column discussed similar activity in French Polynesia.  The fact that Australia and New Zealand were active in this manner is not surprising.

However, it is important to carefully study Tonga’s response because it highlights a key concern in Pacific geo-politics, the difference between the positions of the larger nations like the US, Australia, New Zealand and the region’s smaller nations.  The US, Australia and New Zealand are the large powers of the South West Pacific and share strong ethnic ties and history.  Part of that history includes colonisation and sometimes brutal treatment of indigenous groups.  For instance, New Zealand’s suppression of the Mau movement in the 1930s or Australia’s support for resource extraction across Melanesia that included training and equipping Papua New Guinea’s military during the war in Bougainville, a war that caused many civilian casualties. 

Additionally, post-colonial era Australia and New Zealand have historically sided with European powers like the UK and US, potentially confirming the perception that the Pacific is still essentially run by foreign powers. Nations focussed on issues that are out of step with the concerns of Pacific nations. Climate change is an immediate, existential threat for many small nations in the Pacific.  A threat that Australia, the US and New Zealand are perceived to prioritise lower than security.  

Hence, many small Pacific nations are likely to have similar views to Tonga that “The views expressed by ANZ [Australia and New Zealand] on the situation in the Solomon Islands that only they (or the Pacific) can decide which countries Pacific states should align themselves with.” Or that “This clearly shows they remain far removed from Pacific realities and only echoes the condescending rhetoric that we, unfortunately, see too often from ANZ leadership.”  

The reactions of many Pacific nations to the announcement of the AUKUS deal provides another example of this disconnect.  The deal clearly seen by many as the ‘old colonial club’ doing what it wants without reference to the concerns of the Pacific’s smaller nations. A perception that puts US, Australian and New Zealand diplomacy on the back foot. 

Acknowledgement of the validity of smaller Pacific nations policy positions and sensitivity to the Pacific’s colonial history is vital for successful engagement and relationship building in the Pacific. 

 

Vietnam and India strengthen defence relationships

India is another actor in the Pacific region and this week we are reviewing some recent interactions it has had with Vietnam.  Both countries are concerned about China, its increasing aggression in the South China Sea threatens maritime trade and both countries share a border with China.  

In 2016 the nations signed a bilateral security agreement and since 2023 this arrangement has seen increased activity. The fourth VINBAX exercise was conducted in 2023 with India deploying ground troops to Vietnam.  Indian ships are also visiting Vietnam more frequently, an important demonstration of partnership and goodwill. In 2023, Indian Navy destroyer INS Delhi and frigate INS Satpura visited the Vietnamese port of Da Nang.  India also gifted Vietnam a corvette. 

India’s role in the Pacific is developing and it is likely that we will see more of this nation’s military deploying east.  It creates an interesting dynamic in the region because India is a near-peer competitor with China and provides smaller states in the region with another potential security partner, as NATO, the US and China compete for influence in the region. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Solomon Islands election

The Solomon Islands election is fast approaching. The election is on 17 August and is especially important because Solomon Islands politics is currently defined by the nation’s security relationships. Sogavare’s government moving closer to China and signing a secret defence agreement between the two nations. Actions that have caused both the US and Australia considerable concern. Solomon Islands relationship with China is an election issue and the election will provide an opportunity to gauge the nation’s support for a closer relationship. 

Fiji drug crime concerns

Fiji is becoming a transit point for drugs like methamphetamine and fentanyl moving from the Americas into lucrative markets in New Zealand and Australia. In January, a shipment of methamphetamine weighing three tonnes was intercepted in Fiji and this year there have been regular reports of large seizures. 

At the recent opening of a Pacific Boarding Training and Search Training Facility in Fiji. The nation’s minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Pio Tikoduadua highlighted his government’s concerns about drug crime in the nation and the wider Pacific.  The Minister also spoke in Parliament this week outlining plans to establish a new drug law enforcement agency. 

 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack